Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Feb 2019 Ebola Update: Cheery Thoughts




















Six months in, the second-worst Ebola outbreak in history trails only the 2014 West African Pandemic Games Ebola world record (Level 15-17, depending on whose numbers you believe.)
You are officially at a Level 10 on the 34-Step Pandemic Panic-Meter©.
FYI, every ten steps or so takes the number of cases up by 10³.
I.e., Level 1 is 1 case (Patient Zero).
Level 10 is 1,000 cases (Now, 6 months into the outbreak).
Level 20 is 1,000,000 cases (At current course and speed, perhaps as soon as this coming August, six months from now. And that's with a near-flawless experimental vaccine in use. Alternatively, maybe only 8,000 cases in August; still bad, but not that much worse than now.)
{And yes, the Black Death and smallpox are still the all-time record holders. So far.}
Level 30 is 1,000,000,000.
Level 34 is everyone. (Minus the infectious but survived-the-initial-infection 20%).

Good News: The vaccinations have made this a slow ramp-up to 1000 cases.
Bad News: No slowing in sight, and at a certain point, things begin instead to accelerate, like rolling a boulder down a steep hill.

FWIW, West Africa topped out somewhere around 90,000 cases and 30K-40K deaths (using the conservative estimate that reported numbers were "only" 1/3 of reality numbers. And Word To Your Mother, with actual mortality numbers, if they had 90K cases - and they did - they had >70K deaths. Even with the 30K number of cases, deaths would have to be around 24K. So you can tell they were lying, because their lips were moving.)

And they admitted two months ago this outbreak would go on at least another six months. Things now are worse than two months ago there, not better. Ponder that before you think this will "burn itself out" ever, let alone anywhere south of 1,000,000 cases.

And yes, the official tally right now is "only" 959, not an actual 1000, but due to the fact that they haven't been able to vaccinate, trace contacts, or even operate health teams in the highest-affected areas for days and weeks at a stretch, the reality is that they probably blew past 1000 cases some weeks ago. I'm going with calling that one now, instead of waiting for next week's WHO report.

And once again, the fatality rate is right on at 80%. Not the happy-gas 60%.
(Go to Wikitardia's page: Take the deaths today. Divide that number by the confirmed  Ebola cases 21 days earlier. Nota bene that result is consistently within a point of 80%, going back to the first weeks of the outbreaks. Math: Still a thing, Wikipedia.)

And in case you weren't aware, Ebola "care" in DRC, and all of Africa, at Ebola Treatment Centers, is always "palliative", i.e. "make their symptoms and inevitable death less uncomfortable", for the 80% who'll expire.The "lucky" 20% who survive will now carry the disease effectively for life (every time they check survivors, they find live virus reservoirs) and can look forward to not only re-infecting friends and family (which may be one hitherto unsuspected source of new outbreaks going back to the 1970s), but eventually going blind, and multiple other lifelong consequences. Good times. Oh, and that's exactly the future for the survivors treated here in the US in 2014-2015. Their lives are functionally over, and they're dead men/women walking.

Bonus point for this outbreak:
 "the World Health Organization indicated that half of confirmed cases were not showing any fever symptom, thus making diagnosis more difficult."

How do they screen out potential Ebola infectees at the airports and border crossings (when they bother to try)?
Fever.













Pleasant dreams.

TL;DR: You don't have enough sand bags, concertina wire, and ammunition for what's coming once it escapes the lab. Again.

Video reference: World War Z.

Forecast: When this becomes as blisteringly obvious to TPTB as it is now, here, any actual and factual reporting on it will be squelched. Just like in 2014.
Watch and see if I'm right. I'd love not to be.

52 comments:

Partisan80 said...

I hope you will let us know when the CDC releases vaccine for U.S. First Responders. That's when I put on my shitting pants.

If you have any readers that translate a Chinese dialect, now would be a good time to monitor any social media for rumint.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

If whitey hasn't left Africa yet he is probably decreasing his timeline for E & E.

Crew said...

I suggest a pre-emptive nuclear strike!

AaMcavoy said...

From what I can read online, the vaccine takes a year to produce and they have about 240k left in the stockpile. And Ebola is now around a city of a million, I think. Is there something I'm missing, or is that as scary as it sounds?

AaMcavoy said...

Sorry, 260k left in the stockpile.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure every one of those 260K doses is already allocated on a list of names and no one reading this comment on Raconteur's site is on that list.

kurt9 said...

