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| Famous last words: "Ow!" |
I give fuck-all about how many people the flu killed last year, FFS.
It has an average annual lethality of 0.1%
For Common Core grads, that means it'll kill maybe 1 person in 1000 who gets it.
Bog-standard coronavirus (like Kung Flu - we hope) kills between 2 and 4% of those who get it. I've averaged that range to the 3%, right in the middle.
For Common Core grads, that means it'll kill 1 person in 33 who gets it.
So, tell me again, using mathematics, WTF I should be more worried about the flu.
Show your work.
The Kung Flu is multiple times easier to catch than the flu, and 30 times as deadly.
So if, e.g., last year in the U.S., with a vaccine every year for decades, flu killed 50,000 people, we can expect Kung Flu, with no vaccine whatsoever, possibly ever, to kill 1,500,000 people. (30 X 50,000 = 1,500,000)
Common Core grads may now take their shoes off for assistance in the mathematical portion of the lesson.
Flu: 50,000
Kung Flu: 1,500,000
One of these is bigger.
Common Core grads may now use one of their lifelines to get a hint which is which.
Flu kills about 1000 people a week.
Kung Flu will kill, on average, 4000 people a day, if it spreads only as well as the flu, and infects as many people as the flu, with "only" a 3% lethality.
Common Core grads may now use one of their remaining lifelines to figure out which one of these is worse.
If it spreads fully nationwide, amidst a U.S. population of 330M, that would amount to almost 10,000,000 people dead.
That's 4X the annual deaths we have every year from all causes, combined.
It's 1918 Spanish Flu territory. It's 10 WWIIs, in one year. It's 200 Vietnam Wars, in 1 year.
So sharpen your pencils, and walk up to the chalkboard, and see if you can tell me when the penny will finally drop for the retard posse.
The problem isn't that coronavirus has "only" killed 17 people, so far. The problem is, it's still throwing warm up pitches. The game isn't even going yet.
Still only means a couple of weeks to a month of feeling crappy for 300M other people who won't die, and worse for another 20M who'll be laid out, and/or needing the ICU. (Best wishes with that, in a country with only 900K hospital beds, and 93K ICU beds, and 60K ventilators. Basically, they're going to get Jack and Squat. And healthcare, as you know it, for everyone, will probably totally pack it in long before that point. You read it here first.)
But maybe it won't kill 1M people or more.
And maybe magical pixies will ride in on flying unicorns, who'll eat all the Kung Flu virus, and poop out magical Healing Brownies throughout the land.
If that's your theory, show your work.
42 comments:
You numbers seem rock solid to me. However, they assume the medical system does not get overloaded. Of course it will, which suggest that a portion of "severe cases" will also prove fatal.
97% of antibiotics come from China and india. So those wont be available either. And antipsychotics too. So lots of crazy people getting crazier. Thought I'd throw that one in for free.
The only way one can properly function in a pandemic is to realize that you are already dead.
Ho! ho! ha! ha! Ho! Ho! Yes, the crazies who can't get their meds from China.
Can anyone point me to a link that would show which meds are actually threatened by supply line disruption? I see all kinds of discussion but no actual list.
I had an idea if worse comes to worse and you have to venture out into a crowded infected population with no mask, I thought I can break out my faceplate and snorkel, rubber band a clorox wipe over the intake, might look funny as hell but I believe it would keep you safe.
Korea seems to have a pretty good handle on controlling widespread infection
schedule1 week ago
Here is something to consider. You are holed up in your second floor condo with all your "prepper" stuff. You are in "community mitigation" lockdown for who knows how long.
It has been a week or more and the sick lady below in her condo has joined choir invisible. Her body has started to bloat and will burst forth all those yummy smelling gases.
Eventually it is going to get really nasty, cue gag reflect. Having a dead, rotting corpse in the unit below.
Then what?
You forgot to mention Samuel L Jackson cursing at the covid and it dying of fright.
It seems the data out of Italy is increasing the death rate. My calculations show 366 dead/7375 infected for a rate of 4.96%. The rest of the world with china in the lead is 3802 dead/109811 infected for a rate of 3.46%. It looks like we will have 15 more dead per thousand.
I would believe the Italian data more than the chinese data.
Joe
China, China, China. Antibiotics, medical raw materials, etc etc.
Here's a question in the back of at least a few folks minds:
Where and how did this Coronavirus escape? All of a sudden there is a total silence on the formerly regular examinations of how it escaped from the Wuhan laboratory. Now, crickets, followed by more crickets.
