Friday, October 31, 2014
Ebola Growth Rate
New cases per day, October 2014 (WHO numbers via Wikipedia)
Oct. 5= 135
Oct. 7= 149
Oct. 12= 137
Oct. 17= 138
Oct. 24= 196
(With the usual caveat that those are based purely on the "official" numbers, which are probably only 1/3 of the actual numbers, which means we could be getting 700 new cases/day, right now.)
So, tell me...anybody...what Imaginary Ebola Medical Strike Force is ANYONE going to conjure, and with what magic wand waving and incantations, that can deal with 239 to 700 new cases PER DAY, and increasing daily at a similar rate. Nota bene that it was 239/day four days ago, so it's probably 250-750 cases/day today.
If the key to solving the US Ebola problem is by solving it in West Africa, we should all kill ourselves now, because that's never, ever going to happen until this thing has killed somewhere between millions and hundreds of millions of Africans.
Wrap your head around that, as our troops work on creating the equivalent of 24 additional treatment beds/day (1700 beds ./. by 10 weeks work to early December, call it 70 days).
And tell me again why it was ever anything but a futile PR gesture, and a reckless risk of American troops lives on a hopeless mission.
(And BTW, if you're any of those troops' commanders above the rank of colonel, you're a gutless careerist sonofabitch who cares more about his pension than about protecting America or taking care of your troops - every goddamn last one of you, all the way to the 4 service chiefs and the JCS, for not resigning your star(s) if necessary and speaking out on this publicly long before now. Walk tall, you spineless wonders.
The writing is on the wall: Mene mene tekel uparsin.)
Anything we do in West Africa is one of two things: PR pablum, or a holding action, trying desperately to keep an orderly failure and retreat from turning into a full-blown rout.
And that includes all the do-gooder volunteers for every organization there now.
On a humanitarian scale, their individual work is selfless and commendable.
But from a practical standpoint based on results, they're simply pissing on a forest fire, and there aren't enough resources in the world available to make a dent in the problem, and never can or will be. We missed that opportunity somewhere around last May.
So spare me any more delusional rants about how quarantines of returning workers will adversely affect what happens there to any notable degree.
The obvious question is, How could you even tell?