Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Suture Self















NYFC has as many flu deaths in one month as they get from the flu in an entire YEAR, and math-resistant fucktards are still yapping about "but this is no worse than the flu".

If you can't figure out which is worse, I can't help you.

Apparently, for some level of morons and/or psychotics, until NYFC starts knolling the body bags in Central Park, those 1000+ dead people didn't happen.

Here's your other fun thought:
On 3/19, the entire U.S had 4000 Kung Flu cases.
On 4/1, we have over 4000 deaths from it here.

Today, we have 190,000 cases (and it went up yesterday alone by 26,000 cases).
So, let's see where we are on deaths in two weeks, and see if today's case rate spike is just from more testing, or the lag between cases versus deaths. (I don't know, but if it ends up working like that, this isn't over on April 30th, or even May 30th.)

Currently, the CDC is projecting the peak in mid- to late-April, and somewhere in the vicinity of 100K deaths.

So no matter what, this is still the ramping-up phase. Peak is still off in the misty distance.
Hang in there.

The idiots licking toilet seats because they're immortal, and this isn't real, will have their reward in due course.

48 comments:

Termite said...


Sweden is trying the contrarian approach.........at least for now.

https://unherd.com/2020/03/all-eyes-on-the-swedish-coronavirus-experiment/


And as per the Jerusalum Post, Israeli researchers have made real progress on a COVID-19 vaccine.
Bibi has been informed it's ready for animal testing.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-researchers-made-significant-progress-in-coronavirus-vaccine-623133

Jonathan H said...


From what I've read, Italy and Louisiana are counting all deaths of someone infected with the virus, regardless of what killed them. Have you seen a solid source on how deaths are being counted in various places?
I have read sources that say that some areas are counting deaths as anyone who dies infected with the virus, while other places are counting only those who die due to the virus. I would like to see more information on who is being counted where - for example, is NYC inflating their deaths by counting the way Italy does? I can see Cuomo ordering that because he thinks it will either hurt Trump or get him more aid.

Anonymous said...

Likewise in Ohio, they report that the deceased had the corona virus but do not say death was caused by corona virus. Where can you get facts when it is in the states best interest to inflate (lie) the numbers for more federal dollars?

Matrick said...

The death figures will be inflated due to the way they're recording them and the fact that widespread CV19 testing is occurring in hospitals. Normally, the pneumonia death of a very old or sick person might be caused by flu but not recorded as such because there was no testing. On the flip side, anyone who dies in hospital now who also tests positive for CV19 will be added to the stats.

I'm not saying that CV19 isn't very nasty, I'm just saying that the stats are making it seem more deadly than it is.

The Gray Man said...

What’s your experience in healthcare? In my hospital, and the ones I’ve worked in (the list includes Shands in Gainesville) they don’t go without flu testing. If they cough, they get a flu test. If they have a headache, they get a flu test. If they have a fever, they get a flu test. If they have an ache, they get a flu test. Who are these people dying in hospitals from the flu but having it blamed totally on something else because they never got a flu test? Because wherever they are, they’re not at any places I’ve worked.

It’s more likely that someone would die from COVID and have THAT blamed on something else due to lack of testing rather than your scenario.

The Gray Man said...

Widespread COVID testing is still a dream in 90% of the country. Flu testing is widespread everywhere. You’ve got this backwards.

Anonymous said...

Other than the first comment you all are a bunch of morons.

Pre-existing condition, managed, decent to good quality of life.

Along comes KungFlu.. and you're dead.

But of course, its not because of KungFlu, see, there were other things going on.

If you are alive despite other problems and KungFlu comes along and takes you out YOU WERE KILLED BY KUNGFLU!!! It *should* be obvious as sunrise. Sure the pre-existing made CoronaChan's job easier but he still administered the coup-de-grace.

One thing I've learned from KungFlu - I have greatly, like multiple orders of magnitude, underestimated the power and extent of stupid in this world.

Anonymous said...

Update to my 0507 post.. the opening comment is for commenters at 0446 and previous.

Anonymous said...

