Thursday, July 20, 2023

Institutional Memory Is A Myth

h/t MDSA 


  1. Bracken's "Dear Mr. Security Agent should be making the rounds again...
    Boat Guy


    from 2018, so the numbers aren't quite right but they're ballpark enough...

    "80,000 SWAT-trained police
    + 2,623 ATF Special Agents
    + 200 FBI HRT Members
    = 82,863 Potentially Available Door Kickers

    … presumably working in teams of 8, attempting to seize 9,000,000 newly-contraband semi-auto rifles.

    Before we finish the math, I’ll state some “for the sake of argument” assumptions:

    That every SWAT-trained officer in the country is pressed into service.
    That there would be no “false positives”–meaning that 100% of the tips leading to raids were accurate. (Unlikely)
    That no local police departments would opt out of serving unconstitutional Federal gun warrants. (Unlikely)
    That all raids would be successful. (Unlikely)
    That each successful raid would net an average of three contraband semi-auto rifles. (Possible)
    That every Door Kicker would get an equal share in the work. (Very unlikely)
    That every Door Kicker would be alive and well through the entire campaign of terror–with no incapacitating injuries or deaths of SWAT officers, no refusals, no resignations, and no early retirements. (Very unlikely)

    A lot of those are not safe assumptions. But for the sake of completing a gedankenexperiment, let’s pen this out on the back of a napkin, as a “best case” for an unconstitutional gun confiscation campaign. Here are the division equations:

    9,000,000 ÷ 82,863 = 108 (x 8 officers per team) = 864 raids, per officer

    Let that sink in: Every officer would have to survive 864 gun-grabbing raids."

  3. I don't suppose the idiots at ATF would ever just arrest you at work or anything? Maybe the 5 big guy shuffle into a white van at the Walmart parking lot?

    I bet you carry a tracking device called a cellphone almost everywhere you go, eh?

    Cap you as you go to the mailbox?

    Nope like British dopes just walk up to each armed American's front door and ask to arrest you? Really?

    Sun Tzu has a few thoughts about underestimating your enemy and overestimating your own prowess.

    I wonder if Sun Tzu has any comments about awaiting an attack upon your own doorstep?

  4. @Anon 8:16A

    1) And the BATFE would know where you work, and, exactly?
    Times 9,000,000 targets?

    2) And by Day Two, when word and video confirmation hits the 'net, what would be the life expectancy of white vans and their occupants at WalMart parking lots?

    3) Cellphone everywhere? No, now that you mention it.

    4) Capping you at the mailbox is a two-edged sword, and with feds doing it, the counter-battery likely would include their wives and kids, just to drive the point home, by about Thursday of Week One. Probably with helpful YouTube videos of the final moments, to give Officer GunGrabber something to think about before punching in for work the next day.

    Nice try, though.

    This is why SurvivalBlog stopped being worth the time to me when ,Rawles stopped editing it himself.
    82,863 door-kickers divided into 8-man teams = 10,357 teams, not 108 of anything.

    Still 868 raids per team.

    Which is about 860 more than they could count on surviving, if they only lost one officer per raid.

    And frankly, after the first couple of days of raids, they could count on getting shot to doll rags before they even stacked up, and losing entire teams just trying to get into position.

    By Day Three, those teams would be supply points for the Resistance, not tactically useful units.

    By the end of the first week, folks would probably start hunting them at their own offices, rather than waiting for them to show up, and/or ambushing them whenever and wherever seen on roads and highways.

    You'd think Waco might've learned 'em a thing or two, but you'd be wrong.

    They'll do this, and it will work out for them about the same way the Tet Offensive worked out for the VC: an extinction-level event.

    1. I like the way this dood thinks. Gargantuan titanium balls right out front and flashing in blazing red neon. The way it should be.
      If they find Ghost Estancia fetching they get a nightmare the never imagined. D54th Engr Bn, Demo Spec. Wildflecken 74-48

  5. Hey, doctrine has them stacking on either side of your door... give some thought to that and they'll need some new doctrine pretty quickly.

