When literally nothing can shake your belief that Russia is "winning" in Ukraine, you're not advocating a position based on facts and logic, you're proselytizing for a mystery religion.
Russians stacked up for weeks with no notable gains? Russia is winning!
More Russian generals dead in 4 weeks in Ukraine than the US lost in 3 major wars and five smaller conflicts since 1964? Russia is winning!
Video after video of Russian tanks and AFVs getting blown up, captured intact, out of gas, loaded with ammo, even towed into their barns by farmers with tractors? Russia is winning!
Russian soldiers filmed in tears claiming they were lied to, surrendering cold, hungry, and broken, crying to mama, and running over their own brigade commanders with a tank in rage? Russia is winning!
Normally, one has to hold to a belief in globull warmism, systemic racism, or the holiness of diversity to believe this level of bullshit despite all contrary evidence.
Let's talk turkey: Russia's army, on paper, started this conflict a 10:1 favorite. This was literally a modern David-versus-Goliath tale.
Then, Reality kicked in.
1) The Ukrainians rather obviously have united in not wanting to be taken over. This, alone, guarantees Russia can never, ever win, unless they kill every single Ukrainian in existence.
2) The Russians troops of 2022 are not the Russian Soviet Army of 1980. It's a shell of its former self, and the guys that fought in their last combined-forces war are all 90+, or dead. They haven't fought a war like this since 1945, which is to say, the institutional ability to do so is ancient history. They're ill-equipped, under-trained, unmotivated, poorly led, hopelessly inadequate to knocking off a relative pipsqueak army like Ukraine's, and have no chance in hell of taking on 40M partisans for the next 20 years.
3) Their tactics are 1950, but they're running into weapons from 2020. Picture Pickett's Charge at the Somme, and you're starting to get the idea. Unescorted tanks are being turned into corpse canneries. Guided by drone surveillance and targeting, and blown to hell by defenders the fanboys say are "cut off, without any chances". [Murphy's Rules Of Combat: When you're winning, be sure and tell the enemy.]
4) Their secure comms didn't work. Their unsecure comms are jammed. They tried to use cell phones, which were intercepted at first then taken offline. They're now down to wire, and runners.
5) Command and control is getting whacked at a prodigious rate, in a notoriously top-down hierarchical command structure where anyone below the rank of general has to ask permission to do anything. And their generals keep having their heads go all explodey.
Contrary to the fanboys' fervent contentions, this could be disproven. The Russians could start moving through Ukraine like a German blitzkrieg, kicking ass and taking names. They could take Kyiv, roll across the Dnieper, and hurtle all the way to the borders of Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, driving hordes of fleeing ethnic Ukrainians into permanent exile forever. But a month into this, they show no signs of the basic ability to do any of that. Hundreds of MANPADs have kept them from gaining air superiority. Javelins have made their armored attempts almost as obsolete as Polish horse cavalry charging panzers with wooden lances.
In a move straight from my namesake, the currently operative cover story is that they "never really wanted to capture Kyiv", and that sitting bogged down in mud, immobile, and watching their capabilities blown to hell day in and day out for a month was their cunning battle strategery all along. How cleverly facile. Move the goalposts, and declare that you scored a touchdown. Brilliant! Russia hasn't done that so hamfisted-obviously since the '72 Olympics men's basketball finals.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. "The grapes were probably sour anyways."
With maybe 85% of it's raggedy-ass incompetents left, despite running out of fuel, food, and munitions with every shot fired, might Russia still manage to trample Ukraine, by sheer weight of forces? Sure.
And then what?!? Face a population 10 times more fiercely motivated and 500 times bigger than the mujahideen in Afghanistan, last seen kicking the once-mighty Soviet Army the fuck out of that debacle?
Putin can't even keep Russians in Moscow in line over this invasion, even after arresting them in the thousands; he has fuck-all chance of keeping Ukrainians down, even if he captures Zelenskyy and puts him up against a wall on live TV tomorrow. Despite Russia turning Mariupol into a modern-day Hiroshima (minus the radioactivity), no one is running up to the Ukrainian government HQ and throwing molotov cocktails at the walls. OTOH, Putin appears to be getting his advice on charm and leadership from the biographies of Idi Amin and Saddam Hussein. Nothing he has done, is doing, or even could be contemplating, are the things people do who are winning a war.
But the fanboys, reading some Q-tarded version of Russian hagiography, have convinced themselves St. Vladimir is playing 97-dimensional chess here.
If believing that level of delusion helps you get through the day, that's your business, but don't piss yourselves when things don't work out like you thought they would.
Given the raving idiot on our end of the playground, things overall are liable to go from bad to really shitty, whether fast, or more slowly. It would therefore behoove you to stop sniffing glue as you get your own crap in one bag, and start facing up to how things really are right here at home. Crazy people are a luxury in hard times, and the first to be thrown under the bus. Putin isn't your friend, never was, and he isn't coming to save you either.
And whatever the final outcome, Russia turning out to be the most hamstrung, impotent, and incompetent fighting machine since the Judean People's Front is the best news to come out in 2022. The stupid bastard running the show there not realizing that is the worst. It's never pretty when delusional megalomania meets harsh reality, and it's worse for anyone in range of the rage that results from someone putting a Javelin missile right through that castle you were building in the clouds.
