Regarding The Calculus

h/t WRSA

GVDL shared comments and thoughts at his site about the prospects for the upcoming sportiness.

One commenter shared his thought on how that will go. Go to Gerard's site, and read the exchange, then come back.

-----

1) The idea that LE, the Notional Guard, and the .Mil will work in lockstep is twaddle.

Read up on retired Lt. Gen. Russell Honore's memoirs regarding how that went during and after Katrina, then tell the class we're better, after Obama, at doing that now.

2) LE, all by itself, can generally fuck up a crowbar in a sandbox, unassisted.

I can only point to 5,000 news stories just in the last decade if you need references.

3) Their resources for handling a SWAT incident are neither comprehensive nor resilient.

Two bank robbers tied up the LAPD for most of a day. One Dorner tied up ALL OF CALIFORNIA for a week. One shooter at LAX, despite being downed by the airport cops in about 90 seconds, had LAX shut down for an entire day, and jammed up ATC throughout the country for days afterwards. And those are just three incidents from Califrutopia in RECENT times, let alone what would happen in 49 other states. 10 incidents in 10 states in the same week would cripple the country even if totally uncoordinated and random.

4) The Notional Guard, God bless 'em, regularly deploy to combat. Nonetheless, they spent 250 years earning their reputation as second-tier only after long and frequent evidence of same. It's great when they show up to help after a tornado or hurricane. Not so much if you think they're going to be the cavalry riding to the rescue, most times and places. They'd be better than the Mexican Army, sure. But even a decent Canadian active duty armored brigade would probably work them over. 1000 or 10,000 random actors in 50 states? Pfffft. At that point, the Notional Guard becomes a resupply point, not an impediment.

3) Active forces: As if.

a) The tooth to tail ratio is legendary.

b) They would be starting in the Green Zone, and are behind enemy lines from the minute they come out to play. Including their wives and families. You're sending the 1st Armored after Joe Blow? Tell me how that's going to work when he bombs their kids' playground, and shoots up the mall their wives shop at. They won't get 20 yards from post before they'll turn their turrets around, and RTB. Then the CG orders all dependents onto post, and locks the division down UFN, and laagers up the entire command inside his own wire. Game Over.

Air power? It is to laugh. Most of their flight lines are within effective range of .50cal sniper fire before they even get off the ramp. Their supply lines are all in occupied enemy territory. Food, POL, spare parts. They could fly for maybe a week, tops. Then they'd be grounded, if they ever even took off. And I don't even need SA-7s nor Stingers to get to that point.

4) Reality: Any commander would know that over half his troops would side with the insurgency, and not just a few commanders, who would all defect wholesale, with all equipment. Hell, that even happened in the Russian coup attempt, when it was still the Soviet uUnion, under the iron grip of the CCCP. You think good old boys in Texas, Georgia, NC, etc. would be less inclined to start stringing up generals, or more???

It's even odds that the minute you tried going all posse commitatus on American soil, Marines from Quantico and Lejeune would have already seized the White House, and be holding the entire NCA under guard before anyone else had a chance to stop it, and they'd be reinforced by the 82d AB division and Special Forces before lunch time.

5) There are more hunting licenses just in PA than there are all troops in the US Army.

By 50%.

There are more hunting licenses in the US (nearly 37M, last I looked) than the number of all soldiers in all armies of the world, combined.

Let's spot you that 3M of those are every active and reserve military member, and every LEO in the U.S.

So that only leaves hunters outnumbering cops and military in the country at 10:1 odds.

That war is over by breakfast on Tuesday the Monday it starts, and 90% of them don't even get to fire a shot before Team Oppression is extinct.

The second and third volley wipes out every Democommunist in these United States, and that's less ammo than those hunters used to sight in last year.

Seriously, the idea that this would be hard is risible.

9 out of 10 hunters would be skunked, without anyone but civilians to shoot at, and that's the biggest tragedy in the whole scenario.

6) A couple of years before his untimely death, WeaponsMan estimated (with copious supporting records and documentation) that the oft-cited hoary statistic of "200M guns" in the US was off and understating things by a factor of 3, minimum. (Common Core grads, that means there were 600,000,000 guns.) That was several years ago, and recent events and sales lead one to the inevitable conclusion that there are probably circa 1 BILLION firearms in private hands in the U.S., and several trillions of rounds of ammunition for same.

7) The idea that we couldn't defeat Iraq and Afghanistan is ludicrous. Our military couldn't, certainly, under Marquess Of Queensbury ROE that required them to extend their pinky fingers, and wait to be shot at before returning fire. But if we simply turned hunters loose on those two countries, and issued bounties, you could move in lions and buffalo to restock the human deserts they'd become, if we'd taken that approach, and it wouldn't have taken more than about a month. And both former nations' populations would be as extinct as Carthaginians after the Third Punic War.

"But Aesop, we'd NEVER do that!!"

Perhaps not. More's the pity.

Now tell me the average hunter wouldn't decide that in a civil war, all bets were off, and human life was too precious to shed blood on behalf of liberty and freedom.

Bear well in mind, you'd be selling this to people who kill a deer every year, and already like guns.

I haven't even brought in the other 200M gun owners with no hunting license, who just want to be left alone. So please, tell me they're all going to sit this one out. I think it far likelier they'll settle that shit with one magazine expended apiece, and then go home in peace for the next 100 years, because they could at that point.

And some of them would take the time to mount the heads on pike poles at the city gates afterwards, pour encourager les autres.

8) I'm supposed to be afraid of Big Tech, and neighbors, because reasons.

a) Tech runs on power. If you forgot that, you're an amateur, and should get back on the porch. If you didn't know that because you never thought of it, shame on you. And kindly STFU. Adults are talking.

b) Neighbors run on food. Right now, "snitches get stiches". In civil war, snitches get body bags. And it's tough to tattle if you can't phone it out. Those Karens are going to learn to MYOFB, or they're going to be an endangered species in about a heartbeat. Some will figure it out after the first time they get cold-cocked like Moldylocks did. The ones who keep yapping after that will resemble Eddie Adams' portrait of a VC in Saigon, just as his mind was opened to a new way of thinking. Suture self.

Bug? Feature? Depends which side of the muzzle you're on.

c) How did big tech, a military machine, and snitches work for TPTB in Saigon, Beirut, or Sarajevo?

How about in Baghdad or Kabul? Are we winning there, or not? Show your work.

So yes, things will get sporty, then they'll get ugly.

But anyone that thinks this is going to be a losing proposition for Average Joe are trying to wargame army men against Indians, thinking the cavalry's carbines are insurmountable.

Tell that to Custer.

That's the correct paradigm to look at a civil (which will be anything but) conflict between the people and the .gov in this country.

Team Oppression can make an example out of the brave but stupid, certainly.

But in the end, they're going to be a dead elephant making a meal for jackals, buzzards, and ants.

Ozymandias said to tell them "Hi".

And in case no one told you, this war - and that's what it is - kicked off at 8PM Hawaiian time, 11/3/2020. Much like WWII started for the US the day the Japanese carrier fleet sailed for Honolulu. Not on Dec. 7th.

You are in the battlespace prep phase of things.

Get busy, and start getting your crap in one bag.