    And while Texas made it a crime to spray them with anything, even if it's not in itself dangerous, think about the reaction when something that smells like chemicals starts spraying out of those little mosquito control nozzles all along your soffits, or that second set of sprinkler heads you installed along the walkway to your door.

    Just enclosing your porch and forcing them to stack away from your front door puts a monkey wrench in normal tactics, and provides you with some protection against break ins too.

    Burglar alarm systems set your perimeter at your door, but security cams above the consumer level almost all come with AI based alarming, if someone crosses a virtual line, or if people or vehicles are detected in the image. Move your alert perimeter far enough away to employ some countermeasures.

    Or wait for the 4am door kick and go calmly, counting on the ROL to save you.


    It's worth remembering that the people hiding Anne Frank were breaking the law, and the people who turned the family in were following it...

    1. Current doctrine has them breaching, and then using a drone, or robot, to scope the interior. The drone can scan the whole of the interior, (possibly), and the robot can as well. They'll send in the dog once the suspect has barricaded, and the door breached, by the robot.

      That's after they've called you out and you've failed to come out.

      Just, FYI.

    2. Absolutely worth remembering! When is the law no longer the law, according to our own founding doctrine: duty to not follow unjust laws. Love the thoughts Aesop, as always.
      - Tim

  6. Thick oak doors and stout crossbraces would go a long way towards Making The Fourth Amendment Great Again.

  7. "1) And the BATFE would know where you work, and, exactly?
    Times 9,000,000 targets?"

    How would they know where you work? Let's see I'm assuming your far to intelligent to think that your nom de Guerre or anon or whatever keeps your blowhard noise from getting keyworded by a NSA supercomputer?

    Then perhaps your use of credit cards to order online guns, gun parts, ammo?

    That gives them a name. I suspect most of us are not as skilled in spy craft as yourself, so the Credit Card has our real name and address on it, if for nothing else to get it shipped to the right place? PO boxes are a tad small for ammo boxes.

    Then IRS cross reference to your last few Tax Returns, maybe you don't put your real name, address and place of employment on that form?

    Do they NEED to blow away 9 million targets? How many loudmouth arrogant Publicly executed targets would be needed to "cow" the rest MIGHT be a Fed Gov type thought.

    Yes, I think the Feds are that arrogant and stupid that way.

    That plus See something, say something pointing out targets?

    I'm pretty sure the loudmouths have been "exercising their rights" to tell everybody nearby (as I've heard them in coffee shops talking to their buddy IGNORING that 20+ other ears are nearby) about their 2 AD Rights. A subtle cellphone photo of them and or their vehicle would go nicely with a red flag call in, eh?

    "2) And by Day Two, when word and video confirmation hits the 'net, what would be the life expectancy of white vans and their occupants at WalMart parking lots?"

    Pity the net is down due to technical problems, cell phones in your area are down, so sad, too bad. Must be those EVIL Russians again...

    "3) Cellphone everywhere? No, now that you mention it."

    Kind of hard to do the On Call Nurse thing without it, isn't it?

    "Thick oak doors and stout crossbraces would go a long way towards Making The Fourth Amendment Great Again."

    One word, minigun. Your castle isn't that stout.

    Keep on promoting the idea they care about the Rule of Law and will not use their massive propaganda machine and news blackouts to make the hunt for the "Great White Terrorists" a public blood sport, with millions cheering them on.

    Sun Tzu speaks about know yourself and the enemy. He also speaks poorly about arrogance.

