1,897 deaths yesterday in the U.S. In one day.
Good thing this isn't real, or that might be worrisome. [/sarc]
The absolute last "Bridge Out" sign before even the hardiest morons will have to admit this is really a thing, is if, heaven forbid, this ever gets to numbers above 7000 deaths/day. That's the number of daily deaths from all causes in a normal year (±2.6M of them/yr): heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, shootings, getting trampled by buffalo, eaten by feral pigs, etc.
If we overtop that, there's no more thin trees to hide behind before the peak of obvious fact appears, that people are dying now, faster, and it can't be imaginary "packing all deaths into Kung Flu" black helicopter horseshit.
(It really shouldn't even take that: the number of, for example, car accidents or shootings now is waaaaaaaaaaay down, because no one's out and about. A normal night for us at work is 5-10 car accidents; we're amazed if we see 1 now. Vehicle accident stats and crime numbers everywhere are doing a mega-nosedive. Deaths from cardio-, cardiorespiratory, and pneumonia deaths are off the charts. That should be a less-than-subtle hint, even to space cadets, but you can't argue someone out of a position using facts and logic, if they didn't use facts and logic to get to where they are in the first place.)
That doesn't mean sanity will break out, especially among the chemtrail lunatard fringe; it just means the tinfoil millinery contingent will have to STFU, or risk a good and well-deserved public stoning every time they open their yawps. NTTAWWT.
24 comments:
What about pants? Is asking people to cover their asses and junk just another form of yellow star?
Hitler wore pants. If you wear pants, YOU'RE LITERALLY HITLER!!!!!!!!!!1111111!!!!!!!!
I just figured I'd get that out there before Mars figures it out.
On a serious note, given cheap, frequent testing, I don't think we'd really need any kind of indicator like wristbands. Have a bouncer with an idiot-proof test kit at the door, you don't get in until you test negative. Have this at the workplace door, at the grocery store, at the hospital and the church. A week or two of that and everybody would either be staying home or virus free.
That's a long time away. We'll very likely all get it and most of us get over it before the FDA allows anything that helpful.
Don't know that we will EVER know the truth of either the origin, the actual spread, or the actual rate of deaths... Stanford has done a retrospective look on blood draws and found indicators that it was present in California as early as December. You simply cannot test everyone to get actual numbers. And yes, the death rate is truly sad, but even those numbers are apparently getting 'fudged' by labeling anyone who dies as a victim, even if they die of something else. Do appreciate your reports from the front lines. Thank you.
Hi Aesop, I appreciate your willingness to share your knowledge, experience and uncommon sense with all. Even the brain damaged. Stay safe as possible. You are in my prayers.
History proves you wrong. There have been pandemics before. We have never ordered people to stay home because of it. Period.
The difference is that now we can do something about them. Note also the US was effectively a fascist dictatorship thanks to Wilson and WWI when the Spanish Flu hit, his war to end wars took a higher priority. You have to go back to the 1889–90 flu pandemic, perhaps the third plague pandemic which hit San Francisco.
Just glancing at the article, there's a lot that sounds familiar. Hmmm, can't find anything else big that hit the US, but we had plenty of epidemics in the 19th Century, and we got hit some from the second cholera pandemic. Anything prior to 1850 runs into issues with the germ theory of disease not having been established (and I just came across someone saying this was a major factor in the South losing the Civil War, when a French trained doctor might> have helped early on if he'd realized his lack of gunshot treatment experience wasn't in the least important).
Once again, you are getting the very concept of liberty ass backwards because of fear. Period. End of story.
Fear of losing 10 million Americans to COVID-19. Most people would say that's a rational fear, because they're not stone cold sociopaths like you.
If the only solution you have to supercarriers is to give government the power to force everyone to wear color coded wristbands on pain of imprisonment or death , knowing full damn well that said precedent will be abused, then I'd rather die.
"That can be arranged." But we're probably too soft.
Because the fact is, if it takes 3 million dead, myself included to stop the U.S. turning into communist china, as you are advocating for, it is worth it.
Many of those 3 million not volunteering for it, unless your postulating starting hot shooting Civil War 2.0 for the right to lethally infect Those Who Are No Longer Your Countrymen, because like Charles in VA, you are literally placing yourself "beyond the pale" of civilization, a self-declared outlaw.
Over legitimate but as of yet unrealized concerns about our ruling class. Which you seem to have failed to notice want us dead, not merely more controlled as you fear. In that light, you're a silly accelerationist.
