Just The Facts, Ma'am

 

From Fran Porretto's blog, this past week, some points to ponder:

All the following factors play into an American’s decision to accept or not accept The Jab:

• The probability of catching the disease.
• The probability that the disease will be fatal.
• The probability that the vaccine will prevent the disease.
• The probability that the vaccine will have side effects worse than the disease.
• Awareness of alternative approaches and the probabilities associated with them.
• Any incentives and coercions associated with accepting or not accepting the vaccine.
• The probability of significant changes to those incentives and coercions in one’s personal context.

     The most significant thing about the above factors is that all of them have large error bars. No one’s sense for any of the probabilities above can be firm enough for confident decision-making.

     That isn’t the case with most older vaccines. The polio vaccine, for example, is well understood. It has been demonstrated to be effective and safe, in the 99%-plus sense in which those words are usually used. But the record of polio vaccine in use is open to anyone who cares to study it. And the polio vaccine wasn’t urged – in some districts, forced — upon us by political forces and agencies with spotty records for veracity.

     In other words, we are being asked to make a potentially life-altering (possibly life ending) decision under a dense, dark cloud of uncertainty. In such conditions, the choice made by some will appear unreasonable to others, perhaps even hysterical.

Go there and RTWT.

(BTW, his rationale stated for not getting the jab is beyond dispute, and similar to my own, though I have a number of additional reasons, which I won't go into at this point. He mave have some additional reasons as well, but the only one he expressed therein is merely legal. My own are political, legal, philosophical, medical, moral, and religious, any one of which would be sufficient for carrying the point, but the weight of all of them makes it an absolute root-hog-or-die no-go decision for me, forever, and I'm willing to play with lives - mine and theirs - as poker chips in that dispute.)

However, his points aren't nearly as murky as he states.

In order:

The probability of catching the disease

While there are dozens of variables, maybe hundreds, this isn't that hard.

Per the Johns-Hopkins Kung Flu map/data page, a cursory look shows the US with a smidge over 36M documented infections. Stay out of the weeds about how accurate the tests were, are, or will be, and focus on a simple reality. There are about 330M people in the US. So your raw shot at getting Kung Flu, over 18 months, has been about 1 chance in 9, or 11% (36 divided by 330 + 10.9%). It's higher in NYFC, suburban Califrutopia, or any major city, and damned near nil in BFE, WY or the Dakotas. And that's after 18 months of this nonsense.

Yes, growth can become exponential, but it literally fell off a cliff last February, when everyone stopped being the World's Biggest Jackasses after ever-bigger holiday gatherings for Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years'. This is because overall, on average, people are bastard-covered bastards, with bastard filling.

The same thing happens with flu, bubonic plague, Ebola, measles, and every other epidemic or pandemic. When people stop spreading the plague du jour by being raging jackasses, either voluntarily or mandatorily, it tapers off. Hopefully before reaching a pK of 100%.

So if you act like a jackass, and hang around with jackasses, as always, when you play stupid games, you'll win stupid prizes. In this case, Kung Flu.

But the average person's chance for getting it can be curtailed just as easily. So on average, in any given year, your raw chance at getting it is right around 10%. (And BTW, the vaxx does nothing whatsoever, on its own, to alter that percentage. Individual behavior once vaxxed, however, increases your odds for getting Kung Flu, and passing it to others. We'll get to that.)

The probability that the disease will be fatal

This past spring, we ran the numbers of 26 states plus the District of Corruption (out of 50 states +). Before politicization, and the rampant Covidiocy from most of America (and the world) having less grasp of actual science of anything, especially epidemiology, than they do of the efficacy of washing their hands before they eat or after they crap, the worldwide accepted CFR for any given coronavirus was 1-5%. Period. (No amount of hand-waving and goat sacrifice will suddenly transmogrify that number down to 0.1%, or 0.000001%, or any other damned thing. If you're doing that, or trying it, you're the witch doctor in that equation. Put down the rattle and bones please.) With Solomonic precision, we assumed that Kung Flu would probably split the middle of that bell curve, assuming no further precautions were attempted.