    1. I am curious regarding anyone in America - including the imbeciles - listening to a minigun spooling up for even a few seconds; seeing what it does; and then somehow being "ok" with the guy down the street that they've known forever; getting shredded...
      I'll take "Turning Complacent Citizens to Rebels" for a thousand...
      Original Grandpa

    2. re -- NSA
      Presumes the existence of such.
      But is that presumption based on propaganda from the government agents?
      Based on every other level of goofiness coming from the government agents, their every word a lie, could that 'supercomputer' blathering just be another bunch of their nincompoopery?
      Based solely on one example -- the Ukraine foreign-aid skim scam -- what are the chances they promised the moon, then diverted those hundreds of billions into hookers-n-blow (as BisonPrepper James M Dakin puts it), saving just enough for a nifty-neato sign on an empty shell-corporation building?

    3. He has a point about their arrogance (shit: “F-16s and Nukes”)…and they could just as easily turn loose the third world invasion force pouring into the country first…kinda chip away at a few folks that way, whittle it down a bit…remember these folks are CRAZY…so no telling…
      - Tim

  8. 1) 9,000,000 targets would shut down the NSA for years. The bottleneck there is human analysts. Too much intel is far worse than too little.

    2) I don't buy guns or gun-related merch with any CC. Ever. Easy habit to not break.

    3) Ammo isn't shippable here. Bummer for the BATFE. I've picked it up in person for cash for literal decades. Bummer for you.

    4) Lacking a name, they still have no tax records or pay stubs. So no job.

    5) So now you're going to argue they only need a fraction. Okay, let's play that hunch.
    a) How has that worked out using Trump as the piñata?
    b) How have the J6 arrests worked to cool public antipathy?
    This isn't working out quite as you'd hoped, has it?

    6) Loudmouths ≠ the 9,000,000 targets.

    7) So now the entire internet is magically down, which has happened zero times in history, because that's exactly the sort of thing it's designed to thwart. FFS, we had video of China's COVID problem daily, despite the CCP's best efforts. You should google this stuff if you're going to write fiction.

    8) I'm not an "on-call" nurse, so no, it's completely irrelevant.
    When I was working registry, I still didn't tote one of those fuckers everywhere I went, just as I don't do now. Another swing and a miss.

    9) Minigun? Why not unicorns with JDAMs? Sharks with frickin' laser beams? Suicide bisons with ANFO vests? Ninja pixies with light sabers? Stop me if you were about to suggest all those.

    Seriously, try decaf. You aren't serious, and if you are, you're either twelve years old, or never passed that mental stage of development.

    This isn't arrogance.
    Grown-ups are talking mathematics and logistics. You're pulling flying reindeer and the Tooth Fairy out of your ass as though it's a serious response.

    Some of us have had TS/SBI clearances, and know it takes the federal bureaucracy six months to run one, because they don't have the manpower, and that's for a paltry few thousands of SBIs/year.

    You think they're going to shut down the entire internet and bring miniguns to a raid -actually 9,000,000 of them - for one verboten rifle. Get a new deck; yours is a few cards short.

    I mean, it was obvious you were just jerking off for yourself when you forgot to mention they'd just hack into Santa's Naughty List, and get all of us in one simple go.


  9. Except that during Katrina they DID go door-to-door confiscating guns, and nothing happened.

  10. Logically, I think when it kicks off, raids will proceed from blue hives to red nothings due to logistics. Unless there is a total comm blackout after about day 3 mobility kills which are easy will hamper raids a bunch. By the end of the first week most places will only be able to muster a short stack if that because team mates will
    not show up for work after sifting thru the ashes of their housing trying to find the bodies of their family that went missing as it went up. And the other stack-ables will wonder, " who's next ". A real enthusiasm damper for sure.

    If/when it makes it to the raids in BFE, full blown civil war. I don't think it's gonna make it that far.

  11. I saw a claim recently that the ATF is having trouble keeping it's entry units up because the officers are fat, out of shape, and keep injuring themselves in training, then taking disability to retire early. Have you seen those claims?

  12. After the many insults to freedom and liberty I am pretty sure this is closer to truth than bold words I hear.

    Do I need to list them for folks with tweety bird memories? Jan 6th spark a memory? MANY insults, NO RESPONSE, just blowing hot air.

