Monday, March 23, 2020

Batter Up












As of today, after about a week of testing, to the point that supplies of tests have been depleted, there are 35,241 Kung Flu cases in the U.S. There are 473 dead.

That's a CFR of 1.3% Not best. Certainly not the worst. But what it is, AFAIK, now.

Minor Problem (relatively):

If 100M people in the U.S. (out of a possible 330M people in the U.S.) get infected, using that CFR, we can expect 1,300,000 dead.
That's yuuuuuugley worse than "just the flu".

Bigger Problem:

If we get that many dead, based on other countries' experience, we can expect that another 5M will need hospitalization, and live.
That's over 5 times more beds than we have, nationwide. (Which is about 900,000, total.)

That crushes healthcare as you know it, if we try to treat this in all hospitals.

If we do that, we're Italy. Times twenty.
And not only do we lose 1.3M to Kung Flu, we lose everybody to everything else that's not normally lethal, until this is over. Because no beds, no hospitals, no doctors, no nurses, no medicine, no nothing.

Last night, two of the senior docs where I was working were discussing why we need to treat Kung Flu patients somewhere else than in the primary medical system.

Like designating someplace else, (like regional hospitals - probably those run by the county/state/etc.) as Kung Flu Treatment Centers. Thus saving all other hospitals for the normal ER patient load in this crisis.

Hmm. What a great idea.

Especially if we implement it before the expected tsunami of serious Kung Flu pneumonia cases swamps us.

Random Data Points:

Data point: Apparently, out of nowhere, the base hospital at a nearby military base was swamped with 100 cases of serious upper respiratory infections and shortness of breath in one night.

That's the second secondhand report (sources for both: coworkers with kin in each facility) I have of a local hospital getting swamped. Out of nowhere. Exactly as was described by the medical workers in those videos out of Italy.
(People with Kung Flu stay home and cope, until they can't cope no more, because full-blown pneumonia.) 
Data point: NYFS is apparently losing more people to Kung Flu per day than Chicago loses to gunfire. Also saw reports that they're running out of ventilators there.
If that's so, this is, yet again, a wee bit more than "just the flu".


Data point: People are idiots. FL finally closed its beaches; this weekend most of SoCal finally did the same, as hordes of jackholes all went there en masse to escape "stay at home" orders from Governor Gabbin' Nuisance.

Data point: National Guard units are starting to pop up here and there, preparing to...what, exactly? Equal time: I haven't seen any activity at the two units nearest me.

Data point: several po-po from different agencies reported that in L.A., TPTB expect another riot, and they are taking steps to head it off quickly. Including with the CA NG.
With ammunition issued from the start, this time.

Data point: After a whole week, people are already chafing under no work, and no leaving the house, and being stuck at home with their own families 24/7...?...
What happens, do you suppose, when they run out of food, or money, or patience, or all three?

What happens if TPTB decide to lift (mostly voluntary) shelter in place orders, just as this thing hits its stride, and hospitals are suddenly packed to the gills with really sick patients?

Alternatively, what happens if this becomes, despite official protestations, a mandatory "Stay your asses at home unless you're absolutely essential to life and limb" quarantine, enforced at bayonet-point, or worse?

Despite recent strip-mining at the local markets, most people still have neither 30 days' food, nor 30 days' cash, on hand at home.

Best Case.
Worst Case.
Most Likely Case.

Capabilities.
Intentions.

This is how you assess What Could Be.

What are your capabilities and intentions?
What are those of the .Gov, at every level?
What are those of Gilligan, and his family?
What are those of the Free Shit Army in your locale, and in general?
Most threats to your existence aren't flying in from deep space, or Washington D.C., they already live with 5 to 20 miles of where you're sitting right now.

If you haven't Culpered the sh*t out of this, best get cracking.


Panic? F**k no.
Take things heart attack-seriously? Hell, yes!

This is not as bad as things can get.
Nowhere near, in fact.
Nor anywhere close to over.

This is barely the first inning.

Me? I've got job security pretty much until I can't work anymore, and a magic get-through-the-roadblock pass.

What I don't got is Castle Anthrax, with walls and moat.

Do what you can, where you are, with what you've got.

And like infantry since Caesar's legions, always be improving your position.
If/Once things get sporty, it's too late to wish you'd done more beforehand.

Tell everyone in comments, without exaggeration, how things are looking better - or worse - where you are.



This isn't an Alex Jones/George Nouri/Black Helicopters/Illuminati doom and gloom party. It's an information exchange.

(For those with Short Attention Span, read the Comments policy to the right.
A case of Terminal Smart-Ass will be terminal to your comment.
Zero fucks given.)

108 comments:

Vitaeus said...

Olympic Peninsula, Washington

been in self isolation for 3 weeks now. 18 confirmed cases so far. This side of the sound is much different from the hive across the water. Schools closed here until at least April 24th. Concerned about what widget will end up breaking a basic service, but gut says that will be April at the earliest. Using this time to see about shoring up any deficiencies. Honestly, took last week off and just spent time thinking and playing with my three kids. Thankful that I still have time to correct any issues. I hope.

Commander_Zero said...

Fairly tame here.. let's see... a couple confirmed cases here in town, schools closed, restaurants closed, the usual items are gone from the shelves, ammo is picked over. But...essential services remain, and from outward appearances all looks normal. No NG units, no increased police presence. However, this is a long way from being over. And thats youre report from western Montana. Or you can check my glog for more details.

MagisterGreen said...

MD just closed "non-essential" businesses and VA closed schools for the rest of the year. Stores seemed somewhat better today - more meat and some general supplies, no canned stuff or paper products to be found. People generally doing the social distance thing, apart from the swarthier set not wearing gloves, or masks, and walking right up to people. Yeesh. I'm not in the immediate vicinity of the free-shit army, but doing what I can to prep nonetheless. No one ill at home, everybody dosing with vitamins as we can, and limiting outdoors to yard and short walks for sun/air. Going to start planting for the summer this week, so there'll be that.

Anonymous said...

Stores are stripped of weird things, limit one per customer, but still civilized. Was speaking with a gas station attendant, he started carrying at work a few days ago. Said people were getting wacky, edgy, impatient. Polity breaking down.

Anonymous said...

No TP in any stores here. Low on any cleaners. Anything disinfectant doesn't exist. Produce was low. Corona Beer is $5 off! I contracted a case this weekend.

Heard from some friends I was teaching to shoot yesterday folks have been getting assaulted and their groceries stolen at a nearby grocery. Friendly people are happy to follow you out to your car to help you with the burden of your purchases.

My work is all but closed. Skeleton crew shows up, the rest are all teleworking. We have a daily teleconference so they know we're all still working for real. They put field latrine-style foot-pump handwashing stations at every building entrance and signs taped to the floor saying to keep 6' apart from everyone.

My neighbor started building a vinyl fence last summer and quit after putting up 50 feet, or so. He's suddenly back at work on it today. He's working that posthole digger now.

I was driving down the highway Saturday and I observed several flatbed trucks with 2-3 hummers each going down the road. Desert camo, up-armored, gun turrets. They were headed East. Not sure where they were headed, but there's an AFB not too far away, so that's a good guess.

My buddy in AZ was almost assaulted over the last bag of burger buns at a Safeway in Scottsdale. Some college kid tried to vault over him to grab the bag as he reached up for the last item in the entire aisle. When he turned, revealing his pistol and knife on his hip, the 'yute backed off.

I'm the only dude wearing a mask when I go out.

Anonymous said...

Jacksonville, FL: Daughter reports stores are strip mined, SIL had to go pretty far afield to find some basics. No eggs, no milk, no meat to be had anywhere. Son in SE FL (north of PB) reports stores are empty as well - customers getting surly with employees. Manager states store will open at 8 am and is strip mined by 10 at latest. Line up at door before store opens. Regional bottler of a well known spirit is working at reduced capacity due to staff beginning to be quarantined out for proximity to positive cases, one of which was navy just returned TDY from Italy, so best guess is Mayport has significant positive cases.

Beginning of March was the first run on any Lysol or Clorex branded products, storees were stripped clean of them. Next was easy to prepare frozen foods - pizzas, hot pockets, the like. Then pastas etc. Then meat. Now fruits, veggies, eggs and dairy not available, or available in limited quantities.
Haven't left the house, except for walks around the neighborhood to get some fresh air and sun since March 14th so can't state first hand situation in stores. Many chain stores are starting to close, fast food restaurants are drive-thru service only.

People are still going to work, not too many people self-isolating. Lots of people out walking dogs, enjoying the park, enjoying the sun.

No power outages, internet outages, water or sewer problems/interruptions so far.

Pharmacist colleague reports run on Rx for available quinine/
zith/tamiflu products, older people are demanding docs write Rx for them "for emergencies" even though they aren't symptomatic. Local drugstores sold out of zinc lozenges, elderberry, etc.


Sorry, no first hand update on the situation in hospitals or clinics here, although daughter was turned away from her scheduled PT appt at a downtown hospital outpt clinic. No regular appts "until further notice".

We are pretty well set up here, and have fortified our infrastructure as much as can be reasonably be accomplished. Condo association here refuses to allow people to buy and use hurricane shutters, so that option as a security measure isn't available, although if things gets spicy, homeowners will do so in defiance of "orders" from the on site manager. Noticed online that many of the items we ordered and stored in Jan/early Feb are sold out with no notice of resupply being available any time soon.
Ammo prices have tripled from prices in January, not sure how much is left.

No word from the local media on the symptomatic Asian crew member who was allowed to disembark from a cruise ship in JAX and wander around. That story has been completely memory holed.

To be honest, it feels like the calm before the storm and all hell is gonna break loose, soon. We're in the outskirts of Jax that used to be majority huwhyte but has become increasingly dieversified which adds to my concern. We've already experienced a daylight home invasion by local yutes kicking the front door in and helping themselves to the plunder. This is considered an upscale "resort-style" community - large fitness center, multiple pools with slides, water park features, etc, soccer fields, biking trails, upscale golf course, multiple "club houses". This will be seen as "prime pickings" when the time comes. On a recent walk around the neighborhood, notice far more signs identified that the home has an active alarm monitoring system, and more people have dogs. Two neighbors on my block just recently adopted shelter dogs. On-site management has closed their offices until April 1st, contract landscapers didn't show up last week for regular maintenance. Pools, fitness center, clubhouses closed.

Cliffdweller said...

You know what is spacious enough to handle hundreds of beds — an airport concourse. Move in, set up and gently ask displaced air carriers to kindly share gates in another concourse. Easy to secure, easy to supply, probably easy to sanitize.

Rollory said...

Shenandoah Valley of VA: traffic is normal. Stores are pretty much normal. Schools have been closed for a week or so now. The local paper is full of cheery chin-up carry-on stories. Downtown is mostly shut down for now.

I've had a very minor sore throat, localized to one side, for the past two weeks. Not enough to cough over. Normally I'd shrug it off. No fever (been checking every day). No loss of sense of smell, which I've read is a common symptom.

