Saturday, July 18, 2020

Your Hopeium Broker Called: Sell Short

Read my last comments to the previous post.
There ain't nothin' to be cheerful about, unless you' re where the Kung Flu isn't.
And even if a merciful Deity or blind chance in a random universe hasn't got COVID kicking your @$$ personally, the fact that it's beating the big cities like a rented mule is going to have consequences for you too, unless you're totally self-sufficient, grow everything you eat, and wipe your bottom with tree bark.

The other 99.9% of you should fasten your seatbelts tighter: it's going to be a bumpy rest of the YEAR. Perhaps longer.


  1. Sir,
    At the risk of enduring your ire, I feel compelled to note that I cannot understand how so many credentialed health professionals can be in such disagreement over the efficacy of mask use...? I think the government has done a piss-poor job of clearly and truthfully explaining things (let alone hijacking the situation for partisan bullshit games), resulting in the widespread existence of the Modified Expert Law: For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert.
    There is confusion, resistance, and delay all about, and I fear it is costing us time. The mask use thing seems to only really work if everyone does it at once, but with so much polarization that seems unlikely. The endless noting of the particle size vs pore size discrepancy of the masks seems to only confuse things further. Is there anything definitive that can be used as a guide in this case? I am finding it very difficult to thread this particular needle. Where I live, the population is sufficiently sparse that mask use is a sometimes-thing (although there was an incident the other day in which a person was refused entry to a business, freaked out, went home, was met by the cops, shot at them and died as a result... the straw on his back I guess).
    I am trying to reason and logic my way through this, but there is so much conflicting information, or things masquerading as information, that the truth is obscured. Both sides cannot be right.
    I so thank you for your thoughts.

  2. The COVID 19 ain't so bad... It's all the second order effects that are crashing the country.

  3. The fact is, many people are narcissists, and it is impossible to convince a narcissist that he is wrong. The narcissist will continue to insist that masks do nothing, and that they are just a sign of you and me giving up our freedom. I have absolutely no idea how to persuade a narcissist that their insistence on not wearing a mask is what will cause themselves and the rest of us to have to wait potentially two, three or four years before having the freedom to not worry about the Chinese CCP Bioweapon, when if everyone wore a mask for the next four to eight weeks, this freaking thing would virtually self-extinguish. I am disappointed that there are so many Gilligans who cannot grasp this. You'd think that after almost five months, they [might] consider that they were contributing to the spread and the continuation of the destruction of our economy.

    Sometimes I wonder if these people are trolls from the left who actually have the intent of dividing us. Pretty grim. We'll never get back to the way things were before the Chinese CCP Bioweapon as long as half the population decides that their "freedom" is more important than the freedom for everyone. Me, I have stopped going anywhere that involves interaction with other people, including the grocery store, post office, Lowes, anywhere. Haven't actually missed it, and am doing fine remotely, but I still occasionally hope that someday in the future I'll be able to go get a milkshake from the local ice cream shop. But for now, not taking the chance with my life, or more especially, the lives of my family.

  4. I have been saying since May that I doubt that any of my office - largely working from home since the end of March - would return before the end of the year. At this rate, given what we think we do not know (the re-infection possibility is concerning for any number of reasons) and my own sense (20 + years in the biopharmaceutical industry) that a vaccine is relatively unlikely or if created, more like flu (seasonal) than a one time vaccine, make me think we are well into next year at this point. For those that end up with jobs.

  5. once upon a time i was able to comment, and then i wasn't (thanks for that, TROLLS!) just checking to see if this "goes through" or not? Off topic? Sorry about that... um, how about this, of my 4 house-mates, 3 tested positive for the Kung-Flu. The fourth, maybe he's an alien of some kind? Me? I took a test on Friday, should get the results on Mondays or Tuesday? The oldest guy (also is the landlord) is almost 60, has a few medical issues, and is anxious (as you might imagine)

