Friday, February 28, 2020

A Failure Of Imagination. And Of Common Sense.

h/t Blue Collar Prepping


Plague Doctor: Roll +10 Health Points during Contagion.





































First, go read this post.
No, really, go. Read.
All of it.
Then come back.

___________________

All done?

I have no problem with the Dr.'s C.V. and bona fides.
She has quite the resume for dealing with some aspects of coronavirus, and related questions about the burgeoning Kung Flu pandemic. And some good, solid, useful information on several aspects.

But she's guilty of some rather important and significant misstatements.
I do not call them lies of omission, because I can't ascribe motivation and intent to what she wrote.

Much of it is correct, as far as it goes.
But some key points are rather woefully lacking in Reality.

¶ Nine:
"The government is currently screening people coming off of international flights from known risk zones, or coming across the border, and then diverting the people who need it to medical facilities that can handle it."
1) The fact that they're doing point-of-care one-time testing, on a disease that incubates for 2-14 days, and perhaps as many as 24 or 28, guarantees the spread of asymptomatic virus carriers into the country, to propagate it hither and yon widespread in a few days, to a couple of weeks. This is the bio-defense version of putting the entire defensive team on the line of scrimmage, and then looking shocked and dismayed when the other team passes over their heads for 3000 yards, and beats you 210-0. Your tax dollars at work.

Sorry Doc, I'm not feeling very de-stressed, fearless, or anxiety-free yet. Maybe you need to go back for some post-doc work on bedside manner and common sense. Just saying.

2) The natural consequence of #1, above is that in short order, there will be no more medical facilities that "can handle it". We've covered this here. The internet moves fast; try and keep up.

¶ Ten:
"Yes, you should go out and replace basic supplies you’re out of, plus a little extra - not because society is about to break down, but because you might be stuck in the house for a week feeling like absolute trash and too bombed on cold medication to drive or operate anything more complex than a can opener and a microwave."
3) Sorry, but after #2 becomes reality, "a week" of supplies isn't going to cut it. And once health care goes down in a pandemic, FFS, society is, in fact, in the process of breaking down.
And then people won't risk going to work, because they don't want to get sick. And/or the CDC closes things down, like they've already said they will. Public facilities, schools, businesses. But I'm sure the police, fire department, EMS, water, power, gas, telephone service, radio, TV, trash collection, and whatever else you imagine, will be magically unaffected by this, because no one could possibly decide that staying home, healthy, with their families was more important than keeping your fantasies about how society will behave alive amidst a crisis unprecedented in a century or more. Your crystal ball is a bit hazy, isn't it?

¶ Eleven
"In extreme situations, schools or workplaces may close under the guidance of local government or management - think snow days."
4) Um, no. Think snow months. Plural. If TPTB close schools and businesses, over a disease that can incubate for two weeks, perhaps a month, no one's going to call off a day or three. They're going to call it off until a month after the last recorded case. Like you do if you got your medical diploma from someplace other than online. Otherwise, you're just ringing the dinner bell for serial waves of pandemic, and guaranteeing re-infection by some, which at last report, has a wee tendency to cause sudden cardiac arrest and death.
Now I'm really not feeling fearless and anxiety-free at all. Are you sure you're a real doctor?

5) And snow months means that "a week" of extra supplies, once again, isn't going to cut it. So maybe start talking about two, three, or six months. Maybe all year. Which, as people watch their 401Ks melt down daily, may bring on even more anxiety among the really susceptible-to-this-virus retirees. Don'tcha think???

¶ Twelve
"Again, this is not Hollywood-style “civil unrest” with people running, screaming, and looting while armed officers break up any groups larger than three..."
6) Oh, really??
Ever been to Chicagostan? Baltimoronia? Detroitistan? District of Criminals? St. Louis? Philly? Newark? South Central L.A.? Oakland? Anywhere, really.
I mean, FFS, Chicago has more shooting casualties every year than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ever did, even at the heights of those conflicts (a truth which really pisses OIF/OEF vets off royally when I point that out), and the people there don't even have Interceptor vests, MRAPs, M-4 rifles, close air support, or any supporting fires, most days.