Someone else in the house has had a minor (1 degree above normal) fever for the past few days. They probably wouldn't have noticed if they weren't checking every day. Again, normally something to shrug off. We just have no idea if it's anything to worry about.

Either way, we've not been going anywhere. Doing yard work when the weather permits.

Anonymous said...

Even out in the middle of nowhere, dumbphuk neighbor decided to go on an hour and a half drive to the nearest Wallyworld last week, where being surprised so many people were coughing and sneezing decided to come and visit. Luckily we just got a cold.
Next dumbphuk gets ventilated.

It doesn't matter where you are, you are going to be dealing with stupid people who have no idea. Avoid them.

Local town just in the last few days has turned into practically a ghost town. Most here have plenty of fuel/food etc, it's just what we do. I think as a community we'll be fine for several months, but after May it's anyone's guess.

Mudswimmer said...

Charleston SC

With the exception of the FREE SHIT ARMY raiding a WallyWorld, when it opened a hour later than the ARMY thought it should, it is normal around the Low Country. . .

Anonymous said...

Local Army post has shut down the golf course and shooting complex. Most "non-readiness" employees are teleworking. Post is still open to ID card holders. Commissary and Exchange are available to "at risk" folks first, then military in uniform, then others.
No report on grocery stores and others because we bought our hats long ago. I do need to try and pick up a couple of reloading tools but that falls under "improving the position" rather than need - getting around to those bins of brass that have been getting fuller over the years.
We have 51 cases in our county (big land area)and just had a third death. I expect nearly all of those are in the county seat.
Figuring it's gonna get far worse, and planning on hunkering till May at least.
Boat guy

LGC said...

outside of Denver Metro, colorado. (still suburbia, but more like rural residential, but not far from towns/metro)

Was prepared and took this whole thing very seriously (mostly cuz of this site called Raconteur Report). Luckily (or not) got canned like last week of Feb. I told wife to ask at her work what the plan was if this got bad? Not what are we doing, but what's the plan? she got a blank look.

Wife got sick (cold) first week of march and I told her she wasn't going to work that week. By friday (13th) late in the day work finally had a plan (after being totally overcome by events obviously, what exactly is HR for?). she's been working from home (hard I'm surprised) since.

Went to grocery store for first time in 2 weeks last thursday. (mostly cuz wife needed scripts refilled). Went at 7:30am, they opened late at 7am. IT WAS A DAMMED ZOO. a polite zoo, but a total of 4 carts left. Looked like a busy Sat afternoon. paper aisle completely wiped out by 8am, pasta/rice aisle wiped out, bread still there (but not all brands, less selection). i stocked up on junk because I'm well prepped in the basics and if I'm going down, I"m going down happy. Notice the fresh fruit got hammered, but lots of potato's and onions (people are dumb) still available.

Everyone I talk to says "ti's a weird vibe" and it is. It's like we are all on hold. Wondering what's the next shoe to drop.

Just sold a revolver with SD ammo to unprepared lady next door. even though i've told her multiple times over past few years "it's salad days, time to do something" and of course she totally ignored. I got top dollar (tis not charity, stupidity should have a price) and I figure a revolver for nightstand work is about as good as you can without lessons.

Petfood is a problem. I see those getting wiped out too. We ordered (and got) a lot, but we're still cranking thru it. ordered more and they are backed up, but that's ok that's why we have lots and plan ahead

Anonymous said...

Central WA state - Yakima Valley.

Base functionality okay.

Stores generally stripped of paper goods, bleach, peroxide, rubbing alcohol, dry rice/bean meals, bagged rice, canned/dry beans, pasta, sauces and soups.

Checkout lanes re-designed to keep people 6 ft (minimum) away from each other.

Smaller service businesses starting to limit persons inside. Restaurants still open (few) are delivery only. Expecting to see some smaller service biz close by early April - boarding kennels/doggy daycare are just one example as they made their monthly nut on boarding not ancillary services. Anyone else dependent upon a traveling public also hosed.

Schools, library system shut for 2 weeks minimum. "Shelter in place" now ordered for anyone not in an essential industry.

As one might expect, traffic is way down.

Mary said...

Bozeman, MT
Local hospital has reached out to the local quilt guild asking them to sew surgical masks. They have a pocket to put some kind of filter material in and they are washable. 61 were donated the other day. Unfortunately they call for 1/4 inch elastic. All the local stores are now out of elastic and their distributors are out of elastic. Back on Feb 10 there was a story "Bozeman women send medical supplies to Chinese hospital". They cleaned out all the stores in the area to send thousands of masks, gloves and goggles to China! Huge U-Haul shipping boxes. Bet the locals are wishing they still had these resources. 10 cases in the county with community spread.
https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-news/bozeman-women-send-medical-supplies-to-chinese-hospital

Mary

Stefan said...

Sitrep from Upper Franconia, Germany. Streets deserted. Vehicular traffic about 5-10% of normal. Drugstore has crates stacked in front of checkouts and signs limiting approach between people to 2m...impossible, and they look at you funny when you do, and when you give as close to exact change and refuse anything hand-hand.

What part of Operation Ghost-town hasn't penetrated skulls? Too busy with Netflix to research? Or do folks want the next escalation, involving humourless green men and tents in soccer stadiums with lots of new bewildered friends?

My habit even pre-Wuflu was to carry a golf size Unbreakable Umbrella, in case one of Merkel's Ersatz Germans got a sudden case of Jihad Syndrome with an edged implement...handily, at full extent it gives 1.5m from shoulder to tip. Most folks aren't sticking to mandatory distance. It also comes in handy to open doors, push lift buttons.

As I live in a 96-apartment building, hotspots are the lifts, and every doorhandle. Aerosol 3hrs, copper 4hrs, cardboard 24hrs, plastics 3 days, glass up to 9 days. So, eyegoggles and N100 halfmask, disinfect hands immediately when clear of building/shops/atm's. Disinfect brolly handle. Using 75% Ethyl alc. Must put doorkey on stout chain hooked on belt...fumbling in pocket invites a bring-back. Not quite Tyvek-time, but will set up front hall as soft de-con lock. Too much? Not enough? Good exercise for the next episode.

Endtimes = war, rumours of war, pestilence, earthquakes....like labour pains, faster and faster. And then, they come for the Christians, because we march to another drummer.

RandyGC said...

Ohio: Gov (actually Dept. of Health) issued stay at home order, but list of exceptions for critical businesses is pretty extensive (transportation related, food related, medical, even gun stores).

I had to make 2 shopping trips last week (second one timing due to when the insurance would pay for a refill). Some restocking. Hamburger back (limit 2 packs). Some liquid soap refills. Fresh fruit and veggies back on shelves. Frozen food pretty good stock (except pizzas). Bottled water good on Friday, more limited on Sunday.

Basically I think a lot of this is more a re-supply issue rather than a continuing run.

Paper still pretty cleaned out and when they have them limit of 2 units. Will make a note to check the ammo aisle this week (although they never do have a great selection/quantity).

Last Friday morning some lines (black x's taped on floors leading to cashiers marking 6ft distancing). Sunday morning about normal amount of people.

Basically my shopping is to keep stocks topped off, and so far no problems. If something is not there the first day it's there the other, sometimes have to get a non preferred brand.

People have been polite and in good humor. One lady noticed that the liquor was well stocked and there had been no run on it. One vendor told me to meet him at the back in a few minutes to get my desired brand of hamburger buns when he rolled out the next rack. No local reports of fights or other disturbances.

Governor has activated about 300 NG folks; basically working logistics including assisting food banks with food delivery. Governor has stated explicitly many times that they are NOT intended for enforcement duties, that will be handled by local LE.

Quail said...

Hour east of Frisco.
Suburbia quiet. Most of the dog walkers have stopped clustering in tight, chatty groups over the last few days. Asians still walking and spitting on the sidewalk and street so I am not about to walk my dog anywhere. Occasional teens wandering in small groups- some gangs around here but so far seem to be staying indoors.

The few times I have gone out I've seen few to no masks or gloves, even at the local clinic. People seem tense.

Several cases in the neighboring cities and 15 first responders exposed so far. Local city council is meeting in person tonight at a public forum ignoring the shelter in place and no more than 10 people limit. Maybe they will catch KungFlu and bother us no more.

Oh, and the subject of the meeting? KungFlu.

Anonymous said...

Macomb County, Mi. Stores shelves are sparse, some canned goods left. Meat, eggs, milk,cheese, and bread are available. No paper products or cleaning supplies. Starting to notice some "tension" among my fellow citizens. Our Governor issued a "stay at home" order beginning tonight. My main concern is Detroit. The Detroit Police Department has 5+ officers with the Virus, and 200+ quarantined. A lot of them were from the same precinct (the 9th), which covers one of the most violent areas of the city. The Chief said he has contingency plans for staffing. The Detroit Public Schools cancelled giving away free meals. They could not get their story straight as to why. FIrst it was because of the "stay at home" order issued today, but had to backtrack on that, then it was staffing issues, and then it was some workers were "sick". WTH??? Here is a free meal with a side of virus??? Waiting on the actual news to come out why meals were stopped. AESOP, thanks for what you do.
L. Spooner

TwoBuckChuck said...

Checking in from Lawn Guyland, Noo Yawk.

Were it not for the eerily quiet morning on the roads and some depleted shelves at the Big Box, I'd say it just looks like spring break around here. Kids never played outside in my little burg, anyway (the outlets are all indoors, silly!) No road blocks or restrictions yet, but my bride put out a memo to the entire staff yesterday at her facility to carry badges at all times when away from home. The fear is that TPTB may implement some sort of double secret probation thingy at any moment without announcing it too loudly, and she was woefully short-staffed on nurses and aides before it became fashionable.

My employer booted us all out the door a week and a half ago, insisting that we work from home until further notice. Two people in my group tested pos for WaHu flu late last week. According to a recent mass mailing, those who worked in close contact with them were kindly notified that their number is up. I received no such harbinger of doom, so I think I am clear. For now.

Pantries are locked and loaded, friends and relatives told to stay the eff away and a steely eye trained on strangers passing through. This being Noo Yawk, I am permitted nothing more lethal than a sharpened spork with which to defend us and our castle (I couldn't get a pistol permit here if I begged, threatened or bribed, because...reasons. Ancient, foolish reasons that will haunt me to my last day in this God-forsaken liberal paradise).

Upside? Jury duty postponed. And Uncle Sam is going to have to wait until midnight, July 14th to pick my pocket for the rest of what I haven't already given the greedy bahstid.

Anonymous said...

Lake county Florida neighborhood full of covidiots, stay at home by the bored housewife s are out chatting of course some still going to work or like my brother in law to the pool store, morons. My nephew who works/worked at Target store in South lake was told not to wear masks.because it would frighten the customers an he decided to stay home with his wife and give kods. She worked On line kids home schooled so no problema. Just because he came down with a high fever and respiratory problems went to get tested they checked for strepp, not that checked for H1 flu not that told he he had a virtual infection and walking pneumonia but they would not test him for kungflu because he did not require hospitalization at that point so off to home and self isolate from.the family. The thing is he never goes anywhere but work and home. Since work is a Target store you would think that would be a.problem of he got it there Dirk g the panic buying madness. Then maybe that is a reason he was not tested

Nahanni said...

