More Napkin Math

 

Putin's gonna peg the Ruble to gold, and knock off the dollar! Eleventy!! ZOMG!!!

Natzsofast, Guido.

Last year's Russian budget was $233,000,000,000. (Way more than that - 16 TRILLION - in Rubles, which are worth about a penny, and less now that two months ago.) Russia's gold on hand, per some commenter, which we'll stipulate for humor purposes, is 2200 tons. At current rates of gold/dollar exchange, that means that the Russians printed 33% of the government spending out of Putin's ass-gas from borscht and caviar. And that's only LAST year. That means everything they printed every year prior and every year from now on is ass-gas too. Times, what...32 years, just since the birth of the current Russian Federation?!? And forward in perpetuity??

(Bonus: Anyone remember why the Soviet Union collapsed? Anyone? Beuller?? Ferris Beuller...???)

And the Russian government budget is only 20% of their national GDP.

IOW, in order to meaningfully peg the ruble to gold, they'd need 7-8 times more gold than they have, which would be 50% of the total known gold reserves of the entire world, which they ain't got, ain't gonna get, and never will have.

And the Russian economy is only about 7% the size of the US economy. We have double their gold reserves, and we couldn't do what they're announcing in a thousand years, short of worldwide ironclad agreements, and massive deflation, which would also halt all government money printing virtually forever. NTTAWWT.

This is like Texas trying to take over the world by printing Confederate money, and requiring it (or gold) to buy Stetsons, Pace Picante Sauce, and Igloo Coolers.

Sh'yeah, when monkeys fly outta my butt.

Not. Happening.

And in any event, neither Putin, nor Russia, nor anyone sane, is ever going to swap rubles for gold. That ship sailed for good in 1971. Which means this is all Russian bullshit, and the ruble is, and will continue to be, finely-engraved toilet paper, just like all fiat currencies. (Including the dollar, as we've told you, and told you, and told you.)

It would take a simultaneous agreement for 5300% worldwide deflation, from everyone, and a permanent exchange rate, to back the world by stable currencies, using all gold reserves in existence, divided by the current planetary GDP.

Your $10K in savings would be worth about $189.

Your $50K annual salary would shrink to about $18/wk.

That's 46¢/hr. $3.68 for an 8-hour day.

Minimum wage (from $15/hr) would be 28¢/hr. $2.08 for 8 hours.

And that's pre-tax income. Uncle Gimme and his state and local minions would still have their hands out for 10-50% of what you make.

Gasoline (from $6/gal) would be selling for 11.9¢/gal.

8¢/gal in the free states.

And so on.  

Forever.

Get 200 nations to sign on to that, and we can back everything with gold, forever.

Until then, as neither Russia nor any sane nation will ever again trade their fiatbux for physical specie (gold or silver), this is all smoke and mirrors. Fairytales. Vaporware.

To be crudely blunt, but precise, the only way Putin's pegging the ruble with gold is like this:

There may come a point where the dollar isn't the international reserve currency*.

But this news ain't it. It would take a helluva lot more than just Russia to do that.

Stop swallowing the doom porn. Pay your bills, and go deep on the preps you can.

That is all.

*UPDATE: Want to see how it's far more likely to come about?

Capitalist Eric: RTWT h/t WRSA

[Pro Tip: You've heard about this from Peter at BRM. You've heard it from CA at WRSA. You've heard it from me. You've heard it from Phil at Bustednuckles. And from John Wilder. You've probably heard it from Deninger and Tyler Durden a time or twelve too. Now Eric is piling on, in splendiferous detail. Bracken. Ferfal. Selco. Michael Yon. ,Rawles, since ever. And on and on. Maybe, just maybe, at some point, the penny will drop for you, if it hasn't already. And you'll start to think in terms of a world where those green pieces of paper in your wallet and bank account are worthless. And you'll decide to prepare for "Then what?", hopefully while there's still some brief period of time to do so.

Nota bene: NOBODY is telling you to run around like a headless chicken, or a person whose head is on fire. They're telling you that the financial system you take for granted, and have your whole life, is a house of cards, and a windy day is coming. Make prudent preparations for that. If you can figure this out for yourself without being a spaz now, you'll never have to be one later. I'm guessing the Fukushima Tsunami was a lot more fun to watch from over here, than it was on the coast of Japan in real time. I'd venture a guess that financial collapse will be a lot like that too, and high ground for that looks a lot like arable land with available potable water, a garden and some barnyard animals, friends and neighbors to ride the river with, clear fields of fire, and being pretty self-sufficient for most to all normal needs. Just like for 37 other possible problems.

Worst case? You're early, or it never happens, and you're still ready for a buttload of other grief from any number of scenarios.

Don't care? No problem. Suture self.]

What He Brings

 h/t Michael

It's Come To This

 

Silver Linings

 

Calculus

 

The Bitch-Slap Heard Round the World

 

1. I like Will Smith. I like Chris Rock. Neither of them came off this looking their best.

2. Rock has cracked on Will Smith many times. Smith has never smacked him around before. So let's look at what changed.

3. Jada Pinkett Smith was at the Oscars, because she's a bona-fide actress, and married to Will Smith, nominated for Best Actor this year, for 25 years.

4. Rock is divorced.

5. There is a comedy line. And I'm not talking the PC cancel-culture nonsense. There are simply things you don't do. Rock knows this now, just like how a man who picks a cat up by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way, as Mark Twain famously observed.