And now, he can't have heart-to-heart chats with Obozo, nor even go to Pedo Island to relax and decompress.
And Czar Vladimir wept, because there were no more worlds his paper army could conquer.
So stop gargling Putin's junk, and start learning lessons from the side you hate to admit is stacking them up.
Because when Spicy Time starts here, which side d'ya think you're going to be on...??
Leviathan's? Or the guys trying to bring the beast down?
Best wrap your head around that answer right quick.
Objects in crystal ball are closer than they appear.
They've won unless the US jumps in. Then the whole world loses as the White countries all get nuked and China probably too, so that only Israel and Africa are left.
ReplyDeleteI don't see any way Russia can win this, certainly not long term. That doesn't mean that we can't all lose.
ReplyDeleteThe Kremlin's Point of View:
ReplyDelete=============
=============One month into the Russian special operation in the Ukraine
42988 ViewsMarch 25, 2022 274 Comments
The Beast woke up in pitch darkness
And the price was named to God.
Everybody has caved in – even our brothers in Christ,
Everything has caved in – but not my country.
(translated lyrics from the song “Donbass is with us”)
First, the official version
First, here is a machine translated summary of events following one month of combat operations as posted by Boris Rozhin (aka Col. Cassad):
1. The offensive of the Russian troops disrupted the plans of the AFU offensive on the DPR and LPR using artillery, missile systems and aviation.
2. On January 22, Russian intelligence intercepted the order of General Balan on the need to complete preparations for offensive actions before February 28, so that the AFU could go on the offensive in March.
3. The operation is progressing according to plan. The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have already been completed.
4. The main priority remains the preservation of civilian lives. Hence the tactics of precision strikes on the military infrastructure and the armed forces of the enemy.
5. The blocking of large cities ensures the shackling of the AFU forces and does not allow the Ukrainian command to transfer reinforcements to the Donbass. The main operation at the moment is in the Donbas. 276 settlements have already been liberated in the DPR and LPR. 93% of the territory of the LPR and 54% of the territory of the DPR have been liberated. The group currently defending in Mariupol has more than 7,000 people.
6. Air supremacy was won by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the first two days of the operation. The organized air defense system, the Ukrainian Air Force and the Ukrainian Navy have virtually ceased to exist.
7. Up to 70% of all military stocks of Ukraine were destroyed as a result of systematic attacks on warehouses. 30 key facilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine were destroyed. 68% of enterprises where military equipment was repaired have already been destroyed. At the same time, since the beginning of the Special Military Operation, the Ukrainian army has already destroyed 127 bridges.
8. All the organized reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been put into operation, there are no new ones. Hence the bet on the mobilization of the untrained contingent. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, 6595 foreign mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine.
9. Total losses of the AFU during the month of operation. About 14,000 killed and about 16,000 wounded (the total losses of the AFU group in the Donbas account for 26% of the personnel). Of the 2,416 combat-ready tanks and Armored Fighting Vehicles on February 24, 1,587 were destroyed in a month. 112 out of 152 military aircraft were destroyed, 75 out of 149 helicopters, 35 out of 36 Bayraktar TB2 drones were destroyed. Out of 180 S-300 and Buk M1 – 148, out of 300 radars for various purposes – 117.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will promptly respond to any attempts to close the airspace of Ukraine for the Russian Aerospace Forces.
10. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, at least 10 Ukrainian sea mines are now drifting uncontrollably in the Black Sea, posing a threat to navigation.
11. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation handed over captured weapons to the DPR and LPR. Among other things, 113 tanks and 138 ATGM “Javelin” were transferred.
More than 23,000 applications have been received from citizens of 37 states wishing to fight for the DPR and LPR. There are also a lot of such applications from Russian citizens.
12. Official losses since the beginning of ITS. Killed – 1351. Wounded – 3825.
======
======
Not my circus. Not my monkees.
Aesop - Once again you don't know what the fuck you're talking about - just stop already and get a clue. Russian forces have bottled up Ukraine forces around Kiev - they don't want to take the city and all the useless mouths.
ReplyDeleteMariupol is getting mopped up by the Chechens.
The 60k troops west of the Donbass will be encircled soon - and they are getting written down every day. THIS is the most important thing that is happening. The best trained and armed part of the Ukraine army is stuck - their fuel reserves were destroyed several weeks ago. They will surrender or be destroyed. It's just amazing how you can be wrong so many times and keep writing this shit - and I'm no Russia/Putin fanboy.
If Biden's handlers and Soros want Russia to lose , then I want them to win. - Thomas Rosser
Who exactly will be airlifting DRAGONS and STINGERS to us? That's the only reason the Ukrainians are able to "stack" Russian tanks, BMPs and attack helicopters. Those weapons and probably a sh!tload of special forces guys (from every NATO country) running around Ukraine dressed in Ukrainian Army uniforms and ambushing Russians every time they try to mount a ground attack. Because it ain't the grannies and teenage kids you saw on Facebook, Twitter or TV who were "practicing" with cardboard cutouts of AKs doing that damage--and the Ukrainian Army? Up until a Vlad decided to roll his tanks in...they were being trained on basic infantry tactics and basic first aid by the friggin' Canadians--who don't have any of those weapons mentioned in their Regular Army arsenal.
