h/t WRSA
Apologies for leaving it so long, but we've been laboriously explaining to anyone with the wits to think it through in comments elsewhere why Ukraine is far less about Ukraine, and far more about two things: US credibility internationally, and the survival of nuclear non-proliferation as a central national and international policy.
We haven't posted that opus here (yet) due to some personal issues, but before the week has ended, POTUS has just validated both our reasons, and underlined them with a scarlet red highlighter, and then lit off skyrockets in case anyone wasn't paying attention.
We'll get to why last week's debacle in the Oval Office with Zelensky wasn't the win for Trump and Vance the people on the left half of the IQ bell curve think it was, but the above screenshot from Vox, courtesy of WRSA, has just made all our arguments for us.
For Common Core grads, we protect Japan militarily because
A) we get bases there that make responding to problems in Korea easier, as well as for making overflights of anywhere in a fan from Siberia to Southeast Asia far more logistically simple, and
B) because the last time Japan was fully in charge of its own military, it took 14 years of war culminating in the only two planned releases of SPF 30,000 Canned Sunshine in world history, to date, to bring it to a close.
B) is the rather more important reason, and the most germane one starting in late 1945.
Y'see, there were a wee few nations who had seen what the Japanese could accomplish when they coupled zen-like concentration behind unstoppable industrialization, in service of a militaristic code of conduct that made the Spartans look like pussies.
The following nation-states might have a wee objection or two to Japan's military urges unbridled, purely on the basis of first-hand experience with them the last time around:
Russia
China (including - or also - Taiwan)
Mongolia
Korea (both halves)
The Philippines
Australia
New Zealand
Britain
France
India
Singapore
Vietnam
Indonesia
Brunei
Burma
uncounted (I'm frankly too damned lazy at the moment) South Pacific island-nations
Oh, and of course, US. Which handily means the U.S.
IOW, every nation in that hemisphere, a number not in it any longer, and no less than (counts fingers) seven nuclear powers. Which is every one there is except Israel and Pakistan. (So far.)
And hey, Japan doesn't depend on imports anymore, especially oil, like they did before 1940. O wait, that hasn't changed. And Japan isn't xenophobic, regarding other countries' citizenry as lesser mortals. O wait, that hasn't changed. And the Japanese have forgiven us for Hiroshima, and don't hold a grudge, having fully embraced the atrocities they committed and vowing to never, ever want to do anything like that again. O wait, that hasn't happened either, and they still suffer from the Japanese version of Waldheimer Syndrome, where they can't remember anything that happened before 1945. And consequently, Korea (both halves), China, and the Philippines' population doesn't hate Japan and anything Japanese. Except for their living pulsing guts. (Remarkably like Ukrainians feel about Russians, and for just about the exact same reasons, btw.)
So yeah, Mr. President, you go on and make Japan totally responsible for defending itself. Get them to throw us out of those bases, and then take the 0.2 seconds it'll take them to decide to change their national constitution, withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and then spend about 15 minutes that it'll take them to start building nuclear weapons.
China's getting frisky, Russia still hasn't settled a century-old dispute about islands to the north of Japan, and Crazy Kim keeps launching nuclear-capable missiles over their way, so they'd be crazy not to build nukes. And with their national ability, resources, and the will to do it, it'll take them probably until about lunchtime next Wednesday before they test one that works. (Maybe over Pyongyang, if they have a sense of humor.)
So now South Korea's going to want some too.
So is Taiwan.
And Singapore.
And Oz and the Kiwis will do some soul-searching. Odds are, Oz says yes, and the Kiwis wet their pants and start teaching Japanese in primary school, but I could be wrong there.
And all of them could probably accomplish a nuclear arsenal within the year.
Less if they find a willing seller.
The Philippines and Indonesia will want some too. Pakistan would be too glad to help them out, in exchange for the southern Philippines going Muslim separatist. (You can tell where worldwide Catholicism and Muslim expansion met by looking at the religion demographics of the various Philippine Islands. Hint: Our first clash with militant Islam was the Barbary pirates just after the dawn of the 1800s. The second was when we inherited the Philippine Islands from Spain after 1898.)
And, what the hell, what could go wrong with six new nuclear powers - seven, counting Japan - in the eastern Pacific, including two more nuclear Muslim or Muslim-leaning countries? Muslim countries always get along with everyone, amirite??
Sweetness and light, in exchange for Trump saving the US another $50 or so.
Genius.
Then Japan realizes that in many cases, their interests don't really align with US interests.