First hand reports of testing suppression of people with confirmed exposure and symptoms. Unsure why. Posited at CA's place that it's either wanting to keep J6P calm as he heads toward the Morbark or they want to milk the CFR into another "bailout package". Those are the two potential reasons for suppression that I come up with. If you watch Dr. Birx in the presser yesterday she's clearly signaling that there is suppression occurring. There's millions of unused tests out there. Why? Again thanks for your reporting on all of this.

Bee Ess said...

Terrifying amateur numbers from my spreadsheet...
Considering a 21 day lapse from untested to dead.
Cases:
Worldwide: 3/11/20 - 127,863

Deaths:
Worldwide: 4/1/2020 - 43,291

Rough CFR:
Worldwide: 33.8%

Now, i know these numbers are highly skewed based on variables x+y+z, but... fuck. me.
Someone correct my variables PLEASE!

Anonymous said...

One thing I haven't seen anywhere except an earlier 2nd and 3rd order effects post here, somewhere, I'm too lazy to look for it, is the effect all these lockdowns are going to have on the economy and the banks.

26 states have issued quarantine orders. President Trump on 31-MAR asked that everyone, across the country, stay home for the entire month of April. A couple of states have extended their quarantine to end of May. Effectively, the states on both coasts, from the Caribbean/Mexico border to the Canadian border are locked down and have been for 2-3 weeks depending on the state. The quarantine extends west from the Atlantic to the Mississippi in some areas. These states/areas are the engines of the American economy.

All of these people are not going to be able to pay their rent or mortgages. Businesses will not be able to pay their business loans and/or building mortgages. No one is buying cars or new/existing homes.

No one is talking about the effect all of these quarantines will have on the banks. The banking industry faces a tsunami of defaults that will kill them and all of their depositors. There isn’t enough money in the UNIVERSE to bail out this puppy without Weimer/Zimbabwe style inflation.

Old folks with savings accounts and IRA’s will be wiped out and have to go back to work to survive, myself included, IF they can find a job.

That $2Trillion gift from CONgress last week or whenever it was signed? Pisshole in the snow. Anyone that thinks $1200.00 is going to do them anything but delay the pain by a week or two is delusional, just like CONgress.

Nemo

Aesop said...

What Gray Man said.

The number of deaths in Italy are up hundreds of percent from last year.
What variable changed?
Kung Flu.

The cause of death is "respiratory failure", not "Covid-19".
Just like the cause of death is "cardiorespiratory arrest" when you get shot in the head, and your heart stops beating, not "bullet to the brain".

People are dropping like flies because they got infected with Kung Flu, not the 17 co-morbid conditions that made them susceptible, and with which they could have lived into their 80s and 90s.

Anybody who cannot grasp this probably needs a map to instruct them in walking and chewing gum.
And anyone you read, anywhere, who suggests that "all deaths" anywhere are being blamed on Kung Flu, willy-nilly, is an unredeemed jackass. All deaths of people who suddenly stop breathing, especially after a week or two on a ventilator, at any age? Possible. people who fall into wood chipeprs or get hit by a bus blamed on Kung Flu?
Utterly recockulous.


@Bee Ess,
I'm not even remotely suggesting a CFR north of 3%.
But as this grows, even that leads to the conclusion that while the peak is being reached, the number of deaths lags about 14 days, because so many are being infected so fast, that by the time two weeks passes, in two weeks you've infected 30-35X more people then than you had on any Day Zero, leading to that number infected then becoming the Number Dead by the end of that lag.
IOW, if I have 30 people infected on a given day, and 14 days later, I have 1000 infected, 3% of that is, indeed 30.

So if there are 100,000 infected on Day X, and 14 days later, there are something close to 3M infected, those 100K are the number of current infectees that can be expected to die.

The wider this grows, the more that will die.
But it will stop growing, at some point. Hopefully well before it infects 8B people.
It is not, however, likely to kill half of them.

Ominous Cowherd said...