Silence in itself is a good indication something being hidden.
Any comments?
Aesop-
I have the cure, or at least a way to manage this yucky thing. Let's propose a law to ban the CNV-19. Make it a Felony. Make sure it has to have a NICS completed and a 10 day wait before it can meet someone to infect. And if it want to do so silently, have to complete another form, send in $200 and wait a year for approval, of course after it meets with CLEO approval. The good leaders of Cali should have no problem in kicking it to the gutter as they have such a great track record with the same for 2a, so I figure give a try.
That'll stop it.
'Cause ima member of I DEMAND ACTION.
Maybe bloomberg can shovel a few hundred million to stop it.
Anyone else want to add some before this gets sent off to shannon watts?
-SteveO
Feeling a bit these days like I know how Cassandra was feeling...
"Cassandra, in Greek mythology, Trojan princess who receives the gift of prophecy but is cursed to never be believed."
Too many out there - even electrical and mechanical engineers and managers with Masters degrees and even Phds in science still saying that they are not worried, "the regualar flu kills way more every year than this thing has so far" (pretty much a quote that nearly everyone says).
I get the feeling that most people won't believe it until they see it, and they won't see it until they themselves get really, really sick, or they see people close to them actually die from it.
Or if before that, schools and businesses close and everyone is forced to spend all day at home and enjoy each others' company 24/7 as the news gets worse and worse with no end in sight for how ever long it stretches out to be...
When I try to explain to people to get prepared (4 weeks of canned food at home at least, etc.) one of the things I mention is that I figure it like this:
1st Order effects: The people who get the coronavirus directly and are sick directly.
2nd Order effects: The work that is not getting done because that someone who is sick can't do their job (truck drivers can't drive delivery trucks for instance).
3rd Order effects: The people affected by the people who are not doing their job (stores not getting restocked so stuff is not on store shelves to buy for instance).
4th Order effects: People who did not prepare and now have nothing so their default "plan B" is now to go out and get from those who might have something.
I try to talk to some people long enough and if they are too lazy or stupid to do something they will eventually give what I call the "f**k-off" answer of "Well if something happens, I'll just come vour to your place."
As has been pointed out by someone else, the usual prepper / survivalist mentality of having a lot of guns and ammo is pretty useless when it comes to killing a virus.
However the guns and ammo may very well become very useful in dealing with the downstream effects of the disruption and chaos resulting from the pandemic and it's long term effects. Maybe I should call that 5th order effects?
Laying low in the wilderness for the foreseeable future.
A 27 day (?) incubation period means no control over the spread of this thing. None.
@Kurt9: The number you are looking for is: ALL of them. I work in the pharma industry so let me give you some inside scoop. If the meds themselves are not made in China then most if not all the chemicals need to make the drugs are. Or they this is done in India. Solvents: No chemical reactions w/o solvents and most reactions require specific solvents. Don't have the correct one? Sorry.. no reaction for you! Guess where most are made.
But hey, we *all* wanted cheap (but effective and safe) meds. So production went to 3rd world countries with spots of 1st world capability. However effectively with no OHSA or EPA whose regulations cost time and money. While some are stupid they have cleaned up things pretty good and keep people safe. Most of the cost of drugs are the clinical trials mandated by the FDA for safety and efficacy. If corps could outsource those to China they would. Probably good they don't - look up valsartan recall. Hint: Chinese company was more worried about saving face than making safe drugs.
Well, now you can have the cheapest drugs ever.. no drugs, no cost. At least not in $. Even if KungFlu is 'just the flu' the follow on effects will be a bitch for those who need drugs to survive. Yes, the crazies will be off their meds.
Which brings up another point. If people need drugs to cope with the 'stress' of daily life when things are going well how are they going to fare when normal becomes history? My guess is we'll see an uptick in suicides or self defense killings for those who lose their shit.
This ought to be a lot of fun.
Can't/won't disagree at all. Smart living, washing hands and limiting personal contact is de rigueur going forward... sigh
Yes, people are only considering the case of THEM not feeling well for a week or two and then getting on with their lives. They fail to see the knock on effects and insist that everything is "ridiculous, blown out of proportion". The normalcy bias is strong with these people.
Unfortunately math will only ever tell you the truth no matter how much you don't want to hear it. Buckle up.
Independent of Aesop, pretty much the same information.
https://youtu.be/3etuaYTDwFI
Fast forward to 13:37.