  6. @Bailey,

    1) Re: "experts" - Always remember that 50% of everyone (doctors, nurses, professors, lawyers, etc.) graduated in the bottom half of their class. Of those in any profession subsequently employed by government, virtually ALL of them are in that lower half. Everything after that is simply gravity, working.
    2) Add to the effects of #1 the relevant modifier that, for but one example, Dr. Bozo Fauci deliberately lied about the effectiveness of masks, rather than saying "Masks work, of course, but would you please not buy them all up so that first responders can get what they need", instead choosing to go with "Masks don't work. But hospitals need them." Which made him
    a) an idiot
    b) an assclown
    c) a liar
    simultaneously (which for anyone but Fauci would be an impressive trifecta, but in his case is merely his standard M.O. 24/7/lifetime, and to make it a grand slam, also undermined everyones' trust in the accuracy and truthfulness of EVERY person in a position of authority and expertise, and then, to put the cherry on the cake, made sure to admit to all of the above unashamedly, just to make sure anyone and everyone would never trust neither any medical doctor nor any government official again.
    At some point in his career, he has used up the cards marked "happenstance" and "coincidence", so his actions must needs be seen in all cases as enemy action. Sheer incompetence must, after a certain number of incidents, be discared in favor of the presumption that he is, in fact, simply evil and malicious, a point which in his case is a moment long before now far back in his rear view mirror.
    3) Multiply his malicious mendacity times everyone in government, from county to state to federal, who is either invompetent, evil, otr an enemy agent of the Democommunist Party, and you have
    a) described 110% of the federal employment rolls
    b) simultaneously explained how, and why, things are like they are now.
    This isn't happenstance, but it is the perfect storm where the Venn diagram circles of Stupid, Incompetent, and Evil people all overlap.
    4) Masks work. We've covered the detaails a time or three.
    Surgical masks protect everyone from you.
    N95 masks also protect you from everyone else.
    Virus doesn't fly around solo, as dry particles; thank a merciful Deity. Viruses only travel hither and yon in much larger liquid droplets, which is WHY both N95 and plain surgical face coverings work at all.
    Do as you think best, but my advice, if you ca , is wear an N95 in public if you can get it, wash your hands, and you can effectively stop worrying about ever getting this disease. It's mild in 90% of cases, and only fatal in about 3%, but madks and simply hand sanitation will mean you'll likely never find out either thing firsthand.
    Best wishes.

    1. Thank you so very much for your thoughts. I appreciate your candour and forthright way. I look forward to better days, once this is behind us... the question is, how long will it take?

      Be well.

  7. Eastern Virginia Medical School's MATH+ protocol

    MATH+ protocol discussed by one of its authors

    Modes of immunity for CoVID-19

    On exposure to CoVID-19 one may have innate immunity: asymptomatic, clears the virus, remains seronegative.
    With adaptive (acquired) immunity one may or may not be symptomatic, clears the virus and may remain seronegative (cellular immunity) or may seroconvert (humoral immunity).

  8. The crop of Mullein this year is through the roof. Really, you don't need tree bark. Just for the love of the lesser deities of functional plumbing, never flush anything but TO down the toilet.

    N.B. What I want to know is how anyone can be certain that it's lack of masks rather than all the other epic public hygiene failures? They're still shoveling CCPHerpes patients into nursing homes, using 3rd world hospital staff, letting the homeless free-range, and running public transportation in the hot spots, but it's... Not wearing cloth masks.

    Maybe it is because masking up, like washing hands is something we can control, when so many other vital decisions, (see above) are taken from us.

    But since some huge portion(s) of the population cannot be trusted not to defecate in the streets, have public temper tantrums, or even refrain from smashing property AND it is apparently impossible to stop them or even hold any of them accountable, expecting them to wear masks strikes me as wishful thinking approaching lunacy.

    For those with the resources and ability to wear properly-fitted N-95 masks: good for you. For everyone else, let your kids play in the backyard unmasked. Their world is going to get so much more awful this fall.

    1. I got enough N95s in early January, for family and friends.
      Aesop, thanks for the heads up.

  9. @Hart,

    For reference, our ICUs are 75% COVID patients, and haven't been less than 40% COVID patients since late March.
    The three busiest hospitals in the county have been intermitently closed due to patient saturation for the last three weeks straight, just about 21 days since re-opening the local world.
    That's not called "doing business", it's called a pandemic.
    Thanks for playing, and we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

    There are many factors in play, but the ones you mention had negligible impact when we were largely locked down. The sole significant variable has been bodies in circulation, and the recent refusal of the Gilligan Cohort to wear masks or treat this seriously until it bites them in the ass. I therefore attribute the spike the the obvious change in status, coupled with that sub-group's lifelong jackassery.