ReplyDeleteThe utter historical ignorance of the Neo-Tankies is showing. They've fallen for the old delusion that a Strong Man, a Dictator (allied to their beliefs, of course) is somehow more efficient at governing than any messy democratic government.
ReplyDeleteThe historical truth is that they all suck at it. Eventually they end up destroying their own countries- either imminently like Hitler, or a few generations later like Stalin.
But their incel domination fantasies won't let them acknowledge that. So they genuflect at every like minded tyrant that comes along.
I thought this post by David Cole was interesting, particularly the last part where he discusses the Putin worship by some alleged conservatives:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.takimag.com/article/john-wayne-vs-cat-ladies-spoiler-wayne-loses/
While I think that Vladdie was right in banning Fecesbook from Russia, I'm not supporting his actions WRT the Ukraine, and I've been very disappointed with most of the writers over at Gab who think that Putin walks on water.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/propaganda-does-not-change-the-war-the-ukraine-is-still-losing.html#more
ReplyDeleteI've got no horse in the race. Except, perhaps, truth.
I'm curious if our own armed forces are going to learn and internalize the lessons the Ukrainians are teaching the Russians.
ReplyDeleteAny honest military theorists are going to be digesting this and spitting out new concepts of war for decades off this one.
Unfortunately, it seems to me that Putin is committed, and cannot back down. If he does, Russia ceases to exist, and becomes another cog in the Zog. If he does not, the US will eventually pound him into oblivion. He is 'fully aware' of the situation, and 'all necessary decisions' have been made. That means nukes on us, if the US keeps pushing. It's only a matter of time as these two monsters battle to the death. Who will survive? is Putin's existential gamble.
ReplyDeleteIf I were XI, Mongolia and the More than one-half of Russia's hard rock gold resources occur in the Maiskoye, Natalkinskoe, Nezhdaninskoe, Olimpiada, and the Sukhoi Log deposits in Siberia and in the Russian Far East.
ReplyDeleteHere I come
Firstly, it appears that the era of the main battle tank is kaput, it going the way of the Battleship, ATGM technology has evolved so that the occupants are basically spam in a can.
ReplyDeleteSecondly, at this point why do we need NATO, at least what is the reason that the US is in it? Because if it's to beat back a Russian attack on Europe, that's pretty obviously not a threat. So what's the primary mission of the alliance at this point?
However while it is true that the Russians can't win, it's also true that they can't lose. That is the west can't do, as Zhou Biden said he wants, engage in Regime Change. Russia isn't Iraq or Libya. It.has a boat load of nukes, and thanks to the Clintons, hypersonic missile technology.
Putin knows ful well that Regime Change in Russia means he ends up on a slab in the morgue.
If Zhou Biden was.actually trying to egg Putin into using his nukes,.would he be doing anything different?
"Javelins have made their armored attempts almost as obsolete as Polish horse cavalry charging panzers with wooden lances."
ReplyDeleteMaybe Putin should have looked into renting himself some Winged Hussars.
Russian soldiers filmed in tears claiming they were lied to, surrendering cold, hungry, and broken, crying to mama, and running over their own brigade commanders with a tank in rage? Russia is winning!
ReplyDeleteYour best evidence is a literal warcrime by Ukraine against russia? Do you ever stop to consider you might be the baddie?
Russia doesn't have air superiority... But Ukraine wants a no fly zone. Face it, you only ask for others to put in a NFZ when the enemy has not just air superiority, but air supremecy.
You want to see Russia blitz... When blitzes are military failures, even in iraq, even in the original German.
You need to step back, take a deep breath, and consider that Ukraine is a puppet of washington, Washington is run by idiots, that Ukraine is fucked because Washington is calling the shots, and the shots are losers just like korea/nam/iraq/afghanistan/Syria. We don't win wars, and our allies pay for our defeat.
Have the fanboys looked into his eyes? Remember GW back in 2001:
ReplyDelete"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul."
Maybe some Russian doctor will substitute fentanyl for prednisone when he gets his next shot for the colon cancer pain.
I know you don't publish comments contrary to your rants. A Lvov fuel depot was hit today by a RUS missile strike and even the propagandists of CNN covered it. A huge military in Kiev was hit two days ago. You are really deluded.
ReplyDeletePersonally I would love it if both sides would lose. They probably will, but not before Brandon kicks off the festivities. I see five benefits to war with Russia:
ReplyDelete* Distracts from the disasters unfolding domestically in the US.
* Gins up war fever to gain favorable approval for being tough and gets more votes in the midterms.
* Keeps the septic tank of corruption that is Ukraine (and elsewhere) from being uncovered.
* Makes the purveyors of the depopulation agenda smile, not if, but when nukes get unleashed.
* Rings in the Great Reset and cements it into place here in America and the world over.
What could go wrong?
Here's an idea: instead of removing Pootie-Poot and Hero-Z, let's stay home and remove the resident and his gang, then pop a cold one and call it a day.