The only numbers anyone can trust at all, are the ex-china numbers. Even then, they are counting places like Iran as if they were accurate.
Country by country, if you are hospitalized with it, you (for values of you) are between 1:3 and 1:2 chance of dying.
Overall, I'm seeing dead/(dead+recovered) of at least 5% maybe 7% depending on the day and the numbers. That's more than 3 and eve 3.4%
nick
(yeah, bigger numerator makes it smaller, and we don't know the numerator even in western countries.)
Your numbers are off because they involve mostly just Chinese and other third world cases. In the US, the death rate is much lower, and the CDC is now putting it between 0.1% and 1% -- and it will likely be even less when the numbers are all done and count estimates of totally asymptomatic infections.
Here's the reason. Diseases like the flu and coronavirus don't usually kill by themselves -- such as through an encephalitis. Instead, they cause debilitation -- you get sick and feel like crap. When you do that, you won't take care of yourself. Mostly you won't get fluids and nutrition, and you'll either die a cardiac death because of electrolyte imbalance, or you will get a superinfection. Some very susceptible people will get a pneumonitis, and if you are 80 years old with emphysema, that may push you over the top. But, if you are not a horribly debilitated person already, you will likely do fine *if* you have somebody taking care of you -- make sure you stay hydrated, etc. and give you antibiotics if you get a superinfection. The classic example of this process is cholera, which has a 50% mortality when the patient is left alone, but a mortality of less than 1% if you keep the patient hydrated and keep the electrolytes in line -- even without antibiotics. Plus, of course, there *are* therapies -- it looks like it responds at least in part to anti-HIV meds, and there will be a vaccine by this fall.
So, look at China, where supportive therapy is to lock the victim in their home and weld the door shut. It's not surprising they are dying at higher numbers. However, in the US, very few people people are dying -- limited essentially to those who are on death's door already. There's a reason that almost all of the US deaths are in nursing homes.
In the end, there will be a very small uptick in deaths overall, because the flu and coronavirus are competing with each other to cause the same deaths in the same vulnerable people. People who die of coronavirus **in the US** are those who would have died of the flu but hadn't gotten it yet. That's why the number of people who died of the flu is important. Because that represents the pool of people who are susceptible to coronavirus *and* flu deaths. Coronavirus will be marginally more virulent, so there will likely be a small uptick, but not the end of the world stuff going around. That's only going to happen in countries with socialized medicine and the accompanying crappy support system.
I remember seeing a list of Aesop's not too long ago referring to my question... I live in a three generation family household of working people. While doing our best to avoid getting sick from CoV-19, we are assuming we might... and will likely not be able to avail ourselves to the future clown-show known as the US healthcare system.
WHAT DO YOU RECOMMEND WE STOCK, OTC AND WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION, FOR IF/WHEN SOMEONE/EVERYONE IN OUR HOUSE GETS CoV-19?
If answered already, can you refer me to the post??
Thanks.
Add on from my request...Here's a previous 2018 post with some good instructions,
https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2018/05/first-aid-medications.html
but now knowing about CoV-19, Does the list change??? I.e., WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT TO HAVE NOW??
The not entirely spelled out part affects Aesop directly - healthcare professionals are the first to go down, as they get repeatedly exposed and PPE is lacking. Available ICU and regular hospital beds mean zilch without the MD, RN, etc. at their stations. As these personnel get sick, more load is placed on those who are still there, the overwork depresses their immune systems and they get sick as well. This is how hospitals go off-line.
A daughter just found out she has Hodgkins lymphoma, and will be going in for chemo soon. I told her to get treated ASAP, cancer treatments and pandemic are not a good combination. Talking to the SIL to see what they need. They have three small children.
Not trying to be a smart-ass here, but isn't there a possibility the death rate is a lot lower than these numbers suggest?
If it's true that a whole lot of people who catch coronavirus have such mild symptoms they assume it's a bad cold, then I'm guessing most of them never make it into the data set at all. So while ~3300 of the 100,000+ confirmed cases are now dead, yielding that 3.3% death rate, the actual number of cases would be a lot higher, and the death rate therefore lower.
Now, even if I'm right, probably there aren't enough cases flying under the radar to make the death rate low enough to be comparable to the annual flu outbreak. But maybe it would militate against your statement that medical care as we know it will be kaput by June-July.
I fully admit that I don't know what I don't know, but it seems reasonable to me that a lot of coronavirus cases are just not showing up.