Last time you posted on this, Aesop, I did some internet research about this. I found out that ebola can infect and propagate quite effectively through pigs. I'm wondering what other farm (cows) and companion animals (dogs and cats) it can infect as well.

Partisan80, I agree that scouring the internet for Chinese discussion could be informative, given how the Chinese have invested in and involved themselves all over Africa during the past 10 years. This is presumably how it gets into China if it does not burn itself out.

kurt9 said...

This things gets to a million cases, its not going to be containable. I would say we'll be able to see which way the wind blows by April or May.

Aesop said...

I'm hoping that the secret answer is that after it kills all the stupid people, it runs out of steam.
My fear is that the number of stupid people is somewhere around 1B on that continent alone.
Long before the 1M mark, people are going to start jumping ship locally, and inevitably, some of them will be infectious, and they'll hit the First World that way.

Then it's a party.

Noveske Lou said...

The Chinese appear to have a local emulation af Ebola according to this article https://nypost.com/2019/01/10/scientists-discover-new-ebola-like-virus-in-china/

Crew said...

If the Ebola virus can hide in the body of those who survived it, does it also have the ability to hide in the bodies of those who got the vaccine?

Aesop said...

No.
Ebola doesn't "hide", it just never goes away after moving in.
A vaccine, by definition, prevents it from gaining a foothold.

Anonymous said...

With incubation time of up to 30-40 days, one case is gonna kite into Kennedy, or Atlanta, or O'Haire, or ..... [fill in cluefree and unprotected urban locale ]

Immigration has lawys been a PubHealth issue

Pub Health in the 'Kwa = inepticons x ability to lie boldfaced x PC uberagenda

OhioGuy

show me one socialist success in world history said...

I thought that number was roughly the number of doses available several months ago. Curious that the quantity isn't dropping more rapidly.

Crew said...

This is going to help stamp out Ebola, I am sure!

Health workers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo are reportedly offering Ebola-related services, including Vaccinations, in exchange for sexual favors

Anonymous said...

No need to worry, Scientific American reports that the epidemic is "contained" and that there is enough vaccine to go around.

They are scientists therefore they are infallible, put this one in the win column. It isn't polite to ask what happens if a few ebola people happen to travel 100 miles or worse, 5,000 miles to urban areas especially transportation hubs.

Got preps?

.

Aesop said...

Scientific American is smoking crack.

"On 6 November, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated that the current outbreak in the east region of the DRC may not be containable due to several factors. This would be the first time since 1976 that an outbreak has not been able to be curbed."

Anonymous said...

Aesop said...
Scientific American is smoking crack.


Yes but it's organic crack which makes it all good. I bet the top people at Scientific American are connected enough to be on the short list of people who will get the vaccine when ebola pays us a visit (or so they think).

Crew said...

If Ebola pays us a visit then politicians and judges are on the list of people to kill before we die.

No question.

Make sure they know.

Anonymous said...

Many thanks Aesop for your reporting on ebola, no one else is doing this work except for the "all is well, go back to sleep" reports that occasionally come out of the MSM.

Keep it up.

Stealth Spaniel said...

What has happened to the 2 nurses who got infected? And what about the "doctor" who came home to his family?

Tom said...

They've been showing the movie "Outbreak" on AMC cable again. The US patent was re-applied for Oct 4, 2012 by Towner et al for the govt.

Tucanae Services said...

At minimum they probably got the vaccine already, fkers.

Domo said...

Production times are tricky
Depends where you measure from.

One of the ingredients of the Tamiflu vaccine is extracted from Star Annise.
If you need to grow more trees, you have a very long production timetable indeed, about 6 years from seed to fruition.

They could be churning out 500 doses a day now, and could be at 500,000 a day in a year, or 5000.

Domo said...

Presumably they are making it as fast as they are using it.

Anonymous said...

(from ncgreg231Lc2) Are there any reports of someone like “typhoid Mary” who is totally infected & contagious but do not show any actual symptoms of the disease?

Anonymous said...

Huh.
Perusing the ZuckerBorg and I see a preview.
Apparently there's a film on National Geographic called The Hot Zone coming Memorial Day.
Warning?
Dramatization of past events?
Oh joy.

Andrew

Aesop said...

@Andrew

Yeah, saw the preview on YouTube yesterday.