Austin, TX area here.

+Haven't been to a store since March 1st when I bought another 2k rounds of ammo. Knew this was coming back in mid January thanks to Aesop, ZeroHedge & Dr. John Campbell on YouTube and had EVERYTHING ready to go by Feb. 20th. My family with the exception of my Covidiot nephew listened to me and are prepared as much as possible -- prescriptions for them are a problem because the pharmacies only gave them half of what they're supposed to get.
The pharmacies (semi rural area) are running out and rationing. They don't know when they'll get more.

Have driven by the local supermarket to see what's going on. Parking lot full at 6AM, store opens at 8AM. That told me all I needed to know about that.

Have heard whiny reports from my Covidiot "It's just the flu, I'm going to get a tattoo!" nephew that there's no groceries in the store, he's running out of TP, etc. with the unspoken hint that I should give him some of mine. I told him to talk to his mother.

+Like you, Aesop, I work in what is considered an "essential service". All who can work at home are doing so, those who can't are being separated as much as possible and moved to separate sites. In my case they can't move my work out of the building for reasons too long to explain so I'm the only one in a 5 story building.

+Driving to work at 8PM is like driving at 3AM. Very few cars on I-35 and very few semis. Downtown is absolutely dead. I do see some people out walking their dogs or riding bikes -- all maintaining appropriate distance.

+We are having some problems with one family member (outside of the Covidiot nephew-when it comes to him we're at the "can't fix stupid" stage).

She is incredibly depressed, angry, and refuses to speak to me (her sister), her daughter or her wife because we're not agreeing with her. We're hoping she'll pull out of it.

Crash and (hopefully) rebuild said...

Northern beaches of North Carolina:
County is closed to visitors and (most) non-resident home owners.
Our stores were stripped early on by out-of-towners hoping to shelter here or take chit back north of Norfolk/VA Beach, Richmond, DelMarVA, Penn, NY for fun and profit.
We're the ass-end of the supply chain but used to being cut off on the islands with limited access up our way.
Our ethnic diversity is concentrated at the Walmart with peeps from inland making up the majority of the workforce.
Idiots try to walk out of almost all the stores on a regular basis but keep getting busted - Hello - peninsul/islands/swamps induhvidual roads/bridges on/off.
Most people that have lived through multiple storms are familiar with pickers, scammers, thieves, etc...
Try to be good to all, spend a fair amount of time outdoors, usual cross between bone-heads that think nuff'n is diffr'n, the extremely paranoid and the folks that have to get along between (cancer and elderly in the house - don't have much choice in being exposed but try to be as sensible as can be).
Liquor stores still open but business has collapsed - if you aren't up and running by now you're broke if not out of business by fall when the storms roll in so fuhgiddaboutit.
Our population spread out over 70 miles is the rounding error of the over registration on the voter rolls in our cities - going to be fishing and gardening so we're just resigned to it.
Our hospital is a great place to get stabilized before you're sent off for care so if chit pops up here, again, fuhgiddaboutit.
Everyone knows it, everyone is pretty level headed about it and we're all either inventorying everything we've got, loading what we can, prepping the gardens and praying for surf and fish.
Can't even get the kids down here now (though we can arrange it if things get truly feral on the mainland if they can get to the sound on the mainland side - still have smugglers and pirates even to this day but polite not to talk of it).
That's it.
Prayers for you and yours.

Jonathan H said...

Eastern Ohio.
Stores that were out of paper products now have some in stock. Noticed today that flour was gone in multiple stores, but there was plenty of sugar...

Stores are about usual level of busyness, no problems noted.

Governor issued a stay at home order with so many holes it is laughable.

There supposedly 2 cases in another part of my county, a 60+ couple that traveled recently.

Note: Anybody with federal government or military ID should get a copy of the US Attorney General's letter exempting them from local and state restrictions

Deathray said...

There you go doing what you do best. Thank you!

I was seriously considering a much different reply until you posted this.

Read a response you posted on another site and, although I was in agreement with you I was going to say it was a waste of energy.

Everyone won't agree with you. ( they don't have to ).

Your regulars that come here do so for a reason and this post is the reasn.

We all have some big decisions to make and clear concise information helps people understand the situation.

Don't waste your time or energy trying to prove a point to anyone who wants to disagree with you.

Thanks again for what you give all of us here and, at your job.

Please stay safe and strong. And, may we find some good in this unknown and difficult time. PEACE MY FRIEND

Bee Ess said...

North Georgia, small town in a larger county. Only one grocery store local (wal-mart), others are 15 mins away. Limit 2 on fresh meat, limit 2 on ANY cleaning supplies. Most desirable goods are gone. Restocking happens but cleaned out immediately.
So far, have only seen 1 person in a N95 mask and after about 10 minutes in the store, he had removed it.
All restaurants are curbside service only. All "entertainment" type venues closed. Curfew starts thursday 9-5am. ALL gatherings 10+ banned, public or private. If someone throws a house party, the cops will be all over it.

Maverick said...

North Seattle area: Local Costcos have lines around the building all day most days, limited numbers allowed inside at one time. Local restaurants closed down or only doing delivery. Nearest supermarkets out of the usual paper products and some canned goods but otherwise doing OK. Beer well stocked but this is the Northwest and living without IPAs using Yakima, WA hops would be blasphemy. :)

Schools here have been out for 3 weeks already, not opening until at least April 27. Initial remote learning experiment canceled because of inability to deliver a hot free lunch to each individual child on the free lunch program, so basically the vast bulk of kids get no continuing education because no federal money goes to schools if they cannot meet every single required service to every student every time.

Traffic has been very low since early March as expected. I've not heard of any uptick in crime (e.g. home breakins by the FSA that someone else above was talking about) but then again the local police blotter has been MIA for a long time and aggregate statistics come out only once in awhile.

Eerie feeling generally, people are tense/worried/faking-it-til-they-make-it.

Hawkin'Gal said...

Michigan's "stay at home" order was just announced and goes into effect at midnight. Supposed to last at least until April 14. There's enough "essential worker" exceptions to fill Lake Superior--Menard's, Lowe's, Home Depot and all hardware stores, even my job--in-home autism therapy, has an exemption! I quit doing that ten days ago, but the company, Centria, keeps sending me "guidelines" on how I can keep "safely" going to people's houses and providing services.

Per my parent's subdivision's (just west of Detroit) Facebook page: No paper goods in stores. Meat, bread, dairy, soups, rice, flour, even yeast, often gone or in short supply. People are mostly observing social distancing in stores and while outside walking dogs. Lots of FB posts of people putting together gift baskets for health care workers and shopping for elderly.

Area clinics are asking for the public to sew masks, but finding elastic appears to be a problem.

Detroit police are reporting 8 officers positive for Covid-19, 233 officers in self-quarantine. They say they may need to ask the State Police for assistance.

Gardening supplies, alcohol, and chocolate still reasonably well stocked! However, in my more exurban area, some feed stores are out of wood shavings, used for horse bedding, and we've been warned it may not be available for a while. Luckily, it's starting to warm up so Plan B for my Tiny House toilet is not so uncomfortable...

horsewithnonick said...

81 cases in the state, with 29 of them in my county; things really started to hit the fan here on March 11, and I've been working from home since last Wednesday. The city is largely shut down, with bars closed and restaurants on drive-thru/takeout only, and many businesses closed or open reduced hours.
A friend works in the pharmacy of a local hospital, but has been off work for the last week; I expect we will get an earful from her after she goes back on Wednesday.

Anonymous said...

Philly Western 'burbs, here...PA governor issued a mandatory stay at home effective tonight (I thought that's what we had been doing for the past week, but I guess was not mandatory enough). Local supermarket has stock, of course minus all paper goods, but it is quite noticeable to see what is missing. Went to a members only big box store a few days ago. Not cleaned out entirely, but quite evident that much was missing. Staff did a heroic job of spreading stuff around the cases and freezers so as not to have completely empty ones. No chicken (except rotisseries), beef was expensive, but got a great deal on inch thick pork chops. Neighbors out walking if weather permits, however I noticed that few are talkative, even when I stand 8-10 feet away to engage them.

Son (US Army) told me he found 200 rolls of TP in a forgotten corner of his building. Clamped a TS designation on it and secured it immediately. The new gold!

PBR said...

Teton Valley, Idaho

Doesn’t seem to be that bad here compared to what I’m reading about in other areas. Grocery stores are still pretty well stocked except for the now usual paper and cleaning items. Folks are concerned but still very civil and helpful to each other. No bad behavior that I’ve seen or heard of. Since the ski resorts closed early we’re in what amounts to the shoulder season when things quiet down anyways. Bars and restaurants are closed except for carry out. Some of them close this time of year anyways. There are folks here with second homes coming in to ride things out. Overall things are quieter than usual but no one’s panicking or misbehaving. I attribute it to small town type neighborliness and what Heinlein said about armed societies being a polite society.

horsewithnonick said...

Oh yeah, we're in Oklahoma County, OK.

NJDave said...

NJ schools closed until further notice, all "non-essential" retail closed (including FFL / ranges (NJ NICS shutdown as well)), liquor / weed stores considered essential though. Releasing about 1000 "non violent" from prison, stores are alternating between stocked and cleaned out depending on item. Haven't been frequenting any retail establishments, stocked up a little bit before hand and have been getting online delivery when possible (some windows are a week out). People keeping their distance when out walking in the neighborhood. Roads are fairly empty on the occasional day I go to the office. Mostly working from home, but we are considered an essential business and I have to go in from time to time to support production.

Would be fairly set at home for a while except my wife is due with baby number two in mid April, so not looking forward to that hospital visit. Fortunately the hospital we are delivering at has their labor and delivery unit in a separate wing, so hopefully it will be somewhat isolate from the chaos (at least that's what I'm telling myself).

Stefan said...

"faking-it-til-they-make-it."

Succinct.

In the meantime real people die, the last crumbs of freedom are crushed and blown away, our jobs and customers and suppliers vanish, and one learns in real time "How To Really Prepare", while in the background the subroutines run: "Maybe I Better Get My Shit Together Finally", "This Is Serious But Not Really Really", "What Would Happen If It Really Were Teh Dredd E", "Oh Shit v1.2", "Rice & Sardines SUCK In Whatever Combination After 27 Rep's", "Should'a Bought Da Yaesu VX6R Last Month 'Steada Drinkin", "Whodafurk Livvin Nexta Me"...etc. So when Numbnuts looks at you funny for mask and on the spot decon and keep distance....fuck em (in full bodycondom and a lick'o'flame). Want Operation Ghost Town over quick? Or want it around until late Summer 2021 if we get that far, what with no economy and logistics forked? As for the idiots coughing on produce....attempted murder, treat as appropriate keeping in mind droplet procedures.

paladin3001 said...

