Always beware the FOOM.
We bring this up, because Someone, over on Peter's BRM blog and here, assured all and sundry most earnestly, from their fund of subject-matter expertise, that this was utterly unpossible, ELEVENTY, forever. Just a couple/three years back, if we recollect correctly. (And this isn't the first such video from Ukraine on the topic; it's more like about the tenth one we've noticed.)
We share it now because by all evidence, we still live on in someone's head, rent free, in perpetuity, and we hope he likes the piss taste this news will impart to his cornflakes.
I guess the Ukes didn't understand that arming OTS prosumer drones with AT grenades was unpossible, so they just went ahead and did it.
When Mohammed does it with a thermite grenade - milspec or homemade - on a POL tank, that will be unpossible too, apparently.
Despite the fact we told you it was going to happen.
We think that such soopergenius-level prognostication is akin to a Chinese fireworks maker in the First Century A.D. thinking "Why would anyone ever want to use this powder as a weapon of war?" But we're cynical like that.
Get in on the betting pool: place your markers in Comments.
When will common sense and obvious logical progression overcome "It can never be so"?
I'm not an expert but when they drop they dont look like hand grenades they look like small bombs or rpg rockets.
ReplyDeleteExile1981
Yeah, they look like PG-7s or AT rifle grenades.
ReplyDeleteSeems to get the job done on thinner top armor.
The people who say, "It aint possible," are the same folks who say "This is America. It cant happen here."
ReplyDeleteJest sayin'.
Those are RPGs with 3d printed fins. The Ukrainians are leveraging everything they can to survive.
ReplyDeleteJust wait till Omar/Achmed figures out that for less than $30K, a Trutrak autopilot can be installed in a 2-seat "ultralight", slaved to a programmable aviation GPS, and a flight plan profile loaded taking it into Candlestick Park carrying a 200# payload of S****x.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's total cost for everything except the payload.
The R/C and ultralight guys(like me) have been talking about this for yrs, warning of the possibility. The only thing that keeps it from happening is Omar/Achmed's incompetence.
TFRs over most college/pro sporting events aren't patrolled by the Air Force/National Guard(except for the Super Bowl) like POTUS/VPOTUS visits are.
Ask the Armenians what some cheap drones can do. Last year they got some first hand answers.
ReplyDeleteI love it when people leave a link to a post in comments that was already part of the original post, since the minute I put it up.
ReplyDeleteMaybe if I used giant red arrows...
Couple of observations at my house h/t to you
ReplyDeleteThis information will be on future exams . . .
ReplyDeleteThis will kick a slow moving arms race into high gear. To be honest, I'm downright surprised it took this long to see the Ukes do this (and for us to see it).
ReplyDeleteGuesses and Prognostications:
- Militaries who have them will very quietly start fielding jammers that work on consumer drone frequencies, if they haven't done so already. (Read: Israel, Et al)
- There will be ANOTHER wave of drone-panic here in the US as panic mongers drum up any news that distracts The Masses from the most recent Xiden gaffe.
- There will be several small manufacturers making specialised "anti-drone" shotgun ammo. Oh wait, that's already done: https://www.budk.com/12-Gauge-Skynet-Drone-Defense--3-Pack-35975
- The Ruskie high command will continue their pants-shitting hysteria that has been ongoing for some time now, with no useful or meaningful results.
- The Ruskie troops will be encouraged to look up on occasion if they happen to hear an odd buzzing noise.
From this video alone I made a few observations. Caveat: I'm just a computer geek with some non-related military experience and a bad drone habit. Please keep your salt shaker handy to apply grains thereof to my ramblings.
First up, Well Done to the Ukes! They certainly have "improvise, adapt and overcome" in their DNA from events of the last century or so. Next: what we saw there was basically the DJI drone interface with some of the details scraped off. This means the trip from "Consumer toy" to "Guided munition" is a short one. Next: If that trip is short, then you still need to have an operator within a kilometer or two of the target (in IDEAL conditions). Not much of an issue in the cities, yes much of an issue once you're out of them. Finally: The type of ordinance they're dropping looks to be AT flavored RPG rounds with fins glued on. Kudos to whoever thought of that, but this is a munition that can be easily shielded against with slat armor over the tops of tanks, as seen here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43273/russian-t-80-tank-with-improvised-anti-drone-armor-reportedly-appears-in-crimea While they're useless against javlins, they probably work well enough against dropped RPG rounds.
The point I'm struggling to get to is this: While effective in certain environments and in certain conditions, what we see here is not some magic war-winner. It's another tool in a large toolbox labeled "ways to kill people and break their stuff" and should be hyped for it's interesting use of COTS equipment, not it's yet-untested long term effectiveness.
I'm less worried about their military effectiveness, which is now demonstrable, than I am about any jackass with a drone and access to milspec munitions making a homemade bomb delivery vehicle that bypasses ground-bound security screening.
ReplyDeleteA small flock of flying claymores at Disneyland or the Superbowl, random hand grenades on rush hour traffic, or remote delivery on critical infrastucture (tank farms, power stations, etc.), for far less trouble than teaching 4 jihadis how to fly planes, and you get mass chaos for a very small buy-in cost.
Not to give anyone ideas, but no need for military munitions. A few Molotov cocktails would wreck havoc on a crowd.
ReplyDelete3 minute search
https://dronexl.co/2022/03/10/molotov-drone-ukrainian-military-dji-inspire/