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| Yes, the Russian Army has Carl jokes too. |
On D+23, they still haven't made the 50 miles from Belarus to Kyiv, and still haven't cut that city off. [Hint: On D+26, we'd taken over the entirety of Iraq, with less than half the troops Russia sent into Ukraine. But to be fair, unlike the Iraqis, the Ukes aren't walking home in their underwear the first time they heard a bullet crack overhead.]
Ivan set out with something like 250,000 troops, against Ukraine's 200,000. Nominal basic attack math says you need 3:1 superiority to achieve victory. So this was already an iffy proposition from the get-go.
But Ivan couldn't spare more units, equipment, troops, etc., because unlike 1980 or so, he's only got a fraction of former Soviet Army strength to spare, and there's that interminable border with China, plus keeping order in all the -stans, plus the border with NATO, and then keeping a coup from happening, which makes Russia look more like a banana republic than most banana republics.
Shock and surprise got Russia 90% of their present gains, in about a day, and the next 22 days have gotten them the other 10%.And shocker, but it turns out that after 80 years of Soviet rule, Putin's invasion did more to unite Ukraine than Hitler and Stalin combined.
The Russians have, on paper, an overwhelming advantage on the Ukrainian armed forces, in planes, tanks, men, etc. But three weeks in, and no sign of victory, or anything close. Just endless days of more videos showing their aircraft going down in flames, their tanks and APCs and supply columns going up in smoke, and Putin wondering what the hell happened to the quick military victory he was evidently promised by a cadre of yes-men, with more medals on their chests than the entire Boy Scouts and the Ugandan Army combined, despite never having won an actual war since 1945.
Putin's losing generals by the day, mostly in combat (to their credit) so far, but reportedly now, a couple may be (or have been) lost to the Kremlin chopping block. He's using up hard-to-replace munitions at a prodigious rate, and yet Zelenskyy remains in charge of his country and its forces, broadcasting live to the US government, and getting a standing ovation from the entire Congress, and promises of another 2000 Javelins, and 800 Stingers. That's another 1800 Russian tanks and APCs that will be blown to hell, and another several air wings lost in combat, based purely on performance in theater, to date.
Putin's troops get shot for cowardice if they retreat, shot by Ukrainians if they advance, and have reverted to the age-long Russian tactic of looting just to get daily food to eat.
So at what point does Putin
a) quit shelling cities, and attempt to simply regroup, and solidify his gains? (As if Ukraine will sit still for this);
b) say "Ah, fuck it!", withdraw entirely, declare the lesson learned, and worry about a firing squad retirement party;
c) decide the lemon is worth the squeeze, and start deploying either chemical and/or nuclear weapons to secure that elusive "W" (which would probably trigger taking on NATO head-to-head, starting with massive air strikes to wipe out his entire invasion force within the first 24 hours, with the entire nuclear triad in the on-deck circle if his own generals don't stick his head on a pole and wave it in surrender)?
That's the open question at this point.
If he becomes frustrated and unhinged enough to pop WMDs, NATO, having wisely and mightily resisted any idiotic opportunity for direct conflict, would probably find itself unable to do so any longer.
Then we find out if his generals are more willing to see Moscow and the whole world burn in a nuclear holocaust, or simply shoot their sonofabitch in the head, and call it good.
You got bunker?
11 comments:
Lost of truth in the artical.
Big question asked was Will his own people take him out?
Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know he shall see.
Any thoughts on why that idiot Putin won't call it quits and retreat from Ukraine already? Even if by some wild chance he does manage to take it, I can't see him being able to hold it. If memory serves, Poland during WWII was a pretty good example of what happens when a 'defeated country' declines to be subjugated.
~Rhea
Afraid he might go for option c, and NATO responding with "moar sanctions," namely barring old ruski grandmas from bingo halls...
One item I'm somewhat curious about is how the ethnically-Russian Ukrainians (mostly in the east) have been responding to this. Have they supported the invasion, taken up arms against it, largely decided to sit things out, or some combination thereof? Given it was the Russian-speaking breakaway "republics" which acted as a pretext for all this, I'm surprised not to have heard more about that issue.
Last reports had about 900K of them fleeing into Russia (a war zone doesn't check ID); some of the rest, especially outside the breakaways, regard themselves as Ukrainian first, and Russian second, and are every bit as pissed at the Russian invaders as the ethnic Ukrainians are. The middle third, as in all such cases, simply want to be left the f**k alone.
Very well put.
The Russians do have stockpiles of tube artillery and they can thump that off (somewhat indiscriminately) into Kiev with impunity since the Ukrainians haven't figured out counter-battery fire. I don't blame the Ukes. They just haven't figured it out. If you're a Russian general, you can do that and report back to the Kremlin that you haven't lost a single tank or APC. Maybe you'll get promoted and a medal?
I don't think it's any such question of "haven't figured it out" as it is of "our Firefinder-equivalent radars go all explodey from ARMs if we turn them on".
Their drone efforts against Russian SP guns, rocket trucks, and reload convoys have actually been rather prodigious.
And to be fair, most Russian gunnery is hard-pressed to achieve anything beyond minute-of-town level of accuracy, so it's mainly a PR and humanitarian problem, not a military one.
Which abysmal performance has a lot to do with why the Russians are stalled. They haven't accomplished proper combined-arms attacks in 75 years, and they have no institutional memory.
What I'm enjoying are the posts by some bloggers on Gab and other places, that wax euphoric over St. Vladimir The Put-On. I won't name anyone here; I don't want to be seen as name calling.
Some of the writers go to extremes, such as the ones that want to take American Ukrainian supporters into their soundproofed rooms for some old fashioned torture. While I'm a bit of a medievalist, I'm not into the torture porn that these folks are.
What's even better are the Uber-Christians who want to really go First Crusade bloodbath in Jerusalem on the Ukrainians. I saw one post that stated that if Jesus was around today, he'd be using flaying knives on the Ukes.
Then there is one writer who says in effect that if you support the Ukes, you stand with those who produce kiddie p@rn and s@domy.
The list goes on, and I've cut back my surfing on the subject.
You may have hit upon the missing ingredient: I'm harshing the mellow of the torture-porn junkies.
Counter battery is fairly tricky and relies on good work done fast with others standing by (in the right place) to carry it out.
So far, only the US and Britain have the equipment to do it in a world with fast moving self propelled howitzers - and only the US has enough of that equipment to really matter.
Even if we gave the equipment to Ukraine, learning to use and coordinate it properly would take longer than this war is likely to last.
I'm not surprised that the Putin Simps would harbor such thoughts.
The absolute irony of "We gotta turn into Nazis to stop the National Socialist!" don't click on their little basement dwelling potato brains.
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