Best comment. Lets clean up our front porch before we start worrying about someone else's crap. I agree, all part of the plan.
DeleteA modern version of the 30 years war is underway. Don't feel the rah rah for either "side". Looking to me like everyone loses and gets very hungry soon. Might be some fun and entertainment had cracking open the elites bunkers though...
ReplyDeleteDid you happen to catch Poopypants' speech? In a very rare moment of weakness, I listened. To the whole enchilada. There really was nothing of note until the essence of "regime change" was just... mentioned. That was breathtaking as it took the focus of support to Ukraine and NATO unity, shifted it to an external threat to Putin and Russia. Breathtakingly stupid comment to make, and of course all the Lefties I know are squawking "gaffe, gaffe". At his level and with these tensions, there is no gaffe that is forgivable. Morons, all.
ReplyDeleteTheater vs. Goals. Russia has a monopoly on natural gas to Europe via the Baltic pipelines that could by trashed by the development of gas reserves in eastern Ukraine and in the waters around the Crimea or, theoretically, by a pipeline through the Ukraine from the Mid-East. Russia has those threats neutralized and no one will go to war to evict Russia from the Ukrainian coast or the Crimea. Putin didn't get a hero's parade through Kieb, but so what? He has won the gas monopoly prize with a troop of boy scouts from Summer camp. His precision toys work about 50% of the time but he is still the biggest threat to Europe. The Russian military has been cut down to size by the ex-KGB Colonelb.
ReplyDeleteHe never intended to get all of the Ukraine. That is why the US only evacuated their swamp creatures as far as L'vov in the west. That was the up-front "deal". No one in Europe, or anywhere, will trustb the US again. The Russian land bridge to Moldavia gives Putin all he needs.
In other words, he won.
Russia can't lose....unless they decide to lose...or someone else gets involved. The question isn't can they win.
ReplyDeleteThe question is are they willing to pay the price required to win. And that doesn't even factor in what happens after
they win. An "occupation" is a whole nother ball of knots. They certainly aren't displaying any real competence but
as Uncle Joe observed 'quantity has a quality of it's own' and the Russian army probably has the quantity to outlast
the Ukrainians. Again....at a massive cost. And what that cost will do for Putin in Moscow is also going to be a future
issue. So yes....if Russia truly wants to win they can. But they certainly aren't going to do so quickly, cheaply or easily. And it will almost certainly be a pyrrhic victory.
Well....to be fair one should expect a series of drawbacks we you don't start of a war by decimating the critical infrastructure and civilian areas by massive bombing and missile strikes. Think American shock and awe. No real significant naval assets being used nor ballistic missiles. The Russians took it to the ground game fast by Western standards, which is to say they knowingly took the harder road. This is of course by design...save the goodies for uninvited guest like the Americans or Nato. Let's be clear here, Ukr could have been wiped clear and irradiated faster than the news of which could spread. Regardless of how long this takes unless there are party crashers the nuclear superpower will meetx its goals. Which is should be said it not occupation. The major goal has already been reached. No Nato in Ukr. Just like no Soviet missiles in Cuba i.e. on the American border.
ReplyDelete>Not my circus. Not my monkees.
ReplyDeleteThat's what YOU think.
The moment the Russians finish up with their "declare victory and GTFO" move, Ukraine is going to join the EU (guaranteed) and NATO (very probable). Then it IS your circus.
Even if they don't join NATO officially, joining the EU - and the associated EU military reorgs that's taken a sudden high priority all over the place - will mean that in any future Russian move, NATO will be involved, because an attack on Ukraine will mean an EU-military response which will mean Russian moves against EU bases that are on NATO territory. You're involved whether you like it or not.
The only way to disassociate from this is to cut all ties with Europe, completely. Which might be no bad thing, but sudden power vaccuums aren't safe or predictable.
And oddly enough, I'm finding in myself a Strange New Respect for Biden. Being the craziest guy in the room has a certain advantage when nukes are involved. Putin was betting we'd all think he was crazy enough to Poosh Da Bhuttan. But now he's up against someone who is WAY more unpredictable, for medically verifiable reasons, and with a largely faceless and unknown crew of puppeteers behind him. Figuring out who will make what decisions under what circumstances is, in these conditions, impossible. And given Biden's "gaffes" - aka, speaking the truth in a political context - the situation is highly risky and unpredictable.
I wouldn't have chosen this path - Trump's straightforward "I'll hit Moscow. Those golden domes? Gone." - gets the job done much more effectively - but this can work.
Hahahahahaha! This is pure gold. You're going down in flames bud. Pretty fun to watch I might add. You and Bracken are comedy central these days. Bracken is trying to stay out of sight with his proxy boy seamstress blogger though. But not you. You just keep the hits coming.
ReplyDeleteKeep it up dude. The more you blab on about this shit the better it will be later for everyone. Can't wait to hit the rewind button one day soon.
ALCON,
ReplyDeleteYour scorching butthurt is noted, but what you bring in enthusiasm, you lack in substance or sourcing. Gainsaying without anything to back it up is what you do when you're talking out of your ass. Show us the proof that the mighty Russian Army isn't bogged down in place after a month.