Well, lo and behold, Hawaii, isolated by an entire ocean, separated into multiple individual islands, and sealed off from air or boat travel for months, had a COVID CFR (deaths-to-cases) raw average of 0.5%. That was the only state we found that got under 1%. NYFS and Joisy,  the over-achievers in the group, after leaving the NYFC Subway open every day for months during the height of the pandemic, without even sanitizing the cars in any way overnight for months, and mandating infected elderly be housed in with uninfected and debilitated potential infectees, managed to achieve 2.8% and 2.9% CFRs, respectively.  Those are the ends of the curve, for the 26+ states we looked at. (You want to check all 50, knock yourself out.) The nationwide average was about 1.9%. This after draconian nationwide and worldwide shutdowns, mask mandates (observed to degrees ranging from solid to not-a-fucking-bit), the halt of all travel, tourism, air line flights, conventions, employment, or school in the country overall, and in at least 45 of 50 states. Which, we point out for the thick-skulled, is doing a wee bit more than the assumed not-a-fucking-thing when we selected 3% as the round average.

IOW, we nailed this. {Haters, suck on that, and enjoy your 6' party sub sh*t sandwich.}

Mathtards who try to lump the uninfected into their totals to get some recockulous lower CFR are quite simply too short for the internet, and too stupid to know what they don't know. The COVID CFR is damned near exactly 3%, and in all but the afore-mentioned case of Hawaii, fell between the 1% and 5% goalposts, just as unpoliticized science told you it would, from before this was fornicated 50 ways to Sunday by known asshats like Fauch the Grouch.

So you can expect, apart from other factors, a 97-98% chance of survival.

If you weigh 350 pounds, smoke 3 packs a day, have diabetes, emphysema, congestive heart failure, asthma, and you're aged 70+, your survival odds drop appreciably. At the other end of the bell curve, if you're 20, run marathons, have 8% body fat, and bench press V-8 engines, your odds go up in the same way. IOW, math and statistics have not ceased to function just because TPTB listen to idiots. That said, healthy 20 year olds can still die, and train-wreck old bastards in the declining years may survive. It's just not the way to bet. This can all be filed under "Duh."

The probability that the vaccine can prevent the disease

Alone among the list in the easiest answer to arrive at, that probability, per the CDC, Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson and Johnson, and everyone with an IQ above room temperature in Buffalo in January with the windows open, have pegged that probability at exactly 0.000%. ever.

Not 90+%.

Z-E-R-O.

Getting the jab means you can still get COVID again, still get sick from it, and absolutely can continue to pass it on to everyone you contact, like Johnny Appleseed with a sack full of Covid virus and a backpack sidewalk blower. For prevention of anything, including needing to wear a snot mask, the vaccines, every damned last one, are all known and agreed to be, completely worthless.

Getting the vaxx does NOTHING to "help others". Let me repeat that point:

GETTING THE VAXX DOES NOTHING to "help others".

NOTHING.

Those same scientific entities all note that there's a possibility that the vaccine may confer you, the recipient, with lesser symptoms on subsequent go-arounds. Except when it doesn't. Which may sometimes mean the vaccinated will have worse symptoms than the unvaxxed.

Yes, really. Hand to God Almighty. You could look it up.

Notably, these truths aren't on the "Get Vaccinated" PSA posters or ads. Wonder why...

They didn't tell you. I just did. Sorry if this is news to you.

The probability that the vaccine will have side effects worse than the disease

This was poor wording on Fran's part.

The disease kills you. And in at least 7000 or so US cases to date, so does the vaccine.

So the way that was worded, the vaccine is just as bad as the disease, but not worse.

Oh, there are also another 6000+ people that we know about with permanent disabilities from the vaxx. Strokes, heart attacks, blindness, etc. It's on the CDC VAERS website. Go look. And BTW, those adverse reactions have nothing whatsoever to do with age or co-morbidities. Being debilitated, and having your young, healthy lifetime stolen overnight, coupled with a lifelong disability, may be considered by some people to be a fate worse than death. Especially with a disease with a 97+% survival rate.

There have been another 250,000 adverse effects reported. That we know about. All those numbers may have been fudged harder than Detroit election returns last November, and we'll probably never know that, or by how much, either. Ever.

