Caveats:
A) IANAStockbrocker, stock picker, or any other kind of stock exchange guy. I GTFOut for good after the second time in 10 years it crushed my savings and wiped out half of my accounts in '08. I have since found more resilient investment vehicles since then. I leave serious market research to the likes of market and business bloggers like Tyler Durden, Deninger, and other aficionados of that particular game of chance.
B) I'm sure the stock market is honest and above-board as the day is long, because the SEC assures us it is so, and the government would never, ever lie to us. It's just wild coincidence that every time there's trouble for big investors, the government swoops in with barrels of cash, and every time the market wipes out little investors, the government burps, farts, and wanders off looking for another drink.
Having said that, two questions occur to me:
IF the market were something approaching "rigged", and another major crash was coming with some inevitability, where it could be nudged around somewhat...
1) If the person(s) overseeing that rigging loved, Loved, LOVED Emperor Poopypants, knowing there was an election coming on Nov. 5th of this year, when would they want it to crater?
2) If the person(s) overseeing that rigging hated, Hated, HATED Orange Man Bad, but despite putting both thumbs, a foot, and a fat lady on the scale he somehow managed to beat the Margin Of Cheating and prevail on Election Day, when would they want the market to crater?
Hmm. Mirabile dictu! In both cases, things start looking pretty shitty for stock investments right around 5 minutes after the opening bell on November 6th of this year.
Assuming the market ain't entirely straight and above board.
Assuming a "major market correction" is imminent/inevitable.
No reason to assume that might happen, just because inflation has gone from 1.4% to 9% officially since Jan 2021, or because Money Printer Go Brrrrrr! policies has seen your dollar worth 20% less now than it was worth just a few years ago, or because unemployment is at record levels, and all the jobs "added" since 2021 are minimum-wage entry level jobs getting snagged by endless hordes of wetbacks from around the world, and people whose green cards haven't even had the ink dry on the signature line. Just another coincidence, I'm sure, and endless happy days are coming like a freight train.
But the answers to those two questions would seem to indicate that stock investment gets kind of sketchy come the sixth of November, or anytime after that, for those of you still betting on that particular faro game.
Just spitballing. YMMV. Time will tell.
Aesop, you fathom not the worst case scenario -- a stock market melt up. No crash, 'Its to the moon!' as Ralph Cramden used to say. The worst part about it is that nobody has to do anything in particular other than letting the roulette wheel keep spinning.
ReplyDeleteThese kind of meltups are indicative of hyperinflation in the underlying economy. You eventually get the crash, but it will be a magnitude worse that the depression of '29. You don't have to look far, just cast a gaze at the Venezuelan stock market since the socialists took over in that country.
Law of unintended consequence's I don't think they can hold it together that long. And what's to say there won't be outside influences.
ReplyDeleteIn this case, I suspect the Democrats, etc want the gravy train to continue as long as it can, regardless of how much worse the damage is later.
ReplyDeleteIf they had been smart about it, they would have allowed a recession in 2023 that Biden could take credit for fixing before the election. If it happened before the election, it's too late for Biden t recover from it (assuming, of course, he COULD recover from it).
If they want to blame Trump, it'll happen after the election - Most likely they'll hold it until he's inaugurated but before his people are in place so he can't stop them.
While I don't believe "they" can completely control the system, there are things that can be done to drive or hold back changes and I believe they are holding back as much as they can for now. I'm surprised they raised interest rates as much as they did in 2022 - I thought they'd delay that for longer.
Jonathan
1. Yes, its rigged.
ReplyDelete2. Its rigged both ways, up and down.
3. The rigging can be avoided.
4. You will go broke fast.
5. You can get rich --- slowly.
Been in the game over fifty years. Took fifteen to learn those five things.
The stock market is just like a Nevada casino. The only people who consistently win in a casino is the casino. The only people who consistently win in the stock market are the 'insiders' who run and control the market. It's ALL a giant game rigged to move money from the little guy to the corrupt people running the show. As the WOPR computer in Wargames learned...The only winning move is to not play.
ReplyDeleteOne of Biden's tactical mistakes was to not front-load economic pain at the beginning of his term when he could blame it on Trump and then ride the upswinging economy during his re-election campaign.
ReplyDeleteReagan's first term started with a horrible economy and very high interest rates but his tax policies had time to clear the air by the time he was up for re-election.
It would actually be in Trump's best interest to have the shit-storm happen right after his election.
Trump made the market go UP had last time, I dunno if that will happen this time.
ReplyDeleteYes, It is rigged, but more with inside information that other manipulation. End result is similar though.
At the end of it you CAN make big money by being somewhat liquid at key points in our societies system. Elections can be indicative of such events.
Watch the markets in the 3 weeks before the election...They'll tell you who is gonna win. If it is optimistic....Trump. If pessemistic.....Biden.
YMMV
"One of Biden's tactical mistakes was to not front-load economic pain at the beginning of his term when he could blame it on Trump and then ride the upswinging economy during his re-election campaign."
ReplyDeleteI think they tried. They just screwed up because they can't see out of the Keynsian box - when Yellen said that inflation was going to be transitory, she really believed that.
-Grey Fox
That and they really think that printing money helps all the time.
DeleteBefore Biden we were lucky that the economy expanded enough to absorb much of the money printed from Bush 2 on, keeping inflation down but that didn't work for Biden - he's too anti business.
J
Ma LSP has substantial XOM, a lot going back to the '20s. Well, she hasn't sold and I don't blame her.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of which, her Grandma was driving through Midland in the the wildcat boom when some fool tried to carjack them at a crossroads. Grandma pulled a revolver outta the glove box and off he ran.
Moral? Diamond hands.
If they can keep it aloft that long. Keep in mind, there are many players at the table.
ReplyDeleteMy gut for some time now has been telling me they will install frump yes frump in November, then pull the plug due to all their shenanigans creating trillions in global debt ad unfounded liabilities like SS, pensions and so forth while enriching themselves.
ReplyDeleteLook out below because it starts slowly, then all at once.
It's a possibility if they know they can't keep it together; set him up to fail and later try to come in as saviors of what is left.
DeleteI see some of them as that loony, but I doubt many would go along with it - too many ways they could have trouble if he pulls through.
J