    That's what drove half the spike in NYFC, and it's what's driving the bus now in 50 more cities. The only difference most places is not having a mayor as blisteringly stupid as NYFC's DeBlasio.
    Which is a thin reed to live on.

  10. Klaude, I had some people who I considered to be good friends who were die hard right wingers who refuse to believe that this is an issue and refuse to wear masks.

    Unfortunately, it's not left planted trolls unless they were planted years ago and have been quietly biding their time ever since. I don't know what made formerly rational people lose their freaking minds. They carry on with total indifference to the people around them.

    It's not a great ad for the Right. It's going to be an interesting election year for sure.


  11. Still in a low-COVID area, thankfully. Also, zero first-level contacts have it to date.

  12. Aesop curious about your opinion on something: the one potential factor I have not seen really discussed (for various reasons) was the rather large assemblies that went on at the beginning of June and continued throughout them (e.g., the protests). Did these add to the numbers, conflate them, or have little to no impact?

  13. I'm a nurse in Illinois and I work critical care. Our unit was designated the covid unit. We do 12-hour shifts, 3 days a week, covid patients every shift. 2 of our staff have had covid. For whatever reason, the rest of us have not. We wear N-95 masks, shields and gowns in patient rooms, and are supposed to wear some kind of mask at all times. Masks work, as far as I can see.

    Around here the situation is much improved. We are still seeing positive cases, but way down from May/early June. We are getting maybe 5 cases on the unit at a time, compared to 15-20 before. Our dedicated covid ICU has been closed down. Maybe the new treatments are working too. No longer seeing the rapid declines that were so scary early on.

    Sadly, it destroyed our unit. So many experienced staff quit, switched units or simply refuse to come to work that we are being closed down, split up and merged with step-down and med-tele.

  14. CDC Coronavirus Test Kits Generate 30% False Positive and 20% False Negative Results - Connecticut Pathologist’s Newly Published Findings Confirm

  15. In no order:
    1) Hell, yes, the protests pushed new cases to Mars. There's simply no way they could not have done so.
    2) Staff burnout over this is real, anywhere tempo has been heavy for weeks. We're paying ransom-level bonuses, and still had 4 holes in an 8-nurse shift today.
    OTOH, we're not doing anything magical in hospitals: basic sanitary practice and commonsense infection control, and COVID stays "other peoples' problems."
    Learn that lesson.
    3) The utter $#!^ quality of the available tests is a national disgrace.
    If proceeding on a green light meant you had a 70% chance of making it through an intersection unscathed, no one would ever cross the street. But this level of "reliability" is that which we expect people to entrust their own lives and that of their families. People responsible for this should be rounded up, tried in batchex, lined up against a wall, and shot, all on the same day.
    4) The advantages right now in living out of the mainstream and wway from big cities is obvious. Ol' Remus Woodpile Report Life Lesson #1:
    5) You're welcome. Best wishes.

  16. Today the Woodpile Report announced Ol' Remus's passing and the closure of the Report.

    May God bless and keep him.

  17. This pretty much sums up my thoughts on masks:


  18. 70% is just crap. Over here we have around 85%, and is considered so bad that they actually take two samples and test twice.

  19. Aesop, I work in the biopharamaceutical/medical device industry. If these were a standard commercial test, those false positive/false negative rates would never make a commercial product. It is only because of the emergency state. This is why I have little hope and high concerns for a vaccine.

  20. Totally agree. AFter Aug 1, the bottom will slowly drop out as stimulus ends, people lose jobs at increasing rates, house-arrest frustrations boil over into violence, stores and companies fail and close, more people lose jobs, more people get sicker and die......there is no silver lining. ON top of this, we have the Russians manipulating our media to keep the "pot stired" and keep us at each others' throats, and the politicians play into all of it, pandering where they can, spinning "facts" into bullshit and playing partisan games. This will all come to an end after the November election, but the economic drama will go on for a long time.

    The Marxists who are organizing national violence and hiding inside Black Lives Matter are part and parcel of the Democratic party. This will be the second time, dating back to the Civil War, when Democrats are trying to destroy this country.

    I fear there will be increasing violence and bloodshed. It will get worse.