It's been awhile, and we just wanted to give the knee-jerk shit-flinging monkeys something to do before the feces build-up in their cages gets above their eyes.
It isn't like they're going to catch a clue or anything, no matter how gently we suggest they try a more nuanced tack.
Just to be sporting, we'll bet a modest sum at even odds that we can repost this again in 400 more days, with similar or worse performance by Russia's conscript army, if you can find an acceptable neutral party to hold the cash. All you monkeys will have to put your money where your mouth is to play.
31 comments:
“2 weeks to flatten Ukraine.”
Same mantra, different subject matter… both criminal.
On St. Patrick's Day it will all begin to unravel once Putin loses the Presidency of The Russian Federation.
With him out of the way, Crimea by May for the glorious UA. Gotta be what they are holding everything back for, by then they will be running the actual top shelf NATO weapons and have additional EU financial support- the Ukranian gloves will finally come off. Combined with the inevitable full on RF economic collapse due to the heaviest sanctions in history and its game, set, match.
'Ukraine's attack on a Russian air-defense system may point to 'systemic tactical failures' with Russia's air defenses in Crimea, experts say' -- https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-destroying-russia-s400-air-defenses-expose-tactical-failures-experts-2023-9 -- Gee ya think?!
There is also this classic -- https://twitter.com/i/status/1540214406549749766 -- of a RU SAM gone awry. Were I client of a RU defense contractor I might want to look for a refund and a hefty discount on refills.
So Putin begging North Korea for aid isn't indicative of Russia being on the verge of conquering everything?
When ever I want a laugh about Ukrainian actions, I come here.
Still waiting for that 4-D chess move Boss
@Pat,
Whenever I want a laugh about Ukraine, I listen to "Any Day Now™" Part 400, from anywhere.
Russia has now lost more subs to Ukraine than they did to anyone but accidents in 70 years.
Only the US Navy probably sunk more, but nobody's ever talking about those numbers very loudly.
@Randy,
I doubt there's going to be anything revolutionary, from either side.
But right now I'm reading the memoirs of the guy who planned and executed the nuts-and-bolts defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan.
Which sounds an awful lot like a carbon copy of Russia in Ukraine.
Except the Ukrainian invasion is even less organized for Russia than the Afghanistan invasion was, and the current operation is being attempted with available forces overall 1/10th what they were when Russia was allegedly a Cold War military power.
Current events show that we vastly overestimated their capabilities, probably for decades and decades.
See if you can recall a modern army that won all its battles when they were toe-to-toe, and still lost everything.
And the Russians aren't even winning toe-to-toe.
They're just not being defeated very dramatically.
Which makes all the rah-rah with no beef behind it stick out all the more.
When I'm quiet about Ukraine, the Usual Suspects think that means anything beyond "things are going slowly".
But they're going, and Russia isn't gaining any ground.
They're just advancing on Russia at a steady but inexorable rate.
As another commenter pointed out, when you're Russia, going to the Norks to get more ammo, it's desperation because you're out of options and resources, not because you're crushing the opposition soundly.
You were a planner.
You want 4D?
Tell me: Where does Russia go for help next?
Cuba?
Venezuela?
Antifa??
Wow, it's as if Putin meant it when he said that Russia only wanted the Russian bits.
Yeah, Putin feels that way about a lot of other people's countries.
And this time, it's almost like Ukraine meant it when they said they're going after all the Ukrainian bits. Including the ones Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
So far, it's only cost Putin a cruiser, a submarine, most of their amunition, a sizeable chunk of their air farce, 300K troops, and a trillion rubles.
Sooner or later, that adds up to real money.
The Russians sure seem to be shooting a lot of ammo. Guess they must be about to run out, right?
300K? interesting casualty claim, where's it from? What are the Ukrainian neo-nazi regime's casualty numbers?
Wonder how many Leopard and Challenger tanks the west has left to send to be blown up in the Ukraine. Or is the Ukie abortive 'counter offensive' entirely stalled now?
Actually, Russia isn't shooting much of anything now, compared to back when they were burning through hundreds of rounds of artillery a day. They send a few dozen drones over, and the odd missile, but otherwise, they just keep retreating, ever so slowly.
Look around all you like for casualty figures. I'm sure you'll find a number somewhere that suits you.
A neo-nazi regime run by a Jew would be quite the trick.