Now, doc, have you ever been there (for any value of there) when they're pissed off?
Like when the market's closed.
Not the stock market; I mean the supermarket. Or supermarkets, plural.

Or when their EBT cards haven't been reloaded, because non-essential employees (and a lot of more essential ones) aren't coming to work to do that?
Didja figure they'd quietly starve in silence?
Or do you think they might go "shopping", with bricks, torches, and machetes?

What about when the police are running things at 1/2 or 1/3 staff?
How do you see civil unrest under those conditions, doc? Have we gotten maybe just a wee bit out of your depth of expertise here? Just asking. Nothing personal.

I've been in two, count 'em, two, city-wide riots. And those were little ones, compared to what we'd see in a months-long pandemic with societal degradation. Both of them affected Hollywood directly, BTW. So maybe a bit less pooh-poohing, and a little more shut-up-and-give-your-eyes-and-ears-a-chance-when-you-don't-know-WTF-you're-talking-about, if you catch my drift.

This will never actually happen. It is unpossible in America.
I read it on the Internet, so it must be true.















¶ Thirteen
" Not surprisingly, mortality has been much higher at the epicenter of the outbreak, where things happened very fast and new patients were met with already-exhausted healthcare resources. Remember that proper medical management, even if there’s no cure, is a significant factor in reducing the death toll. Medical centers and public health workers here in the U.S. are doing quite a lot of work behind the scenes to make sure that our resources are ready to meet the challenge, which is an advantage that the first round of patients in Wuhan didn’t have."
7) Got it.
American health care is first rate.
We can handle a major crisis.
We've got this.
You'll perhaps understand if I mention we've been sold these same Magic Beans at least once before. {Hint: It didn't work out well for the city involved. Or the hospital. Or the employees there. Definitely not for Patient Zero. Or, really...anyone. Maybe they didn't cover this in your anxiety-reducing and fear-allaying curriculum. Kind of a big hole in the course work, i'n'it?}

Now, I'm a fair guy. Most of the basic information, on point, from the good Dr. regarding the actual virus is good stuff.
So you should, indeed, still RTWT.
Glean the nuggets of actual good information out of it. There are a number of them there.

But be aware that when most people get beyond their expertise, they run neck-deep into spurious bullshit, and trip over their Confirmation Bias that "Things have never gotten SHTF bad, so they won't this time, either." Good for your blood pressure, yes, but not so good when you might be re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, and listening to the orchestra entertain the passengers milling about in life preservers on the Boat Deck. Especially not when you should have been ripping doors off their hinges and building rafts.

Maybe everything will be magical unicorns pooping strawberry-scented welfare checks and rubies the size of charcoal briquettes.
Or maybe things are going to get a lot worse, and we've only begun the initial tipover on that rollercoaster, with the bottom of things quite a long scary way down.

You get one chance to prepare ahead for Bad Times.
That ends once they happen.

Now, you tell me, would you rather be over-prepared, or under-prepared?
This exam will be graded pass/fail.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

This feels like it's the big one. If it's not? I've got a whole stack of supplies that will be used and when on special, added to. If it is? I'll be the fat guy when everyone else has stopped talking Keto and started talking "You're cat looks yummy"

Anonymous said...

Thank you, that was excellent. OG

NITZAKHON said...

Thank you!

My wife is from the former USSR. She has told me about how, as the USSR broke up, she and her family had months at a time when they didn't know where their next meal was coming from.

So I found it very... amusing, in an ironic sort of way, when her mother and aunt visited at the same time that they were chuckling at my "grocery store" (which I'm currently actively rolling over on items that are close to their dates) in the basement. Now I'm Mr. Whitebread who has never experienced a day of true hardship in my life. ***I*** am the one preparing; they LIVED THROUGH things, scary things, and they're laughing?

And yesterday I picked up another set of the fam's scrips. I now have at least six months of everything.

nick flandrey said...

I find it telling that there are degree programs in mitigating public fear. Not solving the problem. Not curing the disease, but making people feel better about it.