What we do know is that of the 11% of the country that's gotten COVID, about 2% of that 11% died, and probably another 2-4% (SWAG there; feel free to link any actual specific numbers) were severely ill and hospitalized, some with permanent damage and disability as a result.

The probability of an adverse reaction (up to and including death) from the vaxx is about 0.2%, as far as we know.

So the vaccine, in raw numbers, is only about 1/10th as lethally harmful as the disease.

Unless you're one of the ones who dies, has a heart attack, stroke, and a small army of other serious consequences. Just like Kung Flu is no big deal to the 98% of people it doesn't kill. But if you die, or your dad, mom, brother, sister, etc, dies, it's kind of a bitch, and it doesn't matter to you at that point that you had good odds, but died anyway, does it?

FTR, in the 70s, there were a small number (53, nationwide) of deaths recorded from receiving Swine Flu vaccine. It was pulled from use immediately and in perpetuity, and that's the last you heard of that. COVID vaxx has killed at least 140 times as many people, yet it hasn't been pulled, and in fact, TPTB want to kill almost as many more to get to 100% vaxx numbers.

At gunpoint, if necessary. For your own good.

For comparison, when 19 ragheaded fanatics flew four planes into NYFC, the Pentagon, and a PA farm field, and killed only half as many people as the COVID vaxx has to date, we went to war worldwide, sent half the military of the US to kill the perpetrators, and laid waste to two entire countries. One wonders when the Army, Navy, Air Farce, and Marines will start napalming the CDC, White House, Congress, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson, which would seem to be absolutely indicated, and which eventuality we would cheer until our throat gave out.

Just saying.

But wait! There's more!

The vaxx has only been around a few months, less than a year even in the earliest experimental forms.

We therefore have no wild idea what new Hells it will unleash on the recipients at 2,3,5,10, or 20 years out. Nor what happens when those recipients reproduce for the next generation and more. Nor will we until 2,3,5,10, and 20 years, and the births (or not) of succeeding generations.

I'm not speculating; just stating the obvious facts. These mystery concoctions may do unimaginable harm to everyone who's gotten it, and to succeeding generations, beyond anyone's wildest imaginations.

Awareness of alternative approaches and the probabilities associated with them

We know there are alternative treatments, which when applied early, make COVID less of a threat than a dose of clap. Hydrochloroquine (HCQ) has been used against malaria for decades, with safety far beyond anything seen for the COVID vaxx jabs. And while it was derided out of Trump Derangement Syndrome rather than scientific and medical rationales early on in this pandemic, even the Enemedia at ABCNNBCBS has had to circle back, and retract their farcical critiques, to admit it both works and is safe.

What we don't know is how much more effective and how much safer HCQ, Ivermectin, or anything else is, because there aren't billion$ of dollar$ in patent royaltie$ for sale worldwide at stake for drugs in common use for decades. Nor does the use of easily-manufactured and safe remedies offer TPTB the prospects of unbridled control over one's entire life, including the power of life and death, let alone work, travel, and such paltry other concerns as being left the hell alone to freely enjoy one's personal birthright of liberty.

Any incentives and coercions associated with accepting or not accepting the vaccine.

The probability of significant changes of those incentives or coercions in one's personal context.

Here, precisely as with the farcical inability of the "vaccine" to provide any protection from the disease, we are on rock-solid footing.

Government overreach, at all levels, only ratchets one way: UP.

The only wrench that corrects that, in all of recorded history, is to start stringing the bastards up by the neck to the nearest tall object, or to shoot the m*****f*****s in the face.

Period. Full stop.

The old Soviet maxim was "plunge the bayonet inwards until you strike steel."

The head of SAC's well-known answer to that was straightforward:

BTW, if the only successful value of "Enough" is 100% of them, I'm just fine with that.

Say "When".

BONUS UPDATE: EXTRA SCIENCEY MONEY SHOT

{As Comments have already borne out, stick to what you know and can prove, kids, and stay away from the wildest imaginary scary hairy boogeyman that you can imagine, or attempt to extrapolate from a gnat hair of truth. This is not an exercise in imagination. More Pasteur, and less H.P. Lovecraft, if you please. The title of the post should have been a hint.}