h/t Common Cents
If this is The Sun's April Fool's joke, it's a scorcher. Apparently Russia complained that Ukraine forces sent two Mi-24 helicopter gunships 25 miles inside Russia to blow up an oil tank farm in Belgorod last night.
Complained to who? Boo frickin' hoo, Vlad. You thought this was only going to be one-way, on a two-way range?
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| Greetings from Kyiv! |
Cue some Russian general saying this:
We can only hope this is real, and not a prank. (It's on about 14 media sites, when last we looked.) Perhaps it might inject some sanity into the situation, and induce less delusional thinking to take control of events in the region. If it's a prank, we thoroughly enjoyed it. If it isn't: even more so.
considering the mileage the "Ghost of Kiev" got, I won't hold my breath about the veracity of this without satellite photos and some on the ground cell phone video...
ReplyDeleteIt's real. And there is a small chance that it was done by Ukrainian Mils equipped with Russian IFFs taken from shot down aircraft. But there is also a chance Russians needed something like this for internal propaganda.
ReplyDeletewojtek
Based on just the first few seconds of video, it appears to be an actual air-to-ground attack. By whom is an open question. If it's Ukraine, my only thought is why it took them so long to decide to hit the Russian where they live.
ReplyDelete@Vitaeus,
ReplyDeleteThe "Ghost Of Kiev" b.s. got zero mileage here.
The Russians are complaining about this. It happened.
By whom is indeed the open question.
It's as likely Russia as anyone, to wave a bloody shirt for internal consumption.
After the "Nazis EVERYWHERE!" stories, this is likely Operation "Canned Goods" 2.0.
There are NO Ukrainian Mi-24s, all were destroyed weeks ago, along with most of the Uki tracks and wheeled armor. Remember, the Russian units have a superior anti-armor man portable missile, superior to Javelin, also very high performance air to ground HEAT missiles.
ReplyDeleteEffectively, the Russian Federation has won this war, period.
Imagine, the Russians complaining about retaliation by Ukraine when they've been laying waste to Ukraine and blowing up Ukrainian fuel depots for five weeks now. Add in that the recent pics of hundreds of blown up Russian tanks are probably making the underground rounds in Russia about now, it's probably a Russian intelligence psyop, for which Putin is vaguely familiar. Although, with rumors of Russian convoys stalled for lack of fuel, who knows what the real story is. As usual, in war, the truth is the first casualty. We probably won't know the real truth ever or at least until one side or the other declares victory or defeat.
ReplyDeleteNemo
@Pat,
ReplyDeleteThat explains their retreat with their tails between their legs rather awkwardly, wouldn't you say?
And if not the Ukes, why would someone winning this war need to gin up support by blowing up their own POL tank farm?
Nothing you postulate matches up with reality.
When the terrain on the ground doesn't match the map, it's not the terrain that's wrong.
Rethink your map.
@Nemo,
ReplyDeleteSuppose you are the district commander responsible for that fuel depot. How would you cover up for stealing and selling off on the black market a large chunk of the oil reserve? Esp. if the word of such a possibility started circulating around in view of the fuel shortages you mentioned?
wojtek
Who knows what happened. Exposed fuel tanks are easy meat for RPG s or Javelins let alone attack helos. If the Russians are repositioning forces from the Kiev/Kyiv area, that might free up some Ukrainian assets from further west. Maybe the US or NATO is finally providing some useful intel. Whatever, it doesn't take a genius to go for the supplies rather than playing Wack-a-Mole with individual vehicles. It seems relatively obvious that the big Russian push is to establish a land bridge between Russian turf and the Crimea thus also obvious are the counter strike targets. Looks like the Ukraine is still in the game.
ReplyDeleteStupid, stubborn pride and refusing to admit one was wrong is a serious personality flaw. Doubling down on the wrong just make people look more stupid: that Karen on FB who continues to insist that things were worse under Trump, and Biden is really making things better!!!!
ReplyDeleteSome people thought that Putin was some kind of Strong Alpha Male Holy Warrior 87D Chessmaster. And it's becoming obvious that he's just another crooked wannabe tyrant in waaaayyyy over his head. An ex-spook pretending to be a general, and failing at it.
In this situation, it's okay to acknowledge that you picked the wrong guy to worship and adore. Performing a Self-Palski and doubling down on stupid doesn't make you look tough.
...is sauce for the Gander. Report must've been true as Ivan hit Ukulele refineries in Odessa as retaliation.
ReplyDeleteY’all do know that the US has a couple of covert and clandestine (there’s a difference, look it up) groups of experienced aviators who have extensive training and experience in flying and fighting with OPFOR aircraft? One such group operates out of Fort Eustis or Fort Lee in Virginia. They’re nominally part of the army. The other group is part of that Christian outreach organization out of Langley.
ReplyDeleteMy money is on a few of them flying this particular mission. The Ukes don’t have the ability to gather the electronic order of battle info or the situational intelligence necessary to successfully pull of a mission like this. The US on the other hand, has pioneered much of the how to text book for conducting deep strike air to ground raids.
Moreover it’s extremely unlikely that we would share the intelligence we are gathering with all the satellites, UAS’s, and other strategic intelligence platforms with anyone much less the UKEs who are doubtlessly thoroughly infiltrated by Russian Intel assets.
@Anon 12:19,
ReplyDeleteOkay. Let's say that happened.
Now tell us how these invisible units got the men and equipment 6000 miles away, through an active war zone, planned, executed, and exfil'ed from a cross-border ninja raid into Russian airspace, and got out, and no one else the wiser to what would have to be about three levels of magnitude more difficult than the Doolittle Raid in 1942. (BTW, the other OPFOR group operates out of Nellis AFB and the NTC, another 3000 miles further away.)
Just to shoot up a minimally valuable tank farm that could have been taken out by a few guys on bicycles with man-portable explosives and AT rockets about 300 times easier.
Then tell us why they'd bother an overt act of war that would trigger WW III, for that weak-ass payoff.
Show all work.
Hand-waving and gainsaying won't cut it.
"Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.."
Either the Ukes snuck in a curveball, or Ivan did it himself, to gin up an excuse to wave the bloody shirt for internal consumption. Anything else trails those likelihoods by about 200 miles on foot, and it's limping, on crutches, with two broken legs, absent some magic pixie dust.
"Intel" will get you there. Looks like "someone" with eyes in the sky, has been providing the Ukrainians with data on radar coverage and target location. Two arms depots were hit from 25+ miles away. That isn't luck.
ReplyDeleteIt isn't clear if the eyes belong to the EU or the US, but somebody is passing target information to the Ukrainians. That isn't an overt act of war. The Ukrainians have the means and the skills to make use of that information. The Ukrainians didn't walk artillery around Belgorod until something blew up. The depots got specific hits, this time.
Maybe it was a warning due to the attack on Mariupol. Or a "hint" that the Crimea will not be a secure location.