And she's getting her money's worth from that degree. I'm sure that there are people who feel better after reading it. After all, it gives them an authority who reinforces their own belief and desire... as for buying a mask or bleach, well the ship sailed on one last week and the other goes by the hour. She's also not been paying attention to the quarantine numbers or the repatriation numbers.

------

I'm getting tired of hearing about "panic buying". What on earth would be MORE PRUDENT than stocking up when bad times are coming. Unless they are making irrational choices of what to buy, like piling up marshmallow and hairspray, they are acting perfectly rationally buying food and supplies for an extended stay at home.

CDC, whatever their faults, have a HUGE section on their website about Pandemic Flu. They've been talking about this for literally years, warning us it was coming. They've been spending our money on billboards and websites and encouraging people to look at "business continuity" under exactly the circumstances we're going to be facing, for a decade. (which makes their failures in those areas even more egregious.)

I hear people complain about not having access to masks or gloves and I ask them "What have you been doing since 2014 and Ebola? Or even since 2019 and Ebola?" I've been diverting an not insignificant portion of my income to getting ready for YEARS and I still have stuff to get.

Speaking of which, I'm headed to the store.

nick

nick flandrey said...

Ah jeez, none open yet...

So more talk.

I was working in Hollywood during the Rodney King Riots. Smoke was blowing in my front door and I could see fires. My roommate was hospitalized as the victim of racially motivated violence. The riots were what convinced me to move out of LA, and that a G17 and 32 rounds was NOT ENOUGH GUN.

Now I find my years of encouraging others to prep will probably cause me some discomfort. I've stayed where I am for too long and too many locals know I've probably got stuff. Since they're people who I wanted to survive whatever comes, I'm probably not going to be shooting any of them. Keep that in mind when you count the number of masks and gloves you have, and how many bottles of Children's Tylenol to stock. It's not too late to push some of those people to get their own stuff together while they can. Every prepped person you know is someone else who won't be banging on your door...

nick

Hawkin'Gal said...

One piece of critical information haunts me--"infection does not confer immunity." So this will NEVER go away, not until an effective vaccine is developed and widely distributed. So YEARS. We are about to become sicker, less productive, poorer, with all effects Aesop is reminding us will inevitably occur. I'm rereading Ferfal for another motivating voice, and trying not to mourn for my warm-season plans of competing with my horse.

Good luck everyone.

The Gray Man said...

Take note Aesop, the CDC website already flatly states that a pandemic is “likely”. Not sure why these people, like the good doctor, are still pretending like a pandemic isn’t a high probability.

Anonymous said...

1) "It's not panic buying."
According to APICS it's "hedge stock."

2) "I was working in Hollywood during the Rodney King Riots. Smoke was blowing in my front door and I could see fires."
I was working @ McDonnell Douglas during the Greater Los Angeles County Inter-ethnic May Festival of 1992. I got on top of the bldg. closest to the airport (about 70' up) and saw columns of smoke in every direction. Time to head for home. LAPD had the effrontery to claim they had the situation in hand, which brought to mind the question "So all these fires are OK with you?" I was real glad for every round of ammo I had.
_revjen45

The Gray Man said...

And the good doctor talking about work going on behind the scenes to make sure we are ready to provide proper medical management.

A ripple in the Pacific Ocean still shorts my hospital on bags of normal saline less than a month later. But the good doctor wouldn’t know that because she is a doctor. As far as she knows, RNs (like me and you) piss NS straight into our patients’ vascular system. A shortage on anything is but a minor annoyance to her, assuming she notices.

Anonymous said...

Maybe Ms. Doc Smarty Pants could tell us something we don't know. Like use her degree to find out what condition the lungs are in "recovered" patients or how patients can become reinfected due to the HIV component that trashes the immune system. Yeah, don't get this bug in the first place. Right now the risk is still pretty low depending on where you live and how much interaction you have with the public but that could change as quick as next week. We're topping off supplies NOW and every box from online ordering gets disinfected (including the contents) before being brought into the house.

Hat tip to Nick for mentioning pool shock. Most people aren't aware of it as a source of chlorine and when the shelves of bleach are empty, the pool chemical isle at WallyWorld is probably still stocked. Also septic chlorine tabs are made from calcium hypochlorite and can be found at Home Depot - 10 lbs for $65.