Ontario Canada checking in. Premier has just issued an emergency order to close all non-essential businesses as of midnight tomorrow. Idiots are out in full force now. Figured I should stock up on alcohol and the local beer store had a full parking lot.
I work in a grocery store so I won't be getting a vacation anytime soon, unless I catch the Kung-Flu. We've been out of paper products for almost two weeks now. Can't keep it on the shelves. Flour is just gone from most grocery stores. Pasta, canned goods, likewise.
Fortunately, I have been prepping for something like this for awhile. Just needed to grab extended stocks when the first shut downs happened.
Had to drive to the big city yesterday for family reasons. Usually a three and a half hour trip there and back. Yesterday I was able to get down, deal with family business and get home in under three hours. Yes there was traffic, but it wasn't stupid crazy like it usually is.

I just want all the stupidity to stop. I've been working six day weeks and working hard. There's going to be no break until things get resolved or things collapse. Whichever comes first now.

FredLewers said...

Small town on I-20 in east Texas.
One local Brookshires grocery store. It's picked clean. Wife stated that the normal sale items aren't on sale. A lot of items are limited to one per family. You can't get A bottle of isopropyl alcohol for love or money around here. TP and paper goods are also non existent. A lot of legal and illegal immigrants live and work here. Minimal other POC. Our problem demographic is local white trash. They're keeping their heads down though. traffic is way down. A lot of people are staying in. An unusually wet spring has something to do with it.
My best friend and his wife are sick. He's an OTR truck driver and she works for a major hospital in their outpatient clinic. It's probably kung flu...
The fecal matter has impacted the air circulation appliance. It's still in the air. I'm personally hoping for complete global collapse just because I KNOW TPTB won't let go of their newly discovered authority willingly. jjs.

Anonymous said...

Vancouver, BC - largest centre of infection in Canada as of now. Until a couple of days ago, testing was non existent, like others have said. Literally unless you were in resp distress AND at a hospital you wouldn't get tested or treated. That's changing, so I expect the numbers to sky rocket considering our population base.

No real appreciation of this in much of the gen pop. Local beauty spots were so packed on Saturday that they had to get shut down. No idea how the stores are doing - lots are shut down i'm hearing. Local bike shop was allowing customers on a 1-1 basis if they gloved up, and social distanced while in store. No trying stuff on or touching, just buy it and leave. They ran out of gloves halfway through the second day, so they're closed now.

We've been ordering groceries on line for pick up for 1 1/2 years now. Usually it's a 24h window before a pickup time is available. Now it's 10 days. We got almost everything that we ordered - we're stocked on the basics - mostly fresh fruit and veg.

Anonymous said...

CO
Back from a run to get reloading tools. Big-box chain store regulating numbers going in. Store did not have what I needed. Did a quick cruise through the ammo; more than they had last week in some cases - bulk pack .38 Spl range ammo. Defensive ammo? Nah unless you are looking for .454 Casul.People looking at guns and apparently picking them up. No idea on the wait times for NICS.
Interestingly they did have bulk pack 7.62x51 in either 500- or 1000-round loose pack. Store is limiting ammo purchases to 2 boxes per. Briefly considered the x51 but don't have anyplace to put it. "We already have our hats, dear"
Went to the biggest gun store in the area; a place friends were telling me about over a decade ago before I moved here. A goodly number of empty spaces on the EBR wall. Saw 4-5 folks filling out 4473's. Several women looking at handguns. More people looking at guns and apparently picking them up. One gal running NICS checks on computer with a classic wire "in-basket" into which the folks were dropping the 4473's.
This place was picked clean during the ObaMao panics; nothing like that now. Folks mostly distancing.
That's the news, sorta; wasn't going to linger all that much. I did make a quick pass at the used case; nothing compelling (good thing, no telling how long those NICS checks are gonna take and I'd like to limit my exposure). Wiped down the car controls and my purchases before coming into the house.
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

Rural Iowa here.

Traffic light and grocery stores stocked except for bread/paper products.

Broke my 5th metatarsal a couple of weeks ago and my follow-up with the ortho surgeon was cancelled. No biggie as the surgeon thought I wouldn't need surgery.

On a more ominous note, tried to refill my Breo Ellipita inhaler and was told there was none available in the system. I'm good through the end of May and then we will see what we see.

Anon

Anonymous said...

Central Kentucky

Our governor (D) has been more aggressive in shutting shit down than some of our neighboring states, particularly those with (R) governors. Schools were closed earlier than in surrounding states, businesses and social gatherings have been ratched down day by day. We're now at the point that all non- essential businesses are to close at 8 PM Monday night. The list of exempt businesses is pretty long, however. Restaurants have been pick up or delivery only for the last two weeks and most are still open.

The next step would be a "stay at home" lockdown like California, NY, and Illinois. The Gov is giving his daily 1700 news briefing and we're not there... yet.

As far as life goes: The stores are still pretty well supplied for now. The big panic run was two weekends ago, near as I can tell. Went to Kroger this afternoon. Still no toilet paper, but they had tissues and paper towels again. I didn't bother looking for hand sanitizer. Figure it's still out of stock.

As for basics, there were plenty of milk, bread, eggs. They had some sugar and a little bit of flour. Canned goods were okay. They also had bananas for the first time in two weeks.

I had been a half- assed prepper, mostly guns, ammo, and basic medical supplies before this. Reading this blog convinced me to lay in food supplies about two weeks before the shortages started. I managed to put aside about two months worth of canned/ dried food for five (wife, kid, me, my parents) at my parents' farm and then fully stocked our freezer and pantry. Got 90 days extra of our maintenance meds a week ago. Already had plenty of ammo, so no worries there. When I went to Cabela's and Sportsman's Wearhouse last week, they were out of 9mm, .45 and 5.56 multi packs, but had multipacks of .40, .22 lr, and 12 gauge. Don't know what it's like today.

If this does end up being TEOTWAWKI, it surely won't be enough. If it's not TEOTWAWKI, then I've become a believer and, God willing, will have a multi- year stash before the next one.

Anonymous said...

Missouri. Larger urban areas have gone to mandatory "stay at home" with a lot of exceptions. My rural area is still just recommended. Stores have marks on the floor for 6 ft spacing. A couple have put up plexiglass "sneeze shields" for their cashiers.
No masks available, so almost no one is wearing them. In fact Local health agencies are asking for mask donations.
Local grocery is limited quantities. Out of milk, potatoes, flour, sugar, eggs, bread, and toilet paper. Groceries have gone to reduced hrs for "restocking and cleaning"
We always have some food stocked, and added some items thanks to Aesop's early warnings.

Anonymous said...

South Central Oregon here (BFE central). We've had two official cases of Kung Flu so far, but the only hospital in the county is gearing up for a major hit. A couple new tents by the ER, officially to expand capacity, but I'm guessing triage. The flu-test center is being moved from a disused building to something where people can spread out more.

I got groceries on March 10, and went to the hospital complex 3/14 to get tested for flu. Negative for -A and -B, but I've heard from others on the 'net that similar cases are going around. My wife got it from me, and she's running a week late. I'm still hacking a bit, but it's steady, fuckall slow improvement. (Oh yeah, fever spiked at 102F, difficulty breathing. I tick several of the risk boxes, and even "it's just the flu" could put me in serious shit.)

Phoned the neighbors yesterday. One went in Sunday; no paper, no meat, good quantity of produce. We keep a good stash of food, and can keep the freezer cold indefinitely, so while the menu might get boring, we should be OK.

The governor did a closure order, effective 12:01 AM tomorrow. She shocked me by not taking the worst of Nuisance's ideas; places to be closed are where crowding is part of the deal. No barber shops, gyms, playgrounds, and sports centers. Gunshops and liquor stores open, so the looters might have to work harder. If the virus situation hits us hard, there's a bigass sports complex a couple miles from the hospital. Oh yeah, the closure order is open ended.

Once I feel up to it, I'm going to look for produce, eggs and yogurt. I'll be wearing at least a surgical mask, and carrying something appropriate. (1911, I think.)

RCPete

tweell said...

Phoenix, AZ. Restaurants open only drive-through, entertainment shut down. Traffic way down. Stores fairly stripped, but starting to get stuff back in, purchases are limited. For the most part, folks are behaving and in decent spirits. The same folks are begging in the same spots, at least for now. Neighborhood online forum offering help and supplies, notes of which stores have stock. State agencies are supposed to be still open, but have been seeing reports of closed MVD offices and the like, folks just aren't coming in. Haven't checked firearm stores, don't plan to.

Ominous Cowherd said...

Note: Anybody with federal government or military ID should get a copy of the US Attorney General's letter exempting them from local and state restrictions.
Can you give us a link?

Charles in VA said...

In my neighborhood...out in the country...people are mostly keeping their calm. I see some stupid shit going on like heavy traffic in the county park (completely unnecessary and foolish).

Traffic on the US Highway is still normal looking. No noticeable decline in volume. Haven't seen NG hardware in the area, but rumors of it in the major cities like Baltimore, etc.

I'm sitting here with a broken tibia in an immobilizer from an auto wreck two weeks ago. Took a secondary fall and now have a broken rib 4 in. from the spine. Feeling pretty vulnerable at the moment due to my lack of mobility.

My social support network has checked in and offered support, but I'm not playing that card yet. Food, water, shelter, meds and ammo supplies all look good for me so far. It's the local Gilligans that concern me most.

Ned2 said...

What PBR said. I'm close, same here.

Smoker78 said...

Brother,

Squid here who doubles as a baker at a major grocery store in the Virginia Beach area. Not much sickness yet, but panic buying is up. I think we have spotters in the store. When the meat truck arrived the other evening the store was pretty quiet. No sooner than the meat dept. started restocking the shelves, at least 200 people bumrushed the store and went directly to meat. Insane. I’ve had people with tears in their eyes thank me for having pretty expensive bread because most places don’t have any. Ours is expensive because we make a lot of it right there in the store. My sailor’s Popeye arms are out to work each day kneading, rolling, rounding and tucking various breads. Anyhow, I’m an older guy with a 2 year old who loves to be outside. Now that the aquarium and zoo are closed, and all of the playgrounds in military housing is closed, and no major woods( like my old station in the PAC Norwest) I’m constantly trying to find activities that will satisfy her hunger for nature. Otherwise, most people are optimistic but cautious. I’ve seen people with bra cups on their faces like that’s going to do something, and also wearing latex gloves but holding their phone or touching their face like the gloves are a defend all. I want to say something but I’m not allowed to at work. When I see ladies and gents come I with scrubs, I hand them a coupon for a free meal. Our truckers are getting similar treatment and everyone in the store is getting an extra 2 bucks an hour.

Schools are closed for the remainder of the school years, non essential businesses are closed, .mil is carrying on the mission but at reduced capacity. I know, I go in twice a week to keep distance from my shipmates. (Shore duty).
Otherwise that’s it from the 757. Stay strong, stay healthy, stay safe. God Bless
-smoker

Anonymous said...