Anon, think of it as super cold+flu and you won't be too wrong. Stock acetaminophen and ibuprofen (aspirin is contra-indicated). Vitamin C, D and zinc. Cold and flu OTC meds. Hydration mix (Gatorade, pedialyte, etc., a sugar+salt mix if nothing else), diarrhea meds and the like. Have food and water for a month if you can, at least the ability to collect and purify water as water is heavy and we need lots.
Does that help? I'm probably leaving out stuff, sorry.
It is possible the numbers are overstated for all the reasons listed in various posts above. Here is the real question:
Will you bet your life on the numbers being lower?
It boils down to risk assessment and your risk tolerance.
Being, possibly, over prepared is not a bad thing. IF the numbers are not nearly as bad as they appear at this time then some of the non-perishables can be donated and some will eventually be used and reduce future need for shopping trips.
The math debate is OK to have but it is not the only data point. Some key points to also consider are lock downs of 100's of millions of people in 3 different countries. Their respective .gov's didn't do this just for kicks. Especially in China where the state values the life of an individual at likely some negative number.
WRT to increasing the numerator, by identifying more people who have it but don't die, that would give a different number for OVERALL risk, but doesn't really matter.
What we see everywhere is that once it pops up, it spreads. People that get it bad enough to feel sick or otherwise end up tested are the ones that matter. I'm having a hard time putting it into words, but to my mind if you don't even know you were sick, then you aren't sick for the purposes of our count. We could be taking known infected and comparing to population, but then which population when people are traveling internationally, where they got it? or where they'll spread it? Or against their home country? It's moot anyway, because without continuous universal testing we'll never have a good count.
The constant referral to the flu bothers me anyway, because how is that flu infection rate figured, and how is the death rate figured? If I get the flu and don't seek treatment, who would count me? If only people who seek treatment are counted, then we're back to a direct comparison with WuFlu where the numbers only count people who sought treatment and those who got tested for some reason. How many flu deaths are marked down as "old age", heart failure, or some other pre-existing condition and not the flu?
So I'm pretty sure the flu numbers don't have large guesstimates in them, or the same counting issues as the Wuflu.
nick
Sorry, flu numbers probably DO have large fudge factors and guesstimates.
n
What can we do now?
Wash your hands.
Don't touch your face.
Wash your hands.
Stay out of public.
Work from home if you can.
Wash your hands some more.
Delay getting the disease.
Encourage your friends and neighbors to do the same or,
Avoid the Gilligans and Idiots if they won't!!!
Every DAY we can delay people getting COVID-2019 is a small victory!
Every day brings us closer to a vaccine.
Every day gives them time to improve treatment.
Every day brings us closer to Spring, and the end of Flu Season
(If nothing else, the flu won't hide COVID cases.)
Every day gives the slow moving Bureaucrats a chance to get it right.
Every day of delay gives the hospitals a chance to empty a bed for the next ill victim!!!
Every day gives the fuck-ups at CDC more time to unfuck themselves,
And start widespread, intelligent testing.
Test everyone with pneumonia symptoms to start.
Next test everyone with flu symptoms.
Finally, RING TESTING! Everyone that was in contact with a COVID individual.
By the time we are done, many people are going to get tested multiple times.
Delay getting the disease as long as possible.
Get ready to rebuild your part of the economy after it all crashes.
Charles in VA:
You will recall that on January 30 you were highly skeptical about the photos and videos coming out of China concerning the coronavirus were genuine. You asked me:
"How do you know for a fact that there is REALLY widespread panic in China over this?
A couple dozen photos and videos circulated on the internet? Even if true, does "widespread panic" from the uneducated masses in China constitute absolute proof of anything of a scientific nature?"
I said that you should check back with me in a month.
You replied:
"Yeah. I'd be more than happy to check in with you in a month.
In the mean time, you won't see me walking around with a modified car boy duct taped to my head. It ruins my sight picture."
Well, I'm checking back with you now.
One point to make: These “common core grads” did not ask for common core to be rammed down their throats by the boomers who invented it.
Suvivormann99, I do believe Charles in VA was the banhammer candidate #3 Aesop talked about on the blog. I would not expect an answer...
@Gray Man,
Common Core was developed with participation and direction from national teaching organizations and the national academies of science, by anointed idiots from both parties, and any four generations of people with material input.