The Gray Man said...

Aesop, you use to have a fear of Ebola hitting Lagos, Nigeria.

Guess what virus just arrived there.

Anonymous said...

Guy in charge of the Wu flu issue in the ROK committed suicide.
Caught on camera, drove his car to the bridge and jumped off.
Nothing to see here folks, probably just having a bad day.

johnnyrotten said...

RE: the Pool Shock. How is that used? I'd like to buy some but lack the first clue...thx

Anonymous said...

Jonnyrotten the use of pool shock is a bit long for the comment section. Use your inner GOOGLE FU and print out the instructions. I promise it's worth it.

Sad to say this well intentioned Dr. with excellent credentials is in the same bubble a LOT of my fellow Hospital Staff are in. That will pass but too late to do much about it when trouble hits locally. Rodney King riots are just the preview of panicked I want THAT for my KIDS normally sane folks acting out as ER's have to turn away patients and Grocery Stores-Jobs are closed.

The stock market is also tanking adding even MOAR Stress to the normally Sane Folks so that too will be part of the troubles to come.

Buy what you eat, eat what you buy and if this somehow becomes a EBOLA style nothing burger (not very likely but..) your eating food next year at todays prices. What's the down side? BTW REMINDER GET Fresh Bleach or buy pool shock and print out directions as that old bottle in closet *might* not be very useful anymore.

johnnyrotten said...

Copy and thanks.

Anonymous said...

I can agree w/ the doc on one thing - don't panic. Can/may/will be tough if you realized you are totally fucked. But panic does not help just gives you an additional problem to solve.

Otherwise she is a bit clueless.

As I've stated before, TPTB will pull all the strings to try to stave off a panic. Of course, had they been straight from the beginning, like close the entire damn border COMPLETELY as soon as asymptomatic transmission was a likely possiblity, making a 30 day quarantine just to be sure, or calmly telling people to prepare most of the panic could be avoided. People tend to lose their shit when they realize those in charge have been blowing sunshine up their ass in a for-real situation.

Ned2 said...

Johnny Pistol et al, be careful with pool shock when storing it for an extended period. Not the most stable and I would lean towards self storage now with drops of unscented bleach for sterilization. (look it up)
A Berkey filter is pricey (if you put a value on saving your life and the lives of your family members), but comes with a set of filters that can purify I think 6000 gallons of water. You just need to have a water supply close if the mains fail.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, you should go out and replace basic supplies you’re out of, plus a little extra"

To Late. I saw photos earlier this morning that purported to show recently emptied grocery store shelves in Califruitopia and other places in Europe.

Nemo

Anonymous said...

One teaspoon of 73% calcium hypochlorite to one gallon of water to make bleach solution. Then add bleach solution into water to be consumed at 1% by volume.

Don't forget to get a couple 20 dollar Sawyer water filter as well. Will filter 10,000 gallons.

Anonymous said...

Cut Range Day short to link up with Bride and top things off. We're gonna stock more frozen stuff than normal because that's where we have space. The rest of the preps are good though my bleach is a bit long in the tooth. We have lots of alternatives to bleach though.
Will check back in with anecdotal report on results.
Boat Guy

Anonymous said...

One annoyance from Range Day; "someone" put new steel up and it was painted as rifle steel. Went to repaint and found that 55-gr M193 "practice ammo" blew through the plate like it was paper. Nice round holes like wadcutters make. Good reminder about "cover" in a rifle- or even Carbine-fight
BG

nick flandrey said...

Got some of my errands done, but not the shopping part before my timing chain blew a hole in the cover and dumped all the engine oil on the pavement. Getting home and the truck to the car dr took up WAY too much time.

I'm headed back out to the store as soon as I can get the other truck up and fit for travel.

If you're serious about cleaning, get some google fu going and get to ordering on ebay. Prices for hospital grade disinfectants are up 10x from a couple of days ago. This will be the next "mask" shortage.

nick

A Texan said...

