Friday, April 17, 2020

Brilliant




















You're on your effing own. Suture self.

Why stop at one peak, in NYFC, when you can have 49 more, or 100?

30K dead?
Pfft.
Let's go for double or triple that amount.
'Murica! #Yes We Can!

By the by, China tried to claim they were "over" this too, a couple of weeks back.
So when they opened up the bridge from Wuhan to Jiang Xi, the locals from Jiang Xi (In China, mind, not in Maine or Idaho) marched out, flipped over the police cars on the connecting bridge.



Shock of shocks, China's now admitting things are out of control there again.

Go ahead, learn the lessons the hard way. Grab the hot stove with both hands.
"As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!" 

- Rudyard Kipling, The Gods Of the Copybook Headings

 




7 comments:

GamegetterII said...

At least some of us can stay home and watch the epic stupidity play out.
I may be bankrupt before it ends - but we have food,the ability to purify water from questionable sources, generator and fuel,medical supplies,ammo,and skills.
And I started 90 tomato plants today,along with a wide assortment of veggies.
Got a half dozen piglets coming in a couple weeks.
Going fishing tomorrow at friends property to boost food supply.
Said property is where we're gonna go when things start looking dicey here.
Between Cleveland and Akron Ohio.
Too many ferals too close...

johnnyrotten said...

Between Cleveburgh and Akron? Immediately go buy more ammo please. If one is in Cleveland, there’s nowhere viable to go except south or West into Lakewood/Rocky River for looting.

Ned2 said...

Things that make you go hmmmmmmm....

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

Y'all need to calm the fuck down.
Making decisions while you're emotional is a recipe for disaster.

Ned2 said...

In case you missed the conclusions,
Quote:"Conclusions

The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections."

Carry on.........

Aesop said...

@Ned2,

Santa Clara County has a population of 1,927,852 (US Census 2019 estimate).
They have 1870 confirmed cases.
They have 73 deaths.
U.S. testing is running at 641/100,000 in CA, so we can assume that Santa Clara has tested ± 12,000 persons, all symptomatic (or else they wouldn't have been tested, for the most part).

The as-yet non-reviewed study alleges that infection rates are actually running at between 2.49% and 4.16%, or 48,000 - 81,000 people.

The lower end of their estimate puts the CFR at 0.15%, slightly worse than annual flu.
The upper end puts it at 0.09%, even milder than annual flu.

Which only runs into wee problems like the fact that such a CFR is not observed in any coronavirus any place and time in civilization since ever, and fails to explain the situations in Italy, and NYFC, where they've been stacking corpses up like cordwood, and burying them in mass graves, for 1-2 months, and have people strapped into ventilators right and left, exactly like never happens in annual flu season in recorded history either.

The survey also relied on 3,330 recruits from Facebook in Silicon Valley, rather than actually randomly selecting county residents.
And one of the authors, Ioannidis, has a Gimli-sized axe to grind, having gone on record loudly and frequently in alleging this outbreak is a nothingburger, since ever. This is my shocked face noting that's exactly the conclusion reached.
they controlled for zip code, sex, and ethnicity.
Why not for age?
Why not for co-morbidities, like obesity, diabetes, hypertension, coronary or pulmonary disease?
In short, they probably grabbed a lot of tech-savvy young hipsters, and didn't garner a lot of senior citizens with a wee bit more skin in the game.
That's known in the trade as a statistical fail.

It also fails to explain why, if it's so damned mild, things are so much different in Los Angeles, let alone Detroit, Atlanta, or New Orleans.
And NYFC. To get 11000 dead there, you'd need to give it to half the state, and the entire city of NY, inclusive. Every swinging Richard in the Five Boroughs, and that would only get you to 9000 dead. You'd have to give it to everyone on long Island, and most of Westchester County too. Does that sound anything close to reasonable to you?

When someone's shiny new map doesn't match the terrain, it isn't the terrain that's wrong.

In short, it's about as valid as a poll on whether Trump should be impeached, taken at either Rush Limbaugh's website, or Daily Kos; take your pick.

When someone not heavily invested in the answers tests 19,000 persons (1%) actually selected at random in Santa Clara County, and the efficacy and accuracy of the antibody test in regard to Kung Flu alone can be verified to 99.9%, I'll be interested in the results of that sample analysis.

Until then, you've been hornswoggled, and the survey isn't worth the toilet paper upon which it should be printed.

But keep 'em coming. Someone somewhere may actually shed some light on this, instead of just pushing the b.s. around.

lineman said...

Stay Safe out there Brother to bad fortunes didn't bring you out this way...

Anonymous said...

The testing was done almost two weeks ago, April 4-5. A lot has happened in those two weeks.

We need more antibody testing. Real, random testing of fairly large numbers.
I recommend we do it in various places, including Washington, CA, and NYFC. How many people are immune when the deaths start decreasing?

We also need some isolated rural area data. Are they still unexposed virgin fields for this Chinese Coronavirus to infect?

RE