Batter Up

As of today, after about a week of testing, to the point that supplies of tests have been depleted, there are 35,241 Kung Flu cases in the U.S. There are 473 dead.

That's a CFR of 1.3% Not best. Certainly not the worst. But what it is, AFAIK, now.

Minor Problem (relatively):

If 100M people in the U.S. (out of a possible 330M people in the U.S.) get infected, using that CFR, we can expect 1,300,000 dead.
That's yuuuuuugley worse than "just the flu".

Bigger Problem:

If we get that many dead, based on other countries' experience, we can expect that another 5M will need hospitalization, and live.
That's over 5 times more beds than we have, nationwide. (Which is about 900,000, total.)

That crushes healthcare as you know it, if we try to treat this in all hospitals.

If we do that, we're Italy. Times twenty.
And not only do we lose 1.3M to Kung Flu, we lose everybody to everything else that's not normally lethal, until this is over. Because no beds, no hospitals, no doctors, no nurses, no medicine, no nothing.

Last night, two of the senior docs where I was working were discussing why we need to treat Kung Flu patients somewhere else than in the primary medical system.

Like designating someplace else, (like regional hospitals - probably those run by the county/state/etc.) as Kung Flu Treatment Centers. Thus saving all other hospitals for the normal ER patient load in this crisis.

Hmm. What a great idea.

Especially if we implement it before the expected tsunami of serious Kung Flu pneumonia cases swamps us.

Random Data Points:

Data point: Apparently, out of nowhere, the base hospital at a nearby military base was swamped with 100 cases of serious upper respiratory infections and shortness of breath in one night.

That's the second secondhand report (sources for both: coworkers with kin in each facility) I have of a local hospital getting swamped. Out of nowhere. Exactly as was described by the medical workers in those videos out of Italy.
(People with Kung Flu stay home and cope, until they can't cope no more, because full-blown pneumonia.) 
Data point: NYFS is apparently losing more people to Kung Flu per day than Chicago loses to gunfire. Also saw reports that they're running out of ventilators there.
If that's so, this is, yet again, a wee bit more than "just the flu".


Data point: People are idiots. FL finally closed its beaches; this weekend most of SoCal finally did the same, as hordes of jackholes all went there en masse to escape "stay at home" orders from Governor Gabbin' Nuisance.

Data point: National Guard units are starting to pop up here and there, preparing to...what, exactly? Equal time: I haven't seen any activity at the two units nearest me.

Data point: several po-po from different agencies reported that in L.A., TPTB expect another riot, and they are taking steps to head it off quickly. Including with the CA NG.
With ammunition issued from the start, this time.

Data point: After a whole week, people are already chafing under no work, and no leaving the house, and being stuck at home with their own families 24/7...?...
What happens, do you suppose, when they run out of food, or money, or patience, or all three?

What happens if TPTB decide to lift (mostly voluntary) shelter in place orders, just as this thing hits its stride, and hospitals are suddenly packed to the gills with really sick patients?

Alternatively, what happens if this becomes, despite official protestations, a mandatory "Stay your asses at home unless you're absolutely essential to life and limb" quarantine, enforced at bayonet-point, or worse?

Despite recent strip-mining at the local markets, most people still have neither 30 days' food, nor 30 days' cash, on hand at home.

Best Case.
Worst Case.
Most Likely Case.

Capabilities.
Intentions.

This is how you assess What Could Be.

What are your capabilities and intentions?
What are those of the .Gov, at every level?
What are those of Gilligan, and his family?
What are those of the Free Shit Army in your locale, and in general?
Most threats to your existence aren't flying in from deep space, or Washington D.C., they already live with 5 to 20 miles of where you're sitting right now.

If you haven't Culpered the sh*t out of this, best get cracking.

Panic? F**k no.
Take things heart attack-seriously? Hell, yes!

This is not as bad as things can get.
Nowhere near, in fact.
Nor anywhere close to over.

This is barely the first inning.

Me? I've got job security pretty much until I can't work anymore, and a magic get-through-the-roadblock pass.

What I don't got is Castle Anthrax, with walls and moat.

Do what you can, where you are, with what you've got.

And like infantry since Caesar's legions, always be improving your position.
If/Once things get sporty, it's too late to wish you'd done more beforehand.

Tell everyone in comments, without exaggeration, how things are looking better - or worse - where you are.

This isn't an Alex Jones/George Nouri/Black Helicopters/Illuminati doom and gloom party. It's an information exchange.

(For those with Short Attention Span, read the Comments policy to the right.
A case of Terminal Smart-Ass will be terminal to your comment.
Zero fucks given.)