I'll guess that the ratio of positive:negative test results is indicative of whether the new case numbers are counting cases, or tests. In Alaska there have been 3,700 tests and 119 confirmed cases. The ratio is 119:3,700. That probably indicates that Alaska's increase rate measures the spread of virus rather than the spread of testing - for now at least.

If half or more of the tests are coming back positive, the increase rate is probably driven strictly by the testing rate.

Aesop said...

@Nemo,

Mortgages get frozen. Problem solved.
This isn't going to break anyone if you freeze the movement and transfer of money to match the freeze on economic activity.
It will merely be a couple/three months without profit.
If I'm not making money, I don't get anything.
So I don't pay my rent, and my landlord gets nothing.
So he doesn't pay his loan, so the bank gets nothing.
And none of us pays taxes on all that nothing, so the .Gov pulls no taxes from each of us.
At the end of that day, no one is out anything but the time that passed.
You have a mortgage or a car loan? It simply gets extended by X payments missed.
You don't suddenly require people to pay back the 2 (or 5) months of missed payments. You just move the end date of the lease/loan/mortgage up by 2 (or 5, or whatever) months.
Your 30-year fixed is now a 30-year and X months fixed.
Your car gets paid off X months later.
Status quo ante.

The $1200 is intended to keep you in groceries for the interim, not pay up your payments all the way to fully current in one fell swoop, because no one is giving you a hamburger today in return for payment back next Tuesday.

But you're not going to roll up your property and abscond with it, you're just going to finish your payments on owning it later, and miss you payment for renting it now completely.

The economy for this year may look like crap that way, but a year from now will look like a year ago, in 0.2 seconds.

The only joker in the deck is inflation from the $2T Porkculous Package.
Handing government an unlimited credit card under the guise of a national emergency isn't going to work again and again, or we wil be Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela, in about a New York Minute.

Ominous Cowherd said...

Someone correct my variables PLEASE!
@Bee Ess, your deaths number is sort of OK. Your worldwide cases number is totally bogus. Nobody has any clue how many actually have the disease outside of Iceland and perhaps South Korea. You are trying to compute a fraction, but you don't know the denominator at all.

Take last week's deaths and today's count of recovered, and compute deaths/(deaths+recovered). That's a very rough estimate of CFR that will probably have a consistent bias as long as we're in the exponential phase of the pandemic. At least those numbers aren't totally bogus, and at least they are correlated to the numbers we should be using but will never have.

Compute this separately for each country, or for each state in the US. The medical systems are different, the treatments are different and the races of virus and victim are different, so we have to expect different outcomes in different places.

Ominous Cowherd said...

Mortgages get frozen. Problem solved.
That would actually work, sorta-kinda. Therefore, gonna guess that won't be how it's finally handled.
Ask yourself: ``What's the stupidest thing they could do? What's the second stupidest?'' Those are our top candidates for the eventual official policy, in this circumstance and every circumstance.

I try to be cynical, but it's hard to be cynical enough.

Aesop said...

When you turn them loose, government never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

Korea initially stomped on this, because they had a working test, and 6 times our hospital capacity.

Our CDC screwed up the test kits, and for two months, lacking data, we had @$$holes In Charge holding Mardi Gras, sending people to huge Chinese New year celebrations, and letting 6M people/day ride the subways in NYFC.

Now, NYFC and Nawlins are both ass-deep in alligators.
Despite his usual idiocy, Gov. Gabbin' Nuisance here in Califrutopia stomped down the outbreak by locking down the state, and unlike New Yawk, CA is currently a backwater in the virus sweepstakes.

So they aren't all morons all the time, but that's definitely the way to bet.

Clayton W. said...

Deferring payments on Mortgages and Loans might work, although there is still the interest increase that needs to be accounted for.

However it doesn't work for Leases and rentals unless you extend the payments past when you have use of the property. There is no way that will happen.

Besides, unless we can isolate EVERYONE such that every single case is gone the disease will just take off once people get out of isolation.

Our only real hope is to find an effective treatment quickly enough. I doubt the economy will last more than 3 more weeks.

Ned2 said...

