By background, he's an infantry officer, who among other tours, commanded the 1st Brigade of the 101st Airborne in Iraq in 2002.
I assume he had some wee familiarity with things as the Army three-star in command USAREUR, i.e. all US military forces in NATO, from 2014-2018.
I'm also betting that he had pretty much top-drawer intel on Russian capabilities (including their available logistics, like their available forces, Order of Battle, and ammunition and fuel supplies) which has a teensy bit to do with how long they can sustain combat with half their available army in Ukraine.
I also doubt that Putin has made any substantial changes in those supplies or capabilities in the 3 1/2 years since Hodges retired, and he's been working in the same field for a high-level think tank, whose previous president was Trump's Asst. Sec for European Affairs. (I.e., it's not simply liberal rubbish.) Hodges has been the guy consistently arguing that NATO was too weak, and needed beefing up, and that we should pay more attention to things around the Black Sea.
And then, Russia invaded Ukraine. Mainly from Crimea, in the Black Sea, and from the regions directly bordering NATO members.
So I'ma give the guy some street cred for knowing his stuff, and what Vlad can and cannot pull off. YMMV
Couple that with the three week bog-down of the entire Russian adventure. And then Vlad begging China and Syria for help.
Patterns develop. Look at the whole board. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMUFP3x-cno
So many "experts" out there to take their turn on mainsewer propaganda outlets.
ReplyDeleteBread and circuses...
Without data I don't trust this speculation - I read on March 5 that the Russians would collapse by March 9. And on and on.
ReplyDeleteBy itself, no.
ReplyDeleteBy background, he's an infantry officer, who among other tours, commanded the 1st Brigade of the 101st Airborne in Iraq in 2002.
I assume he had some wee familiarity with things as the Army three-star in command USAREUR, i.e. all US military forces in NATO, from 2014-2018.
I'm also betting that he had pretty much top-drawer intel on Russian capabilities (including their available logistics, like their available forces, Order of Battle, and ammunition and fuel supplies) which has a teensy bit to do with how long they can sustain combat with half their available army in Ukraine.
I also doubt that Putin has made any substantial changes in those supplies or capabilities in the 3 1/2 years since Hodges retired, and he's been working in the same field for a high-level think tank, whose previous president was Trump's Asst. Sec for European Affairs. (I.e., it's not simply liberal rubbish.) Hodges has been the guy consistently arguing that NATO was too weak, and needed beefing up, and that we should pay more attention to things around the Black Sea.
And then, Russia invaded Ukraine. Mainly from Crimea, in the Black Sea, and from the regions directly bordering NATO members.
So I'ma give the guy some street cred for knowing his stuff, and what Vlad can and cannot pull off.
YMMV
Couple that with the three week bog-down of the entire Russian adventure.
And then Vlad begging China and Syria for help.
Patterns develop.
Look at the whole board.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMUFP3x-cno