From Nations Oldest City.........
Wife is retired first responder and I’m former LEO (now an embalmer).
We both have commented that folks are in a hurricane fog! That’s a condition which occurs pre-hurricanes, when everybody loses their shit and preps like hell and then waits, sometimes for days on end for the big blow! Most folks don’t do well in extended “condition red”. That’s what we’re seeing.
Stores are somewhat stripped of obvious things. We are still in the “loop” and have been advised by those we trust to prep for an extended time, ( a non issue for us).
It’s a tourist city, lots and lots of folks are without work, expensive rent or mortgages.... They are stressed and it shows both on the streets, stores and social media.
I’ve been in riots and post hurricane relief efforts. It’s starting to feel “tense”.
On a different note, the death rate has not increased. This time of year, always have a spike due to flu/pneumonia cases.
Y’all stay safe, wash your hands. I suspect this is just the beginning....🙏

nick flandrey said...

West side of houston.

Spent the afternoon doing stuff I should have done weeks ago. went out to lowes, HD, and the post office. I had arranged for a porch pickup of my ebay sales, but missed it with two boxes. So I had to go in to the store. I wore gloves, kept my distance. Held the door for the one other customer so she didn't have to touch it. Clerks reiterated that they get no gloves, masks, etc, and haven't been doing any extra sanitizing. Route carrier was buying his own gloves, so I dropped a box on him. Avoid the PO if you can. There was a sign about social distancing on the door.

At HD, I only went into the outdoor garden area. Picked up dirt, so I can get more food in the ground. Wore gloves, kept my distance. Was $2.13 short on my gift card so had to break a $20. REALLY didn't want to handle the change, folded it into my receipt, and it's isolated now for 24 hours.

At Lowes, in the upscale neighborhood, signs about 6 ft distance, marks on the floor at the cash registers. Few shoppers, most wearing gloves. Some masks. Had to go in and get stuff for a security project here that I should have done months ago. The one thing I needed they were out of. Bought the other stuff on my list 'cuz I was already there.

Lowe's had 2 pallets of extra strength bleach in the POOL SUPPLIES. NOT anything with biocide mildewcide or algeacide, just straight up 10% bleach. Basically untouched from a couple of weeks ago. Plenty there so I got a case of 3 gallons to add to the pile.

IF YOU STILL NEED disinfectant/viricide cleaner, MOLD ARMOR is available online and at the big box stores. At least here it is. My store shows over 240 GALLONS in stock. It's a cleaner as well as disinfectant, is reasonably priced, and widely available in liquid form. Read the label in online pics and decide if it is right for you. Also, don't forget Kennel Sanitizer at your pet or vet supply place, or Tractor Supply. It's a pretty good sanitizer/disinfectant. Pick up some puppy training pads if you think you might be nursing an invalid too.

Our Costco barricaded the front door with carts and pallets to control entry. They were wiping carts. Volume looked light based on the parking lot, at 330pm today. Not going back in there if I can help it.


Got milk and icecream this am at the corner gas station quickie mart. Only a couple of people inside, and they had a wide stock. Not very deep stock, but wide. Several choices for milk, forex.

Houston FD has 179 covid exposures, but only one guy in quarantine. I don't see that as a good thing. Our police chief is a gun grabber and 'only one' so I'm not sanguine if it comes to lockdowns that they won't be enforced and draconian. I have to decide if I bring all my offsite preps home or leave them as a backup and risk losing access.

Our kids are out of school, this would have been first day back from break. Their online learning materials are available but paltry. The schools are off until April 10 at the moment, but I don't expect to go back until fall at the earliest.

Local peeps are starting to get a bit more serious. Mom's club has figured out that maybe playdates and shared childcare isn't so smart. I hope it's not too late.

I've had the family in isolation since the 11th, except for me going out today.

Thanks to Aesop and others, we're in good shape. I started ramping up in October, and really hit it hard when this wuflu started to break in China. For most people though, this has come out of nowhere and they don't understand.

My wife went thru most of the 5 stages of grief before she got onboard with the isolation. Sucked extra hard because we were supposed to be in WDW for spring break with family. I was the super bad guy for pushing against that. Glad I did though.

There is still stuff out there if you aren't fully prepped up. You will have to be creative though.

nick

NITZAKHON said...

Southern NH.

Went grocery shopping today. Everyone polite, calm, but I could still sense panic underneath. Rice, beans, pasta & sauce, canned goods, paper aisle – all essentially bare. Cold remedies depleted. Meat at maybe 25% of normal levels though the last time they were restocking with a lot. Oddly enough protein shakes and bars still present in good quantity, and fresh fruits & veggies aplenty. Milk also in good quantity.

I was surprised to see gas cans still in stock at the local hardware store (which reminds me I need to buy another couple and fill them too).

Traffic in general is damned light even at normally full times. Thankfully I work from home but it’s still surprising when I do go out. Interestingly, on the day I read about people on busses going to smaller towns to shop there, I noticed a dramatic uptick in Masshole plates at several local stores… and yes, I followed a couple in where they proceeded to take lots of everything.

Meanwhile my wife is about out of her mind. She’s a very social, gregarious person and the enforced isolation is taking a toll. She’s snapping at the kids something fierce.

Fortunately we’re now in a position, stockpile-wise, that assuming the power doesn’t go out we’re in fine shape for quite some time. But then, I’ve been prepping for years for “something” and it looks like something is about here. Alas, Babylon.

And shameless self-promotion mode, I am putting the final touches on a longish piece about the whole thing. Should be up by about noon Tuesday.

The Mayor said...

Now ontario - home of 15 million, where 3100 kungflu tests were performed yesterday. Federal gov says hospitals have good supplies, while the tv news are asking citizens to donate masks, gloves, and other medical ppe.
As far as infected we are not testing, and we are being lied to.

Anonymous said...

I work in a gun store in Western Washington (not Seattle metro area) and it has been an absolute madhouse for the past two weeks, with it being "busier than usual" the few weeks prior to that. The only regular customers I've seen are ones who are picking up stuff that they ordered on-line and already did the paperwork for a few weeks ago, everyone else is a newbie. First firearm, or a "one for the wife" type buyers who spent the past several years spending their money on everything BUT firearms. I hesitate to wonder what joyous accidents will occur with all of these newbies carrying loaded firearms around. As one friend said when he refused to sell a firearm to a non-owning friend "Would you take a Harley out on the freeway without lessons? Well then, no."

They're pretty cheesed that the "School Safety" measure that they all seem to have voted for a few years ago went into effect in July: no while-you-wait NICs check and out-the-door for anything but shotguns and manually-operated rifles. ALL semi-auto rifles, including Ruger 10-22's and Marlin 60's get a mandatory 10 business-day wait. Handguns, which used to be a while-you-wait NICs check if you had a Concealed Pistol License, is likewise a wait, though only until local law enforcement gets back to us. Of course they're overwhelmed too, so it's the full 10 business days for handguns too. The best part is that the NICs system is so overwhelmed that half the time we can't even access it anyway, so even those that don't have to wait, do. Needless to say, our back room is stuffed to the gunnels with firearms waiting to be picked up, and lots of uneasy people wondering if we'll be open in two weeks for them to pick their firearm up.

Our ammo supplies have been looted several times over. We'll get a shipment of ammo, and by 1-2pm it's all gone. Especially popular is of course .223/5.56mm, 9X19mm, 38/357. 40S&W, 45ACP and 12ga. Lots of people trying to buy 9mm Makarov or .38 Super, we have to ask them very specific questions to wiggle out of them that no, that's not what they're looking for, and of course we're out of that.

We are literally working harder than we ever have, it's insane. This is WAY worse than any Holiday business. Even worse than in 2008 when Obama was elected and he was going to outlaw everything. We've almost run out of Glock's and SIG's, even the expensive stuff, even after several big shipments have come in. Women and old guys buying up all the .38 Special revolvers. All of the AR's and AK's long gone. We even sold off the 12 ga. over-under skeet guns, all others being long gone as well. The only shotguns left are two .410 over-unders. They'll probably be gone tomorrow.

Local Big Box sporting goods store is even worse, according to sources.

Traffic sparse, local grocery stores still functioning though the Costco definitely had its TP shortage. One kid who works there said he'd bring out a pallet and it was empty by the time he reached its destination. Check-out lines to the back of the store. Crazy.

Good rumor mill (as in, trustworthy sources) state that CoV-19 is alive and well on the local Navy bases, with a small but notable number of confirmed cases. First-hand claims of rather excessive numbers of helicopters in the air too. One friend said he saw many, along with local ground transport at local airfield, and while we were talking about it another fellow chimed in during conversation stating that he counted 30 in the air over his house that morning, with one 12-unit formation being especially interesting. All first-hand claims, rather than "My cousin Vinnie said." Whether they are actual events or not I cannot verify, but two of the first-hand sources I trust.

Aesop, if you need verification of my veracity, check in with Old NFO, we are meat-space friends.

Light Dragoon

paladin3001 said...

@smoker78

From one baker to another, keep up the fight. One baker can feed a thousand people.

Smoker78 said...

Yessir! Love the smell of yeast in the morning!

PS. My Jalepeno Cheese bread sells out as fast as I can put it on the shelf. 😀

Phelps said...

Dallas.

Our shelter in place goes into effect at midnight. All the dine in got closed a week ago, and all white collar work has been work at home for as long. Went to church yesterday (had a 10 person signup, got a spot) and visited a high risk church member for a few minutes for the wife to drop off knitting. It was about normal at White Rock Lake Park. The heathens were out trying desperately to die later by exercising and probably infecting each other.

Went out today to get supplies for projects in the house. Lowes destroyed my faith in Dallas being able to skirt this. The place was business than an average Saturday afternoon. The only people with any PPE were a pair of boomer women at the paint aisle. They had surgical masks, no gloves. One of them asked how long a yardstick was. “Three feet.” She holds it out. “No one is keeping six feet.” Yeah, no shit.

Lots of bleach. Big end caps at the door with prominent signage. No disinfecting wipes. Lots of fabuloso and other cleaners. No respirators or dust masks at all.

Next stop was big box ethnic grocery. (Fiesta). Limits on limes, cilantro, tomatoes, bananas and cilantro. Lots of beef. Meat market was closed. Bread aisle was functional but limited selection. No rice or beans. Got the last big but not no.10 cans of whole tomatoes, topped off on dairy and salty snacks. Dairy was low but nothing was out and no limits.

Most people were keeping decent distance at the registers, but all the registers were together. I won the lottery and got Personal Space Invading squatamalen behind me. Ended up putting the basket between us and she found a shorter line. No one with PPE (except me).

Lots of traffic. Again, Saturday afternoon levels of traffic. Diverse Dallas residents are not taking this seriously. My less diverse micro neighborhood has been quiet for the last week, and the wife’s trip to the local dirt store/ nursery had people of pallor acting reasonably and well regulated. I expect that when the great IQ test gets graded at pass/fail, Dallas will be a mixed (and well sorted) bag.