    No wonder the Powers that be keep the white terrorist propaganda going, keeps us subdued.

    People who do seldom talk about it. So, spare me the "You first" cowardly crap. Yes, I've said it and know that I am not going to be first. I don't blow hot internet comments about "If this happens THEN I'm a going to DO this" crapola. Gee self-honesty, what a concept.

    Have you ever given a thought how wimpy the Fed's "efforts" to disarm us" has been?

    Almost like they WANT US to react violently?

    Maybe they don't WANT to Disarm us? Maybe the population reduction scheme NEEDS us to kill off about half the population while the Powers that Be hide in secure locations?

    Cheaper to have us do the deed than pay their mercenaries and deal with the refusals to obey of the rest? Just make US the White Terrorists that need to be defeated to SAVE OUR Democracy (spit). Easier to motivate troops if they think they are the Good Guys, eh?

    Do I know the answer? Nope, I'm not that arrogant, I don't know everything like some bloggers. Just an old medic who has had the blood of a fellow solder splattered over me as I was working on a casualty in real combat. No Hollywood experence so I'm just a moron.

  13. @Anon 5:34P,
    Does the Ninth Ward of Nawlins strike you as a particular hotbed of Second Amendment fervor? Get back to us on that.

    @Anon 6:21P,
    Current doctrine? It is to laugh.
    But let's, by all means, see them repeat that "doctrine" 9,000,000 times.
    Breach? Under fire? With a robot? And then someone with even a midling IQ drops a comforter or quilt over that robot. To quote John McLane,
    "Now I have a machinegun. Ho!Ho!Ho!"
    Send in the drone.
    Pull! Shotgun, corner pocket.
    Officer Woof?
    They're breeding bulletproof dogs these days out by you? No? Not by me either.
    Bummer for Officer Woof.

    As to lew rockwell's bilge:
    January 6th affected a couple of hundred dipshits.
    Insult to liberty? Sure.
    Affect me or you much? Bupkus. Zilch. Nada. Zip.
    The suggestion that it would or should do otherwise is asinine in the extreme.
    Now try doing that to 9,000,000 people, coast to coast, 200 times per state per day, 3 raids per team per day, for an endless year.
    Sh'yeah, pull the other one, it's got bells on it.

    The people doing the raids?
    That's the Only Ones protecting the @$$holes in those "secret bunkers".
    When they run out of those pawns? It's open season on bunker-dwelling elites.
    Maybe Lew never saw The Dirty Dozen. For those that did, how'd the bunker-dwelling Nazis do at the end? Asking for nine million owners of verboten weapons.

    The troops they've got now aren't going to die for anybody. They're far likelier to desert en masse than any generation of American troops since Valley Forge.

    And another thing for that "they'll just use a minigun" codswallop:
    The US military has had, and used copiously, miniguns in every war since 1963.
    Anybody, list for the class all US military victories since that year.
    We've had F-15s almost as long, and nukes even longer.
    Emperor Poopypants, being a military genius on par with Canuckistani Field Marshal Filthie, puts a lot of stock in those weapons as well.
    Kindly list for the class all the conflicts those weapons have won for the US since 1946.
    There will be a quiz afterwards.

    There were never 9,000,000 Taliban in Afghanistan, on any day from 1990-present.
    We sent half our army there, for twenty years.
    So, whose flag flies over Kabul today?

    And all the feds at once, on their best day, aren't 1/10th as competent, organized, and well-equipped as the army we sent to Afghanistan.

    Do the goddamn math, then pop off.

    The biggest risk in a feds vs. the people conflict, since ever, is that the people will run out of targets to shoot before most of them even get a chance to shoot one.

    People wetting themselves over fedboi cream dreams are merely virtue-signaling the yellow stripe up the middles of their backs.
    To each his own.

    "If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."

    We certainly will.