What about food and utilities?
That's a significant chunkochange for most, especially young families.

We're lucky we've prepped for something like this but most are going to get violently restless.
As with any disaster, the biggest killer is the psychological effect. Uncertainty is something most people don't handle well.
All of a sudden there will be a rush on everything, truckers will start to say fuck it and stay home etc...you know the drill. I wouldn't want to be within 50 miles of even a medium sized city when that happens.

As far as the mortality rate with this thing, I think we're already at the point where that's a redundant mental exercise. It doesn't really matter any more. We need to all admit this is serious and will most likely kill someone we know, regardless of where we are in the country. Do everything you can to avoid this, even if it means complete isolation for two more months.

Ned2 said...

One thing I've been pondering since this all started.
Can we finally tell China to fuck off and die? Could we do that without ruining our economy?
As a small business owner, I've already taken steps (over the last decade or so) to avoid purchasing raw materials from China. It takes work sometimes to find domestic suppliers for material, and I usually have to call some and pry the origin of goods out of them, but it can be done. The added cost usually isn't as much as you might think.

ApoloDoc said...

I get a chuckle out of the notions of deaths & attribution. Yeah, you die when your heart stops, when you stop having oxygen to your brain. The KungFlu is efficient at doing this to some people, and as Aesop keeps pointing out, there are many 'lost years' of 'vulnerable people' who might well have had many more years ahead.

HOWEVER: overall national death rates are being skewed even as I type this. There are FAR fewer automobile deaths, and that will continue through lockdown. As most readers of this & related blogs are aware, cops kill about 1000 citizens per year. At the moment those are likely down as the cops are too afraid for their own health. Accidental deaths from "hey, watch this!" stupidity may well change, although we can speculate which direction.

Mental health issues - Aesop has previously mentioned a known phenomenon, people with serious mental illnesses (schizophrenia & the like) frequently pull it together when there are REAL CRISES occurring. That may help some of them survive. Suicide? Hmmm, tricky. For some, having real, large scale crises actually help them feel more connected. They aren't just dealing with their own personal, isolated suffering but have a sense of community connection. Suicides are increased by a sense of isolation, and these strange circumstances can potentially move this either way: MORE isolated due to 'social distancing' or paradoxically feeling less isolated as "we are all in this together."

These thoughts are just some informed speculations that I have been pondering. All I mean to do by this is point out the complexity of "numbers" relating to deaths. The truth of this can be seen anecdotally by those on the front lines, but it may not be universally applicable. We simply don't know. What I DO know is that we can all contribute by doing things to comfort and assist one another, to not put our heads in the sand and hum to ourselves, but also to avoid pointless stirring up fear.

As various docs have discussed across various site on the web, seeking to be a calm voice of leadership in an ER or other treatment setting is crucial. Extrapolate that to your own local sphere of influence, I suspect that most readers here can have a more beneficial impact at a local level then you realize.

Financial thoughts - Aesop, your words are quite rational but my cynicism doubts this. For my own case, my office landlord so kindly sent out an email about applying for federal business aid ... rather than saying 'hey, don't sweat the rent this month.' This is for an old building that has been owned for decades, they aren't paying any mortgages, it is a cash cow. Even when infrastructure issues of a building made it unusable for a few weeks (3-4 yrs ago) they REFUSED to rebate any rent.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

One thing I've learned from KungFlu - I have greatly, like multiple orders of magnitude, underestimated the power and extent of stupid in this world.

Yesterday the Surgeon General doubled down on the public not wearing masks of any kind, citing the WHO.

I really wonder what these high level officials think they're gaining by continuously lying to the people. OK, it's not all bad they're trashing their credibility, since they should have little to none, but....

No one is talking about the effect all of these quarantines will have on the banks.

You need to improve, widen your sources of information, plenty of people are talking about this, and other 2nd and 3rd order effects. Our host also detailed how a lot of this can be handled, not that we expect everyone and every organization to be that smart.

The only joker in the deck is inflation from the $2T Porkculous Package.