I'm betting the number of new western tanks will outstrip the number of Russian tanks the Russian army can afford to field and lose, and the T-80s and -90s that do show up keep blowing up just like the T-72s and T-62s did. This isn't much of a tank war, except by casualties. Turns out it's not 1944 any more.
As for stalled, the Ukrainians are certainly not doing 20 and 40km a day, like last fall when Russia was in headlong retreat for three months straight. The Ukrainians just seem to keep liberating towns and villages the Russians leave.
I'm pretty sure they call leaving places you used to own a retreat.
But every day, TASS and RT assure us that Any Day Now™ they'll be marching victoriously into Kiev. They've been saying that every day for 18 months, so they must know something by now, right?
Keep digging in that pile. There's gotta be a pony under there somewhere.
And the Usual Suspects keep saying that Putin is a sooper genius playing 13D chess, that Ukraine is on the brink of defeat(again!), Ukraine is not really gaining ground, Great Britain needs to be attacked for providing weapons to the Ukes, but a merciful St. Vlad is holding off on doing so, hoping that the Brits and the Germans and the Dutch and...will see the error of their ways and return to the Paths of Righteousness as decreed by St. Vlad and his Band of Angels.
I stopped trying to argue with these people several months ago; kudos to our host for being willing to argue with them. I get the comic book magnate, who appears to be as ignorant of history as he is of investing donated funds, but the veterans supporting St. Vlad floor me. Too many of them appear to regard the pronouncements from the Russian MoD as Holy Writ, and I wonder what level of intoxication/LSD consumption is needed to believe, given the recent pronouncement by a leading Russian general about the endemic lying by the Russian leadership:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-15-2023 Second item, Lt. Gen. Gurulev.
Time to go to the Warhammer forums, and get better analysis than I see with far too many of the buffoons masquerading as analysts/commentators these days. I mean, really: neo-Nazi Jews??? Put down the funky postage stamps and Everclear.
Not impressed by either side.
Putin made the mistake of his career by starting this war and ruined his rep as a tough guy and Russia's as a superpower. His balls have proven to be as small as his height.
Zelensky is arrogant and grows tedious. The Ukraine is as corrupt as Russia. The US is hemorrhaging money that could be used here at home instead. Let the Europeans deal with all of it for once. It's their backyard, their circus, their monkeys.
I feel sorry for the regular people in both countries just trying to get by in life in either country. They're hosed.
Bon M said it pretty straight on the overall picture. RU as a future arms supplier is in a canoe without a paddle. Their tech is second shelf compared to western stuff. The RU-UA war might just bury Lenin finally -- quality is better than quantity after all on the modern battlefield.
Bon, where I might disagree is who is corrupt? It was the likes of DiaperMan that got the UA's equivalent of an IG fired for going after the corruption. Like Suron, all roads to corruption lead to Washington DC.
Has the damage to the battleship, the submarine and the landing ship changed the course of the war? The attacks on the Kirsch bridge? The drone attacks on Russian airfields and Moscow office buildings? No, they are just propaganda pieces. You can't win war with propaganda!
The west is losing and badly. Which piece of wonder waffen would you be willing to bet your life on? A Bradley, an Abrams, a Leopard, perhaps the Patriot, surely the mighty titanium M777 won't fail? I know, if our armor won't withstand incompetently led, under equipped and poorly trained and motivated Russian forces we can always employ meat assaults on minefields and entrenched fortifications.
These big show piece attacks are all attempts to goad the Russians into a big response, which the propaganda people can spin to push for more and bigger war. Putin not responding to these "affronts" is combat discipline.
The objective is to neuter dollar dominance. The task at hand is to destabilize Europe while drawing like-minded nations away from the dollar. Everything else is forgetting to drain the swamp because of the alligators.
Imagine if a nat gas shipping terminal went boom just as the ship gets full. That is bigger than Nagasaki! The Russians could just say "Wow, there go the Americans again." But focus on the objective,
It is time to cover the three to one rule. When you point you finger there is one finger pointing out and three point back at you. Something in our inner nature makes us accuse others of our innermost evil or fear. The Russians are not out of ammo, WE ARE! I live within the sound footprint of an Army artillery practice range. For over fifty years the boom boom goes on in the background. It has STOPPED! WE ARE OUT OF AMMO!
Perhaps this would be a time to talk about your favorite sources of military information because I sure don't see the same things as you, and you sound like my friends who watch FOX!
Rethink.
