Monday, December 10, 2018

Ebola 2018 Update: Lying With Statistics





















On more than a few recent occasions this year,
(Why This Is A Problem,
8/16/2018, 8/24/2018, 8/28/2018,
9/15/2018,
10/6/2018, 10/11/2018, 10/28/2018,
11/17/2018)
I've warned you that things in Kivu Province, DRC, aren't going well with respect to Ebola, and the current outbreak.

They still aren't.

(Note that's only 9 posts out of 300 or so in that time span. This is not "The Ebola Blog", nor ever will be. I'm just better - and righter - on it than ABCCNNBCBS combined, nine days out seven. I concede that's a pretty low bar to get over. For reference, I started paying attention to Ebola in 2014 in the spring, and didn't even blog about it at all here until early August 2014, at which point it was over 1000 cases in W.Africa. Note that right now, we aren't but halfway to that point now. I still beat 99.9999% of the MSM to the punch by about 2 months then. In 2014 terms, we are now where we were in June of 2014. In October 2014, it got to the U.S., and we were off to the races. Think about that timeframe long and hard.)

As you'll note at sites like Peter's BRM or Old NFO's, people familiar with math and common sense (and in Peter's case, Africa itself) are beginning to pick up on things. Before they actually get here, and without me pulling the fire alarm.

Read their posts, and then come back; I'll wait.

- - -

So, let's look at that bastion of accuracy, Wikipedia, and see how they're doing covering it.
Oh, surprise! Not well, with respect to Ebola. Just like Kivu. Color me shocked.

Here is their current graph showing time and cases.
(We'll skip the obligatory caveat in Africa of "If they can count past 20 with their shoes on, if they're not lying to save face", etc. etc.)


















Seems straightforward, right?
Unfortunate growth of the Ebola outbreak currently, but slow, steady and increasing.
So, where does the "Lying" part of "Lying with statistics" show up?
Look at the x-axis (for Common Core grads, that's the horizontal line) which measures time.
Not quite 150ish days, from 8/12018 to present, a couple of weeks from Christmas 2018.
Fair enough.
Now look at the y-axis (again, for the Common Core-ons, that'd be the vertical measurement line on the left side). It doesn't show 0-150, like it should if it were an honest graph.
It instead shows you 0-600.

IOW: It's lying to you, to your face, by a factor of 4X.

Here's what is should look like, it if were an honest graph:
























Sorry if you can't read it now, but that's because I made the time axis correspond 1:1 to the number-of-people-affected axis, by shrinking the x-axis to 1/4 of the original.
Note how the graph from zero to any point- cases, deaths, whatever - is now far more vertical. In layman's terms, that's a viral outbreak liftoff.
Like a Saturn-V moon rocket.

Here's the same graph, but with the typical r-naught exponential growth of Ebola (of r=2) plotted roughly (inaccuracy due entirely to my freehand crayon-like art skills with Paint) with a bold red line.
























Whoopsie. Oh dear! It seems Ebola in Kivu is above that line, substantially.
That means Ebola in Kivu is growing much faster than the unchecked spread would, meaning human activity (stupidity, pre-literacy, unscientific ignorance, the local asswipes burning Ebola Treatment Centers, and hordes of criminal thugs roaming around with AK-47s shooting up medical relief workers, for instance) is causing Ebola to spread there right now more rapidly than simply doing nothing would.

Greeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.

So, how bad is it, really?
Let me help again, with Paint's crayon:
























Holy shit, Batman! The r-naught for deaths isn't 2, it's 4!
For total Ebola cases,  it's 6!!
So, Congolese incompetence and international apathy, unchanged since we started telling you about things this year, is spreading the current DRCongo Ebola outbreak at 2-3 times the speed it would progress if people just walked around doing nothing.

Well-played, fucktards.
You're now improving on 2014 by 2-3 orders of magnitude, and we're still only at Stage 9 (out of 34) levels of death and pestilential spread.

2019 is going to get interesting. In a Chinese curse kind of way.

This thing has now hit a large (Butembo: pop. 1M), if isolated, city already.
That's going to pay yuuuuuuge dividends in deaths, momentarily.