If they were anything close to what you imagine, this should have been decisively over three weeks ago. You've got nothing, you bring nothing, and you think you can turn up the volume despite having zero evidence to back your fervent wishes. repeated for emphasis: Putin's ass is not a chocolate yogurt dispenser. Unclamp, and get some perspective, then try another whack at this.
By the numbers:
@jorgen,
Define "won". They're an international pariah, they've destroyed 10-15% of their combat capability (and it isn't growing back again), they've pulled their own pants down in front of all their enemies (and that includes China), and they're burning up stocks of war materiel they can't replace anytime soon. You can chop your own leg off to eat when you're starving too, but you can only pull that trick twice.
@GVDL,
Not my circus nor my monkeys either, but things are what they are.
I am reminded of Jim Broadbent's response in The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe, knowing full well (as later revealed) which child is telling enormous whoppers: "And Edwin's usually the more truthful one, is he?"
@Anon 4:43
The Russians hit a fuel depot. This is notable because it marks one of the few times they've managed to hit an actual military target, rather than a hospital, school, theater, or apartment building. What it doesn't do is get them to victory any faster.
There are over 30K comments on this blog. Quite a goodly number are contrary. I have no problem with disagreement, as long as you bring your argument, and back it up. I've yet to see the evidence of Russia's inexorable success; whereas evidence of their manifest failure to function in Ukraine is like finding leaves in a forest.
So obviously, you're wrong about what I'll post, and you can't draw a line from Fact A to Conclusion Z. You might want to work on that.
@edlfry,
Russia's "limited" aims were to send a quarter-million troops to freeze, and die as cannon fodder, in an arc circumscribing half the country. If they withdraw at this point, it'll be with their tail firmly between their legs, and gravely injured. With what they've done, both to Ukraine and themselves, at this point anything but absolute unimpeded conquest of the entire country is a massive failure for them.
(cont.)
(cont.)
ReplyDelete@Mike,
"What profiteth a man, if he gain the whole Euro-gas monopoly, but lose the whole world?" - Mark 8:36
@Anon 10:48
Assumes facts not in evidence. Five minutes after Putin's gone, NATO moves in, precisely because of Putin's invasion. He just validated every reason for that response the minute he went to invasion rather than negotiation, and proved his promises are worthless as well. He's set on fire every shred of credibility and trust there might have been for Russia, and set relations with the rest of the world back 50 years or more, only to have the cake he wanted explode in his own face. This is an idiot, playing catch by himself with a live grenade, and the pin pulled.
@Hedge,
Anything but.
Hit the rewind button all you want. Fortunes change in war regularly. The odds lie with Russia. That has nothing to do with how monumentally they've cocked up this operation, which you can't even gainsay properly. Being more literate (only just) than some of your fellows, you've nonetheless forgotten the cardinal rule of counter-argument: Show your work. You and the fanboys have got nothing, and your only defense is to claim the lack of any evidence for Russian victory is proof that they're playing 97-dimensional chess and running up the scoreboard. Which seems to be true in all your minds, and everywhere else. except in plain sight. Damn us all for believing our lying eyes!
But In Real Life, one actual touchdown is worth more than 100 imaginary ones that only the cool people can see. Bagdad Bob's vaudeville routine has been done to death. Get some proof for your side, or get a better schtick.
@Phelps,
ReplyDeleteCalling anything Ukraine has done a a "war crime" in light of Russia literally shelling the shit out of entire cities full of people is like giving out speeding tickets at the Indianapolis 500.
As to Russian "air superiority" or "air supremacy", Mr. Stinger would like a word with you. "You keep using those words; I do not think they mean what you think they mean."
"blitzes are military failures..." Norway, Denmark, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Greece would like a little chat.
"Ukraine is a puppet of Washington"...
Perhaps, formerly. But it's neither here nor there. At the moment, they're simply fighting for their very existence and freedom.
"Washington is run by idiots"...
Well, only since ever.
How this breaks out remains to be seen.
Putin is a maniac.
Biden is a senile moron.
That's not a recipe for a happy outcome for anyone, unless Putin nukes only DC, then steps down, after winning the write-in campaign for US president on both party's ballots in 2024.
Putin could get the full Last Day of Ceausescu treatment on live TV, and Neo-Tankies will still continue to insist that he is like totally winning!
ReplyDeleteAnon 1048 says.... Please point out my facts not in evidence. I noticed your reply was to speculate about Nato Russia relations in the future after Putin. Can I borrow your magic 8 ball? Ad hominem attacks on Putin also does not advance your argument. Fact, Russia has the largest arsenal of nukes. So in fact Ukr could have been hit and gone before the world could have responded. Fact, the lights are still on in Ukr even though the Rus controls more than a few power plants there. They have neither turned them off or blew them up with ballistic missiles fired from Rus territory. Speaking of air superiority, why is Ukr asking for no fly zone,and donation of jets and Stingers if the Rus doesn't have the clear air advantage. If ones idea of controlling the skies consists of mostly manpads I would assume they gave little to no thought of countering strategic bombers (which mostly drops self guided munitions out of range of stingers) or ballistic missiles. Just one mag dump from a sub no more Ukr. They are fighting with one hand tied. Tell me who is currently speaking of Ukr joining Nato, the Ukr President has publicly ruled that out. Thus handing a victory to Rus. Not it just a matter of setting the situation to allow enforcement of the Minsk 2 agreement and the destruction of Ukr military capabilities. Please tell me what exactly happened to the bulk of Ukr navy and airforce? Why does the winning side (in your view) need to beg for help and gear? Do you believe that Rus has committed anything near the bulk of military firepower to this sideshow yet? P.s. Thank you for standing up for your position publicly while still allowing anon comments. Much Respect fellow human
ReplyDelete"If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons."-- Winston Churchill
ReplyDeleteThe fan boys are expressing a similar sentiment; and besides, anyone who throws a monkey wrench like that into these crook's money laundering operation, can't be all bad.