1) The destruction of the Black Sea Fleet isn't just propaganda. It's taken away thousands of square miles of that sea as a Russian playground and missile launching point. It's pushed their ships all the way back to Sevastopol, where they're now being attacked and destroyed at dockside in their homeport. It's shown their ships are highly vulnerable, and unable to defend against missile attacks. It's made any amphibious operation out of the question, which in turn has put any offensive against Odessa off the table permanently. You can't bleed chess pieces indefinitely, and suffer no diminution of capability. Russia's Black Sea failures have been hard and repeated kicks to the crotch.
2) The west isn't in this war. The Ukrainians are. They're still moving forward, despite their military shortcomings and losses. Not backwards. The Russians stopped moving forward anywhere over a year ago. They spent six months and countless lives to level Bakhmut and capture the ash heap, and lost most of it in 6 days. That's a metaphor for their entire operation. They've won a mouthful of ashes, in trade for a substantial amount of their actual ground combat power. Their generals squandered what Putin built over 20 years, in a little over 20 weeks. By 20 months, their military ability will be at or below parity with Ukraine, and stay there forever. That's the mathematics of "never can win".
Your cluebat there should be NATO countries upgrading their stuff, by giving Ukraine 1980s hand-me-downs, while Russia is struggling to refurb their own 1950s level stuff. How'd that kind of match-up work out for Iraq in 1990?
3) Putin's forces can defend moderately well, until they can't. So can anyone else. That's why even incompetent defenders enjoy a minimum 3:1 advantage in any effort. Laying on the mat isn't a strategy, it's simply all they can manage with the forces they can get and the capabilities they can muster.
4) Dollar dominance isn't in jeopardy. And the ruble has cratered. It's now worth less than Mexican pesos, and is headed for Zimbabwean dollar territory. 1 ruble is hovering around 1¢ of value. It peaked in May of 2022 at under 2¢, and the extreme low was a little better than ½¢. Europe is fat and happy, and more united against Russia than at any time since the Berlin Wall went up. Neutral wobblers have joined NATO, which has expanded by another 10% in the last year. So all that grand maneuvering by Putin has totally failed, just as the Russian Army has proven a paper tiger on the battlefield, and NATO bases are being planned right on his previously secure borders, from the Arctic to the Middle East. EPIC FAIL for Russia. A nation 1/4 their strength and 1/10th their size has been taking them to school for a year and a half, and the lessons have been harsh.
5) We've been critically short of ammo to fight a war for 50 years. It's in every annual defense report since 1954, using 1944-45 numbers as the benchmark. This is only news to Baby Ducks; everyone else knew the situation going back half a century or more. And we watched our production capacity shrink to 1930s abilities, and done nothing to stop that for 70 years. But we're not the entire supply point for Ukraine, as Russia keeps finding out. We broke the back of Soviet Russia financially once already in most people's lifetime. Now we're doing it again with the Russian Army, which is 1/10th the starting size of what we faced in 1980.
(cont.)
(cont.)
6) I don't watch TV news at all, and draw nothing from any of the major networks, except the occasional laugh line. There are 500+ sources out there, and teeming hordes of them unaffiliated with either side in this ongoing shitshow.
You should get out more. Anyone can see whatever they want, but they should probably be looking at sources they disagree with more, to balance things out. The truth generally lies between the two extreme opposites.
Come back in 100 more days, and 200, 300, and 400, and let's see how your analysis stacks up against mine.
Ukraine's big danger, which has been true since May 2022, is that they are wholly dependent on the West's teat and largesse, economically and militarily. If that flow ever turns off or gets severely restricted, they get rolled, and turn into the world's largest insurgency. Russia trades Vietnam for Afghanistan or Northern Ireland v2.0. Lose-lose for Putin. Only the speed changes.
1.One cruiser one submarine and one amphibious landing ship, large does not constitute "the fleet." But again, what is the operational effect? Since then Ukraine has really upped the winning and territory taking - why they can smell salt water from there.
2.You say "The west isn't in this war. The Ukrainians are" but you close with "they are wholly dependent on the West's teat and largesse, economically and militarily." Which is it?
3.Russia has stated no goal or preference for large arrow advances and seam to recognize that in the modern era of ISR and precision strike systems that large arrow equals large losses.