I see it as "preparing the ground".

Memorial Day may be leaving things a bit late, though.

Bear in mind this thing was shot last year, when there was no major active outbreak.
And yeah, it's a dramatization of past events.

Wynn Anderson said...

intel from BP regarding the caravans; from May 8 through June 23 there were 7 Special Interest Aliens from the Congo; from october 20-24 there were 40 Special Interest Aliens from the Congo.

Anonymous said...

https://nypost.com/2019/02/13/women-fear-being-asked-for-sex-in-exchange-for-ebola-vaccine-charity/

Anonymous said...

OK people, I know a guy who actual knows the head of Infectious diseases for the Navy. When i told him to prep for the Ebola Whiskey Tango Foxtrot he shot an e-mail off to the Navy guy. First response was "Why do you ask?" Second was "Nothing to see here" He has gotten this twice now. So using the mirror rule, Aesop is right on target, We are screwed. Get preps for two years and ammo for three.

Spin Drift

Anonymous said...

Question for Aesop or anyone else: Do any of the anti-viral meds like Tamiflu work against the ebola virus? Would doses of anti-virals be a potential treatment or prophylactic measure?

Axing for a friend.

.

Crew said...

Tamiflu is specific to HxNx and its modes of exit from the cell. It is a neuraminadase inhibitor. Neuraminidase is what HxNx uses when exiting the cell to avoid being rebound to sialic acid on the cell surface.

See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oseltamivir. It seems not recommended for low-risk people.

Ebola is a different beast.

George True said...

I originally ended up at this blog during the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. I was trying to find real news and accurate information about WTH was really going on with that outbreak. The alphabet mainstream enemy media were all parroting "All is well!". This blog was the ONLY place I found real information. I got a lot of "rest of the story" information from my friend who works for CDC when he got back from his two month stint in Sierra Leone, but that was after it was mostly over.

I have made this blog a daily read since then, as it became apparent that Aesop was not just an Ebola one-trick pony. He was and is tapped into accurate information on many of the most pressing issues of our day. And I also always knew that sooner or later, Mr Ebola would come around again. And as before, this blog is the only reliable source of information that I have been able to find.

NotDoctor/NotAdvice/ResearchIt said...

Vitamin C, taken intravenously has been shown stop Ebola, Marburg, et al. See Curing the Incurable: Vitamin C, Infectious Diseases, and Toxins, 3rd Edition Levy, Thomas E., Brand: Livon Books.

It is your only viable option, if you don't get the vaccine. Get the necessary items and earn how to self-apply or get to know a nurse or other health professional who could give it to you. Orally is a not really an option, though lipsomal Vitamin C might work (up to 10X more effective than standard) to help you survive.

Be aware, there are people who react to large doses of Vitamin C with oxalate nephropathy (small percentage like anything else due to human variability), which is a crystallization of the renal filtration system which leads to renal failure. The counter is prednisone. So you should have both C and prednisone on hand.

A word to the wise.

Aesop said...

Large doses of Vitamin C give you the shits. That's all.

Any other use than preventing scurvy is snake oil.
Anyone taking enough to do kidney damage is a five-star jackass, and a certifiable loon.

Thanks for playing.
Feel free to travel to DRC and try out your theory in person, and write and tell us how it works for you.

If the lines are busy here, try calling George Noury's show, or maybe Alex Jones.

Anonymous said...

All who contract the disease and survive are then fully infectious carriers for the rest of their lives.

Ominous Cowherd said...

The medical literature from the '30s has quite a few accounts of curing bacterial and viral infections with intravenous vitamin C.

A Texan said...

A bit off topic (because I can't find an email addy for you, Aesop), here's something that has the chance to kill people a bunch faster (at least in the early stages) than Ebola:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6703509/Border-security-brawl-near-serene-resolution.html

You see, Mrs. Pelosi apparently believes that because Trump has or may declare a national emergency to build a wall, some future Dem President can declare a national emergency and confiscate everyone's guns.

I thought that you (and most of your readership) would find that to be of some interest.

AaMcavoy said...

If a Pres tries to confiscate everyone's guns, it'll be the greatest step toward liberty in hundreds of years. That is, after the blood dries on all the federal buildings.

The red flag confiscation laws are the real worry. Pick us off one by one.

Aesop said...