6. If Rock had poked fun at Smith for having big ears, or doing Wild, Wild West, or noted Jada Smith is more likely to get a Golden Raspberry Award than an Oscar, that would have been in-bounds. And, to be fair, Smith even laughed at the joke about Jada and G.I Jane 2. Right up until his wife let him know the joke at her expense wasn't funny. Her face looked like stone.

7. At that point, Smith sent Rock a message: you don't get to kick retarded kids, and you don't get to crap on a man's wife because of her physical appearance due to her medical condition (alopecia). 

8. People will try to throw out "Rickels" or "Dangerfield", by way of excuse: No sale. Both teased friends and strangers in good fun, and said so publicly every time they did it, and you knew there was no malice in their rips. Anyone who can't tell that after watching them perform for 2 minutes isn't paying attention. 

9. Until last night, Rock didn't know the difference. Now he does.

10. He also knows why it's called a "punchline", and that the Supreme Court wasn't kidding when they recognized that some speech qualifies as provocative "fighting words". "Sticks and stones" isn't a valid argument. Don't believe me; go to any bar, and call someone's companion an "ugly bitch". Be sure you have full dental coverage beforehand. Tell the class how it works out for you. Once your jaw wires are removed.

11. Rock doesn't have cinematic immunity for being a rude jackass just because he's on international TV. But with his one good ear, he'll probably pay a bit more attention to his own inner filter.

12. Standing there afterwards didn't show class; it showed he didn't have the grace to say "I went too far; I apologize". That would have been the Bigger Man gesture. But he doesn't have that in him. And maybe getting someone with more class and grace than recent edgy smartasses to emcee what is supposed to be the biggest event in Hollywood would be a better idea. The Academy hasn't found anyone who was more funny than irritating, and more humorous than raunchy, since Billy Crystal hung up his tux a few years back.

13. Will Smith doesn't have an anger problem, he has a sense of proportion. (Timing, not so much. If he'd instead socked Rock with a closed fist behind closed doors, he'd have saved his wife's honor and his own reputation, and perhaps more effectively with less backlash.) But sometimes, you have to throw an elbow - once - in a televised game, to get some respect. There is something salutary, in a civilizational way, in seeing a husband literally stand up and take a poke at someone who has transgressed the bounds of propriety. If anything, Smith was too gentle with Rock, but in any event, I suspect his point landed home simultaneous with the slap.

14. The big winners were the producers of the show, because it took a probable new record audience low and turned it into an event that'll be talked about for years to come. Rock looks like a graceless jackass, and Smith will have to deal with people thinking he's a hot-head, after 53 years of being no such thing. If the Academy is smart, Rock and Smith will be paired as co-presenters next year, and Rock should wear a sparring helmet. 

15. Smith's recognized acting talent means he's far from over, and Rock's comedy will always find an audience. But unless this hatchet gets buried, they probably shouldn't share the stage in the future. And the notes to future emcees should probably include the delightfully old-fashioned concept that cracking jokes about the spouse of one of the premier headliner honorees is neither funny, wise, nor in-bounds.

16. The only thing Rock did right was not to file a police report. No victim: no crime. That saved him more than Smith, because the LAPD wouldn't make any arrest, and the D.A., in fact no D.A., would ever file charges even if they did. Because they know half or more of any jury would hear about Jada's Smith's medical diagnosis, and in that light, refuse to convict Will Smith of anything short of "he should have closed his fist before he smacked him". Nine chances out of ten, the judge dismisses the case out of hand before trial, because of the precedent in Chaplinsky v New Hampshire, if it ever even got that far.

17. Don't start nothing, won't be nothing.

Rock is lucky Will was channeling Chapelle, and not Fishburne.

UPDATE: Divemedic, who took issue with our analysis of the Alec Baldwin incident, comes to the same conclusions we did here, and for the same reason: there are some jackassical things you might do that merit someone taking a poke at you.

Let's You And Him Fight

 

Serendipity Doo Dah

 

Sunday Music: So Bright

 

After last week's pick, and with all that's going on, you had to know that once I'd dusted this one off, it was coming at you on a Sunday. Top 20 rocket for one-hit wonder Timbuk3 from Christmas of 1986.

The Problem With Fanboys

 

When literally nothing can shake your belief that Russia is "winning" in Ukraine, you're not advocating a position based on facts and logic, you're proselytizing for a mystery religion.

Russians stacked up for weeks with no notable gains? Russia is winning!

More Russian generals dead in 4 weeks in Ukraine than the US lost in 3 major wars and five smaller conflicts since 1964? Russia is winning!

Video after video of Russian tanks and AFVs getting blown up, captured intact, out of gas, loaded with ammo, even towed into their barns by farmers with tractors? Russia is winning!

Russian soldiers filmed in tears claiming they were lied to, surrendering cold, hungry, and broken, crying to mama, and running over their own brigade commanders with a tank in rage? Russia is winning!

Normally, one has to hold to a belief in globull warmism, systemic racism, or the holiness of diversity to believe this level of bullshit despite all contrary evidence.

Let's talk turkey: Russia's army, on paper, started this conflict a 10:1 favorite. This was literally a modern David-versus-Goliath tale.

Then, Reality kicked in.

1) The Ukrainians rather obviously have united in not wanting to be taken over. This, alone, guarantees Russia can never, ever win, unless they kill every single Ukrainian in existence.