4. Dollar dominance is a more fragile reed than many think. The newly enlarged BRICS have committed to reduce the use of dollars in their trade. Saudi Arabia has killed the petrodollar, sure they continue taking dollars, but will now accept other currencies. There are plenty of other alphabet groups out there in the "Global South" and they all fear the dollar and the power it gives the Americans. They just didn't have a choice before now (ask Mr Gaddafi about starting a competing currency.) But it is not necessary to destroy the dollar, it only requires nibbling around the edges. As more and more countries find ways to trade with their own and each others currencies, the dollars they hold can be sold. Hey, it's a good thing the Fed isn't pumping the markets with a flood of the stuff, just as everybody else decides to sell some of their holdings
5."We have been critically short on ammo for fifty years." That is just about exactly how long I have been listening to that boom-boom-boom. So what Happened that is different now that means we are not out of ammo, we just don't practice anymore.
6.Glad to hear it about the mainstream, same for me. I guess now we wait, as my mom said "Time will tell."
I've liberated your graphic and posted it in the one place I can think of where it will cause even more butthurt than here.
@Unknown 2:57P,
1. Those are just the major losses, not the total. And the entire fleet has to stay out of Ukrainian missile strike range, effectively forcing them off the battlespace in perpetuity. That's a geography kill.
2. Tell the class how Russia fought the U.S. in Korea and Vietnam. Detail the units and battles they engaged in. Show your work.
When you fail, stop trying to equate apples to oranges, no matter how much you wish it were so.
3. The bodies of a Soviet airborne division recovered around Kiev last year say otherwise. So does the 100km retreat last fall. Russia hasn't been able to pull off actual combined arms ops since 1945, and it shows. Now they're just fighting WWI tactics, because it's all you can teach people in a two-week boot camp.
4. We're doing a better job of destroying the dollar than Putin ever will, and have been doing so for a century. The fact remains that the ruble is still car wash tokens by contrast, and the Russian economy is totally in the shitter because of Putin's invasion.
5. We're not practicing, because the boom-boom you don't hear is happening 6000 miles away, and instead of being expended for practice, it's killing Russians. Boo frickin' hoo. It isn't hard to figure out how that works. GoogleEarth is your friend.
6. It's now Day 570.
Time is already telling.
That was my entire point: After 400 days of "Any Day Now™" fairytales about Russian military competence, it's probably time for the Putin fanbois to try singing a song a bit more reality-based.
"72 hours" to capture Kiev is now in Week 81.
Propaganda on all sides lies, but calendars are ridiculously accurate.
Aesop,
My "waiting for the 4D chess" comment was my attempt at a snide comment aimed at the folks that keep saying "Any day now Vlad will show you!". But if I could accurately portray my attitude in a short phrase I'd be blogger not an occasional commenter.
Not disagreeing with your original comment or the reply. As you said, when you have to go begging North Korea for ammo...
For anyone who wants some numbers on tanks...
The Soviets and Warsaw Pact combined at the height of their power had about 20,000 tanks combined. Many, probably more than half, stayed with other countries after 1991.
The US has built just shy of 10,000 Abram's tanks over the years. Over time, all have been upgraded to at least the M1A1 standard (120 mm gun, etc). The long term plan has been to keep about 3,000 in the US army. A few hundred have been sold or given away; a few dozen have been effectively total Iraq, etc.
This leaves about 6,000 available for future use or disposal... European countries also have an excess, though likely far smaller numbers.
Number of available armored vehicles is NOT a problem!
Other issues, such as ammo and transport will be more serious limiting factors...
Jonathan
My SO is in Kazan right now. Silver on the black market is going for $125USD. ~4x the LBMA quoted rate out of London. Just a perspective on valuation in RU.
A piece on UA marine drones -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqC_YGTqARg
Something to keep in mind. RU has 3 fleets none of which can support each other. That is a strategic disadvantage. UA has already damaged the dry dock facilities in Svestepol. Any heavy damaged to a vessel now has to head for Novorossiysk for repairs.
Yawn...
When I was in grad school, in the geography department, we had a printout of this graphic representation on the wall of one of our rooms, which used geography AND statistics to demonstrate the West's folly with regard to Russia.
It still holds true today.
https://www.sfu.ca/media-lab/DCM/CMNS%20387%20Visualization/Resources%202008/Images/Napoleon's%20March/Napoleon's-March-01.jpg
Lindsay Graham recently pointed out that the U.S. spending 3% of its annual defense budget has led to 50% losses to Russia:
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-used-3-us-defense-203500822.html
It’s a sad day when the RINOs are more reliable then the non-establishment right.