One of the chief architects and proponents is Berkeley (where else?) mathematician Edward Frenkel, born in 1968 in Mother Russia at the height of the Cold War, now a professor at the University of Communism at Berkeley, and obviously, a Gen-Xer, not a Boomer. It was foisted by people trying to dumb down everyone from here on out, and with some folks, it's a short step downward to utter moronity, starting with any public education in this country since about 1960. When Boomers were then 15, at the oldest. Trying to make this simply a Boomer/Millenial problem is simply revisionist hogwash. You want to try making the split communists/normal people, you'll be on sturdier ground.
Everyone else:
Kindly pay attention, people.
1) Those of you who think "U.S. healthcare" is going to get you rosier coronavirus numbers have already forgotten that that advantage disappears in about three months, and then it's gone forever, and we are Wuhan/Iran/Trashcanistan/Sh*tholia, forever afterwards.
If you're counting on a healthcare system that's going to be crushed like a beer can under a building when it collapses, best wishes with that fantasy. There aren't enough basic supplies (IV kits - from China -, IV bags, tubing, etc. to do the most basic care for a fraction of the 10-30% who'll be really sick or dying if this goes widespread, which it's doing already.
2) Forget being saved by Springtime and warmer weather. This is raging in Singapore, which is tropical year around. And in Oz, which is in late summer now. Weather won't help you, and even getting outdoors won't mitigate when the virus is everywhere, on everything, which point is approaching every day. There are, right now, probably hundreds to thousands of asymptomatic carriers all over this country, spreading Kung Flu like Johnny Appleseed, on crack, and about whom the CDC knows dick.
3) I already covered the point about regular people not getting their life-sustaining prescriptions, and crazy people not getting their meds, in
https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-64-question.html
which was posted here, and at WRSA, yesterday.
10-20% of Americans need their RX meds to stay alive.
25% of Americans are on some version of anti-psychotic, anti-anxiety, or anti-depression med(s).
When those are unobtanium, hilarity ensues, and I was the one you probably read it from first. TPTB will start realizing this about two weeks after nutjobs are rampaging, and people with normally easy-to-treat conditions start dropping too.
You've already been notified.
Telling me what I told you is rather redundant, no?
Carry on.
Oh, one other point:
4) Hoping for a Magic Vaccine may prove futile. If (as is becoming increasingly, bordering on overwhelmingly, likely, this is a bio-engineered frankenvirus that got out of the Wuhan Lab, recent reports and analysis point to it being genetically engineered to resist and thwart any attempts at a vaccine, by several deliberate insertions of DNA from things like SARS, HIV, Ebola, etc.
We started work on an Ebola vaccine in 2013-14, amidst the West African outbreak. We got one in 2018-19, a mere five years later. We still don't have an HIV vaccine, a mere forty years and bazillion$ of dollar$ later. Catch a cluebat on that before it lands upside your head, and stop wishing on a star.
The odds of something appearing this year are probably pretty slim, verging on nil.
You will see this material again, when nothing is forthcoming, and Kung Flu is nonetheless on your block, in the next 60-120 days. And perhaps even sooner, or even already, today.
Carry on.
Read an article recently, morgues in china receiving bodies with tags "pneumonia unknown source", lots and lots of them. Govt requires the numbers to be ramped down, coroners agree. No more testing, problems solved. China data is completely wrong. And their second wave has started, with those trains/planes cancelled again.
Wash state and California healthcare services are on the verge of collapsing already. Dominoes. And then the numbers rise. I hope your optimism turns out to be true, but ...
My mind keeps going back to the fact that these assholes let this creation out of the lab and it's killed people. What else do they have and when is that going to get out into the wild...??
@Anon
Aesop will shoot me down if these homebrews are mistaken
TL'DR: clean rags, bleach, salt, sugar, baking soda
You can make your own home-based Clorox wipes - cut up old shirts, towels etc.from your rag bag. Mix 1/3c Clorox 5-6% (home) bleach + 5 & 1/3c water. AFTER cleaning dirty sufaces, wet rags a w/bleach sol'n.I
DIY PEDIALYTE RECIPE
3 1/2 cups cold water
1/2 cup hot water
1/2 tsp. baking soda (optional – good for upset tummies!)
1/2 teaspoon sea salt or “no salt” substitute (*see note below)
2 tablespoons sugar (don’t use honey as a substitute if your child is under 12 months of age)
1 teaspoon Jell-o powder or Kool Aid (optional) – if using Kool Aid you may need to add more sugar depending on which kind you have.