2) The Russians troops of 2022 are not the Russian Soviet Army of 1980. It's a shell of its former self, and the guys that fought in their last combined-forces war are all 90+, or dead. They haven't fought a war like this since 1945, which is to say, the institutional ability to do so is ancient history. They're ill-equipped, under-trained, unmotivated, poorly led, hopelessly inadequate to knocking off a relative pipsqueak army like Ukraine's, and have no chance in hell of taking on 40M partisans for the next 20 years. 

3) Their tactics are 1950, but they're running into weapons from 2020. Picture Pickett's Charge at the Somme, and you're starting to get the idea. Unescorted tanks are being turned into corpse canneries. Guided by drone surveillance and targeting, and blown to hell by defenders the fanboys say are "cut off, without any chances". [Murphy's Rules Of Combat: When you're winning, be sure and tell the enemy.]

4) Their secure comms didn't work. Their unsecure comms are jammed. They tried to use cell phones, which were intercepted at first then taken offline. They're now down to wire, and runners.

5) Command and control is getting whacked at a prodigious rate, in a notoriously top-down hierarchical command structure where anyone below the rank of general has to ask permission to do anything. And their generals keep having their heads go all explodey.

Contrary to the fanboys' fervent contentions, this could be disproven. The Russians could start moving through Ukraine like a German blitzkrieg, kicking ass and taking names. They could take Kyiv, roll across the Dnieper, and hurtle all the way to the borders of Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, driving hordes of fleeing ethnic Ukrainians into permanent exile forever. But a month into this, they show no signs of the basic ability to do any of that. Hundreds of MANPADs have kept them from gaining air superiority. Javelins have made their armored attempts almost as obsolete as Polish horse cavalry charging panzers with wooden lances.

In a move straight from my namesake, the currently operative cover story is that they "never really wanted to capture Kyiv", and that sitting bogged down in mud, immobile, and watching their capabilities blown to hell day in and day out for a month was their cunning battle strategery all along. How cleverly facile. Move the goalposts, and declare that you scored a touchdown. Brilliant! Russia hasn't done that so hamfisted-obviously since the '72 Olympics men's basketball finals.

Now you've got Russian Kremlin spokesholes trying to sell you the line that "wherever we ended up now is where we really wanted to be all along".

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. "The grapes were probably sour anyways."

With maybe 85% of it's raggedy-ass incompetents left, despite running out of fuel, food, and munitions with every shot fired, might Russia still manage to trample Ukraine, by sheer weight of forces? Sure.

And then what?!? Face a population 10 times more fiercely motivated and 500 times bigger than the mujahideen in Afghanistan, last seen kicking the once-mighty Soviet Army the fuck out of that debacle?

Putin can't even keep Russians in Moscow in line over this invasion, even after arresting them in the thousands; he has fuck-all chance of keeping Ukrainians down, even if he captures Zelenskyy and puts him up against a wall on live TV tomorrow. Despite Russia turning Mariupol into a modern-day Hiroshima (minus the radioactivity), no one is running up to the Ukrainian government HQ and throwing molotov cocktails at the walls. OTOH, Putin appears to be getting his advice on charm and leadership from the biographies of Idi Amin and Saddam Hussein. Nothing he has done, is doing, or even could be contemplating, are the things people do who are winning a war.

But the fanboys, reading some Q-tarded version of Russian hagiography, have convinced themselves St. Vladimir is playing 97-dimensional chess here.

If believing that level of delusion helps you get through the day, that's your business, but don't piss yourselves when things don't work out like you thought they would.

Given the raving idiot on our end of the playground, things overall are liable to go from bad to really shitty, whether fast, or more slowly. It would therefore behoove you to stop sniffing glue as you get your own crap in one bag, and start facing up to how things really are right here at home. Crazy people are a luxury in hard times, and the first to be thrown under the bus. Putin isn't your friend, never was, and he isn't coming to save you either.

And whatever the final outcome, Russia turning out to be the most hamstrung, impotent, and incompetent fighting machine since the Judean People's Front is the best news to come out in 2022. The stupid bastard running the show there not realizing that is the worst. It's never pretty when delusional megalomania meets harsh reality, and it's worse for anyone in range of the rage that results from someone putting a Javelin missile right through that castle you were building in the clouds.

And now, he can't have heart-to-heart chats with Obozo, nor even go to Pedo Island to relax and decompress.

And Czar Vladimir wept, because there were no more worlds his paper army could conquer.

So stop gargling Putin's junk, and start learning lessons from the side you hate to admit is stacking them up.

Because when Spicy Time starts here, which side d'ya think you're going to be on...??

Leviathan's? Or the guys trying to bring the beast down?

Best wrap your head around that answer right quick.

Objects in crystal ball are closer than they appear.

Tomorrow In The White House Basement...

BREAKING: Awwwww FU*KKKKKKKK!!! Here We Go Again!

 h/t Gateway Pundit and CTH

RTWT. And watch the included video.

Unless he fell and hit his head, Poopypants appears to have let the cat out of the bag that the 82d Airborne Division will be deploying to Ukraine (elements may already be in place there).

Fuck-fuck-fuckity-fucking-retarded-asshole-fucking-moron-FUCK!

I HOPE this is wrong. Or just Poopypants' dementia talking!!!

Please be a massive misunderstanding!!!!!

White House spokeshole says policy hasn't changed.

Option A:

If it isn't a misuderstanding, this is how WWIII begins.

Period.

That is all.

When you put Lt. Shitforbrains in charge, you get a Pvt. Hudson epiphany, every single time.

