Only Two Weeks To Flatten Kiev

Yes, the Russian Army has Carl jokes too. 

Russia's having a really bad month in Ukraine. So sad for the Butthurt Brigade, but only half-wits would still try to pretend otherwise at this point. Rooting for Russia to win this war is like being a Cubs fan. All that's missing is play-by-play from Bob Uecker, reprising Major League instead of the Brewers.

On D+23, they still haven't made the 50 miles from Belarus to Kyiv, and still haven't cut that city off. [Hint: On D+26, we'd taken over the entirety of Iraq, with less than half the troops Russia sent into Ukraine. But to be fair, unlike the Iraqis, the Ukes aren't walking home in their underwear the first time they heard a bullet crack overhead.]

Ivan set out with something like 250,000 troops, against Ukraine's 200,000. Nominal basic attack math says you need 3:1 superiority to achieve victory. So this was already an iffy proposition from the get-go.

But Ivan couldn't spare more units, equipment, troops, etc., because unlike 1980 or so, he's only got a fraction of former Soviet Army strength to spare, and there's that interminable border with China, plus keeping order in all the -stans, plus the border with NATO, and then keeping a coup from happening, which makes Russia look more like a banana republic than most banana republics.

Shock and surprise got Russia 90% of their present gains, in about a day, and the next 22 days have gotten them the other 10%.And shocker, but it turns out that after 80 years of Soviet rule, Putin's invasion did more to unite Ukraine than Hitler and Stalin combined.

The Russians have, on paper, an overwhelming advantage on the Ukrainian armed forces, in planes, tanks, men, etc. But three weeks in, and no sign of victory, or anything close. Just endless days of more videos showing their aircraft going down in flames, their tanks and APCs and supply columns going up in smoke, and Putin wondering what the hell happened to the quick military victory he was evidently promised by a cadre of yes-men, with more medals on their chests than the entire Boy Scouts and the Ugandan Army combined, despite never having won an actual war since 1945.

Putin's losing generals by the day, mostly in combat (to their credit) so far, but reportedly now, a couple may be (or have been) lost to the Kremlin chopping block. He's using up hard-to-replace munitions at a prodigious rate, and yet Zelenskyy remains in charge of his country and its forces, broadcasting live to the US government, and getting a standing ovation from the entire Congress, and promises of another 2000 Javelins, and 800 Stingers. That's another 1800 Russian tanks and APCs that will be blown to hell, and another several air wings lost in combat, based purely on performance in theater, to date.

Putin's troops get shot for cowardice if they retreat, shot by Ukrainians if they advance, and have reverted to the age-long Russian tactic of looting just to get daily food to eat.

So at what point does Putin 

a) quit shelling cities, and attempt to simply regroup, and solidify his gains? (As if Ukraine will sit still for this);

b) say "Ah, fuck it!", withdraw entirely, declare the lesson learned, and worry about a firing squad retirement party;

c) decide the lemon is worth the squeeze, and start deploying either chemical and/or nuclear weapons to secure that elusive "W" (which would probably trigger taking on NATO head-to-head, starting with massive air strikes to wipe out his entire invasion force within the first 24 hours, with the entire nuclear triad in the on-deck circle if his own generals don't stick his head on a pole and wave it in surrender)?

That's the open question at this point.

If he becomes frustrated and unhinged enough to pop WMDs, NATO, having wisely and mightily resisted any idiotic opportunity for direct conflict, would probably find itself unable to do so any longer.

Then we find out if his generals are more willing to see Moscow and the whole world burn in a nuclear holocaust, or simply shoot their sonofabitch in the head, and call it good.

You got bunker?

From Comments elsewhere, a couple of videos worth watching:

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