Anonymous said...

Southern New England sitrep: Haven't been to grocery since last Thurs. Hit hard but meat was back. No paper goods other than paper plates. Been on this since mid-Jan. About then laid in needs for gardening and yard work in anticipation of some unscheduled vacation. Other preps were undertaken so we are pretty well set.

At work we are port/starboard for those who must go in. About 95% are WFH. Nearly everyone is keeping social distance. Some don't get it and are bunching up but I have not and will not allow anyone within 6 ft. Current work is 'essential' but should be complete tomorrow. Then its WFH for the duration. Had to get gas this AM. The prices have gone up. Price gouging or supply problems - can't tell. At this point its once a week to the grocery for perishables. Trying to go off hours. Purposely avoided today as the state is in lockdown as of 40 min ago. However, like the poster above, the exception list is so long its pretty much pointless. Not going out much at all - Sunday Mass was live streamed.

Be sure to bag produce and wash with soap and H2O. Apparently there are tards out there purposefully coughing on produce. I suspect no one has the stones to call them out on it. Do make sure you get all the soap off. Even a little can give you a nice case of the squirts.

Vitaeus said...

https://www.facebook.com/PSNSandIMFontheWaterfront/photos/pcb.10156945034858053/10156945004558053/?type=3&theater

daily letter from PSNS &IMF Commander to us employees....

Borepatch said...

The only data that is reliable is "the government sucks and you can't trust them".

I sure wish it was different, but it's not.

Anonymous said...

San Antonio here..
Costco had everything but tp and sanitizing things...did have a good supply of pool shock. No sense of panic.
Walmart was stripped
HEB had everything but tp and sanitizing stuff. Seemed to be pretty orderly.

Smoker78 said...

Dude, is there a way you can get my email from Aesop? I’m looking for an old friend from psns/imf out in Everett. Details off line

Old NFO said...

Small town north Texas. Quiet, gas under $2.00/gal. Stores coming back, setting Monday/Thursday 0700-0900 for elderly/disabled. Stocked up on Saturday at Sams. Stocks back except for TP/Paper towels. No hamburger. Have PPE, but staying home and not using it. Gas is okay. People voluntarily keeping distance.

Differ said...

Suburban north Metro Atlanta. Schools doing distance learning. Library closed, restaurants mostly take-out only. Most stores still stocked with most of everything except TP; wife did a top-up shop this afternoon on rumors that gov Kemp was going to enact statewide lockdown; he didn't.
Drove 60 miles north to Resaca to hike on the Pinhoti trail Saturday afternoon. The folks we met were the usual cheerful and cordial hiker and dog walker types.
Lots of vehicles with Ontario tags northbound on I-75; heading home from Florida no doubt.
Expecting an uptick in urban yours heading to the suburbs to break into cars for cash, electronics and guns; it's what they do once the weather gets warmer. Probably going to be a lot more vigilant residents soon.

Differ said...

Youths, not yours, and Sunday Mass live streamed... Odd

Anonymous said...

My niece is a NYU educated MD surgeon in NYC she is running out of masks it is so bad my sister is seeing cloth ones for her

Anonymous said...

Wife has access to New England Journal of Medicine. Good article on surface persistence of KungFlu.

Under Correspondence: Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 (aka KungFlu) as Compared with SARS-Cov-1 (original SARS). DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc2004973.

High level summary: Aerosols 3h, Copper 8h, Cardboard 24h, Stainless 24-48h, Plastic 48-72h. Test conditions: 21-23°C, 40%RH, up to 7 days.

We will be posting the very nicely done graphs for reference until info is memorized.

I added the aka KungFlu to the title for clarity.

RCW said...

Regarding where to treat extreme cases, where there are no available vents (using palliative care I guess?) and after triaging with priority to the youngin's, maybe make use of the now mostly empty motels & hotels and also if viable, some of the former military bases closed by BRAC in 2005?

TwoDogs said...

Waco

Guns, check, ammo, check, food, check, booze, check, shelter, check, transport with fuel, check, TP, check, meds, check, dog food, check, hand sanitizer, check. Damn, I'm good and thanks for the heads up, Aesop.

geoffb said...

SW Michigan, partial lockdown goes into effect in a few minutes.

Last time I went out to top up a few things was the 20th. Meijers, a large regional superstore chain like Walmart, had most everything in stock except very low on paper products. My county has had only 3 reported cases so far. I'm stocked up for several months at home with my wife right now.

I've always have around a months worth and during Feb/March increased it as I expected that there would be some shutdown sometime.

Anonymous said...

First hand reports of serious dumbfuckery at a hive hospital. You couldn't make up more fucked up shit than what I heard but having spent a brief stint in a hospital and knowing my source, it's true. Think staff being told PPE uneccessary. Think exposure of unexposed patients using positive patients. Think TARFU on the edge of FUBAR.

Please put on a kevlar brain bucket if you intend on watching the federal dream team press conference from tonight cause I'm pretty sure your head will explode and make a mess otherwise. Fuckery on a level that must be seen to be believed.

Camacho 2020!

Anonymous said...

North central Wyoming up against a DMZ (maps are friends.). Census Bureau classifies this AO as "frontier," and my grandkids went to a one-room school K-4 prior to going down below to big skools. Some stayed home-schooled.

Four confirmed cases in the county seat, half an hour away. Apparently a hundred tests have been done in this county (presser didn't say if they were out of kits.) Forty negative, sixty pending results from a lab. The Four, have been doing some isolation since 3/12 with daily visits from county public health people.

Nobody that I know of has any concerns about store-bought food supplies. It is that sort of an area. We all have concerns about burglaries and home invasions when others' EBT cards don't quite fit the bill of fare. The Sheriff's Office knows crime patterns up here. Likely slack will be cut on the county prosecutorial end when locals defend their turf. Some time in the future, the Supremes may decide that the 1868 Ft Laramie treaty does have geographic limits to it.

Schools in this county are closed of course. There's three districts: big, small, and tiny. Big one is reopening on a virtual basis real shortly. If your house doesn't have enough devices, they have stashed enough of my money in the past, to help families who have squandered income elsewhere.

The smaller district announced today that it will be furnishing pick-up lunches five days/wk for the chirren in five locations around the school district. Even when those educators regularly have school only four days/wk. It's the Gramscian march through institutions, commies are even here. There may be involved a federal reg which states that all must eat in order for fed education money to bleed downward. Saw that line of thought somewhere today but can't reference or defend it.

One of those lunch pickup sites is our local post office, open 2/hrs/day six days/wk. More disease vectors imported, more decon on our end. Some decision-makers can't buy a clue. Schoolkids up here are not hungry nor are their parents in need of a free lunch. Something's rotten in Denmark, huh.

It is really too bad that people got so comfortable and so disconnected from their kin, those people whose times were so bad that they had a need for FDR as their savior. We are reaping that family heritage disconnect now. The bad folks are going to get quite a bit of what they want as a result.

Quietus

Anonymous said...

2 different locales in rural Idaho for familial contingent interests. Both areas are calm, well stocked and peaceful, with zero outbreak in either. The fallback location is very hospitable if your are recognized; if you are not, it is semi-cordial and patiently waiting for you to move-on. (It is the kind of place you cannot fake your way into.) A very strong non-starter is an out-of-state license plate, and a downright gimlet eye if it is a CA plate. Most people have well stocked larders as a matter of routine. Power can be iffy in heavier winters and be out for days at a time. During January the ice fog will move in for about 3 weeks and daytime highs get up to 5f; I have seen -35 at night. When this happens everything exposed is covered with hoar frost and rime ice. The elk herds stay close-by during those times to eat free with the cattle. So far, if one did not read, listen or watch, you would not think of anything being different.

Anonymous said...

Aesop--

I'll spare everyone the sitrep from my AO. It's pretty much the norm for flyover country USA.

But I do want to say a hearty "thank you." Your posts on Ebola from last year were the motivation I needed to get off my keister last summer and lay in a good store of food for my family, along with some ways to store water.

Your posts on Kung Flu were what helped me to solidify those preps a good 3+ weeks ago when I had my pick of what I wanted at Costco on a Thursday afternoon. It turned out that skipping TP and bleach were strategic mistakes, but hey, nobody around here is going to be hungry for a good long while. We have enough redundancy in other systems to make those NBD for now.

Anyway, all that to say: Thank you.

-John M.

Anonymous said...

I can offer an overview covering a large geographic area.

Cases are popping up in the absolute middle of nowhere, in small towns, in states not really on the radar for having big outbreaks. They're not getting publicized very much, but they are definitely happening.

Don't think this is some city problem at this point in time.

Peter B said...

Former HHS official claims CDC leaders "lied" to Trump over coronavirus testing

Chris Meekins, a former assistant secretary of Health and Human Services for preparedness and response, cited private discussions he has held in recent weeks with top federal officials and physicians and scientists employed in private-sector industries that are active in the anti-coronavirus effort. Meekins described his contacts on the White House Coronavirus Task Force as “friends,” some of whom he has known for many years.

“From my conversations with members of the task force, both inside and outside the administration,” Meekins told Sinclair in an exclusive interview, “The U.S. government, from Secretary Azar to the president relied on the Centers for Disease Control to produce a test; they failed....CDC said they would handle it....What we have found out is that these leaders at the CDC lied to both the HHS secretary and, by extension, the president. And as a result the nation got weeks behind.”

Clowns at the CDC? We should be so lucky.

Termite said...

Report from the Gulf of Mexico oil patch:

March 19th: Everyone coming to work on our company production platforms were fever-checked and questioned about travel & contacts in last 21 days, by paramedics at the heliport, before signing in with the flight desk. One of our crew members had a runny nose and cough, said it was allergies(oak and pine are pollinating like crazy here); he was sent home and got tested for Kung Flu, results should be back in a couple more days.

March 17th: Houston office calls offshore and informs us(production ops) that we are now on a 28/28 rotation vs normal 14/14. This will likely last until May 14th at minimum, and probably until July 2.
Drilling rigs are normally on 21/21 rotation, and several drilling companies just announced they are going to a 42/42 rotation until further notice. Which will likely result in some personnel quitting once they crew-change.

Louisiana statewide cases are rising much faster than the national average, with the most cases being in the New Orleans area. Culprit is almost certainly Mardi Gras.

Termite said...

That first date should have said "March 16th".

Anonymous said...

Melbourne, Australia

We're two or three weeks behind the States in terms of infections, and I'm quietly hopeful that the government's relatively early (and increasingly firm) response will allow us to beat this down rather than having it get totally out of hand.

Public behaviour's mixed. City streets are virtually empty, most local businesses shut. Those who can work from home, do. Most folks keep their distance, and there's a certain calm Spirit Of The Blitz about it all.

Adults seem to have got the message, but large numbers of young people still haven't. We also have immense numbers of Chinese students who can't seem to go as far as the toilet without a dozen friends coming along. And to my surprise the online conservative community is full of people who are getting VERY excited about how this is just the flu, bro, and we all just need to go straight back to work.

