Friday, August 24, 2018
Just checking in on this one a week further on: nothing earth-shattering.
The Wiki site tally was last updated four days ago.
Things to note:
It's still a thing.
From outbreak onset on 8/1, there were 20 deaths originally (which is how they cleverly deduced it was Ebola).
It took another 14 days to get to 40 deaths.
It's only taken another 6 days to get to 20 more.
IOW, it's tracking with exponential spread quite nicely.
The contacts have gone from 900 on 8/3, to over 2400 now as of 8/20.
This, in a rural war-torn area teeming with 1M displaced refugees in sprawling camps, doesn't bode well for getting a handle on this anytime soon.
And as usual, it's killing the critically short ranks of health care workers there disproportionately, which means they haven't got precautions and sufficient protective apparel anywhere near in place yet.
And the 45 new confirmed cases mainly came from among those in the "suspected" category.
The case tally and lethality is bouncing around, partly because some people are being ruled out, partly because you're always dealing with people who take their shoes off to count above ten, and partly because increasing numbers of victims makes some governmental ministries there look bad. It is what it is.
Reported Ebola-attributed deaths, however, have just about exactly tripled in three weeks.
This isn't new, it's just exactly as gloomy as it looked on first glance.
It hasn't jumped to someplace disastrous, like Kinshasa (pop. 13M), Luanda (pop. 6M), or Nairobi (pop. 3.5M).
Also, the number of "suspected" cases tally has actually diminished, exactly as "confirmed" cases have ballooned, so either they're getting testing done more rapidly (very good), or more likely, the probables simply died, changing their status via pathology exams (very bad). You can get odds on which is likelier.
And at 111 cases, it's at Level 7 (out of 34) on the Pandemic Meter.
No one with Ebola has hopped onto a flight to Cairo, Riyadh, Rome, London, Rio, NYFC, or Atlanta.
That we know of.