"I spent most of my electives in the Biodefense (policy) department, where I focused on mitigation of public fear and anxiety related to biological threats."
----------------------
I think that this is rather telling. She was educated in telling people, "Nothing to see here, move along, move along...." If you ask me, that very fact detracts from her credibility, it does not enhance it.

Yes, she had a fair amount of good advice - especially about washing one's hands frequently and not touching one's face. However, I could've gotten that advice with about 30 seconds of Google Fu, 25 of which were waiting for the hundreds of thousands of results to show up on my screen.

Buying extra food, especially dry or canned stuff that doesn't go bad in a week or two, cannot be a bad idea unless you simply don't eat it. We have plenty of water, but I'm buying a case or two more each day, and saving the empty gallon jugs from water we use (we don't drink our very hard water and don't have a whole house filter), all of which I will refill tomorrow with a few drops of (relatively new) bleach. I got another large jug of laundry detergent - you DO want clean clothes, don't you? Wash loads will be going up no less often than every 2 days for each person, so as to maximize clean clothing if the water or power goes off. Lots of dehydrated veggies like peas, legumes and veggie soup. Pasta and pasta sauce galore. Ramen noodles (if you're really hungry, they look like a feast, and provide a really cheap way to get calories). Tuna and chicken in cans. Oatmeal - 2 big containers, more coming on the way home tonight. More ketchup and mustard, MORE COFFEE!!!!!! Many potatoes and onions to be bought tonight or tomorrow - cheap, the spousal unit can whip up some really good stuff with them, and they are satisfying. Medications - need to get more generic Musinex and a couple more boxes of decongestants and cough suppressants; vitamins - more C and more of the EmergenC + that has many other nutrients - great for mixing with a 0.5 liter bottle. Sam's has 70 packets for about 20 bucks, and if you just want the C, 100 packets for the same price. More D, my supply is down to about 2 weeks. Doing OK on TP and tissues, may pick up more; need a few more paper plates and plastic utensils (if the water stops, who wants to eat off of dirty plates?).

Oh, and more propane for the camp stove that I've got. If the power goes, it is nice to be able to eat cooked food (esp. pasta).

More dog food - don't want to share our food with the pooches if the SHTF, and I'd generally like to avoid cutting up the junior rugrat for the dogs to eat (though there are times...) - it'd get a little noisy and messy.

NONE of this stuff will go to waste if life continues on as it normally does every winter, with March being a month of colds and April being our relief (including more women starting to wear shorts and tight shirts again). :>) But if the SHTF with this virus, we won't be starving.

Borepatch said...

Interesting article about how CT scanning is both faster (no 4 day wait) and more accurate (90%+ vs. 70%) than the CDC's Corona test kits.

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/02/27/27-feb-2019-ncov-sars-cov-2-covid-19-diagnostic-of-pandemic/

Also mentioned is the incompetence of the health Powers That Be that exposed 2 or 3 shifts in the ER plus an ambulance crew to the first California corona virus case. It seems very possible that the first responders and care providers will be hit much harder than Joe Citizen.

I sure hope that last bit is wrong, and that TPTB get their heads out of their asses, STAT ...

Old NFO said...

I'm going with over... Just sayin...

Aesop said...

1) Until you see EMS ambulance crews arriving in Tyvek suits with Ebola-level precautions, they aren't taking this seriously. It's too late to suit up when you're on scene. That won't happen until they start losing entire crews to Kung Flu extended illness.

2) Things will slide, as people realize this is going to be long, and bad. Be an early adopter, and be prudent.

3) Gray Man,
Re: EVD, Lagos: Wonderful. Link?

Anonymous said...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-second-case-of-coronavirus-found-through-spread-in-california/ar-BB10xkEi?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

The Gray Man said...

Here ya go. I could put it on American Partisan but I’m trying to type some gear reviews.

https://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-braces-coronavirus-hits-megacity-lagos-062857721.html

Anonymous said...

Ramen (2 minute noodles) with the small tin of tuna = 500 calories give or take. Drink the water (don't waste it) and that's 1/3 of your calories for the day (assuming you're sheltering in place).

Thank you everyone for sensible tips and information.

