Thursday, May 19, 2022

Data Points

 

Translation.












 

I. (US News - LONDON) Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost faith in his top general and has fired other senior commanders for their high-profile and embarrassing failures on the battlefield in Ukraine, British intelligence believes.

U.K. military intelligence reports Tuesday morning that the Kremlin has fired Lt. Gen. Serhiy Kisel, commander of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv. International attention has focused on the strategically critical northeastern Ukrainian city in recent days following news Ukrainian forces capitalized on Russia’s retreat and had pushed the invading troopss back to their border. The commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Vice Admiral Igor Osipov, has also come under suspension likely for allowing the flagship cruiser Moskva to sink in April from an apparent missile attack – for which the Ukrainian military claims credit. 

Perhaps most notably, Valeriy Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff – a position roughly analogous to the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs – remains in his post but, British intelligence believes, “it is unclear whether he retains the confidence of President Putin.”

The damning assessment follows reports that at least a dozen Russian generals have died on the battlefield – a seemingly stunning fact that the Pentagon has downplayed as indicative of how the Kremlin goes to war combined with the dysfunctional state of a Soviet-era army.

 

II.  (Metro-UK)Putin ‘facing a coup after his closest allies accept they’ve lost the war’


Vladimir Putin's top security officials think the war in Ukraine is 'lost', making the chances of a coup more likely, an analyst in Moscow says. The chances of the Russian tyrant launching a nuclear strike are receding as it is likely people would refuse to carry out his order. That's according to expert and investigative journalist Christo Grozev, who suggests Putin is losing his grip on power. He says leading officials are unlikely to obey Putin's commands to launch nukes as they don't trust he will still be in power in three months time. 'I think that it is the informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost,' Grozev told Radio Liberty. He said Putin's inner circle understand the president would need a full mass mobilisation to win the war, but this would cause a 'social explosion' in Russia. Some hardliners may pressure for use of nuclear or chemical weapons, Grozev warned. But others will say 'enough is enough' and 'it is better not to waste another 10,000 lives of our soldiers and officers'. Grozev, lead Russia investigator for investigative journalist group Bellingcat, said one or more of the 'five hands' needed to launch Russia's nukes could end up defying Putin. 'And this refusal will be the trigger, most likely, a coup d'état, because after the refusal to comply with the order of the king, everything will go down very quickly,' he added. 'If Putin decides to give an order to use nuclear weapons, he must be sure that everyone along the chain will carry out this order'. If one person does not comply, Grozev says this will be a 'signal of insubordination' which could lead to the 'death of Putin'. 'So until he is sure that everyone will comply, he will not give this order,' he added. It is known that defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the defence staff Valery Gerasimov would both need to sanction a nuclear strike. The journalist said senior figures from the FSB security agency and the GRU military intelligence organisation are preparing for life after Putin. He said the 'FSB elite' knows exactly how many Russian troops have died in Ukraine and knows that the loved ones of the dead or missing 'do not stop asking questions'. 'They know that this situation will eventually get out of hand,' Grozev added. 'This is already a kind of betrayal by these people, because they do not follow the ideological orders of the Kremlin, but are preparing for an alternative reality'.

Bummer for Vlad. 


Curiosity:

"From Elsewhere"

"Russia’s military BS, its inflated readiness and pencilwhipped training & inspections, deceived the worst targets possible: their own high command.

It’s pretty obvious that Russia thought they would pin the bulk of the Ukrainian army’s best units in the Donbas and trap it with a double envelopment, preventing it from pulling back to reinforce the capital, which would be seized by a coup de main striking south from Byelorussia linking up with the airhead at Hostomel.

All very Shock & Awe. Very lighting warfare and deep battle. And literally none of it came true because it was all wishcasting based on undertrained troops and fantasyland readiness reports.
"


We're curious, because a quick quote search on Gulag and Bing revealed no matching language, presumably anywhere (or at least, anywhere its search engines chose to reveal). And Tam, usually happy to post a link, has none for this snippet, merely heading it "From Elsewhere". So our interest is piqued, but we'd rather see the primary source ourselves.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think the Russo-Ukraine War is going splendidly!