The grocery chains are doing a mighty job of keeping up with demand. Still, buttwipe's completely unavailable unless you're waiting at the door 90 minutes before opening. Meat (fresh and canned) hit pretty hard, but you can get it in small quantities. Cleaning supplies come and go. Limits have been placed on things like canned produce. You'd have to work hard and expose yourself to a lot of people if you were prepping from scratch.

Unemployment is going to be a massive problem in the short term. After that, we'll see.

Just wanted to thank Aesop for sounding the alarm in time for us to ramp up. I always keep a certain level of supplies on hand, but we started cranking up in early February back when you could buy as much of anything as you wanted. As things stacked up, the family laughed and laughed! Not laughing now. So long as public utilities still run, we can bunker down for months. If electricity goes, it'll be a very sucky bunch of months. If water goes we can hang on for a couple of weeks, but after that comes the zombie apocalypse.

Regrettably, the only way a fellow without criminal connections can get a sidearm here is to take one from a cop.

Our search for a place out in the country with reliable water continues.

Good luck to you all. In particular, good luck to you, Aesop. My better half's a very experienced RN, so we have a sense of what you're bracing for. Your series of posts will have save lives. Be proud. Be safe, too.

JL said...

Northern Alberta, Canada

The good news: I'm in the ass end of nowhere, in a place nobody gives a shit about. I live here for work reasons. It'll take about a full tank of gas to get to where I'm at. Also, most people up here - due to reasons relating to geography and weather - tend to buy in bulk and stock up on essentials when they can.

The bad news: I work in a job where, no matter what happens, I'll be at work anyway. Meaning, if somebody does come down with kung flu, goes stir crazy due to being shut in (hasn't happened YET, but it's coming), or if it's just the usual 'dealing with meth addicts and crazy people' business, I'll be at the center of it (even if it's just on the periphery).

This is all assuming the idiot that pretends to run Canada doesn't screw the pooch even more - which, given his track record, is pretty much a guarantee. In which case, I may be redeployed to try and help clean up whatever mess ends up coming of it.

- JL

Grog said...

Wa state, south sound area, didn't see a lot of panic or stupidity yesterday after the "stay-at-home" announcement, today will probably be a different story, just taking it one day at a time.

The local grocery is limiting paper towels and tp to one package each per shopping trip, low stock for those has been the rule, as expected. Most other items are still available.

Anonymous said...

Here is the story on how Coronavirus testing was messed up:

https://thedispatch.com/p/timeline-the-regulationsand-regulatorsthat

The Ewok at AOSHQ had a post too,

http://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=386477

Hopefully one of these experimental treatments will work.
Maybe my immunocompromised Crohn's diseased butt will make it through?
Aesop and his warnings are giving me a much better chance.

Anonymous said...

Southeast Alabama
Traffic down 50% easily, much of that drop is due to school closures. Restaurants are hurting, except chick fil a. Medical practices are reducing patient visits to just urgent things, gonna hurt many businesses downstream.

Groceries - bread, rice, beans, canned meats, frozen pizzas, etc... continually gone. Ground beef and chicken gone (who knew people knew how to cook?) cleaning wipes, isopropyl alcohol, gone. Hydrogen peroxide usually can find one or two on shelves. Virus remedies usually out, but Wally World getting stock in every so,often. TP gone as soon as it hits the shelves, if it makes it that far. Saw a pallet of tp rolling out of the back at Wally World a couple of days ago, no one panicked. What else? Ammo and guns sporadically constrained. Rural king is a zoo, no ammo supposedly, but gander has plenty and not much foot traffic. Lowe’s is perpetually busy, but plenty of gardening and building supplies.

If commerce is,limited until mid April, I think it’s an easy bounce back. If this lingers, it’s gonna suck.
I have a plan to reduce hours and then lay people off if it comes to that. Looking at what uncle sugar is up to relief wise to see how we can coordinate with that. We can’t operate as a business too long with reduces revenues, if it comes to that. Invoices go out 1st of April, gone be interesting to see how clients pay, and how fast. We are pretty busy right now, but I suspect this will change in a week or two as mr. reality gets his turn.

nick flandrey said...

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html


Ok, imagine if China deaths account for the 22 million fewer phone subscribers.

Put those numbers in any of the counter arguments that this thing "ain't so bad" and see if THAT changes your mind.

Numbers like that, which surely are available to world leaders, make everything we've seen make sense.

Avoid people, avoid getting this.

nick

Anonymous said...

Thanks for waking up some folks. It was always going to come to this since 1913 when the Federal Reserve private bank took over, since 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard allowing debt to explode and more recently in 2008 with the bank/corporate bailouts. The very real virus provides the perfect cover for more theft from the peasants through inflation and consequently depression. Have you seen the pork anti-stimulus packages (trillions!) congress is trying to push through most of which has nothing to do with medical supplies or virus containment? Disgusting!

We picked up some last minute supplies at the local Dollar store (semi-rural North Texas) and surprising the shelves were still pretty full, all things considering. Only limits were on TP, paper towels and wipes which we didn't need and none were in stock anyway. Beer and wine still on the shelves, a few canned goods as well as coffee which we grabbed. Only a few people in the store and nobody coughing or wearing masks. We wore disposable gloves and rinsed them with fuel-grade ethanol before removing them. Once home, wiped down all purchases just like we do to all delivered packages (inside and out) and the mail. Started that practice around the first of February. Staying home is not a big deal since we're retired and it's planting time. Normally, we hate to interact with the public anyway! Neighbors are coming and going per usual and receiving visitors. Ugh. Traffic on highway down maybe 30% but we're not under shelter-at-home orders. Bars are closed but liquor stores are still open because *essential* tax revenue.

Dallas county (next door) is locked down by county judge Clay Jenkins, the very same judge that oversaw Ebola fiasco in 2014. I don't hold much hope for Dallas as they adhere to CDC guidelines just as before.

Good luck everyone! May the Gods be with you. They continue to smile upon us and we are eternally thankful for their blessings and the occasional cosmic joke :)

nick flandrey said...

Houston to lock down at midnight tonight.

Pile it up while you still can.

At this point, stay out of stores, which still leaves GASOLINE, and PROPANE, gardening supplies.

n

Spin said...

Aesop:

Why is nobody talking about the time dwell affecting the death rate? From what I've been able to surmise is that the fatality occurs anywhere from 7 to 21 days (avg) from exposure. The 35k number should be measured against deaths 14 days from now not today to get the real death rate. I think the rate will be higher than 1.3%.

Be Well and Stay well;

Spin

Spin said...

Aesop:

Why is nobody talking about the time dwell affecting the death rate? From what I've been able to surmise is that the fatality occurs anywhere from 7 to 21 days (avg) from exposure. The 35k number should be measured against deaths 14 days from now not today to get the real death rate. I think the rate will be higher than 1.3%.

Be Well and Stay well;

Spin

Nahanni said...

89% percent of the people in China had a mobile phone in 2018 (the best and latest statistics I could find).

IMHO add 20% onto that number to get a realistic death toll (some folks own 2 phones).

26 million and they're still dying there despite the BS out of the WHO.

Anonymous said...

@Spin 8:44 AM

Dr. John Campbell summarizes a recent report (Lancet, Mar. 12) doing just this.

See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-60EvBSLulo&feature=youtu.be&t=690

The report is:
*Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection*
Published:March 12, 2020
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30195-X
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

The video is from yesterday.

Basically the CFR taking into account a 7 day delay is ~5.7%
And 14 days would increase that. So your point stands.

Reltney McFee said...

I'm in the middle of Michigan, something like 20-30 miles from a city of around 100,000 people. In my small town, things appear pretty tranquil. Near ghost town levels of street traffic. TDW and I did a brief errand run yesterday, and there was very light traffic out. Our LGS was kinda thin on the handguns (not out, simply thin), and very thin on ammo in common calibers. (down to last couple of boxes of 12 ga slugs).

As for me, I got laid off from my job as an urgent care PA: boss sent me an e mail Saturday night. Came too soon for me (or, to be honest, my planning sucked in that regard), but I have alternatives.

That leads me to my next point. In January (might have been late December, but I'm not sure), I started to get folks in with a very, very credible "I got the flu!" story, but were Influenza A as well as B negative. At that time, I shrugged it off, laid out my standard "You got a URI, manage your symptoms, go forth and sin no more" instructions.

But, now, I wonder....

Dad29 said...

SE Wisconsin exurb. Traffic about 50-60% of normal around the Big City; Governor announced shutdown yesterday but won't give details until today (shutdown effective midnight tonight....) what a boob. All restaurants and bars closed through his orders 10 days ago except for take-out/delivery (not booze, sorry!!) CHurches, schools, closed 2 weeks ago, not likely to re-open the schools (what's the point?) Reliable reports that both Cabela's and Fleet/Farm were OUT of handguns last weekend. Grocery store traffic sub-normal, stocks are OK but slim. USARNG 300 troops activated to help with medical supply deliveries. Rumbles that more will be activated--no purpose yet announced--but nothing substantial to "prove" it. WI has 430+ cases, 5 deaths. Most cases (60++%) in Big City and burbs plus Madison.

Ned2 said...

There's no real way to predict death rates with this thing, AS IT'S NOT OVER YET.
Only when it has passed can we begin to put together realistic statistics, and even then we'll be trying to guess how many got this, shrugged it off as a cold and were fine after a few days.
Less traffic today in Northern Rockies Small Town.


* I do find interesting the stat of 21 million Chinese cell phones going dead in December *

parascribe said...

I run a small ED in Kansas, we saw the same thing late December through February, bunch of cases we all swore would be flu that tested negative. I wonder

Anonymous said...

"IT'S NOT OVER YET." Sh'yeah...this thing's still cookin. Give it a week or two, then we'll take stock.
BG

TechieDude said...

I'm in N. Dallas, like some others have posted. Like Phelps said above, our vibrants aren't really taking this lockdown seriously. I work at home, and take breaks to go walk the dogs. Its' like grand central f-ing station around here. Families walking, visiting at the park.

And, I wasn't aware vibrants building houses and mowing lawns were deemed "essential"

Like one of the other posters above, I'm close to walmart, and Kroger, which I've dubbed "ghetto kroger". I'd avoid both if I could, but they are close. The other stores are a bit out of my way, about as far as ghetto Kroger, but in the opposite direction. Only reason I went there was it's next to Walgreens, where I needed a prescription. Funny thing, I get my renewals for 90 days, yet Walgreens would only dole me out 30 days at a time. Yesterday, they gave me 90.

Ghetto Kroger on Monday was like a Saturday. They had most of everything and were rationing TP and Paper towels to one/family. They've clamped down almost everything to no more than 1-3 per. I needed ground meat and there was none packaged, so I went to the butcher section. They would only sell me two pounds. I needed three (I was feeding like 8 people). Kroger was way more vibrant, as was Walmart, than usual. And they only had one lane open, so everyone was funneled, ass and elbows, into self check. I may not get corona, but I hope to hell I don't get lice. It was a raggedy crowd.