The current "social distancing" garbage is NOT quarantining by ANY definition one wants to discuss.
As a Boomer who had an older father (dad was 43 when I was born in 51) and having had older relatives, I have contemporaneous word of mouth data on what QUARANTINE actually means and this carp ain't it.
Quarantine is used PROPERLY when the disease involved has no KNOWN cure, has a fatality rate that causes issues, and is easily transmitted to others.
The sick individual is usually confined to their home and the County Public Health Nurse hangs a "QUARANTINE" sign on the door and you stay in the house until you are either well or dead. EXITING the house USUALLY included being returned, with the application of a Cocobolo wood scalp massage to encourage you to follow the quarantine requirements.
These are appropriate rules for this stuff as well as for the Whooping cough-TB-etc diseases that they have been used on.
And yes, the death rate is truly sad, but even those numbers are apparently getting 'fudged' by labeling anyone who dies as a victim, even if they die of something else.
If they had lab confirmed COVID-19 and died, it's an extremely good bet SARS-CoV-2 pushed them over the edge, they didn't have the health margin to survive it.
At most you can subtract the portion who would have statistically died of other things, pathogens, broken hip (reduces life expectancy to one year, a friend with an aged mother told me), etc. Stuff we do have data on, and that 3rd or 4th hand is now being completely dominated by COVID-19. Exponential growth is one of the most frightening things in the universe, responsible for, among other things, nuclear weapons.
@Anon,
And the exact problem is, that due to lack of effective testing before now, most carriers infected are asymptomatic for days to weeks, but manage to kill 1-5%, there is no cure, and it has an r-naught of approximately between 4-9.
So until we know who is sick, we're sensibly treating everyone as such, for the time being.
And the small-minded gaspers are losing their shit.
Would that the cocobolo shampoo were more liberally applied in these times.
Because apparently this virus confers no immunity.
You can get it, over and over, again and again.
We're going to need stronger evidence of that than for example the latest paper out of the PRC, which I guess I'll now have to look at, to turn schemes like your's into necessities. But weak immune system responses to weak infections, don't remember if that was actually put to the test of reinfection, could indeed be a serious issue.
Maybe we'd best hope for a vaccine that creates a strong and somewhat lasting response. The CCP had better be praying to whatever twisted gods they worship that this isn't a major issue, because the consequences of their gifting the world a demi-Satan Bug won't be nice.
Meanwhile, your scheme needs serious work to deal with the false negative issue. I'm not going to insist you do it, see my previous reasons why I think it's entirely theoretical for a year or two, but it is a gaping hole that people like Mars Ultor will take advantage of.
I realize the ChiCom sourcing of reinfection is problematic, but nothing actual free world testing can't confirm or deny.
As for false negatives, they get treated the same as true positives: quarantine, contact trace, and surround.
When you weed out the 99%, you have a lot more resources for the 1%.
"Clean the hell out of cracks and corners; the middle of the deck will take care of itself." - old Navy CPO wisdom
As for false negatives, they get treated the same as true positives: quarantine, contact trace, and surround.
After they've infected someone, because by definition you don't know it's a false negative at the POC. Which makes the green armbands a lot less useful, especially if the inherent false negative rate is noticeably higher than 1% as I gather it is from sampling issues, what parts of the body have viruses when in the progression of the disease, etc. While I have no hard data on that, even 1% requires your scheme to maintain a surveillance network for the leakers.
There are no perfect solutions.
Vaccines, besides taking too long, don't always work either.
After four tries with zero titer on one series, ask me how I know.
We're going to have to maintain surveillance on this for months to years.
But we can get out of quarantine for it in a month or two.
Shutdowns and mass quarantines have a fairly extensive history in the USA. Yellow fever caused them to be applied multiple times, for example - just yesterday Drudge had a link to a story about the 1873 one in Memphis, where the steamboats were not permitted to dock for multiple weeks. And of course Typhoid Mary, who did nothing more than cook meals like she was paid to do, for which they locked her up for the rest of her natural life. And the courts were fine with it.
The second most gobsmacking thing about this situation is how various models and projections of potential problems were put forward, measures were proposed to improve the situation from what the projections were saying, the actual situation is indeed improved, and the response is to scream that the projections were obviously wrong and the ameliorative measures need to be stopped at once. I'd say Darwin in action except there's no guarantee the virus would hit the right people.
