Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics

Much has been made by bloggers whom and on sites which I respect, about certain prognostications by Mssr. Briggs, statistician, regarding Kung Flu.

I'm not quibbling about his numbers, just what he makes of them, evidently from an utter lack of knowledge about that of which he speaks.

Unfortunately, Briggs' combines his statistical skills with what he doesn't know about science in general, and epidemiology in particular.

1) There are, indeed, "good" flu years, and "bad' flu years. But it's not a 1- or 2- variable problem set.

    a) there are always older people, some of whom are more frail, and many of whom are going to die. But surviving flu one year doesn't, ergo, make you another year older and thus more likely to die the next year. That's kindergarten math thinking.

    b) How many other conditions does any given grandpa or grandma X have?

    c) What is their general health condition?

    d) Did they get a flu shot that year, or not?

        d1) Did the flu vaccine witch doctors guess the actual flu strain mutations well, and formulate a great shot (a year with a 95% efficacy) or poorly (a year with 15% efficacy). {e.g., in 2018, IIRC, there were 635 individual strains of flu rampant in the US, and that year's shot had about a 15% effectiveness. This is nigh on to worthless, relatively speaking.}

        d2) Was there even a flu shot at all?

(In, to my best recollection, 2010, there was no flu vaccine available at all. Whichever year it was, it was a record low flu year. Because CDC and FedGov bombarded the airwaves with PSAs telling people to "Wash your goddamned nasty hands! Stay home if you're sick!" in so many words, and mirabile dictu, old people and parents of young children actually did it. Flu visits to the ER that year were negligible.)

That exact level of concern, plus masks, and distancing, is why, by all accounts, this year's flu season cases will probably be contained in a thimble.

Those are just some of the 100-500 variables behind who dies, and why, from flu, Kung Flu, or any other thing, in any given year. Not just whether it was a "good" or "bad" flu year, last year.

Yes, it was world-record @$$holian to put known COVID+ cases into convo homes, which are the lowest form of medical care other than anything found in the Turd World, and you get a perfect storm of the most vulnerable patients, and the most execrable level of care not delivered by actual gypsies and witch doctors (and in most convo homes, there's little difference between them. The fact that they reek of sh*t and piss the moment you walk in is what poker players call a "tell".) Those deaths were, indeed,  low-hanging fruit.

That such deaths may have accounted for nearly half the initial wave is bad.

It does nothing for the next wave, unless you stop doing that. I have yet to hear that it's no longer policy. And even if it was, that overlooks the obvious problem: Kung Flu presents asymptomatically in up to 50% of cases (which is why checking for fever temperatures at building entries is like looking for elephants in trees: asinine and pointless.)

If they really wanted to keep infected people out of convo homes (which are still chock full of vulnerable patients, in 50 states and 7 territories), they'd have to be rapid-testing every patient they admit, before entry, and rapid-testing every staff member, daily, and every single visitor, vendor, etc., and holding them in quarantine outside until they test negative (an hour or two later). We don't even do that in first-class hospitals.

Doing so would cost a large fortune, and bankrupt everyone, everywhere.

So the exact same thing is going to happen, over and over and over, because you won't pay for doing it right. No one will.

Own that.

It's the exact asymptomatic Gilligans - the young and "healthy",  who won't get really sick nor die from this - who have been and will continue spreading this virus around, until it hits the susceptible victims, and makes a guaranteed percentage of them very sick, and some of them very dead.

Some of them, yes, will be the aged, infirm, and those with levels of disease that were killing people at age 66 in 1933. (That's why FDR had Social Security kick in at age 65; FedGov expected you to be dead within a year. And then medicine, the same bunch that know-nothing idiots bitch about for the cost, went and started increasing everyone's life expectancies to the 80s. See if you can guess why SS is broke.)

And yes, we know a little bit better what to do (and not to do) to care for those hardest hit by Kung Flu. Which will make about a 1-25% difference in fatalities in subsequent waves. Because those in the roughly 3% likely to die, are still going to die. So maybe now the death rate goes down from about 3% to 2.7%. (The death rate for flu, BTW, is about 0.1%, since ever. Don't you feel better now, knowing this is only 27 times worse than flu, instead of 30 times?)

The biggest problem with those prognosticating from ignorance in general is overlooking the fact that most of the population, in this or any country, has yet to be exposed to the virus.

E.g. Califrutopia, last I looked, has tested about 10% of our 40M people.

The rate of those infected at some point, is running damned near 10%.