And if it gets to Nairobi (pop. 3M)?
One of the largest cities on the continent Nairobi, international air hub Nairobi?
And it jumps the continent?

Start stocking canned goods, water, ammunition, and concertina wire. Again.
Not necessarily in that order.
(And like you should be already, for a gazillion other contingencies.)

Es kommt.
Nochmal.

Merry Christmas.

31 comments:

tweell said...

Dusting off my crystal ball (outlook hazy) I spy:

President Trump putting restrictions into place when Ebola starts showing up in African cities with airports.

Next, random liberal judges declaring his restrictions to be unconstitutional.

Peter said...

Well graphed, sir. What's more, the numbers show only the cases actually diagnosed and/or reliably reported. In that part of the world, with all the mistrust of authority and (well-founded) fear of strangers, I won't be surprised if the actual number of cases isn't at least three times greater, if not more. They just don't get reported. They stay in the bush with their families, and die . . . and in due course their families die, too, and therefore no-one ever reports that John Smith Esq. and family (or the Kivu equivalent) ain't been around lately.

That part of the world is a logistical, transport and administrative nightmare. Figuratively speaking, the authorities (local, national and international) are trying to treat a sucking chest wound with a Band-Aid. Without glue on it.

NITZAKHON said...

@tweeli:

I won't touch that bet. :(

Ebola could be reprising Yersinia Pestis with bodies everywhere, not just in Africa but in Europe (shudder at thinking that an infected "refugee" gets into one of the camps there and isn't symptomatic, but is contagious, for several days... and even when people start dying it won't be noticed for a while)… and you'll have people screaming that the planes can't be stopped.

Expect China to lock things down in a hurry, though my own experience there this summer tells me that if it gets there and starts, the close quarters will be a double-plus ungood thing.

Right now, for me, the big question is: once the die-off ends, how long does the damned virus last in the open? Or does anyone really know?

MoralFracas said...

https://www.amazon.com/BTO-22-Clipped-Concertina-Galvanized-Length/dp/B07C91TMWH/ref=sr_1_16?ie=UTF8&qid=1544479886&sr=8-16&keywords=concertina+wire

Listen to the man. If they want it, it will come. I haven't been having any fun in a long time.

MF

Aesop said...

@NITZAKHON

Per Canadian studies, about 40 days on solid surfaces (stainless steel counter) in dry cold weather.

In a moist warm environment (temperate to tropical), or with something to feed it, like a corpse?

GOK. God Only Knows.

Fire is your friend. Mr. Road Flare and Mr. Octane should be allowed to go out and play together. The appropriate backpack attire for Ebola Season is an M2-variant flamethrower.

erica ricao said...

I have a question about the contagiousness of this once it finds a new population group. Do the natives of central Africa have any advantages of having a higher immunity to Ebola? Its well known that they're hygiene is not the same as western culture. Does living with the amount of germs the typical African does daily give them an advantage over western populations? I would hope that western populations with better hygiene practices and avoiding the funeral body washing will be an advantage. However is there any studies that suggest western populations may be less immune or more susceptible to contracting contagious diseases from a lack of exposure to the environment that Africa has?

Anonymous said...

1. My biggest concern is that there is an unknown reservoir species in Africa that keeps Ebola alive and available for reinfection. If it gets here, will it establish itself in a similar species, and Ebola becomes Endemic in the US? Or Indonesia, Vietnam, China, India? The gift that keeps on giving.

2. Would you stick around if you were offered the vaccine?

3. What are the chances that vaccinated people could inadvertently infect a loved one by accidentally bringing the virus home through poor infectious control procedures?

4. Is it even possible to ramp up vaccine production to one hundred million or a billion doses? We know Ebola can produce enough virus.

I hope President Trump takes this seriously. We may get past this outbreak, but what about the one in 2021, and 2024, and...

rd

MoralFracas said...

Department of the Army Physical Security
https://www.wbdg.org/FFC/ARMYCOE/FIELDMAN/fm31930.pdf

Merck up 30% since July. Blood money for the Blood.?

Anonymous said...

Ja, es kommt. Gleich um die ecke...
Your blog is an amazing gift, but this is your greatest work.
BG

The Gray Man said...

I do enjoy your Ebola posts, but I do have to say that you shouldn't compete with ABCBSNBCNN... Y'all don't have the same goals.