A tremendous quantity of notational dollars are being destroyed right now, see for example the near total losses in the travel, vacation etc. industry, 10% of the US economy. For the moment, we're suffering from the early phases of deflation, as tends to happen in economic shocks like this one.

One thing I've been pondering since this all started.
Can we finally tell China to fuck off and die? Could we do that without ruining our economy?


Right now ~90% of our pharmaceutical supply chains trace back to the PRC, between chemical precursors and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (says something when people trust India more than the PRC to make finished drugs...). And the CCP has already threatened to embargo the US to drown us in the "mighty sea of coronavirus." So we've got to take quite a few steps before we can quarantine them....

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

One thing I forgot to mention about the dollar and inflation: right now there's an stupendous demand for what are considered to be the most "safe" financial things, and dollars and US Treasury debt instruments are the most in demand, along with physical gold if I understood what little I've read recently about that market. So much so I've seen talk from some that we may need to try to deliberately devalue it.

Aesop said...

@Clayton W.,

Rentals and leases are gone.
Like those months never occurred.
I didn't get any money from no work.
You don't get any rental from no money.
You get no utility payment.
Period.
The entire society takes a haircut on that, across the board.
No one's getting rich, no one's going broke.
Roll the pain out like a pizza crust, and everyone gets their slice.
File under: Shit happens, and suck it up.

Let the market correct the problems once the economy is running again.
Financially, you're just telling people that no days from Day X to Day Y ever existed, despite the evidence of the stars rotating through the heavens and the calendar pages flipping, and everyone grows the fuck up and deals with it.

At he end of the day, this ends, I go back to work, the landlord gets his rent, the power company gets their check, and uncle gets his taxes, and no one's the worse for wear, except the 1/2/3/whatever months of life we all lost.

Fair is fair.

Judge: "Is any of this claim related to anything that happened during the Official Dates Of Kung Flu Amnesty?"
Plaintiff: "Yes, Your Honor."
Judge: "Case dismissed, and you owe defendant his court costs."
Problems solved. QED.

Anonymous said...

"You don't suddenly require people to pay back the 2 (or 5) months of missed payments."

Not true for mortgages right now. Banks are only offering forbearance, eliminating late fees. You can't put the 3 months missed payments at the end of the loan. I know because I've been in touch with Wells Fargo about my mortgage. They let you pay it back over the course of a 6 month period, which means a 50% monthly increase in payments.

Bottom line is the banks are still the MFs they've always been.

Aesop said...

@Anon,

That's fixable with a penstroke.
(Already has been in Italy.)
And will be, in short order.
Elections are coming.
Side with banksters: instant unemployment, No perks, No power.
Populism FTW.

Fingers get pricked, and pricks get fingered.

Anonymous said...

"...even if it mean complete isolation for two more months."
Then what? In 2 months time will we have identified the asymptomatic super spreaders? Millions will have gotten it and we'll have herd immunity? We don't really know what recovery looks like and there were some *reports* of reinfection which might have been through faulty testing. Unlike the Spanish Flu this is a slow burn virus, not easily identifiable among the seemingly well, can incubate in the body for up to 28 days and stays on surfaces for over a week.
Along with trillions of new debt we've been fed a lot of hopium. Look at Hong Kong that adopted early contact tracing and now it's ramping up again.

carolinaTURTLE said...

i dare say TPTB will be happy to lighten the social load of everyone that falls into the co-morbidity demographic...i mean, they aren’t related to those millions of people, right? (Except for Gov. Cuomo’s mother...i take it from a reliable source that she isn’t expendable)

Doug Cranmer said...

"You need to improve, widen your sources of information, plenty of people are talking about this, and other 2nd and 3rd order effects."

The Wolf Street blog is quite good for this. Zerohedge as well if you pick judiciously.

Unknown said...

This surgeon general is the same moron who cited ONE study on cracked ribs to prove acetaminophen is just as if not MORE effective than opioids or propofol in a surgical setting. The man is an idiot.

Unknown said...

https://www.henrymillermd.org/22989/opioids-bad-science-bad-policy-bad-outcomes

Here's an article discussing the SGs ineptitude.