    1. "@Anon 6:21P,
      Current doctrine? It is to laugh.
      But let's, by all means, see them repeat that "doctrine" 9,000,000 times.
      Breach? Under fire? With a robot? And then someone with even a midling IQ drops a comforter or quilt over that robot. To quote John McLane,
      "Now I have a machinegun. Ho!Ho!Ho!"
      Send in the drone.
      Pull! Shotgun, corner pocket.
      Officer Woof?
      They're breeding bulletproof dogs these days out by you? No? Not by me either.
      Bummer for Officer Woof."

      Point is, if you know the tactics, you can counter them. That's all.

  14. We have the numbers do we have the will?

    So far I've only seen bluster. When it gets personal I have no doubt that Americans will defend themselves. But until that the Media will keep them on the sidelines as they have for several years of provocation thus far.

    In Afghanistan our families were safe behind a thousand miles or so of ocean. The afghans were motivated.

    We talk about attacking their families, they will attack ours. The population reduction the powers that be have been telling us will occur.

    What % of your people depend on daily medications like diabetes or such? Early kills. Loss of water treatment 3 or so days kill.

    Bluster we have in abundance, logistics not so much. Got a field hospital or do you think rebel hospitals will hide and treat your wounded? Good luck with that.

    Fancy words will not provide your family safe water, food or such. The British rarely attacked civilians, our scum will enjoy harming them.

    So what will get you motivated?

  15. @Anon 10:34,

    You're catching on.

    Logistics + resilience + infrastructure = victory.

    But it has to start somewhere.

    TPTB think they want to kick things off.
    It isn't going to work out for them like they think it is.
    Which they'll find out, much as Custer did, one June afternoon in Montana territory.

  16. Wonder how many lists we're all on?

    1. @WilderWealthyWise,
      * I am convinced there are zero lists.
      * I am convinced any propaganda from the RulingParasites is intended to divert attention from and conceal their inbred dumbness.
      * I am convinced the government agents are Hive drone-cells, incapable of independent or creative thought.
      * I am convinced that zuck-gates-bezo-(fill in the blank) machine was cobbled together from random junkyard parts back in the 1930s, and it is faltering, staggering, deaf and blind and gasping its last.
      I think any time considering those irrelevants is wasted.
      Masturbatory fun, but merely diddling with concepts instead of living our few remaining.

  17. @john wilder, more than you can imagine. Sliced and diced and correlated in real time, IF they want you for something. If you are just part of the noise, well, I know from listening to them that they can't even positively id some people on FB or other anti-social media, have to do stop and frisks to figure out who is driving street racers that they've been surveilling for weeks, and can't even keep their 'pole cams' running to watch the drug houses.

    Panopticon is watching, but unless you draw it's attention directly, it's vast gaze isn't watching YOU.

    AI may change that. Network analysis may change that. TPTB may go active and start searching for the influencers and most prolific network nodes. The three letters have been weaponized against citizens, and they can be directed and tasked.

    Remember your last visit to any .gov agency though. Most of them are diversity hires too fat, lazy, or dumb to work elsewhere, working with software and hardware provided by the lowest bidder-- 10 years ago. I'm sure there are offices that are up to date. But they've been outsourcing the heavy lifting to private enterprise like the social media companies and the market research companies. And outsourcing intelligence gathering to the subjects themselves- witness the amount of overshare and fedbaiting going on. People can't seem to keep their mouths shut and are incriminating themselves every day.

    They are pretty good at tying the strings together AFTER the fact, but notoriously bad at predicting who will be a problem.

    like most threats I prep against, I think about it, consider it, take some steps to mitigate against it, and then move on to the threats that are more likely, more devastating, or that I can actually do something about.


  18. @nick, agreed. Good perspective.

  19. @LargeMarge . . . I think that dovetails with @nick. All is fine until the Eye of Sauron falls upon an individual . . . but AI could also give that Eye life.