You're informing and educating. They're lying and embellishing on purpose. Two different games.

Aesop said...

Pile any other relevant questions here; the post answering them tomorrow is already in the on-deck circle.

NITZAKHON said...

If Africa starts seeing significant - i.e., 100,000 or more casualties, and worst, if it spreads to Europe... and Trump grounds planes and leftist judges attempt to overrule him, I think it's safe to conclude that Leftism truly is a death-worshipping cult.

Hmmm. I think I feel a blog post coming on about that.

FYI - shameless self-promotion here - my latest quick hit linkfest.

http://redpilljew.blogspot.com/2018/12/quick-hits-linkfest-december-10-2018.html

Anonymous said...

I'm not following this biology math. If ebola was as contagious as you say, then the last time it was in the US with the sick nurse going to her wedding etc. then it should have taken off. That set of events was an experiment from which contagiousness in the US environment can be estimated. How does that estimate turn out?

Same problem as, somebody put fancy anthrax in envelopes and mailed it during 9/11, but only a dozen-ish people died.

Anonymous said...

Of course Leftism is a death-worshipping cult. Most of the religions are rationalizations for why people have feelings of self-loathing which pre-existed the religious training. Self-loathing is common. Since I can't point to a disease agent, even a purely informational one transmitted by culture, I can't call it a disease. Call it a weak spot in human brains.

lineman said...

So how many cases in the US before you would go into Lockdown mode...Also sent you a reply...

Aesop said...

@Anonymous 6:41
What sick nurse, going to what wedding??
Amber Vinson, not contagious at the time, tried on her wedding dress at a shop in Ohio. Being scrupulous, she noted an increase in her temperature while on that trip, and on her return to Dallas, checked in to hospital, where she was diagnosed with Ebola.

Both infected nurses (who had done everything they were told as far as PPE) were isolated nearly immediately after first showing signs of elevated body temperature, and were not wandering the streets for two weeks while fully contagious and coughing out virus. Unlike just about every infected person in Africa.

In very short order, they were both moved to full BL-IV isolation, because clearly the CDC protocols were fatally flawed (as the infection of two nurses proved rather devastatingly in exactly 21 days), and no one else at THP wanted to play anymore.
The entire ER and ICU staff there threatened to quit if the hospital didn't close.
Given that as Ebola Central, THP had a patient census now in single digits, they shut their doors for several months, and barely avoided bankruptcy.

And at the height of the outbreak, we had exactly one open BL-IV bed left in all of North America.

So you were exactly two patients from Dallas becoming Monrovia, Liberia, at the height of the outbreak.

Followed by the entire country rapidly becoming West Africa.

Ebola with no precautions, in the wild, doubles every 21 days, on average.
Ebola in the US, with full infectious disease precautions and hazmat gear, doubled in 21 days.
Then we stopped f**king around, and put all infectees into Level IV hazmat isolation.

That, and the fact that Duncan was the only contagious person to slip out of W.Africa and into the US, is the only reason the disease didn't take hold here and go all Black Death on us.
Pure, dumb luck.

Getting a grasp on how contagious it is now...?

Anonymous said...

More Questions,

Can we build improvised isolation facilities?. I don't see any reason we couldn't? Isolated, stripped down hospital facilities. Everything goes in, nothing comes out except as ashes, including the dead. Staff are in a clean area on site, stay on site, and when their stint is done, they go into a separate clean 40 day quarantine area. (How do we handle sewage? Are Ozone and UV effective?)

-----

Aid to Africa goes to staging areas. Planes fly into say the Azores International Airport. One side are planes from the US and Europe. They drop off cargo and it is transferred to "African" planes. The African Planes are US and European planes that only fly to Africa and to transfer points. Nothing leaves Africa. No one leaves without going through a quarantine for 40 days. Do the same with ships and shipping.

This will completely collapse the trade and economies in the countries affected by Ebola. Maybe the way to help their economies would be similar to the Milk Dumping in the Depression? Buy the commodity and if it perishable, dump it, dispose of it safely. If it is non-perishable, buy it, store it, treat it, and use it after it is safe. This keeps the African economy going, and the jobs give the people a reason NOT TO FLEE.