The Russians were going to take Kiev and the major Government centers in 3 days, then a week, then ... ? They retreated from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv back across the borders to Belorussia and Russia. Now they are also retreating from Kharkiv back across the border to Russia too.

The Russians finally took Mariopul, a major Ukrainian Port, and secured a land corridor to Crimea and maybe to Odessa too. If they can take Odessa and not lose Kherson instead.

They are still fighting to capture the entirety of Luhask and Donetz Oblasts. They seem to be running short of troops and are even putting individual Syrian and Libyan replacements into RUSSIAN Units. The Ossetians may have gone home? and the Chechens may be getting restive? The Russian separatists in Donbas also seen to be very reluctant to be conscripted. Maybe because the separatist conscripts are in their 40's and 50's?

We are in for a long war unless Putin "retires," Western support to Ukraine collapses, or Russia goes nuclear (then we all lose).

RD

Anonymous said...

Is this something?

The Russians tried to force a river crossing back around May 11. They got about 30 armored vehicles across, but were not able to successfully exploit the bridgehead.

Battle Damage Assessment looks ugly.

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524742847664173057

RD

Aesop said...

In the final tally, they were down about 70 AFVs from that attempted crossing, losing the better part of a battalion task force.

Mike Doyle said...

Remember the line from Tom Clancy when the Soviet General caught four regimental commanders submitting gundecked readiness reports and he ordered up a firing squad?

"Lies are bad enough, but these are STUPID lies!"

I guess Vlad finally read Red Storm Rising...

John Wilder said...

Russian strategy regarding general officer policy unchanged since 1941: when you die at the palace, you really die at the palace. Not sure they have a Rossokovsky, a Zhukov, or a Chuikov no matter how much ammo they expend.

Hedge said...

Hahahaha! 4 idiotic comments. Better go read up fools. https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-the-ukrainian-fighters-will-to-resist-is-deteriorating-fast/

And you should head on over to North Carolina Renegade and read what they have there. I called you out. Can't wait to see your commentary if you have it in you. Probably going to dig that hole deeper and drive more of your idiotic followers away so it's a win win.

Also I noticed you took a swipe at Vox but then buried the post with three more right after. I really think you 2 should go head to head. Why dig on him and then hide? Cause you know he would wipe the floor with you?

Have a great day fools!

Aesop said...

The Saker was and is nothing but the official TASS media viewpoint. Old communists never die, they just get a blog and pretend to be objective. He was the one telling all and sundry that Trump wiping out a Russian air wing in Syria never happened. Then the photos of billions of rubles worth of Mikoyan and Sukhoi fresh scrap came out. He's always been a joke, and always will be, unless you want the official Soviet Union point of view on anything. He can' help himself, it's in his bones.

NCR hasn't posted anything earth-shattering, and the only news I've seen there is that even Russia now admits there were thousands of unharmed fighters dug in at the Azovstahl plant, which number has been verified by the International Red Cross, rather than mere hundreds, all of whom were ordered to lay down their arms and surrender by the Ukrainian military command. Which doesn't say much for 45 days of Soviet siege and artillery fire, does it?

I also took no such swipe at Vox per se, so I have no idea WTF you think you're talking about, unless he's also one of those swilling vintage Putin's Junk by the case, which is no small number of folks. Which,as in your case, is always its own reward. Events are making that position sillier by the day.

Give a holler when Russia displays any competence, or accomplishes anything of note. Thus far, it's been two days of glory for them, followed by 80 straight days of More Bad News, usually accompanied by their newest feature entitled This Week's Dead Russian Generals.

Anonymous said...


How's that "evacuation" from the Sevastopol steel works coming along?

Aesop said...

When last I looked, Sevastopol is in Russian-held Crimea. I was unaware they were evacuating any steel plants there, but perhaps you had some breaking news to share with the class.

How's that cram course in Google maps coming along, Magellan?