Saturday, September 9, 2017
How Bad It's Liable To Be
So out of disinterested (from 3000 miles away) curiosity about the details, I pulled up a random 7.5 minute topo of Florida's west (Gulf-side) coast, in this case, the Ft. Meyers SW grid.
free pdf online link
Unlike some topos, where the elevation stadia are 40-ft increments, FL's on the USGS map for this region are measured in 5-ft increments.
I knew FL was low-lying, but I didn't know just how low-lying.
We're talking Netherlands-low low-lying. Nawlins 9th Ward low-lying. Damn near Death Valley low-lying.
There is no spot on the entire map topo above 10' over sea level.
(For comparison, here in SoCal, the beachside parking lot, right beside the beach is more than 10' above sea level. The seaside docks inside the the Port of Long Beach/San Pedro breakwater, FFS, are higher than 10' ASL. Where I live, a short drive away, I'm already several hundred feet higher than that, higher than the highest point in the entire state of FL, which is 305 feet, up in the panhandle. In FL, altitude-wise, my avg. daily commute would require a set of wings and a private pilot's license.)
The predicted storm surge for the danger area is currently at least 10'. The total range predicted is 5-20'.
Everything on this map in gray or red is land less than 10' in elevation:
IOW, where most of the people live.
If Irma hugs the western side as forecast, pretty much the entire southern half of the west coast of FL is toast, from Saturday night into Monday afternoon.
And that's just storm surge, before a foot+ (6-20+ inches per NOAA forecast) of continuous rainfall for a day and a half is factored in.
Just a warm up.
Looks like Irma will be biblical.
If you live in FL, I hope a few millions of your friends and neighbors did indeed GTFO.
If not, and you live in Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, or South Carolina, and you have a boat and trailer, you might want to think about heading south early next week, after you stock up.
FL isn't going to need the Cajun Navy.
They're going to need the entire Redneck Fleet.
This is going to make Dunkirk look like a pool party.
God help those people that stayed.