DIRECTIONS:
Mix all your dry ingredients together in a pitcher. Add hot water to the pitcher and stir until well mixed and dissolved. Add your cold water and stir. This keeps in the refrigerator for up to three days. That’s all there is to it. You may want to also pour some of the liquid into ice trays and put popsicle sticks in them for a treat. Sometimes it’s easier to get a child to lick the ice pop than it is to drink it
CNN's report from today largely confirmed your US medical facility #s:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/health/coronavirus-pandemic-gupta/index.html
"The largest case studies out of China indicate that around 80% of those infected with the coronavirus had symptoms of a bad cold and are expected to recover. Another 14% became severely ill, and 5% percent became critically ill. People in their 70s and 80s were most likely to become severely or critically ill and pre-existing conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, lung disease and hypertension also increased the risk.
"It has been clear for several weeks that this would become a pandemic and now it has," said Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC and current president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives. "Every community in every country needs to prepare so that we can reduce both the health and societal consequences. Some pandemics are only mild or moderate, and it is still not certain how severe this will be, but it is certain that people who are older and medically vulnerable should take steps to distance themselves from others and reduce the risk that they become infected."
According to estimates from the US Department of Health and Human Services that means even with a moderate outbreak, 200,000 people in the United States will need intensive care. The United States has less than 100,000 ICU beds. In a moderate pandemic, 64,000 people are projected to need mechanical ventilation -- breathing machines. The United States is estimated to have only about 62,000 full featured ventilators on hand and an additional 8,900 in the national stockpiled. Given that this is flu season, many of those are already in use. Shifting the dialogue toward pandemic preparedness means we should more directly and completely address these shortfalls."
I'm pretty sure someone at a very low level at CNN poaches this blog, and several others I read.
And I've seen the .gov visit IDs, so I know Uncle drops by rather more than occasionally.
Unreported cases are a factor in ALL infectious diseases including flu. They have the same impact on mortality rates, none. Mortality is based (for all) on deaths per number of confirmed cases.
It equals out.
"Mortality is based (for all) on deaths per number of confirmed cases. "
---so then they are trying to mislead us when they continually talk about how the true death rate is probably less than published, since most cases are mild and go unreported......... which is kinda the point. they are making happygas statements to calm people down and minimize the dangers.
They do it with lawyerly tricks--
"We're not seeing many asymptomatic transmissions" [because the people without symptoms will almost always eventually develop symptoms or had them but didn't recall having them until much prompting.] (CDC when pressed on the issue during a call.) But the reality is that someone NOT SHOWING symptoms currently can if fact spread the virus.
"Most people who get it have very mild symptoms and may not even know they have it" [but when we don't have universal testing, we don't know how many people actually have it, so this statement is pulled entirely out of thin air.]
"80% of people who get it will recover on their own" [meaning 20%, 1 in 5, will have a bad time, and of the 20 out of 100 who are hospitalized, 7 will die, or more depending on the patient and the country.] That doesn't sound as reassuring does it? [and if there is no advanced care available, they will almost ALL die. The chinese were so desperate they did LUNG transplants. And what a huge waste of limited resources THAT was. Or a horrific experiment and chance to try some stuff out. I wonder how many attempts failed?...]
n
CDC and other .govs will prep the battlespace (trial balloons) by making statements and using language to soften the impacts officially, while having unofficial statements to push the ideas forward. The use of "may" in particular in this case means "will" since nothing but draconian isolation seems to stop or slow transmission once it gets started.
From the CDC site, here's an example.
What May Happen
More cases of COVID-19 are likely to be identified in the United States in the coming days, including more instances of community spread. [Likely? what's to stop them?] It’s likely that at some point, widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States will occur.
Widespread transmission of COVID-19 would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time.
Schools, childcare centers, and workplaces, may experience more absenteeism. Mass gatherings may be sparsely attended or postponed. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and sectors of the transportation industry may also be affected. Healthcare providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. [may may may. Substitute WILL and reread....]
At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy. [that is, social distancing, isolation, and quarantine]
--same things Aesop has already shared, except designed to downplay the impact of their words, while his language is chosen to emphasis the impact. They ROUTINELY play the "I told you so" game and refer back to mild or obscure statements when asked "Why didn't you tell us?"
nick
I do think the split between commies and normies might be more accurate, because normies don’t run anything in this country, but it’s also accurate to say that CC is not much of a millennial creation or project at all. Millennials don’t run anything in this country. The boomers still do, and they’ve barely let the Gen X take over anything. If the boomers didn’t want CC to happen, it wasn’t going to, no matter what the millennials and Xers thought about it. I was never taught it, but it’s my kids who would be force fed the shit, if I allowed it.
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