Okay Pat.
Do one of those for Russia's march to Kiev and back.
@Anon 7:02A,
It gets better for the pro-Putin side.
The latest is to link to a RussiaToday (no bias there, right?) article which uses the NYTimes as a source.
Because apparently The Grey Fishwrap has proven so honest, reliable, and trustworthy over the years, especially when reporting about Russia, that it's now a "reliable source".
Right after pigs fly.
"Okay Pat.
Do one of those for Russia's march to Kiev and back."
For extra grade points, do one for Iraq's abortive escape from Kuwait. Same tech, just 20yrs older.
It's more important to have a deeper understanding of Russian and Kiev's history, which is sorely lacking out here.
1. Krushchev gave Crimea to Kiev in the early 1950's, the Russian Federation merely repossessed it. Crimea was NEVER legitimately part of Ukraine.
2. The Rothschild's funded the COLOR coup in the early 1990's. The previous and current Talmud that head the Ukraine government are not legitimate.
3. The Talmud lead government had been shelling the breakaway eastern, mostly Russian, provinces since 1994.
Last, Russians are the good guys here, the feeble NATOites are the bad.
1. Russia stole Ukraine from the Ukrainians long before Krushchev. This didn't begin in 1950.
2. Russia had wholly co-opted every Ukrainian president from 1991-2014, inclusive. In 2014, Actual Ukrainians got tired of this bullshit, and kicked Moscow's latest puppet out. Who funded it is immaterial. Russia was no longer running a puppet regime on their border, and it pissed them off mightily.
3. You're going to have to decide to service the narrative of a Talmud government, or a neo-nazi one. You can't have it both ways.
4. Donbas and Luhansk were shelled, because after the 2014 popular coup against Moscow's latest puppet, and in direct violation of the treaty of sovereignty signed by Moscow, Russia first militarily annexed Crimea unilaterally during the post-coup confusion, and then followed on with their second and third invasions of Ukraine, by trying to astro-turf a pseudo-uprising, using Russian airborne and spetsnaz troops, dressed in civilian clothes, and pretending to be Ukrainians. It was as unconvincing as a naked magician trying to hide a rabbit, but with Bathhouse Barry sucking Putin's ass, we did nothing about it.
5. The Russians are their usual militaristic imperial asshole selves here, subjugating whomever they can get away with as their latest suddenly-Russian territorial acquisition. Unfortunately for Putin-poleon, it's not 1800 anymore, and that shit doesn't fly. Least of all with the Ukrainians, who've had the temerity to kick Vlad hard in the balls for 18 months, without respite.
History there didn't start in 2022, 2014, or 1950.
Firsthand experience with Russia's tender embrace and earnest affections is why virtually all of the former Warsaw Pact nations vaulted into NATO's open arms, the first chance they got after 1991, and close observation of which are the same reasons Finland and Sweden came over now. NATO hasn't had to hold a gun to anyone's head to get them to come onboard.
Russia? Different story. Same reason the puppet dictator in Belarus is their only "ally".
Ukraine doesn't want to be Russia, now or ever again.
Russia is willing to kill them until they change their mind.
Zelensky, whatever his other faults and shortcomings, is not Moscow's paid-for bitch, and announced that those terms are acceptable, whereupon the citizenry west of the Dnieper began stacking Ivans with a purpose. Huzzah!
Every day that continues is glorious, until Russia can fit its ego and ambitions back inside its actual national borders. Or pine boxes. Same-same.
50:50 those borders shrink even more in the next decade, as Russia is actually spelled Y-U-G-O-S-L-A-V-I-A, albeit with nukes.
Deliberate ignorance of those realities is why the argument with Putin-philes has been asinine from the beginning, and the pretexts to justify it so mendaciously juvenile.
Putin is a lifelong KGB thug (once in, never out), with delusionary megalomania. He doesn't operate in the world's best interests, nor even in Russia's, he operates in his own best interest. Period.
The best use of those sorts of people since ever is as bullet sponges while strapped to a post, in front of a stout backstop.
If they cut his dick off and shove it in his own mouth just before shooting him, dulce et decorum est, pour encourager les autres.
Vis a vis Crimea here is the stupid bit.
Russia still had 49 years left on a 99 year lease on seaports in the area. That was an absorption of convenience. RU already had lease rights that they could have invoked without the military intervention.
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