This will cost billions, but it will be cheaper than Ebola in America. Would Europe step up and comply and contribute? Would the Democrats and their judges help or hinder?

rd

Aesop said...

Ebola Treatment Centers are exactly that: treatment-only centers made of PVC pipe and tarps, and they get set on fire after the crisis.

No need to involve the Azores, which only complicates things and provides a new virus escape point; mercy flights can unload at the airports in the affected country direct. When you're just pushing cargo pallets off a ramp, it's not a high-risk exposure situation.

Europe would sooner send troops and arms to keep people inside Africa, at bayonet-and gun-point, and the unaffected neighboring countries would gladly pony up the bodies to man that perimeter.

Phase II would be napalm.

horsewithnonick said...

I hope you are correct about ignorance and chaos in the DRC being the multiplier in play here, and not something nasty happening with the virus itself.

NITZAKHON said...

@Anonymous:

RE the Democrats and their judges... it would not surprise me if one of them ruled Ebola-infected people had a Constitutional right to be brought to the US for treatment at taxpayer expense.

Anonymous said...

I was in Washington DC 2 weeks ago for a major federal health conference and I heard among others the Director of the CDC speak, he talked at length about the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and acknowledged it is not under control because of the security situation there and just 4 months in it will no doubt become the largest Ebola outbreak in a single country. He cited 442 cases and 210 deaths (as of 2 weeks ago) and expected it to reach between 1,500 and 3,000 with refugees flooding into Uganda that might be carrying it. Not good but no one is hiding this information.

Anonymous said...

Are the appropriate questions for the US: When? Where? How bad?

The outbreak seems to have transitioned from a problem, to a predicament; solutions to adaptations.

Joe

Aesop said...

Fair enough.
Care to point out the accompanying MSM news story on that?
Anywhere?

CNN?
SeeBS?
NBC?
ABC?
NPR?

Beuller? Ferris Beuller...?

Stop me if you've heard this one...

Nobody gave two shits last time either, when the outbreak had reached >7K cases, i.e. 14X as big as the current outbreak.
And only because US Patient Zero showed up in Dallas at the end of September, contrary to every published assurance from everyone in authority, inclusive, from POTUS down to the night-shift janitor at the CDC, all saying "it'll never get here", "we'll catch it immediately" and "we know how to handle this".

You can perhaps understand my skepticism that any learning has occurred in D.C. since 2014.
They've changed pitchers, but the management is exactly the same bunch of "we've got this" sh*theads it's always been.

Anonymous said...

Aren’t these potential demorat voters who would enhance our immigration objectives?

Recruit them for us citizenship before it’s to late

Stephen J. said...

What ended the previous outbreaks?

Aesop said...

No effing clue, for me or TPTB. My guess is that it killed all the stupid people and there was no one left to infect in the high-risk zones.
For the smaller outbreaks, it usually killed everyone (or 85-90% of everyone) in a given remote village, and ran out of available bodies.

For 2014, the same thing, but on a larger scale. The actual infection and death rates were at least 3X the "official" numbers from those countries, and everybody knew it all along, for months.

So figure something like at least 50,000 dead out of maybe 70,000 infected. Maybe even more.

No one will ever be sure.

Entire villages just disappeared there, people who understood they were going to die just wandered off into the jungle, and they were bulldozing bodies in towns into mass graves.

Tucanae Services said...

"I'm not following this biology math."

The case here in Dallas concerning the Liberian and nurse was a stroke of luck for the most part and bravery on the nurses part. The patient was placed in a high level quarantine facility fairly quickly and not in the general ward where it could have spread given the chance.

The downside is the hazmat crew that was doing the 'clean up, aisle 6' I believe in the early go could have made things worse. ex. They were using pressure washers to clean down the sidewalk at the apartment.

JnotJ said...

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2018/12/in-the-congo-ebola-is-spreading-to-urban-areas/

Why are your reports different?

Aesop said...

What makes you think they're different?
Show your work.

JnotJ said...

I admit, I did read it wrong. : ) I wasn't being accusatory, just mistaken. This outbreak concerns me.. especially since a disease can hop across the pond very easily.

Aesop said...

That's exactly why it concerns me.