With millions tested now, rather than dozens, those numbers are statistically valid (unlike, say, Biden's pre-election poll numbers) and thus (unlike Biden's vote tallies) aren't going to widely fluctuate. Right up until we throw open the floodgates, eliminate any precautions, and start spreading Kung Flu virus around like it was welfare money in a Blue State. (Or blank mail-in vote bundles at any Democrat HQ building.)

Then, the more people you infect, the more people will die.

Yes, only at that +/- 3% rate.

We're pushing 250K dead now, with the infection rate of 10% in certain places (mostly highly populated areas), and probably less than 0.1% in most of the country denigrated as Flyoverland.

So, roll the dice, and tell me what happens when the infection rate goes up everywhere.

Especially if the infection rate goes up by leaps and bounds, rapidly.

And for a special bonus, in the exact places where true modern medical care is 1-4 hours away.

On a good day.

Then we get to the fun questions:

Does infection confer immunity?

I have no goddamned idea. Neither does WHO. Neither does CDC. 

Neither does Pfizer, or any-effing-body else.

I have one firsthand example of repeat infection, hospitalized in front of my face. 

I have dozens of cases reported anecdotally.

I have seen zero literature explaining this.

I have seen or heard of zero literature documenting exactly how widespread this is.

No one knows how much, or how widely, the original strain is mutating.

Thus any claims of vaccine efficacy are so much bullshit.

Any claims of herd immunity are so much whistling past the graveyard.

Any extrapolation of how bad this is going to be, with those exact unknowns being so glaringly obvious, are nothing but Bandini Mountain, with a sewage frosting from downstream of the septic plant.

Do I want fiat lockdowns again?

HELL NO!

Make a case, trot out evidence, not SWAG bullshit, and weigh the benefits and costs.

Medical, scientific, economic, everydamnedthing. Talk it over, and think it through, FIRST.

Then have the legislatures pass laws, or not, and have governors sign or veto them.

Y'know, like republican government has worked going back to, oh Magna Carta, or even Rome and Greece. If only for the novelty.

I went over a month in a SoCal ER with no likely COVID patients. I tell you, it was heaven. A crappy night with no COVID patients was like old times.

That ended last week. Just about 3 weeks behind the spike in cases, we just had, on my shifts alone, 3 slam-dunk sure-as-hell-got-it COVID patients. I had 2 of them personally, and one of them was the re-infection case I wrote about previously. When I left yesterday, we had a guy who literally desatted from 80% to 60% oxygen level in the two minutes it took to get him from the triage tent to an iso room inside. He was in his 50s.

The ICU nurse who died from my hospital got it from a patient who was uninfected, then exposed by an asymptomatic patient in a regular ward, brought it to the ICU, and infected 10 nurses there before they knew it was a COVID case. That nurse was in her early 50s, not her late 80s.

Times, in 25 years of my career, that happens with flu: never.

Not one goddamned time.

Not even a consideration.

So I'm getting pretty damned tired of ignorant @$$holes burping out pure undiluted horseshit quotes like the following:

Young (under 65) healthy people are not being killed by the doom—or much of anything else.

Yes, they are. On a regular basis.

Pointing out that they do so at a lesser rate does nothing to remove the lie from the quote above.

And noting that old people die more often is cold comfort to someone whose 30- or 40-year old spouse died because to pointy-headed number crucncher, they were just a rounding error, or "within the margin or error". If you don't have to look the survivors in the eye while their loved one's bodies are still warm but heading for room temperature, kindly STFU about things when you don't know what the hell you're talking about.

Suppose I told you, with absolute statistical confidence, that if you ran red lights, you only had a 3% chance of getting bashed to hell, killing someone, or going to prison. 

Would you do it?

Suppose I told you that your meatloaf was 97% steak, and only 3% bullsh*t.

Would you eat it?

If you answered "yes", how much shit could I put in your meatloaf before you'd turn it down??

You can tell me that driving is hazardous, because of drunks and idiots. I'll still drive.

Mainly because I don't drive 100% of the day.

But unlike bar fights, liquor store robberies, or drunk driving deaths, everybody alive on the planet breathes, non-stop, 24/7/365, without any choice in the matter.

So unless you can live isolated, or hold your breath for years on end, or live in a spacesuit 24/7, that makes a respiratory ailment in widespread circulation one hell of a lot bigger concern than the other causes of death which, exactly as the CDC and Briggs note, knock off about 50,000 people every year in this country. 

Which makes statistical prognostications from someone like Briggs sound to me exactly like a fresh hot steaming pile of cowshit smells.

I can listen to statistical bullshit from people who don't know what they don't know, or I can believe my lying eyes, backed up by medical evidence, and common sense.

You guess where I'ma come down on that one.