What Is The Sound Of One Buttcheek Flapping?

We ask that question, because this is the most Pollyannish, "Remain calm! All is well!" load of half-assed codswallop we've seen since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

And considering all the recokulous bullshit spewed on the topic to date, that's saying something.

Kill twenty minutes, and a few brain cells, because you'll be dumber for reading the whole thing, but take one for the team and do it anyways.

Then, maybe someone who plays over yonder could ask Armchair Warlord a few pointed questions.

1) How far short of their conscription goals did Russia's planned 300K mobilization fall?

1a) Who did they get, when some 6,000,000 draftable military-aged Russian males GTFO of Dodge last year, to Anywhere But Russia, rather than be drafted, and when report after report - with Russian MoD photographic proof - of the sick, lame, and lazy, blind, crippled, and crazy were "the best they could come up with?

2) Of the 350,000 initial total ground forces they started out with last year

a) how many of them did Russia lose, KIA, WIA, DOW, crippled for life, etc., to date?

b) of the 183 nominal fieldable battalions On War Day One, how many of those were destroyed to date in Ukraine?

c) Of those Imaginary 395 maneuver battalions AW ass-trapolated exist now, where in blistering fuck did the tanks, APCs, support vehicles, AKs, shovels, mess kits, clothing, boots, and underpants needed to increase the Russian Army by 116%, and make good all combat losses in Ukraine simultaneously, generate from, other than somewhere deep inside his own underpants? 

3) If the Russians are doing an "all of the above" refit and mobilization, where in blistering fuck are all these imaginary T80s and T-90s hiding?

3b) Granting arguendo the recockulous idea that Russia has the industrial capacity to start shitting out metric fucktons of T-80s and T-90s and that they could even make enough to cover losses, why would they even bother to undertake a 3-year refit of museum-piece brew-up-at-a-flick T-62s (obsolete when Nixon was president, FFS), rather than just crank out even more metric fucktons of those world-beating T-80s and T-90s alone, instead of more cannon fodder for anything from a LAAW on up?

[Hint: "I need so many tanks, I'm going to refit those M-4 Shermans and M-48 Pattons to fight alongside my M-1A1 and M-1A2 Abrams tanks"...said no general ever.]

4) If Putin could do all of this while getting his army's ass kicked halfway back to their start lines since August, what magical new operational art have they learned while parked, or driving in reverse for the last year? Where? When? How? This is operational art via the Underpants Gnome.

Granting some of AW's mathematics, he forgets a wee bit:

A) He's accounted for exactly 0% of Russian losses to date, which even Russia acknowledges have been prodigious.

B) He imagines the Russians, who haven't been able to find their own asses four days in a row since the first day of the invasion, now possess a resurrected Marshal Zhukov, with vast Russian hordes of troops ready to sweep across the steppes like Genghis Khan. Sh'yeah; when monkeys fly outta my butt.

C) He neglects the vastly diminished capability of Russia to lay down artillery barrages, evidenced by the steadily shrinking output of rounds from the peak last summer.

D) He hasn't explained the near total lack of Russian ability to conduct combined arms attacks, ever, in any way, pretty much once since 1946.

E) He neglects to tell us where the vaunted Russian Air Force has been hiding since February 28th, 2022. Currently, there are more MiGs on Moscow milk cartons than there are seen in theater, and that's been true since last March.

F) The only Russians suffering more losses than Russian privates are Russian generals. That's also the only military demographic where Putin's body count has outstripped Ukraine's.

- - -

In short, rosiest assumptions to the fore, Russia might have been able to replace half their losses since this started. With even less experienced troops and officers, and older and more decrepit equipment - when they even have enough boots and rifles to issue to troops - fighting the same way that's seen them pushed back inexorably for a year.

Not construct an army two and a half times as big as the one Putin created in 30 years since the fall of the Soviet Union.

That's dorm-room bong-level bullshit.

And the single-most effective Russian unit to date was Wagner Group, which has been quite simply destroyed. It no longer exists. Their Spetznaz and airborne troops, the only other formations that rose to a level above mediocre, were erased last year trying to take Kiev and the nearby airport. Well-played.

And just because you write a new version of "Any Day Now" in red letters twenty feet high all over the Kremlin, it doesn't make it true.

The linked piece puts the "anal" in "analysis".

It should have been left up his ass, not pulled out on the end of his thumb and polished.