At this point, I don't need anything, but I'll stop by to add back what I've used or to buy wine. One thing I noticed is the food products that get strip mined seem to be the stuff people who don't have a lot of money and don't know how to cook would buy. Ground meat, spaghetti sauce, pasta, eggs, bread. There were plenty of large cuts of beef and pork, Ones that take some skill to cook, like chuck beef or pork butt/shoulders. I picked up a nice size frozen turkey for $11. They had a huge pile, untouched. I really have no more space for anything. This is what happens when you've spent the last month and a half building up. Wasn't tough, buy a a little more here and there.

Far as the numbers, I'm dubious.
https://reason.com/2020/03/23/two-reasons-the-worst-case-scenarios-for-covid-19-seem-unrealistic/
We don't know how many didn't catch it, did and were asymptomatic, or had mild cases where they didn't seek medical attention. It also does't factor in behavior changes. Not to say it won't be bad, But I find that total dead number suspect. Hell, here in Dallas, the fool was saying it could be 430K here. BS. It will mess up the hospitals, for sure. I think give it two weeks to set up beer virus centers, and let it go. I get the sense that they are flattening the curve, but the ends are being squashed out. You'll get the dead you'll get, it'll just take way longer. I think the damage has been done to the economy, and it'll be all downhill from here.

nickt1y said...

Interesting analysis of Italian data on deaths.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

The Freeholder said...

Triad area of NC here, but away from the actual Triad cities. 2 confirmed cases in my county.

For some reason, I started getting twitchy last fall, and started quietly laying in what I could. Those of you who have a spouse who isn't on board with preparedness know what I mean. First aid supplies, some food. Started buying with the attitude of "I'll catch hell but I'll survive" in late January, after a couple of weeks watching the Wuflu and figuring that the words and the actions didn't jibe. Had a careful talk with the wife in mid-February and showed her some things. Listened to Chris Martenson and Dr. Campbell in her presence. It took a week, but she grudgingly agreed that I could stock up, "as long as it's tuff we'll use." Never let a crisis go to waste. We now have around 4 months in stock. I also bought a few other items that would come in useful if this goes really South.

Haven't been to a grocery store for several days. Won't go until I need to, and I don't really need to. Maybe next week, just to top things off. Have hit several drive-thrus, trying to support the local folks.

People are cordial. Some are obviously trying to get ready as fast as the can and some are oblivious. I had to go to Lowes today after some supplies for stay at home projects and saw my first masks, amazing worn correctly. And one woman in gloves, cell phone in hand, wondering the aisles at the directions of the male on the other end, looking for something.

The supply situation is spotty. Some stores have, some don't. Last I saw everyone was limiting purchases of most staples to 1-2 per person. Local big meat packer is selling like there's no tomorrow-herd the line yesterday was 4 hours, but it's all the meat, frozen veggies and such you can cart off. They supply a lot of local restaurants, which are closed except for take out.

Gas in good supply, prices down. Most stores open but quiet. That won't last for long-pretty much any place where people can congregate is going to be closed by 5 tomorrow. Traffic, oddly, isn't quiet.

Social distancing is also hit-or-miss. Depends on where and who shows up. Local Novant Health outlets are setting up triage tents in parking lots.

Son texted me that his boss told him that several coworkers had been tested for Wuflu; all negative. So far. Work schedule has been changed to 4 10 hour days.

Wife is a teacher and schools are out until May 15 and likely for the year. She is working from home. They're all desperately trying to figure out how to do distance learning with no infrastructure and no training, serving a population who mostly thinks Internet access is something you do from an Obamaphone.

Listening to the scanner a lot. Lots of calls for folks in respiratory distress. Could be the time of year, might not be.

Never figured the boogaloo would be started by a virus, but maybe it will.

Will probably use this as the basis for a blog post of my own. Stay safe, folks.

Stelath Spaniel said...

Reporting in from Folsom, Cali
Stopped at the vet's office for more dog food-the spaniels are well stocked for the next 3 months. I needed carrots and went to Trader Joe's Market. These folks have got their story together. There were 3 or 4 people at the entrance, in masks and gloves, with 3 people at the exit. TJM was only letting in 40 folks at a time, you were handed a clean and sanitized cart, and the store was very well stocked! Everyone was polite, friendly, and not shrieking about toilet paper. The booze aisle was well attended, and fully provisioned. I loaded up my top off needs, and got checked out right away. At the exit, they asked 2 bags or less to take your groceries with you, otherwise, someone offloads stuff into your car, and then the cart is resterilized before it goes to the next shopper. Yes, I did buy some wine because one does not live by ammo alone. Our Dollar Store had only 10 people in it. No one had a mask, or gloves. So I sprayed Lysol and let stuff air out. Probably overkill, but........

paladin3001 said...

Update from my AO. 4 new cases diagnosed in the county. Including one of community transmission. 70 year old woman who has no travel history recently or close contact with anyone with a travel history. They are only testing "possible" cases based on recent travel or contacts with recent travel. Magic number they are looking for is 24 hours. We are so fucked right now it's not even funny.
Work is instituting maximum numbers of people in the store (currently working on 75 customers at a time). Going to be a shit show with that one. See it coming like a freight train. Had to go to Costco near me to grab some propane and figured on grabbing a few items for me and my mom as she had requested them earlier. Place was a ghost town. No crowds and when I went to cash out I didn't even have to wait long to get rung through.

Anonymous said...

Freeholder,

I got a good laugh that you had to surreptitiously purchase essentials, break the news gently, and then receive grudging permission, all with the title of freeholder.

Anonymous said...

Reporting from CO, Front Range

Surveyed a number Kroger and Safeway stores from Denver to Fort Collins. Pretty much identical to reports from elsewhere. No paper towels or T.P. or isopropyl alcohol. No canned vegetables or pasta, limited supplies of canned fruit. Limited stocks of diary products. Plenty of meats, eggs, fish and fresh produce however. And full shelves of beer and wine. No kitty litter. Must not be a priority item for re-stocking.

Surprising amount of traffic on I-25 and also on back roads. Very heavy truck traffic.

No police doing traffic stops. The usual speed trap locations were abandoned.

The Sheriff in my county has announced they will release country prisoners who have served over 50% of their sentences for non-violent crimes (Typical sentences run 30-60 days). Approximately a dozen staff members are under self-quarantine for exposure to COVID-19. All public offices are now closed to the public.

Traffic enforcement measures will be curtailed as stated by the Sheriff: "For patrol, we are limiting our contact with the public by reducing routine traffic stops..."

"New and renewal conceal carry permits are temporarily suspended during the closure."

I am staying home after this little excursion. (Most of our staff is on work-from-home procedures now, even though we are considered "essential business activity").

Termite said...

LawDog has similar thoughts to Aesop on the Kung Flu statistics, particularly the numbers from China.

http://thelawdogfiles.blogspot.com/2020/03/stop-panicking-over-bad-data.html

Cocklebur said...

Here is the thing, hold on while I put another layer of foil in my hat, there was ALWAYS going to be something big go down before the Presidential election. Trump has pissed in way too many people's chili, and they don't like it. The Commie Chinese hate his guts, ditto for the homegrown Commies we have here and those in Europe.
Was this planned? I doubt it, when you factor in the general incompetence the Communists have a breach in their research facility seems likely, or it could just be because the Podunk Chinese like to eat weird shit.
Keep your larder filled and your powder dry.

Duke Norfolk said...

"I got a good laugh that you had to surreptitiously purchase essentials, break the news gently, and then receive grudging permission,"

Yes. Men have totally given up control of their households. I see this "got permission from the wife" crap all the time these days (and it's not new, of course), and wince every time.

I know, I know, she makes half/part/most of the money, so she gets a vote, etc. But that just points out the underlying, fundamental issue.

Hawkin'Gal said...

Michigan--too close to Detroit

"POP--People of Pallor" That gave me a good laugh!

Dog park closed a week ago. Parents had to start walking the greyhound, which always poops at least twice. Bought Dad a doggy backpack so the pooch can carry her own shit. Dad reports people maintaining good distancing when stopping to chat on dog walks.

Doctor's office receptionist who gave me the "it's just the flu" lecture three weeks ago now reports her doctor's office is being closed with all staff to transfer to local hospital. She's furious and now whines "if people would just stay home for 14 days this would all go away." She's a drunk as well as dead stupid.

Good friend has a daughter who works in nuclear medicine lab at Cleveland Clinic. Two of her coworkers tested positive. Daughter has been told to keep working until she's actually sick because they've all been exposed anyway.

The Freeholder said...

Anonymous, a good marriage is a partnership. Not all partners see the world the same way. I'm just glad that my wife has gotten a few good, abject lessons why I am the way I am. I am getting abject lessons in why she has learned over the last several years to hate being a teacher by watching her work. Glad I spent my career in IT. It may be one of the last places that you're allowed if not encouraged to weed out stupidity and laziness.

Freeholder is a term of property ownership, at least in my usage.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

I know, I know, she makes half/part/most of the money, so she gets a vote, etc. But that just points out the underlying, fundamental issue.

Not even getting to the "underlying, fundamental issue", she also holds every card society and the law provide. Both hold the cards of physical violence, and women use the non-lethal card more than men.

Such unbalanced systems can never, ever be "partnerships," no matter what people fantasize, unless one or both sides make it crystal clear that there's a line past which lethal force will be used to enforce equity in the relationship. That's not a very workable system for most people, let alone a good or healthy one.

Anonymous said...

Here is another data point. In January my brother in law who works at WDW near Orlando came down with a serious illness went to the doctors was given some prescription for God knows what was out sick for 3 weeks. The last week of January my sister came over to bring a slice of bread she had baked. Sr was still sick, but "feeling better". Was the first time she had dropped over the house like that in six years. Two days later my other sister and I started getting sick. Some respiratory problems for both. We were ill for all Feb and the first 2 weeks of March. My lungs/chest are/is still sore and I feel like My lungs capacity is lower.
If this was not the Kungflu it was a close relative.

And if WDW was a hot spot no way the mandarins in the Disney mafia that makes up the local media would let that out.


Anonymous said...

You are all totally mistaken. The biggest issue with Kung Flu is how terribly racist and awful we white people are, as this virtue signaling tweet and the astonishing generalizations in the responses show: https://twitter.com/emilyrauhala/status/1242603255290646528?s=20. That's right, none of us ever noticed or cared about the horror show in Wuhan. We've always viewed Asians as substandard.

That victimhood stuff they teach in schools has worked perfectly. Asians have picked it up and are running with it.

NITZAKHON said...

Well done anonymous!

I was talking with a friend of mine the other day and mentioned the videos from NinetyMiles:

http://ninetymilesfromtyranny.blogspot.com/2020/03/shock-video-chinese-people-repeatedly.html

Now, understand I don't have a racist bone in my body. I do have a nationalist bone, and a culturalist bone.

Sh*t like this will turn me anti-Asian. Or at least anti-Chinese.