And if this pans out as the actual plan, the hell with it: invoke the 25th Amendment, have the Cabinet declare him mentally incompetent to carry out the duties of office, yank his ass into Bethesda Medical Center, and swear in Kneepads. Before Poopypants bumbles into blowing up the entire fucking planet.

Option B:

And if it's not, because he was just riffing in an Alzheimer's haze: invoke the 25th Amendment, have the Cabinet declare him mentally incompetent to carry out the duties of office, yank his ass into Bethesda Medical Center, and swear in Kneepads. Before Poopypants bumbles into blowing up the entire fucking planet.

There's nothing like a slow news day, I swear.

UPDATE: Russian response

Hard Times Menu Item

Awhile back, I decided to dry-run my preps for a month, for all the right reasons (including eating them before they potentially went bad).

Consider this a refresher for some, and a heads-up for all. 

Menu item #1:

Meat and rice.

FWIW, 1/2 cup of Minute Rice is a one-person serving. You can dial that up or down, based on (Number of Mouths To Feed).

Boil the rice in water for 5 minutes (or microwave it for 1 minute, my preferred method)†.

Your goal for the water is to have just enough for the rice to absorb, and little to no extra.

For the last minute, throw in meat (of choice). That heats it to edibility as well.

My go-tos for that:

a) Canned chicken (Costco staple).

b) Canned ham or pulled pork.

c) Canned roast beef chunks. (Former Costco staple, currently still available, at premium prices. Watch for sales.)

d) Canned Tuna

e) Canned Tiny Shrimp

f) slab of SPAM (any variety)

g) Anything else you want to try.

Nota bene: 

1) All of the above rice additives are canned, pre-cooked, and in a pinch, could be safely eaten cold. But they taste a helluva lot better piping hot.

2) One standard can of a/b/c/e is enough for two meals, or one meal for two people. As with the rice, dial up or down as necessary for your number of diners. Thus one can and two rice servings is dinner for two nights, or two people. Or, breakfast and dinner the same day. Figure it out for yourself.

3) Hot is good. Seasoned is fantastic.A few dribbles of teriyaki sauce to taste makes the chicken and ham taste worlds better. Worcestershire is my fave for the roast beast. And tartar sauce for the seafood. YMMV. Point being, any sauce, ketchup, mustard, those previously listed, McIhenny's Tabasco, or whatever you will, gives some flavor to the meal that the truly hungry will find mouth-wateringly delicious. Experiment for yourself, and stock the condiments alongside the staples.

4) Any pre-cooked meat will work. Anything raw/fresh should be cooked appropriately, unless you also want to test out your disaster plan for food poisoning, diarrhea, vomiting, etc. I do not recommend that test, but you're all big kids now, so you can play by Big Boy Rules.

5) For additional goodness, per the opening illustration, you can throw in quantities of canned corn, peas, carrots, Veg-all, etc., for taste, dietary balance, and additional calories. Once again, work it out. Does it work? A billion-plus Asians can't be wrong.

Starving college kids can usually figure this out, but in case you needed a booster step, there it is. I fit food for a month for two adults into four banker's boxes, and it worked just fine as earthquake supplies for ten years*. And when I ate it at the end of that time, it was all perfectly good.

And yes, for those not new to the kitchen, noodles can substitute for rice (though they don't store as long, nor as well). It also gives you a whole universe of new sauce and menu options, including spaghetti, stroganoff, etc.

If you're in the position to grow wheat, and/or potatoes, let alone raise the chickens, pigs, and cows necessary, you're already in the MasterClass here. For those of more limited circumstance, many good options remain, provided you don't wait until five minutes too late to get started on your plans.

Weekly dinner menu (with rice):

M-beef T-beef W-chicken Th-chicken F-pulled pork S-pulled pork Su-Special

Special was a mini canned ham or SPAM Turkey, and as many of the extras as I could manage: stuffing, corn, canned potatoes - new and/or sweet - applesauce, cranberry sauce, etc. A weekly mini-Thanksgiving treat, if you will. You're going to need it.

I mainly saved the tuna (the 3-pack of mini cans) for lunches (alternated with PB&J), and did the SPAM (regular, and bacon-chunked) as part of breakfasts.

Fruit and pudding cups or cans, dried fruit (raisins, etc.) and hard candies, rounded things out.

If vermin are a problem, go with the big round popcorn can tins, or metal trash cans with tight lids.

4-8 cups of rice (I break mine down into single servings placed in WalMart craft supply ziplock bags), about 15-20 cans of food and 2-3 jars, a couple/three bottles of condiments, a quart of water, and the means to heat food 7-14 times/week, and it was meals for days. In about 2 ft² of space. For reference, a 20' Conex box holds 86 man-years of food like that, with space to spare. IOW, you could sock away multiple years worth of food, supplies, extras, propane, etc., in that amount of space, for a dozen people. (Which dozen pipe-hitters and skill-bringers would be another good thing to have handy.)

If you made it out of cinder blocks instead of a rust-prone conex, and waterproofed it, with a concrete slab floor and roof, it'd fit within (better yet, under) the tiniest back yard, and be impervious to damned near everything (including both the government, and your nosy neighbors, provided one has the wits not to tell them about it).

Something to think on right about now.

One other tip: Companies in all fifty states sell pre-stressed concrete culvert in sizes up to big-enough-for-trains, in both round and rectangular dimensions, as well as manhole entry couplings. Imagine Legos, for grown-ups. (I.E.: Dig hole. Lay gravel. Buy culvert pieces. Drop Culvert. Waterproof seams. Attach manhole segment. Backfill and bury. Walk away.)