Matrick said...

This is the article that explains how the rate of testing and way CV19 deaths are recorded can lead to frightening figures that exaggerate how serious this crisis is.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Anonymous said...

I really don't GAF about the SG, or anyone else's brains, skills, veracity or lack thereof. If you're relying on them to tell you what to do, you're beyond help.
The wailing, gnashing of teeth and pointing of fingers is getting wearisome; especially since few of us have any control or say at that level.
Look to your own self, family, tribe, neighborhood and STFU unless you have something productive or encouraging to add.
IAW as our host says "Suture Self"
Boat Guy

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

The Wolf Street blog is quite good for this. Zerohedge as well if you pick judiciously.

Thanks for the Wolf Street pointer, I'll check it out. Your warning about Zerohedge is spot on, it's indeed primarily where I'm getting this information and a lot else, but I must warn people, it's only good for timely news aggregation about subjects you already know a great deal about, it publishes a great many items that are just plain wrong, about COVID-19, for example. I think they've also the sort of site that's predicted the last 500 recessions in the previous decade.

Anonymous said...

I'm always impressed by the number of people that claim on one hand how unscrupulous TPTB are and then assert that all this is faked. As if when they needed a crisis they wouldn't actually kill 100k people?
FFS all these pictures of deployments of resources aren't just happening to further a "narrative", there actually is a field hospital going up in Central Park. A priest is actually conducting last rites in a church full of coffins. No one sets that up just for fun.
The amount of stupid is depressing and impressive. As you stated, all people die from an inability of the body to adequately perfuse tissue with oxygen and if you and your comorbidites don't survive a contact with wuflu intact, it's not the comorbidities fault. Every day in Italy there are 10 pages of obits not caused by "anything-but-Covid-19". Sure.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

I really don't GAF about the SG, or anyone else's brains, skills, veracity or lack thereof. If you're relying on them to tell you what to do, you're beyond help.

And what about people who don't know a lot about medicine and biology?

Those people have to find others to trust, and therefore pointing out in detail that the current Surgeon General is a complete idiot is worthwhile.

And I read the link provided by "Unknown," the Surgeon General is either really, really stupid, or he's parroting propaganda provided by other really stupid people, and/or he's a political animal rather than someone you'd want for your own doctor. Reminds me of the one doctor I had for one visit who tried to overdose me several times over, fortunately I do know a lot about biology and a fair amount about medicine, and always double check prescribing instructions before starting a new drug (in that case, I caught one of the errors, not the other which fortunately just put me at the top of the therapeutic dose, where I probably belonged).

Anonymous said...

I think I got my answer. It's being supressed cause so many fucking people have it and are getting it that the situation is a bit out of control already. COG may have been activated because we are going over the falls. Would like to be wrong very much. The cities are likely to become very bad places (not that they weren't already).

Anonymous said...

Aesop,
'Pears you've got a kindred spirit (no surprise there).
From Culper this morning;
" One nurse wasn't allowed to wear her own N95 mask, so she quit her job. "
Lots more of that coming...
Boat Guy

TwoBuckChuck said...

Ya know who's really effed in this economic disaster? The countless members of the "shadow economy" who do not work on the books like the rest of us tax slaves, and therefore do not qualify for unemployment benefits when their side deal goes tits up. Housekeepers, undocumented "guest" workers, resellers, black marketeers, guys dealing "loosies" on the sidewalk.

A waitress in a diner working for tips and paying no taxes on it is not about to file for unemployment benefits she never paid into. Its a bit of schadenfreude for those of us who played by the rules forever and faithfully filed our 1040s every April.

When the breadlines appear, are we going to have to queue up 6 feet apart? Asking for a country facing financial ruin.

Robin Datta said...

Why everyone should wear a face mask.

Anonymous said...

"Fingers get pricked, and pricks get fingered."

And if not, maybe triggers get fingered and pricks get shot. YMMV.

Hope@ZeroKelvin -Proud Deplorable said...