I know exactly what air superiority means. It was achieved when the Ukraine air force ceased to exist as a fighting force about 3 days in. I don't know when air supremacy was achieved, but I know that when Ukraine wants a NFZ, it's because their stinger missiles would be doing more good warming their kasha than being shot at the Russians. If you are still shooting down the enemy's aircraft, you don't ask for a NFZ. You keep shooting them down. You don't throw in the towel when you can still throw punches. A NFZ is throwing in the towel.
ReplyDeleteNorway, Denmark, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Greece would like a little chat.
They won't be chatting in German. Why is that?
At the moment, they're simply fighting for their very existence and freedom.
No, they aren't. They would have that in a few hours if they agreed to turn the Nazis over to the Russians. I doubt the Russians would even insist on disarmament at this point, since it has been substantially achieved anyway.
They aren't surrendering because then Ze (and his buddies) would lose his billions in graft from the US. There is literally no other reason. And even that reason is running out as Ze realizes the US intends to fight to the last Ukrainian.
No blood for Burisma.
How about those Hunter Biden biolab emails, BTW? Do those labs still not exist? How about that COVID suicide jump that you claimed wasn't happening when it was? The credibility wrecking thing isn't that you are so often wrong -- it's that you won't even acknowledge it when the wrongness is obvious and documented.
Who owns Uranium One, that deal that benefited the Clinton Foundation so much?
ReplyDeleteWho provided the Clintons with the Steele Dossier?
Putin is part the Democrats Corruption Fun Party too. Pretending that he's somehow fighting against it is rather foolish.
It is a Military Stalemate. How far has Russia advanced against Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa and other cities? They probably will take Mariopul soon. If they are smart, they will claim the elimination of the AZOV Battalion in Mariopul has accomplished their Anti-Nazi goals, as well as provided a second land bridge to Crimea from Russia. Then call for a cease fire in place.
ReplyDeleteExcept Smoking Joe Biden is having none of this. F. Joe is the one pushing for more escalation. President Pudding Head is telling America's Military they will be in Ukraine. Wrong Way Joey is calling for the death of the head of state of the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
Now the bumbling idiots are talking about a "Humanitarian No-Fly Zone." Worse Poland seems to be leading the new No-Fly push? We do not need an expanded war. Russia cannot fight NATO conventionally, but it can with nukes. Of course both sides lose big-time if nukes fly.
I want peace in Ukraine. I do not want to see any more dead. I want a Free Ukraine without US and EU political families or Russian Oligarchs corruptly stealing from Ukraine.
Ukraine is winning and Zelensky is ready to give up? Grow up
ReplyDelete@Anon 01:35,
ReplyDeleteThe facts not in evidence are
a) Russia "achieving its aims" in Ukraine, or keeping NATO out.
Short of wiping Ukraine off the map, or conquering the country back into Russia (which you think they don't want) they're liable to trigger the exact thing they don't want.
I made no "ad hominem" attacks on Putin. He's the exact object under discussion, and his character and methods are exactly the point at issue.
If Ukraine had been "hit and gone" before the world responded, Putin would be gone within a matter of days, probably in a gigantic fireball. Russian doctrine for using nukes is how you trigger WWIII. They're idiots if they ever try it in practice.
Russia hasn't left the lights on out of altruism. If you scram hot reactors, there are enormous start-up penalties. Meanwhile, what need of power, when entire cities have been gutted of anything that could use it?
Of course Russia has an air advantage, they started the war outnumbering Ukraine 20:1; you ask for an NFZ to stop getting the shit blown out of your cities. This is news where, exactly? Did we establish an NFZ over Iraq because we were losing, or because we could? Russia's abysmal performance, on the ground and in the air, merely underlines the fact that NATO forces would ground them in about an hour, indefinitely, if anyone were foolish enough to set out to do that.
Your concept of warfare is, to put it mildly, mentally delayed. Having nukes does not equal using nukes, which no one who has them has done since 1945. Not us, not France, not Britain, not China, not Russia, not Israel, not India, not Pakistan. Anyone who did would be labelled a rogue state, and hunted to extinction, for sport.
before Putin's invasion, NATO was never going to include Ukraine. Poopypants floated punchbowl turd to gin up the exact war he got, because he needed a distraction. NATO was never going to do something that stupid. But now, the minute they can, they'll admit Ukraine, and move the full force of their charter obligations, and full military backing, right up to the Russian border, because Putin's grasping ambition and military adventurism marks him as a renegade loose cannon, and they'll call his nuclear bluff with a royal flush.