A can of food is a meal. A box of cans is a food supply. A small stash of them is a storehouse. Being able to replace them with fresh components is a food system. Aim for systems. That's how civilizations sustain themselves.

Food is good. Calories equal survival. Period.

*It also included the afore-mentioned PB&J, instant soups, cocoa, tea, coffee, sugar, dehydrated milk and butter, etc. Basically each box was a week-sized MRE, with much better components.

† One solar panel, one deep-cycle battery, a charge controller, and a robust inverter = endless power for the microwave. Anywhere, potentially.

Alzheimer's Means Never Remembering Jack or Sh*t

 

In Kneepads' case, she already has sh*t for brains, so she doesn't need the morbidly advanced case of Alzheimer's that Emperor Poopypants is laboring under every waking moment (which, with 11AM daily naps, isn't very many each day).

With this level of IQ running the sh*tshow? Dig your bunker deep, and stock it well. It only gets worse from here, and you probably won't recognize today a month or three hence.

Recall that on New Year's this year, gasoline was about $4/gal here in Califrutopia, and $3 everywhere else. It's $6 here now. And this is still the early innings.

Also before January, the only time anyone (who wasn't wearing a tinfoil chapeau) was seriously concerned about nuclear war was 1989.

1989, FFS.

Wait until the coming supermarket stocking policies that hearken to Venezuelan levels of nothing available.

When you also recall that the war was ginned up in the first place to distract everyone from all the disastrous policies of this clownshow of idiots, it would be ironically comical in the extreme to see what it's actually accomplished. If only it wasn't for your empty shopping carts, skyrocketting inflation, and shrinking paycheck, day after day.

This Is All 100 Of Them

 h/t J.Kb @GFZ

...and the next 500 sociopaths waiting in the wings for a job vacancy, and 50,000 more douchebags running for everything from HOA assistant gauleiter all the way to every local, county, state, and federal office there ever was.

Anyone who files to run for office should be disqualified for life.

No one should ever be allowed to serve unless they can get 5000 people with valid voter registrations in the jurisdiction to sign a draft-for-office petition, at a personal cost of $1/signature, and it should take three declinations, and subsequent re-drafts (with no repeat signatures allowed) before one was allowed to accept and qualify for the ballot. The signatures should also represent a valid geographic and demographic distribution from the relevant jurisdiction.

We've tried it the other way; if the current situation doesn't prove the failure of that system to you, I can't help you.

A term of office should be seen as a prison term, and it should require armed guards to round up the winners and force them to enter office, with a desperate plea for parole a regular feature for those condemned to embark upon it.

Salaries should also mandatorily be set by voter initiative, and raised or lowered at every election, according to strict popular vote, with all salaries down to $0/yr being allowed. Make it multiple choice, with increments of 10% possible, from 0-110. Thus in ten chances out of twelve they'd get a pay cut every election, and the plurality vote prevails. It'd be a real shame if they had to earn regular wages to make ends meet, and only conduct governmental business on their days off, with zero special perks and privileges, wouldn't it? Anyone who got rich in government would be subject to automatic proctological levels of audit and investigation, with non-negotiable mandatory 10-year prison terms for any corruption conviction.

The era of government employment being the Full Employment For Retards Act never should have gotten off the ground. As it is, it's time to shoot it down, pour gasoline on the fire from the crash, and then go after their families with pitchforks and torches, pour encourager les autres.

Even a successful stint in government should be viewed as a prison record, a conviction for prostitution, or a child molestation charge, and the guilty treated accordingly for at least a decade after their return to private life.

Everyone is entitled to a political opinion, but anyone who seeks office should be regarded with the sort of disdain and suspicion one usually reserves for crack whores and used car salesmen, and politicians have every character defect of both those fields of endeavor.

Voting: In-Person, Election Day, ONLY

h/t Borepatch

 

Wisdom From 1983

The only relevant question is whether the Russian high command is as bright as Hollyweird screenwriters from the Age Of Rampant Cocaine, and whether they can learn as fast as Joshua did.

Pop Quiz

This embiggens. [Hint: It's NOT All Of The Above]

 

Biff Bashed

Just like Biff, Putin never saw it coming.

10K dead, 15K wounded, 5K POW/defected, as the Ukrainian Debacle enters Week Five.

Quite the box score for four weeks of blundering in the mud.

Putin's invasion forces have literally been decimated there. They've lost something close to 10% of the armored might of Russia in less than a month, and now they're getting pushed off of ground that had previously been secured by them.

For the attention-challenged, about six weeks before this Ukrainian disasterpiece, Putin had to send 250K troops to Kazakhstan to put down violent riots and open revolt there. They can't leave now without risking a two-front war.

All tolled, Putin's missing 35-55% of his entire armed forces, either destroyed or tied up, and taking troops from elsewhere risks similar risings in Georgia, Chechnya, and elsewhere, not to mention Russian borders at risk with opportunistic neighbors, including China, and staving off a coup in Moscow itself.

On paper, Russia's Biff Tannen army outnumbered Ukraine's George McFly forces 5 to 1 in combat power at the outset of this invasion. But Putin could only spare an attack force barely sufficient for a 2:1 advantage, when normal combat calculus is that an attacker needs 3:1, 5:1, or more in order to prevail. And so they haven't. And then we found out how untrained, unprepared, unprofessional, incompetent, and simply outright awful the Russian Army is at combat in 2022. How the mighty have fallen. And in their thousands.