For small business owners trying to get a loan under the CARES act beware: The house version, the one that was passed, has a huge error in the loan forgiveness calculation. It is in 1106(b).

Forgiveness for the loan is allowed for payroll (less SS+medicare taxes), mortagages (interest ONLY, not principal) and utilities.

There is a phrase about the "reduction in forgiveness" which is a calculation to ensure that you keep 100% of your employees FULL TIME for 8 weeks after the loan divided by the # of employees you had. (There are 2 time points for that, but for simplicities sake.)

The way the house bill reads, if you keep 100% of your employees the "reduction in your forgiveness" turns out to be equal to the entire forgiveness amount, thus ZERO forgiveness.

It does not say this in the Senate version. Surely the Democrat controlled House wants small business to keep people employed and not punish small business owners, surely!!

Hopefully this would be fixed but this shows the danger in passing 330 pages of pdf of legislation without checking it.

Here is the url for the house bill

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/ouse-bill/748/text

Wendy (KekistanTrans) said...

Might be interesting at some point to compare daily TOTAL U.S. deaths on any given day to the same date the previous year or two.

We can speculate endlessly on the effects of the Coronavirus vs the regular flu vs old people dying who would have died anyway, etc., but with several states in state government mandated lock-down and a lot less travel on the roads and even things like gang shootings in Chicago down due to fear of hanging out and getting sick from this any increase in daily TOTAL U.S. deaths would would have to be due to the Coronavirus.

Duke Norfolk said...

Wendy,

The problem with that is that deaths from other causes are down quite a bit due to the
"lockdown." Just the drop in traffic deaths must be quite large. Add in a bunch of other causes and the data is quite skewed.

I actually saw a graph somewhere showing this, but can't remember where (nor am I certain about its veracity). But once you think about it a bit it makes a lot of sense.

The Freeholder said...

On the financial issues, I like Aesop's solution. As with others, I think it makes too much sense and therefore has zero chance of being tried.

I'm expecting a Jubilee. It's been put out there in recent months by more than a few people across the spectrum (note I'm not saying which spectrum) as a solution to all sorts of "ills". I'll be surprised if it isn't floated as a solution for this ill as well.

ThatWouldBeTelling said...

The Wolf Street blog is quite good for this.

It quickly failed somewhat like Karl Denninger in that in reading the comments on a services sector article by Mr. Wolf Richter it was noted his focus on Texas was largely a proxy for the previously not exactly healthy shale oil and gas industry there (now so bad a Zerohedge article noted a negative bid for an extremely specialized crude used for pavement). Then I noticed another article from him focusing on Texas statistics for no apparent reason, as well as tell tails there and elsewhere of those who start with a narrative and write to fulfill it.

It's high time people stop falling for that trap, Zerohedge at least has the advantage of a constant stream of articles and some of them being straight or fairly so news reporting.

Nahanni said...

You had forewarning of the kind of people you rent from 3+ years ago and you chose to continue to rent from them.

Why are your knickers in a twist now? You KNEW how they would react The hallmark of being an adult is taking responsibility for your actions. Quit whining.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

Folks the gubbermint bailed out the corporations again just like 2008. The federal reserve can now indirectly acquire stock assets. Think about it 3.2 million people filed for unemployment 2 weeks ago and the market went up. That 2.2 trillion dollars should go to the people to stimulate the economy, its your money anyway. Trump signed the bill, even Bernie Sanders if president would have raised a little hell over the bailout. The Kentucky senator called for a recorded vote and Trump and Gore both shamed him on social media. It caused those d c assholes to return to DC to meet quorum to quash the recorded vote so it stayed a voice vote. How bout them apples, no accountability. The beer virus is a serious issue and Aesop has been saying that for months. It then became cover for the gubbermint to stick it to you again if we don't wake up this time come election time its over.

If it goes to hell here like I indicated a month ago due to the economic impact shutting this place down the American people probably won't be able to pay on their debt. That's okay though the bankers and wall street deserve it after 1913 and their history up to 2008.

AND STAY THE FUCK HOME IF YOU WANT TO LIVE