I never identified Ukraine as "the winning side"; I said they've stopped the Russians cold, and are bleeding them whiter by the day. Huuuuuuuge difference.
Russia cannot spare much more to this effort, unless they want two to five other provinces to erupt in rebellion, and unfriendly neighbors to start testing them as well. They're under-militarized and over-committed, by one small country, right on their border.
They're holding a pair of threes, and bluffing, and Ukraine is showing how weak they really are, with the whole world watching.
Putin's shot a hole in worldwide perception of Russian military strength, and it's leaking credibility by the gallon every second. Just as his army is leaking blood.
Phelps,
ReplyDeleteRussia has the advantage in the air. What they don't have is superiority, except on brief raids. They aren't flying anywhere, anytime, unscathed. They can make forays, and hitting anything besides apartment complexes and hospitals seems to tax their +abominably bad targeting skills. Their air advantage has produced no success on the ground, which is the entire point of an air force. they can't take out critical strategic targets, and they can't achieve air-ground synthesis sufficient to capture any objectives. They can simply act like the Seagull Air Force level of skill: fly in, shit all over everything, and fly away. They have no discernible plan, and their only accomplishment is bombing real estate to rubble. that didn't work in Vietnam, it didn't work in Iraq, and it didn't work in Afghanistan, neither when we tried it, nor when they tried it. It won't work here, short of genocide of the entirety of Ukraine. Stopping that genocide is why you ask for an NFZ.
"...They won't be chatting in German. Why is that?..."
Because Hitler fought a needles two-front war, after the blitzkreig attacks had conquered 3/4s of Europe, unassisted. You have disproven the effectiveness of blitzkrieg to a value of 0%. Is Grenada communist? Is Noriega still in charge in Panama? Does Saddam rule Iraq? Why is that?
Blitzkrieg, baby; it's what's on the menu for every successful war since ever. When you grab 'em by the balls, and then shoot them in the face, who gives a fuck about "hearts and minds"?
"turn over the Nazis"
In a country where the last two presidents, including the current one, are Jewish?
Good luck finding all those "nazis". Exactly as in 1939, Ukrainian Nazis are the 21st century Operation Canned Goods: a scape-unicorn, trotted out in a weak attempt to justify a war of national obliteration. Of Poland in 1939, and Ukraine now.
The Ukrainians aren't surrendering because they've seen the tender embrace of Russia many times in the last 5 centuries, and having tasted a bit of freedom for 30 years, want no more of such Russian affection. Pretty much the same reason OJ Simpson won't ever be re-marrying either.
Hunter Biden biolabs still aren't bio warfare labs, nor run by the US government. A key couple of points everyone with a middling IQ seems to want to forget. Labs in Ukraine? Sure. Bio warfare labs?? Not so much. Us dotGov proxy labs?
Unlikely.
Think you can prove otherwise?
Show all work.
You've yet to prove that, nor is any such thing documented. Allegations and wild assumptions aren't proof of anything but an over-active imagination. How'd that work out for people with the Steele dossier?
@Anon 3:19
ReplyDeleteI never said Zelenskyy was "winning" (you could look it up), and Zelenskyy has said nothing whatsoever about "giving up", rather exactly the opposite, day after day. And the average man on the street in Kyiv is even harder core on Russian annihilation than Zelenskyy is.
Reading comprehension score: 0%. FAIL.
Better luck next time.
Maybe sign your posts, instead of anonymous trolling.
Russia has the advantage in the air. What they don't have is superiority, except on brief raids. They aren't flying anywhere, anytime, unscathed. They can make forays, and hitting anything besides apartment complexes and hospitals seems to tax their +abominably bad targeting skills. Their air advantage has produced no success on the ground, which is the entire point of an air force.
ReplyDeleteSo you started this by asking me if I even knew what air superiority means. I, in fact, do. I now ask you the same question.
Air Superiority: That degree of dominance in the air battle of one force over another which permits the conduct of operations by the former and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by the
opposing force.
By your own admission, the Russians have air superiority.
Air Supremacy: That degree of air superiority wherein the opposing air force is incapable of effective interference.
Neither definition depends on what you can do with your air advantage. They have only to do with what the enemy can do to interfere with it, and all the indications are that the Ukrainians are no longer capable of "effective interference", or there would be no need for a NFZ to "stop the genocide." They would stop it themselves.
Hunter Biden biolabs still aren't bio warfare labs, nor run by the US government. A key couple of points everyone with a middling IQ seems to want to forget. Labs in Ukraine? Sure. Bio warfare labs?? Not so much. Us dotGov proxy labs?
ReplyDeleteUnlikely.
Think you can prove otherwise?
Show all work.
They are biosafety level 3 labs (way more than your "hur dur sink and some saop", and into controlled access, positive pressure systems, bio safety cabinets, etc), funded DIRECTLY by the DOD, working with Black & Veatch, whose government work is weapons oriented, and owned by the investment firm where Hunter Biden is a principle.