The MOST gobsmacking thing about this situation is how the liberty-minded/constitutionalist right - in fact all aspects of the dissident right - are suddenly racing each other to align themselves publicly and visibly with the virus and against the general public health. It's the most self-destructive political move I have ever seen. It makes carrying Hitler flags look downright quaint and neighborly. Short of a freaking miracle where the virus just vaporizes itself, it will make that entire political perspective utterly radioactive to the general public for a decade or more.
The MOST gobsmacking thing about this situation is how the liberty-minded/constitutionalist right - in fact all aspects of the dissident right - are suddenly racing each other to align themselves publicly and visibly with the virus and against the general public health. It's the most self-destructive political move I have ever seen. It makes carrying Hitler flags look downright quaint and neighborly. Short of a freaking miracle where the virus just vaporizes itself, it will make that entire political perspective utterly radioactive to the general public for a decade or more.
Indeed, it's appalling, even more so since I considered myself to be a member of the dissident right. Now is A Time For Choosing, far too many are choosing genocide, and that will be remembered. For the "it's just the flu, bro" angle of this, see this comment I made in a previous topic.
I don't even have any idea what sort of political home I might have now or in the future.
There are no perfect solutions.
Vaccines, besides taking too long, don't always work either.
After four tries with zero titer on one series, ask me how I know.
And you've never heard of herd immunity??
Generalizing from your own anecdotal experience to piss so hard on the hope for effective and safe vaccines is silly, we know they can work. We just don't know if and how much we can make them work for SARS-CoV-2. Which would make your scheme work even better.
We're going to have to maintain surveillance on this for months to years.
But we can get out of quarantine for it in a month or two.
Indeed, for example being on the lookout for antigenic mutations. Or as Matt Bracken has postulated, a COVID-20 gift from the PRC, this time deliberately. One would hope infectious disease control public health will get a boost from this.
But "in a month or two?" If you were dictator of the US, maybe, but in a longer time scale, but short of that? I'll repeat, we won't try something this dire until we give up on vaccines. From now to then, unless someone comes up with a realistic cunning plan that can be implemented in the middle of our cold civil war, no way Trump could do this, it's hard to see how we're going to avoid an extended lock down, periodically loosened, or the genocide option.
Because apparently this virus confers no immunity.
You can get it, over and over, again and again.
Do we actually know this yet? If it's true, it would seem to be rather unusual.
Because apparently this virus confers no immunity.
You can get it, over and over, again and again.
Do we actually know this yet? If it's true, it would seem to be rather unusual.
You can get colds year after year after year ... probably because the corona virus which causes colds is always mutating, so even if your immune system is tuned up to fight the last one, the next one is too new. We haven't ruled that out yet for this new Chinese virus.
The "quarantine" "lockdown" in Ohio...
Ohio is not NYC maybe because the state imposed restrictions fairly quickly after first 3 cases ( 3/9) "lockdown" midnight 3/16.
Fortunately - or not some days, the state counts me as an "essential worker" because I do repairs/ maintenance on rental homes for a guy who owns way too many of them.
Anyhow - had to go to local Lowe's this afternoon.
FFS - whole families wandering around...
These are the people who are gonna continue to spread the Wuhan Wheeze and extend the "lockdown".
I know guys in the trades and in the restaurant biz who are most likely gonna go under due to this.
Now that they've freaked out about being forced to either shut down,or operate at a way lower volume of business - most are saying fuck it - we started out with next to nothing,we can do it again.
They don't want to get this crap either.
The shit I do for a living?
There's gonna be one hell of a backlog of work once the KungFlu is tamped down.
Yeah - sucks right now - but...better to stay the fuck home and inside as much as possible for me. Already been to ER for upper respiratory infection since WuFlu appeared - don't want to go back.
Everyone knew this was coming.
Those who paid more attention to sportsball,and flipped out and bought TP and pallets of bottled water,instead of useful shit - like say food for a few months - deserve to be removed from the gene pool...
Thank you Aesop for posting factual info - based on things like science,facts,and available research/data.
NC Mom here,
Don't shut down, please. People are freaking. Your site has been so informative to me for years. I never comment, but read faithfully. I actually have been wanting to toss an idea, but have been afraid of scathing comments to a truly honest question.
My immune depressed daughter, due to psoriatic arthritis, HUMIRA injections, had the swine flu(confirmed diagnosis) then. I had quarantined her in my room. The other 4 kids and husband not allowed upstairs to my room. Was very worried about respiratory. Had nebulizer ready. I slept with her every night for 3 weeks: coughing, boogies, fever. I have never had the flu, never had a flu shot, never got any symptoms from her.
Isn't this a similar virus?