Just an aside. I've seen some pictures of empty shelves from the media reporting panic buying. Strange thing is I've seen the same pictures with different locations in the descriptions. I loathe #fakenews and the MSM wonders why nobody trusts or respects them


Thank you to the HOST as well. This is my first visit of the day in these scary times

Aesop said...

@Gray,

Got it. Corona in Lagos. Not Ebola.
All that Chinese investment in Africa is paying off.

@Anon 3:47,
You're welcome.

The Gray Man said...

Im happy to see the Chinese get their comeuppance, unfortunately, it looks like they’re going to dump it on the rest of us.

Guess that’s what we get for selling them everything.

daniel_day said...

I was in the pool shock aisle of the local WalMart yesterday looking for calcium hypochlorite. The shelves did not look particularly bought-out, but NONE of the pool shock brands available listed their ingredient as calcium hypochlorite, they were **sodium** hypochlorite or other completely different constituents. Takeaway (no pun intended): Be SURE to check the listed ingredients before you buy your bottle of pool shock.

Anonymous said...

Things aren't going to get bad if office workers stay home, or schools close. Things will get bad when sick-outs hit the trucking industry. What happens if, say, 10% of truckers are down with the flu? Food won't get delivered to a lot of places. Farm produce may not get picked up. Stores will not get re-stocked, and that's when it'll really get ugly, fast. Food riots in those places that didn't get deliveries.

Somebody ought to be thinking about re-prioritizing the remaining truck drivers to favor food (and drugstore) deliveries over hauling beer, soda, shiny new cars, furniture, appliances, etc., etc. Fed-Ex and UPS drivers, for one example.

Liberty4Ever said...

An additional comment on point Nine. Every point of refutation is true, but the situation is actually much worse. The federal government bunglers are not merely failing to do enough to prevent the disease from spreading. The US State Department in Japan disregarded CDC recommendations and a presidential directive to break the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantine and repatriate Americans, flying the known infected and the presumed uninfected back on the same plane with inadequate isolation, likely resulting in infection of people who may not have been infected. Even worse, according to a widely reported whistle blower accusation, the Department of Health and Human Services sent untrained people into the two military base quarantine areas without personal protection equipment to interact with the quarantined patients, and then those DHS personnel were allowed to stay in hotels, fly in jet planes and interact with the US population. HHS managers apparently don't understand what a quarantine is. This would make a terrible plot for a dystopian work of fiction because most people would (incorrectly) believe that government can't possibly be this recklessly stupid.

Hope@ZeroKelvin -Proud Deplorable said...

Liquid bleach loses its potency in approx. 6 months. So factor that in. Pool shock at 73% is an option but only in a last resort. The US Army has some calculations in one of their (free) manuals. Those strips for measuring swimming pool chlorine levels are helpful for determining chlorine levels and are cheap and readily available.

Water filtration systems (Platypus, Katadyn etc) are great but only remove bacteria or parasites. Viruses are so small that they slip through these systems so you usually need a chemical method such as chlorine (easy, cheap) or iodine based (bad for children and those with thyroid disorders also tastes horrible). I use a double method when out in the wilds cuz you can never tell and diarrhea with limited laundry facilities is....inharmonious.

If your surface water has particulate matter (leaves, dirt, etc) you will need a pretreat step - coffee filters, bandana, cheesecloth or your filter will clog for sure. I have used a 3 liter soda bottle, swinging it around like a crude centrifuge and this actually works great and I don't have to deal with a dirty bandana or coffee filter. Doesn't need to be clean cuz you are going to be treating water regardless and these things are lying around all the time as it is.

Houston is currently on a boil alert, yes about 4 million people, today because a 96 inch water pipe gave way (which also flooded most of East Houston). That included MD Anderson Cancer Center and the entire Texas Medical Center (the largest medical center in the Western World). And that is BEFORE COVID19 hits Houston.

You can boil your water but that takes: 1) fuel, 2) time, and, 3) a vessel.

Then you need a way to cook. A thousand fire fighters just had a coronary about the thought of thousands or millions of scared (=stupid) Americans trying to cook over OPEN fires. When the firefighters and water mains are not available. Can you spell "CONFLAGRATION"? Yes children I knew you could.