You're acting like the illegal warcrime bioweapons lab isn't an illegal lab unless there is a flashing neon sign over it that says "ILLEGAL TREATY-BREAKING BIOWEAPON WORK DONE HERE" on the street.
https://nypost.com/2022/03/26/hunter-biden-played-role-in-funding-us-bio-labs-contractor-in-ukraine-e-mails/
https://www.bv.com/industries/governments/mission-critical-facilities
So how do that "air superiority" do in taking the airport outside Kyiv?
ReplyDeleteWhat's that? They still don't possess it? A month later?
Uh, okay.
You keep forgetting that "and its related land, sea, and air forces" part you just quoted.
That means in order to have actual air superiority, you have to be able to do something with it besides simply get in the plane and fly.
Exactly like offense in football, "you use attacks in the air to create and exploit opportunities on the ground". That was a quote from General Vince Lombardi of the Green Bay Packers.
As to "air supremacy" Ukraine is still well-capable of effective interference; that's called Stinger missiles. But that doesn't mean they require the ability to manifest omnipotent interference. The Russian air offensive is hitting minute of city. They're trying to bomb mice into submission, at a cost of multi-million-dollar jets (and irreplaceable pilots) in exchange for missiles costing a fraction of that. And failing, while losing more men, and aircraft, and burning up more finite supplies of ordnance, day after day, for little to no appreciable gain.
The Russians have an air advantage, unquestionably. But they're air oafs. This is an assault by the modern day equivalent of mountain trolls on unicorns. "Hulk Smash!" should be their motto. For entire cities.
Maybe consult John Warden's The Air Campaign, and let me know if the penny drops. Hopefully closer to a worthwhile target than Russian ordnance does.
BL2 labs are not "hur dur soap and water"; you're apparently completely unaware that I was quoting directly from the official published CDC and international classification levels.
ReplyDeleteBL3 is an improvement, but not that spectacular.
Any serious biowarfare would require not just a BL4 lab, but production facilities. So they're not that.
You also clearly either didn't read the NYPost story, or didn't grasp it if you did.
Conflating wild Russian accusations with proof of the existence of bio warfare labs isn't what the story claims.
Maybe read it, and tell me where you see them say that.
Hunter Biden helped secure funding from the US government in US company to for a tiny piece of helping to build a lab or labs in Ukraine. No e-mail proof of even that is forthcoming, just the Post's say-so. No proof that it conducted bio-weapons research.
For anyone.
The total piece of funding Coke-Snorter Biden helped secure, when his daddy was the Veep, was a paltry $307,091. Or, roughly half of what .175 hitter and back-up shortstop Andrew Parrino was paid for sitting on the bench for the Oakland A's. In 2015.
Congrats: You have found the smoking Nerf gun.
What? The illegal bioweapons lab isn't using enough safety protocols? I'm SHOCKED! Next thing you know, you'll be telling me that the Columbian cartels are synthesizing cocaine without proper PPE, non-lab grade reactants and improper paperwork.
ReplyDeleteThe term for bioweapons labs that don't use the requisite safety protocols is abattoir.
ReplyDeleteYou should probably look that up.
And slipshod cartel operations?
Google meth lab explosion, and tally the results.
Own goal! Well-played.
I can keep pointing out the gaping flaws big enough to drive a Russian invasion through in your suggestions all day long.
Your CEP is down to minute-of-North America.
Yeah, you really have to be watching out for meth lab explosions in your cocaine synthesis.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteIf you're simply going to batter your head against a wall, you don't need my help.
The Russain air effort isn't up to the task, unless the task is mindless carpet-bombing genocide of entire cities.
You've put forth proof that Hunter Biden may have had some influence at some level on getting a contract so small you'd need a microscope to find it, as part of a monstrous investment by US companies in building labs in Ukraine, which activity may not have ever even taken place, nor had anything whatsoever to do with illegal activity of any kind, particularly not biowarfare, other than borscht farts in the employee lounge bathroom.
You're trying to prove Central Park's existence solely on the basis of a single squirrel sighting one time, somewhere in Manhattan, once upon a time.
This is George Noury/Alex Jones territory, and I concede your superior familiarity with that ground. Walk tall.
By the end of April, if Ukraine hasn't signed things away at the diplomat's table, I predict a sustained and wide-ranging Ukrainian counterattack making it absolutely clear the Russian forces are cardboard.
ReplyDeleteIf Ukraine DOES sign things away at the diplomat's table - things like Mariupol and all occupied territory north of the Crimean neck and maybe Crimea itself and the option to join whatever military alliance they damn well feel like - I predict Ukrainian unrest and the replacement of the government, and the repudiation of the deal at the earliest possible moment. Because the Ukrainians definitely do not feel like they are losing, and having a proper revenge snatched away right when they thought they were going to get a chance at it is a great way to make everything ten times worse. (See: 1918)
I predict no nuclear detonations whatsoever. Especially given the way things have gone this past month. Putin does not have any problems that can be solved in that manner, the astounding passivity of the USA in this situation has been the best possible demonstration of it, and though he's screwed up in a terribly visible manner he's not generally stupid.
Long term, I predict Russia turning into a larger version of North Korea. China doesn't have the bandwidth or the infrastructure to replace the lost economic ties. Russia can produce snow without western inputs, that's about it.