I'm sick about the shut down but...... Birx said today that they tested 250.000 cross section, 11 yr olds to 85+ for a statistical marker. Wouldn't this have been better served by tested truly essential people like processing plants to get our meat, milk, schools back to work?
Please, Aesop, be kind. I am shopping for my elderly church people weekly. Gloves, mask, distancing. I LOVE the comments here AND the true and appreciated snarkiness.
I read everything I can about everything I can and have been prepping for years. I have a table in my house just for others. I am prepared for my grown children, parents, and 99 yr old grandmom to be here. I'm no
stranger to what's what.
NC Mom again,
Do you think I have some kind of immunity to virus? Serious question. Really
I just saw an article citing Korean scientists talking about presumably recovered patients getting reinfected. Or, having a dormant infection reactivated. No one really knows for sure right now. https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea/
Do we actually know this yet? If it's true, it would seem to be rather unusual.
You can get colds year after year after year ... probably because the corona virus which causes colds is always mutating, so even if your immune system is tuned up to fight the last one, the next one is too new. We haven't ruled that out yet for this new Chinese virus.
Is the reason you can repeatedly get colds mostly driven by the sheer variety of unique viruses, not all near clones of each other, that exist?
As far as people stating as fact or as highly likely that the SARS-COV-2 can reinfect people over and over, it is a priori highly unlikely to be the case because 1) this virus has literally only been infecting humans since last November or so 2) it is reportedly extremely simple, just 10 proteins and 3) the specific tests to detect it have only existed since January or so.
Point 1 means that it is astronomically unlikely that the virus has evolved tricky behaviors in a matter of months that have probably taken other pathogens, like Herpes or Hepatits, millennia or longer of infecting humans to evolve. Point 2 suggests it would be less likely that the virus, as is, would acquire the machinery to short-circuit the immune system in a highly unusual way.
Point 3 suggests that the sensitivity of this or any other novel medical test, especially complex ones that require well-executed protocols and difficult processing, will be somewhat low. Many well-established medical tests have sensitivities in the 90 percent or lower range. Run a 90-percent-sensitivity test on 1,000,000 people with a disease, and 100,000 will come back negative for it.
A pool of 100,000 sensational but medically shaky anecdotes of patients undertaking a harrowing fight against the lethal coronavirus, only to later be reinfected, would leave any good whorenalist salivating.
NC Mom
If I may answer,
It sounds like you're doing everything right with the gloves, mask and social distancing.
I'm not a medical person but maybe you just have the right genes or are eating right or taking the right stuff.
I don't have kids to take care of but do have a 90 year old mother that I visit every few days at her senior citizen apt complex to do drop off food, paper products, clean laundry and take her dirty laundry and take out her trash.
I wear vinyl or nitrile gloves, a face mask when going through the common areas (and certainly when going to the stores) and wash my hands at her apt pretty much after I touch anything.
I myself just ordered some Quercetin (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01MU30S6Z/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1), which is a Zinc ionophore (helps zinc get into the cell) due to a comment by a poster named KnightsofNee on a previous thread.
I currently take a Centrum multivitamin, and Selenium 250 mcg and zinc 50mg, plus vitamin C and D supplements.
There is only so much you can do if you have to be out and about taking care of others.
Sounds like you're doing all the right things (and that's why it's missed you).
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/04/mechmedic-sends-covid-19-had-us-all-fooled-but-now-we-might-have-finally-found-its-secret/
American partisan has a good writep on a possible mechanism how the virus works.
It is possible that what doctors are seeing is not pneumonia.
Rather the loss of iron in the hemoglobin.
People are literally suffocating because of anemia... the Iron is there... but now toxic cuz it is displaced by the virus and is in free form in the blood...
Have heard this from several different sources last few days.
Just maybe?
It would also explain why malaria drugs work.
comeandmakeit
You can get colds year after year after year ... probably because the corona virus which causes colds is always mutating, so even if your immune system is tuned up to fight the last one, the next one is too new.
Ummm, no? The issue of "the common cold" being caused by hundreds of different virus strains that are not coronaviruses has already been addressed, and they are unique among the RNA viruses in having a proofreading mechanism. I'm not aware of our having determined that any coronavirus that infects humans undergoes antigen shift that would be a problem with vaccines, although MERS-CoV was probably the only one we seriously studied WRT this prior to SARS-CoV-2 showing up.
And we got some distance in making vaccines for MERS-CoV, now we're going to find out if they work for SARS-CoV-2. I'd say we have a good chance, but by no means a a certain one, we all should be planning for either outcome.
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