It is not a bad idea to have one of those Coleman stoves and 10+ canisters of fuel available if the power/gas goes down. Remember to do this outside lest the demons of carbon monoxide smite thee.

That gets to WASTE. Not just trash, the pick up of which is extremely unlikely (and I have no solution here), but poopoo and peepee. Human poop is approx. 1 pound per person per day (and thus the phrase "up shit creek without a paddle") and is full of pathogenic bacteria. Human urine should be sterile when leaving the human body but when lying around is a great culture medium for bacteria to grow in. Can you spell "LYE"? Yes children, I know you could.

Most city waste systems require POWER to move it out of a neighborhood, as well as to pump water into it. I would bet 90% of y'all have no idea where you stand here. I am on a well (with multiple ways to operate it) and septic.

Stock up on kitty litter, 5 gal buckets and heavy black trashbags for later disposal. (Course, if you leave that black trashbag out in the sun for several days, the heat generated should kill the billions of pathogenic bacteria in human poop and it might be reasonable fertilizer at some point, have no idea if that is so, just ruminating on a Friday night after Hell Week).

Hygiene (no that is not a greeting) is very important in this scenario. You simply cannot have enough 70% alcohol based hand sanitation. Also baby wipes, your friend in 1870s tech. You should have months in stock ALREADY.

As to this "PhD", good grief. She doesn't know shit from shinola and her main degree was in basically LYING to people about the seriousness of their situation.

Didn't think you could get an advanced degree in "Baghdad Bob Public Relations".

I personally have a very bad feeling about this COVID19, not because I think it is intrinsically so bad (but it might be so) but because FEAR and PANIC are billion times more dangerous than anything Mother Nature can cook up.

Anonymous said...

....for me the best example is New Orleans during hurricane Katrina....it didn't take long for gunfire to break out on the streets....that's when the cops abandoned their posts and headed home to protect their families.....and that's the point when things went Without Rule Of Law....with WROL it'll be the wild west all over.

Anonymous said...

Shopping was mildly interesting; some folks at Costco did appear to be stocking up. Noticed frozen peas on sale; 5lb bag for $7.50 all gone, no other veg, even comparable price; Bride noted "Kids eat peas".
Interesting end cap offer; nitrile gloves
Trader Joes; yupsters on a Friday afternoon. Nothing remarkable.
Boat Guy

Hope@ZeroKelvin -Proud Deplorable said...

Here are my references to my previous posts about the math of COVID19.

I welcome any constructive debate here cuz I really really REALLY hope I am wrong.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/185860/number-of-all-hospital-beds-in-the-us-since-2001/
https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4351597/
https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1164/rccm.201501-0079LE
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3840149/
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233269-how-bad-is-the-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-likely-to-get/
https://www.reportlinker.com/p05561805/Global-Mechanical-Ventilators-Industry.html
https://c.aarc.org/headlines/10/02/nvs.cfm
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/14/805289669/how-covid-19-kills-the-new-coronavirus-disease-can-take-a-deadly-turn
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

johnnyreb said...

I we hadn't they'd have just stolen it anyway.

nick flandrey said...

Got back from my grocery run, truck blew something in the engine involving a timing chain cover, so that sucks.

HEB grocery, big regional chain in TX, big flagship store---

--water available, mostly ravaged by our current plumbing issue, but several pallets at normal or even on sale prices.

--NO unscented bleach after I grabbed the last gallon.

--No bleach based surface cleaners after I grabbed the last quart bottle.

--No isopropal alcohol

--No gloves

--didn't see any hand sanitizer but wasn't looking because I'm well covered there.

--plenty of tampons and pads, but J&J has said that a lot of the products they sell won't be resupplied, and tampons and pads are made in the USA but with chinese materials, so if you have females you should get that taken care of right away.

--got 4 bags of potatoes and 2 bags of onions, also some hard squashes.

--got a couple dozen AB bars of soap, kid shampoo and conditioner, toothpaste, monkeybutt powder.

--after that it was targets of opportunity.

---oatmeal was almost sold out, only house brand left.