UPDATE: Russia brags about shiny new ship unloading fresh war material at a Black Sea port. So Ukraine promptly blows it the hell up.

All the Russians have actually accomplished is to threaten to move Putin up to the medal-round in killing civilians, nearing parity with Castro, and then moving up on 4th-place Pol Pot. Whether he gets to bronze depends on whether or not he skips straight to the WMD phase once his demoralized and dreadful conventional forces are completely exhausted.

The only question remaining is whether Ukraine will continue to be resupplied with Javelins, Stingers, etc., sufficient to maintain this level of combat performance until Russia finally throws in the towel.

If they do, Russia stalls, and falters.

If they cannot do so, Russia eventually prevails by sheer weight.

For about 5 seconds. And then has to conduct an endless occupation against 100 times more fighters than the mujahideen ever mustered against the Russians in Afghanistan, but this time, against a near-peer adversary with a permanently seething hatred of all things Russian.

And every minute this continues, Russia appears militarily weaker by the minute to every other country on the planet, and their 12th place Brazil-sized economy shrinks by half, to one closer to 22nd place Taiwan's.

Unrest grows as well in the Russian military, which has lost more generals in the last 4 weeks than the US Army has lost in total since 1965. (The biiger problem is not the generals Ukraine has whacked; it's that they've identified the ones who most resemble Larry, Curly, and Moe, and have left them completely unharmed and unmolested, and free to carry out their cunning plans to the limit of their abilities. The Moscow citizenry is none too pleased either. Demonstrations recur, and someone today dropped off a gift of gasoline at Putin's Kremlin residence, in the handy 750-ml flaming wine bottle party package.

This does not bespeak a Russian victory parade any time soon, and the only group destined to suffer higher casualties than Russian troops attacking Kiev are likely to be Putin's food tasters.

"Happy Oz"

 h/t CTH

The Little Things

 h/t Wilder

This Is Why They're Called "Bullet Magnets"

 

A piece of drone video ostensibly from Ukrainian forces in or around Mariupol. Date unknown.

Spoiler alert: GRAPHIC. And things don't go well for the Russian tank crew.

0:08-0:15 Ivan Tankovich tooling around Mariupol. (I leave it for armor aficionados to ID it as a T-whatever.)

0:16 First round hits them in the rear (engine) compartment. Not any kind of a kill, but they stop in a moment or two. How bad an idea this is becomes apparent momentarily.

0:20 Second impact, again in the left rear half of the tank. But still not a kill, as they are able to reverse briefly, and the turret slews left looking for something to shoot back at. But they're still in the fight, for a moment. They just don't know where or with who. UPDATE: As noted in Comments, backing up reveals that their left tread is no longer a continuous thing, and self deploys off the road wheels as they reverse. They're now a mobility kill: Can shoot? Yes; Drive? No. Bad juju for tankers, as a general rule, esp. under fire. {cf. sitting duck}

0:38 Third hit, this time on the right main turret/turret ring. This is when shit gets real. You know this for two reasons: You can see a flash of flame from the loader's hatch to the left of the top turret. You also see smoke evacuate out the muzzle of the main gun. That last round penetrated into the crew compartment, hard enough to go off inside, and blow the gasses through the open breech and out the barrel. The commander (sitting on the impact side) is probably splattered on the inside of the turret and his co-workers at this point.

0:43 Either the loader (unless they have an autoloader) or the gunner opens the loader's hatch on the right side of the tank. Someone (or someones) in the turret are still alive, and trying to GTFO.

0:45 The driver, in front of the turret on the hull, makes the same executive decision: Abandon tank. The tank is dead.

0:48 Coup-de-grace: Final hit, to the rear turret bustle. This is where the tank's main gun ammo is stowed. All that rapidly billowing smoke is probably the propellant and/or warhead on at least one round brewing up. Which is kinda bad for anyone who was in the main turret compartment. As gravity will make apparent in a few seconds. You can see several things blown upward out of frame.

0:59 The driver, who successfully un-assed his little coffin up front before the last blast inside, can be seen trying to flip and flop his way off the front of the hull. He makes it to the street, shaken, but still functional, and tries to depart at bottom center to the side of the road. The body of the gunner is seen on the ground by the turn arrow to the left of the tank. He's dead, to a 99% certainty.

1:04 Another round (#5) impacts about 10m from the driver on the street.

1:14 When the smoke clears, the driver is down on his belly at center bottom, possibly/probably not only shaken, but now almost certainly pretty fucked up by shrapnel from the street impact. He can be seen trying to side crawl along to keep moving away from his dead tank as the view shifts downward, for the next few seconds.

1:26 [SQEAMISH ALERT] What lands on the road near the double center line behind the tank is the head, torso, and various other body parts of probably the tank commander (whoever was in the other open hatch when that last explosion hit), which the explosion launched upwards like a rocket, and those bits have now returned earthward to land in the middle of the road. This is what happens to people who take a second too long getting out of a metal turret, while standing in a steel ring, which suddenly becomes a body-torpedo launching orifice. Or are already sitting in their seat, already KIA.The ground impact does no important damage, because the poor SOB was dead on launch from the explosion inside the tank compartment. Probably even before that. What hits the road is just the leftover meatsuit pieces that weren't obliterated by the blast. The driver, wounded and slithering away, probably never even notices his crewmate's unceremonious landing.