The "medical literature from the '30s"??
You mean back when strokes were called apoplexy, and TB was still known as "consumption"?
The "medical literature of the '30s" also advocated for treating snakebite by cutting X-shaped incisions over the fang punctures, and sucking the poison out.

That's why it's medical history, rather than medical treatment.

And BTW, the total number of viral infections we can "cure", to date, is still zero, with or without vitamin C.
We can vaccinate against them, but once you've got them, the best anti-virals do nothing but palliate the duration and severity of the infection.

Nobody's going to duck out of this plague with orange juice.

Beans said...

Over on Angus McThag's site is an interesting and scary summary of the 1918 'Spanish Influenza.' https://mcthag.blogspot.com/2019/02/interesting-summary-of-spanish-flu.html

Apply what happened then to Ebola now and it's almost to the point of sucking a gun in order to escape from the upcoming fun times.

We barely survived during Barky the Moonbat's reign and his and his administration's improper handling of it. And I don't think, with the liberal judges in control of so many federal courts, if we can survive it now. Any shutdown or quarantine order from Trump and his administration will be quashed before the ink is dry.

Yehaw.

As to '30's medical treatments before antibiotics, well, they didn't write a lot of articles about what didn't work. So if the patient survived some stupid homeopathic treatment and the illness, the patient was lucky. Same goes for massive doses of Vitamin C. Yes, you can help your immune system to a point with supplements, but in relation to Ebola, anything over the counter is as effective as 1 layer of wet cardboard as body armor.


Thanks, Aesop, for distilling all the medical mumbo-jumbo and stuff into something we all can understand. Your ability to read between the lines is amazing, and scary. First time I heard that once one has Ebola one has it and is potentially infectious for life was here.

Anonymous said...

OT I know but there is another beauty spot that may be getting more exciting although not in the same way as the DRC. Terrorists drove a car packed with explosives into a bus carrying Indian para-military troops killing at least 44 people. The blast could be heard for miles and debris was thrown 100 yards away. Other sites estimate the car may have been carrying 200 lbs of explosives.

PM Modi of India is up for election in May and there is pressure on him to "do something" about the terrorism. Pakistan denies involvement in the incident but naturally this is not believed. Both countries have nuclear arsenals and fought wars in 1947, 1965 and 1971. China is an ally of Pakistan and a potential enemy (again) of India with which it fought a border war in 1962. The border with China is still in dispute.

Just another potential crisis that bears watching.

NE Heretic

Anonymous said...

I wonder how good first class, First World medical treatment does against Ebola: an interesting experiment would be to expose Ruth Bader Ginsburg to someone with an active case of it...seemingly nothing else can kill the bitch, she's back at work.

Ned2 said...

So, what's the best source to monitor possible contagion in the country?
Will the CDC come clean if there's an incursion of Ebola into the country, and if so are they expected to be honest about it?


Will lead work on ebolozombies? Or do I need silver or something?

Anonymous said...

" . . . an interesting experiment would be to expose Ruth Bader Ginsburg to someone with an active case of it...seemingly nothing else can kill the bitch . . . "

She probably died six months ago, they just stuffed her like a taxidermist does and wheel her around. She is so nasty she would probably kill the ebola once the virus got a good look at her. She would frighten it to death, she has that effect on people.

BTW if RBG is "back at work" and previously "attended a play" and also supposedly walks one mile a day on a treadmill why are there no current pictures? They wouldn't be lying, would they?

Anonymous said...

Lymes disease is very similar. The disease itself stays within the fatty tissue of major organs for a lifetime. Symptoms can reappear (certain symptoms, not all) at any time - then disappear just as fast. Not to mention the lingering effects like arthritis, inflammation of kidneys, liver, spleen etc..Those maladies are even with successful treatment within the specified diagnosed time frame (10- 12 days after being bitten and showing signs of the disease).

Anonymous said...

And I say...Dammit Jim...Dammit...

John Wilder said...

This is one I've been waiting on a day off with nothing to do to watch. You may have seen it already. I'm only about 10 minutes in, but at around 8 minutes ebola shows up.
Link to video on Feral Irishman

Anonymous said...

This blog post was linked to on Chris Martenson's Peak Prosperity weekly recap. That will probably get you a lot of hits. Thanks for keeping us informed.
Mary

Daniel K Day said...

John Wilder, that link does not work.

Shannon Rooney said...

The real bitch is Kavanaugh...he's Trump's bitch.