---plenty of bread products and tortillas (not like in a hurricane)

---food in general available with some other weird spot shortages and empty shelves that I'm not remembering the specifics.

---plenty of soup, but I got the last 12 campbells chicken noodle, and I mix and matched to get to 24 cans

---grabbed a bunch of tea, powdered tea, and koolaid mix.

---grabbed some baby wipes


thanks for the reminder about kitty litter. I've got one or two big tubs, but will add more tomorrow. Same for baby wipes, I've been running my stock down, and that's a mistake. I'll get a case or two at Costco.

Didn't get to the pet food store, or the pool supply, because it took 4 hours to get the truck to the mechanic and get the other truck on the road. Tomorrow is another day.

nick

Unknown said...

That's assuming "Mother Nature" cooked coronachan up...........

Stealth Spaniel said...

Aesop-absolutely no one outdoes you for snark and great advice in the same sentence! It's always a joy to read your writing, especially when someone pisses you off.

"Anonymous nick flandrey said...
I find it telling that there are degree programs in mitigating public fear. Not solving the problem. Not curing the disease, but making people feel better about it."
-Nick, you & I are on the same page. Basically, The Good "Doctor" has an advanced degree in lying, bullshit, and misdirection. No wonder universities-world wide-are on the downhill slide.

The dentist took up a good deal of my morning: no cavities but cleaning, talking, and Xrays take a lot of time and $150 copay. I have another appointment in 6 months but I wonder if I can keep it.
I foray into Sam's Club tomorrow for supplies. And I ordered supplies on Amazon just in case.

Bezzle said...

Hah. You guys stock gruel; I'm goin' after the good stuff: Man snacks.

Couple days ago, I noticed a local discount foods store was moving Krave beef jerky for, like, stupid low prices: a dollar a 2.7oz bag. This place usually deals in overstock inventory, and churns fast. Went back today with the van, talked to the manager, and asked, "What kind of volume discount will you give me if I buy you out?"

I bought a palette of Sweet Chipotle for five bucks a box, eight bags per box. No tax.

Anonymous said...

I did not read all of the comments but here are a few more suggestions for supplies. Local paint supply shop sourced n-95 masks and Tyvek suits with booties and hoods also bought 1/2face paint reperators and extra filters. They ran 25.00 each but will last much longer. Bleach substitute was bought in powder form at a local hot tub shop. These items were found in stock in Colorado Springs Co. as of 2/28. I too found some of the good doctors advice salient but if she sticks to her "PLAN" she will become a statistic in the fatality by other cause colum when they total up the dead.

nick flandrey said...

Remember that their goals are not your goals.

It's a big club and you ain't in it.

--

Shoothouse rule #1 applies, No one is coming to help you.

n

(if you intend to sterilize water with any of the POOL chlorine based products FOR DRINKING, make certain they don't have an algaecide included. That stuff isn't safe to drink. As sanitary water, I believe it would be ok.)

n

Anonymous said...

We're pretty much in BFE so we already keep a fair amount of food, but why be fair? We're emulating the local Mormons. (Protip: yeah, Mormons keep a year's supply of food by doctrine. However, they also keep a year's supply of firearms and ammunition, or at least the rurals do.)

Wednesday, we found Clorox wipes and Comet cleanser at Home Depot. They had several different varieties of bleach in stock.

Here's a link on bleach disinfecting.
https://modernsurvivalblog.com/health/disinfectant-bleach-water-ratio/

There's a couple of links on bleach for water purification in that page, but here's the concentration stuff:
https://modernsurvivalblog.com/survival-kitchen/bleach-water-ratio-for-drinking-water/

RCP

Paraclete said...

I've not heard ANYONE who's more qualified
speaking on this subject than Mike Adams that
I would trust. I challenge all to visit
https://healthrangerreport.com/
Once you've listened to a few of the podcasts
look up Adams' bio

Charles in VA said...

And so it begins...

Person dies from coronavirus in Washington state, first in the US, health officials say

https://www.foxnews.com/us/person-dies-from-coronavirus-in-washington-state-first-in-the-us-health-officials-say

I'm still prepping, but I'm 90% there as of today. Everything else the farm will provide.