I have no idea if that tank was hit with main gun rounds, AT rockets, or both. But that tank, and most if not all of the crew, are now ex-everything. This kind of stuff is why Putin's forces have lost probably 10% of the entire armored strength of the Russian Army in a bit over three weeks; it's also why his forces are trying to hang around outside of towns, and shelling the occupants to death in the rubble: fewer Russian losses.

One Russian tank totally dead, and 3-4 tank crewman kicked their air addiction, and are  KIA, on the spot. For 5 rounds expended.

Solo tanks, unsupported by infantry, are a good way to get bushwhackwed like that, and combat with high explosives just doesn't give a shit.

Murphy's Rules Of Combat:

Armored vehicles are bullet magnets: a moving foxhole that draws attention.

Try to look unimportant; the enemy may be low on ammunition.

Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. When in doubt, empty the magazine.

Sunday Music: 99 Luftballoons

Auf Deutsch.

Ach! Diese lederhose!

Oder Englisch. 

Fresh and ubiquitous in 1983, Overtaken By Events by 1989, and dragged back into relevancy now, kicking and screaming, by morons and lunatics on both sides who don't remember what kind of fire they're playing with. Too spot on?
 

What YOU'RE Not Looking At When You Think You're Being Smart

 

Herschel on undercurrents.

RTWT.

Then read the links. All of them.

Twice.

Money quotes:

Your rulers have sold you down the river, boy.  Sold you down the river, boy.  Sold you down the river.

This war is being fought over energy, no matter what the other pretexts are.

Electricity is going to get a lot more expensive.  A lot.  Prepare now, and blame your rulers.

And if this applies: 

Get Putin's junk out of your mouth. 

He's not your savior either, and never was.

Hershel's comments, and David Codrea's , on why you should be cheering Ukraine on for 2A grounds alone, are something a lot of the louder commenters should have known without being dragged to it, kicking and screaming.

There will be a pop quiz on that material presently. Grading will be pass/fail.

One Frame Movies

 h/t Daily Timewaster

Карл шутки

Russian Army Live Comm Feed

 

Only Two Weeks To Flatten Kiev

Yes, the Russian Army has Carl jokes too. 

Russia's having a really bad month in Ukraine. So sad for the Butthurt Brigade, but only half-wits would still try to pretend otherwise at this point. Rooting for Russia to win this war is like being a Cubs fan. All that's missing is play-by-play from Bob Uecker, reprising Major League instead of the Brewers.

On D+23, they still haven't made the 50 miles from Belarus to Kyiv, and still haven't cut that city off. [Hint: On D+26, we'd taken over the entirety of Iraq, with less than half the troops Russia sent into Ukraine. But to be fair, unlike the Iraqis, the Ukes aren't walking home in their underwear the first time they heard a bullet crack overhead.]

Ivan set out with something like 250,000 troops, against Ukraine's 200,000. Nominal basic attack math says you need 3:1 superiority to achieve victory. So this was already an iffy proposition from the get-go.

But Ivan couldn't spare more units, equipment, troops, etc., because unlike 1980 or so, he's only got a fraction of former Soviet Army strength to spare, and there's that interminable border with China, plus keeping order in all the -stans, plus the border with NATO, and then keeping a coup from happening, which makes Russia look more like a banana republic than most banana republics.

Shock and surprise got Russia 90% of their present gains, in about a day, and the next 22 days have gotten them the other 10%.And shocker, but it turns out that after 80 years of Soviet rule, Putin's invasion did more to unite Ukraine than Hitler and Stalin combined.

The Russians have, on paper, an overwhelming advantage on the Ukrainian armed forces, in planes, tanks, men, etc. But three weeks in, and no sign of victory, or anything close. Just endless days of more videos showing their aircraft going down in flames, their tanks and APCs and supply columns going up in smoke, and Putin wondering what the hell happened to the quick military victory he was evidently promised by a cadre of yes-men, with more medals on their chests than the entire Boy Scouts and the Ugandan Army combined, despite never having won an actual war since 1945.

Putin's losing generals by the day, mostly in combat (to their credit) so far, but reportedly now, a couple may be (or have been) lost to the Kremlin chopping block. He's using up hard-to-replace munitions at a prodigious rate, and yet Zelenskyy remains in charge of his country and its forces, broadcasting live to the US government, and getting a standing ovation from the entire Congress, and promises of another 2000 Javelins, and 800 Stingers. That's another 1800 Russian tanks and APCs that will be blown to hell, and another several air wings lost in combat, based purely on performance in theater, to date.

Putin's troops get shot for cowardice if they retreat, shot by Ukrainians if they advance, and have reverted to the age-long Russian tactic of looting just to get daily food to eat.

So at what point does Putin 

a) quit shelling cities, and attempt to simply regroup, and solidify his gains? (As if Ukraine will sit still for this);

b) say "Ah, fuck it!", withdraw entirely, declare the lesson learned, and worry about a firing squad retirement party;

c) decide the lemon is worth the squeeze, and start deploying either chemical and/or nuclear weapons to secure that elusive "W" (which would probably trigger taking on NATO head-to-head, starting with massive air strikes to wipe out his entire invasion force within the first 24 hours, with the entire nuclear triad in the on-deck circle if his own generals don't stick his head on a pole and wave it in surrender)?

That's the open question at this point.

If he becomes frustrated and unhinged enough to pop WMDs, NATO, having wisely and mightily resisted any idiotic opportunity for direct conflict, would probably find itself unable to do so any longer.