So now we've got China and Japan looking to challenge the U.S. geopolitically in the Eastern Pacific. Greaaaaaaaaaaaaat. BRILLIANT!
It's not like we ever fought a war with Japan over that sort of thing, right?
And then maybe those other nations decide we're probably going to drop them like a hot potato the minute it's expedient, just like we're looking to do with Ukraine now.
U.S.: "O No! Not you (South Korea/Taiwan/Philippines/Australia/New Zealand)! We'd never backstab you like we just did Ukraine! You're our special friends."
Them: "Sh'yeah, right, you lying sacks of American shit. Pull the other one; it's got bells on it. Go fuck yourselves, and get the hell out of our country while you're up."
Fucking Brilliant!!!!
We'll re-fight WWII in the Pacific with mostly the same players, because territorial and imperial ambitions haven't gone away, and neither have centuries-old squabbles, only this time, Oprah-like, "You get a nuke, You get a nuke...EVERYONE gets nukes!!!" Except this time, pretty much no one else is on our side, and all that trade Trump thinks will be happening will be divided amongst other nations, with other currencies, and we'll be hoping for table scraps. Imagine how much we'll save on a navy when we can't find willing buyers for anything we've got to sell anywhere beyond Honolulu.
Cue the Happy Dance!
Look what we'll save ourselves into.
That'll be so much cheaper in the long run than sucking it up, shutting up, and keeping Japan out of the militarism and nuclear weapon business.
Pretty much for the same reason we waited until an entire generation died in Germany to breed the urge to invade France out of those @$$holes.
And, while we're up, word to your mother: All the hardware we sold to Japan, the front-line stuff? Their versions aren't sales, they're made by Japan, under license.
What does that mean?
Well, please list the Japanese products - hardware and software - they didn't get from us, improve, turn around, and kick our asses with.
We'll wait.
Tell us whether Toyota or Chrysler makes better cars these days.
Tell us how many TVs we make here anymore (Common Core grads: that would be zero). Or video players. Or computers.
Hell, if it wasn't for Hollywood making the actual product, the entire movie business would be Japanese right now. With China bootlegging the content, and Japan, Korea, and Vietnam making the hardware, it's barely ours anymore anyhow.
So let's, by all means, do for the military in Japan what we've done for the electronics and automobile industries. What could possibly go wrong?
So for the love of Christ, somebody, ANYBODY, kindly tackle POTUS, sit him down in the Situation Room, and explain to him, with lots of pictures and a 2x4 if necessary, that not every government expenditure is better if we cut it completely, and that there are reasons for doing some of the things he never learned about before this week.
You want to talk about trimming US expenditures, and getting Japan to pony up a bit more, just like we wish NATO would do?
Okay, fine.
Just think long and hard about what happens if they say "Fuck you. You need us more than we need you."
Like they will.
And for those of you waaaaaay over on the left end of the IQ curve, who are still sounding out some of what we wrote, write this lesson on your hands with a Sharpie:
Nations do NOT have "friends".
They have INTERESTS.
Then, in the file folder marked "No Shit, Sherlock", put in an index card that notes that a friendly, allied, minimally militarized and totally non-nuclear armed Japan is in OURS.
If you need audio-visual aids, because reading is hard, or because everything that happened before you were born is lumped in with trench warfare, dinosaurs, and the Crusades, we can recommend a couple of dozen absolutely spiffy explanations to explain the finer points to you, courtesy of Warner Brothers, Universal, Columbia, Fox, Republic, and Paramount, etc. until the penny finally drops for you, or you can manage history books without pictures:
Then imagine doing it all over x10, except suddenly it all looks like the horror section of The Day After, playing on an endless loop.
Built up a wee bit, eh?
ReplyDeleteWhat's missing from the argument you so eloquently make (I do like your writing, even if I disagree with your logic), is that the US is done being the world police. All of the conversations about power and force expression are pointless, because we're done babysitting the world+dog.
Not
My
Fucking
Problem
.... see, now Japan and the military bases don't matter. Cuz it's not my fucking problem.
.... And as long as we have the 10,000 warheads w/ SPF 30K in a can, nobody has to give two shits what Japan does with their military. It's like a trump card (pun intended), that's why every tin-pot dictator since forever has wanted to get his hands on one. Can't fuck with me anymore, I got me a big stick.
No one stated anywhere we were to be the world's police.
DeleteIn fact, had we not assured Ukraine certain things in 1994, we could happily wash our hands now, and have stood pat and watched Putin add yet another satellite nation back under Russian control, at gunpoint.