Then we find out if his generals are more willing to see Moscow and the whole world burn in a nuclear holocaust, or simply shoot their sonofabitch in the head, and call it good.

You got bunker?

From Comments elsewhere, a couple of videos worth watching:

One

 Two

The Dictator Trap

 

This Is What Passes For Russian Fair-Mindedness

 

Moscow is calling for the return of its historic settlements in Alaska and California, demanding the US hand over the former settlements, as Russia continues displaying signs of increasing bullishness regarding the prospect of total victory in Ukraine.

A member of Putin's parliament in Moscow outlined the plan for reclaiming the settlements in Alaska and California, claiming they will be due after the “demilitarization” of Ukraine is complete.

Moscow’s TV pundits and show hosts have also begun endorsing the idea of publicly hanging Ukrainians who are standing against Russia — something the Kremlin has reportedly already mulled.

Those of you out there still slurping chocolate yogurt straight from the tap in Putin's ass, feel free to explain how reasonable this sounds to you, and why we should give it a fair hearing, in Comments.

Then explain to the class how we are the ones seeking to escalate this conflict.

Meanwhile, things are going so well for Russia, Putin reportedly did a mass 1000-person replacement of his personal staff, and now uses food tasters for all his meals.

But of course, no one would ever poison a Russian leader.

This Was A Catered Affair

For the unfortunate and unimaginative Common Core grad folks who keep coming here and catcalling the reports out of Ukraine, we yet again point out:

Just because Puton (not a typo) is exactly the genocidal and megalomaniacal murderous war-criminal dictator any student of Russia for five minutes would expect him to be, doesn't contradict a few immutable facts:

This war was aided, abetted, chivvied, and ginned up, wholesale, by every effort of this illegitimate administration, on purpose, and specifically because

* it drops a thermobaric media bomb on all other news, ON PURPOSE, sucking all the light and oxygen out of the room, and burying such wee stories as

* Emperor Poopypants' approval rating, currently lower than whale shit at the bottom of the Marianas Trench, and last seen screwing itself toward the earth's core, in a symbiotic incongruency with spiraling inflation and gas prices, and the resultant and inevitable unemployment just over the horizon, headed for space like a rocket launch;

* Shrillary & Co., including pretty much the entire Department of Justice, inclusive, conspired to commit treason and sedition against the President of the United States, the republic, and the entire people thereof, exactly as Trump told you, and she should be in the darkest pit of federal SuperMax until the day she is either hung by the neck until dead, or smothered with a pillow when the cameras have an unscheduled power interruption;

* Milley and assorted Obama-clone brassholes have gutted and hopelessly hamstrung the entire U.S. military under an avalanche of actual criminal level of woketardedness from which it would take a decade or more to recover, if it ever can, even if we started right now, leaving us largely indefensible to any threat that doesn't involve launching ICBMs and SLBMs to incinerate the planet;

* an unholy alliance between Big Media and Big Tech colluded and conspired to pirate the entire 2020 federal election in plain sight, with everyone on the planet watching, gaslighting anyone who dared to question the fraudulent insertion of the loser of that race into the Oval Office, despite monumental proof of widespread fraud, and subjecting the republic to a banana republic of monstrous designs;

* that exact fraudulent regime has literally destroyed the US economy, which every second teeters on the precipice above an abyss so deep, with rocks at the bottom so sharp, that the fall will make the so-called "Great" Depression look like a church picnic with no potato salad by comparison, and the deliberately devastated middle class is being pushed to poverty even before that happens, the better to subjugate and control them for all time;

* Never Letting A Crisis Go to Waste, and in fact manufacturing them as necessary, the ongoing perpetual crises inflicted on us by TPTB are being malignly leveraged into a perpetual state of war last seen in Orwell's 1984, (which is probably now the Official Instruction Manual for the DNC) with same used to justify and excuse the most unrelenting collection of far-left whacktard communist bullshit since the Soviet Union was inflicted upon Russia, and just as ham-fistedly;

* which collection of catastrophe is leading inexorably and inevitably to a civil war to rectify, the likes of which no one has seen in this country since 1865, if even then, and that is exactly the outcome TPTB want to bring about.

Nothing happening in Ukraine makes this not true, and in fact, it underlines where things are headed, all while the Damoclean Sword of global thermonuclear war hangs over the heads of civilization, because TPTB needed all these precursors to push their agenda.

The only way out of this, and the only solution to it that will avail, at this point, is going to be rivers of blood, and mountains of skulls, and anyone who thinks otherwise has quite simply lost their fucking mind. Ditto if you think we've been watching events in Ukraine to the exclusion of these immutable realities at home.

If you're not getting ready for that level of calamity, it's going to find you with your pants down sitting on the toilet when it comes knocking.

Don't be That Guy, we beseech you.

To Whom It May Concern:

 We find our YouTube feed the recipient of a number of interesting videos from Tech Ingedients, which we recommend to your perusal as the interest may strike you:

Best Home-Made LRAD:

How To Defeat LRAD:

LRAD Field Test:

Defeating Microwave Weapons:

Homemade Colored Smoke Dischargers (for 4th of July, of course):

Homemade Rocket Engines:

Making a High-powered shortwave transmitter:

And many, many other interesting projects.

Obey all laws.

Remove Shirt Before Ironing.

Cape Does Not Enable Wearer To Fly.

Do Not Taunt Happy Fun Ball.

YMMV.

Enjoy. Knowledge is power.

St. Whatever

 

If you wish to, you might watch an appropriate flick. I probably will, before the day is over.