So that instead we'd now be wondering if Poland, or the Baltic States were next on his list of re-acquisitions, while we did a crash survey of the flight worthiness of our Minuteman missiles.
Well played.
But you imagine that somehow, because reasons, contrary to all historical evidence, and in spite of multitudinous strategic U.S. national interests which depend on multiple other nations around the world, that the United States can suddenly become Switzerland.
Tell us how that worked out for us in 1914.
And again in 1939.
"Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it."
This is why you fail.
F-.
The Japanese have built two Carriers the Kaga and the Izumo which currently carry helicopters but can be converted into carrying VTOL aircraft like Harriers and the F35B. Most of Asia would lose it's shit if Japan rearmed but the question is after 80 years of soft living is there anyone in Japan who could match their Samarai great great grandfathers?
ReplyDeleteNot long ago, we had a young gentleman come to one of the local firing ranges from Japan.
DeleteHe had apparently decided to come here to commit ritual seppuku, except with a Ruger P-85, which he could not acquire in the homeland.
So he rented a range pistol, loaded a full mag of 9mm, went to the end lane, and proceeded to shoot himself 6 times across the abdomen from left to right, then capped himself just inside the jawbone through the brain.
Yes, his attempt was successful.
Underestimate Japanese national character at your peril.
There is a reason most of Asia would lose its collective shit if Japan re-arms.
And it isn't because they think 80 years of soft living have fundamentally transformed Japan.
Rather the opposite.
The number of alleged Conservatives who view this new isolationist policy of Trumps as a win is honestly disturbing, but maybe that's because back during Barack Hussein Obama's tenure, I remember Conservatives actually knew history.
ReplyDeleteI miss the days when the right had a brain. I've never seen a group handle winning this poorly.
And why hasn't stepped ot to overturn or override this is beyond me. One our branches of government is AWOL, and that's a bad thing since it's the side that makes the rules.
~Rhea
Supposedly Japan does not currently have nuclear weapons. Maybe they don't have any already assembled, but I suspect they have the parts to build one in a couple of weeks, if not days.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking more like 15 minutes, but I essentially agree with you.
DeleteIt is the art of the deal. When your mother sent you to bed without supper it was not her intent to never feed you again. When the president puts a tariff on a country that is not dealing with us fairly it is not his intent to incite a trade war. These are negotiating tools.
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. is today in serious risk of war with China exactly because they have taken all of our production ability and our tech manufacturing not to mention our medical supplies, away from us. We don't even make our own steel and aluminum any more. We must change this and do it quickly. How do you do something this big quickly? Trump is showing you. And the RISK you talk about is there, right this minute and for the last few decades that risk has been there. Trump is only exposing the risk that has been hanging over our head. It must be dealt with and fast.
Right.
DeleteLike when FDR cut off Japan's resources, like oil and steel, in hopes that would reign in their militarism.
Tell the class how that art of the deal worked out for the 16+ nations in the OP.
Show all work.
The first principle in geopolitics is to stop imagining nations act like rational adults. It assumes facts not in evidence anywhere in recorded human history.
D-.
Roy Kerns
ReplyDeleteKeen insights, Aesop.
As I watched the antics re Ukraine and today in your blog first read Trump's remarks re Japan, my "hope for" is the same. First, I hope Trump has figured the U.S. cannot by itself maintain world peace. That errand would take too much wealth and far too much will. Second, I hope Trump's own analysis parallels Aesop's. That is, I'm hoping Trump is making a calculated gamble that will end in persuading other nations both to recognize the reality of Aesop's analysis and also to figure out a way to pick up part of the load.
But I don't believe that hope can stand against a key insight of Aesop's analysis. I cannot see how a bunch of nations pondering their own self interests won't figure it is not remotely wise to trust U.S. promises.
Nicest rant in some time! Consider that Trump's opening gambits have little in relation to expected outcomes. Regarding the rearming of Japan? I hear the Japanese andChinese don't like one another...#Nanking. The enemy of my enemy is my friend., albeit temporarily.
ReplyDeleteHope is not a plan.
DeleteAnd when you signal to all your suddenly-erstwhile "allies" that when the rubber meets the road, they can go fuck themselves, expect them to take you seriously.
Footnote: Japan's article 9 remains unchanged. However since Abe Japan interprets that defense of a partner beyond its borders does not contradict the article. That is quite a sumo level mental gymnastics to achieve. So who does Japan assume is a partner determines their 'defensive' operations??
ReplyDelete