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| "Paging Captain Ahabski to the white courtesy phone..." |
Ruble collapses, Russian market crashes and closes, as sanctions hit Russia.
Cut off from world markets, bank runs begin in Russia; economy in freefall.
Russian Army gets its ass handed to it.
EU to fund arms sales to Ukraine, and shut off Russian media.
Whatever Putin thought he was going to accomplish by invading Ukraine, an embarrassing ongoing defeat is turning into a disaster, and threatening a total debacle, which could take down Putin, and Russia, to unimaginable new depths.
By Day Five of the US going into Kuwait, our troops were on their second day of celebrations, after destroying the cream of Saddam's Army and liberating all of Kuwait in 72 hours. In stark contrast, Putin's army, all propaganda aside, can't even fuel their own vehicles, their unenthusiastic conscripts have walked home, and his invasion couldn't have been run any worse if it was organized by Marx - that's Harpo, or Chico, not Karl.
The last people to get dunked on this hard by Ukraine was the UK national basketball team in 2013.
Putin's wobbling aim is running out of toes to shoot off, and the muzzle of his pistol is slewing dangerously close to his own junk.
This is the point at which Putin shows up to a meeting, and finds everyone there with a gun in their hand, except himself, and they ask him if he wants to walk out, and retire to his dacha in perpetuity while his successor is named, or whether he'd rather have it announced internationally that he committed suicide by shooting himself in the back of the head three or four times.
That's how they roll in Russia, going back a century.
If he rattles the nuclear saber one more time, without fanfare his warships all start sinking worldwide, and the West announces a bounty on his head of $100M cash, to any member of the Russian government who wishes to collect it.
And apparently, he's dragging in his next batch of cannon fodder, by stripping Russia of even more conventional military power he daren't risk, and cannot afford to lose. This isn't springing from justification, it's from psychotic obsession. And this is the guy with the Russian nuclear launch codes.
If he keeps pressing on like some Slavic Captain Ahab, I'm betting his generals don't even wait for the bounty, nor offer him a quiet retirement, they just shoot the sonofabitch before he can bring total ruin on the entire nation.
Even now, if he survives the week, it's likely a minor miracle worthy of investigation by the Vatican.*
And best of all: Despite all the efforts by the Banana Republic's Worst and Stupidest to gin up this war, and bait Captain Oblivious into starting it (which succeeded wildly, obviously), nearly two-thirds of the American people realize that a large part of the reason it happened at all is the doddering senile incompetence of Emperor Poopypants and his gang of Merry Jackholes. If Poopypants' approval ratings get any lower, the White House will need to sponsor a dive by Robert Ballard to find them.
It's lucky for Poopypants that unlike Putin's predicament, the dollar is sound, our economy is booming, and our military is the strongest and most competent it's ever...Hey, waitaminute, WTF!!!
Personally, I think he accomplished exactly what he was told to accomplish.
ReplyDeleteA history podcast I listen to regularly has remarked that the two greatest fears among Russian leaders have always been the palace coup, and the peasant revolt.
ReplyDeleteJudging from the protests going on in Moscow and the discomfort of some of his generals, Putin may well get both if he isn't careful.
Yes I keep seeing pictures of armored vehicles out of gas beside the road and am reminded of that old saying, "Amateurs study tactics and ex-KGB Colonels don't study anything."
ReplyDeleteOpie Odd
Retired Colonel in the Air Force here with a thought:
ReplyDeleteAn American calling a Russian leader crazy and incompetent for not winning a war in a week seems juuuuuust a little hypocritical vis-a-vis Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea - basically any of America's undeclared wars.
And nice try on the Kuwait example, but the successful ground war/road trip was after weeks of the mighty Air Force's air campaign that flattened the Iraqi army (Iraqi's surrendering to drones...you're welcome). Plus, Desert Storm led to nearly a decade of no-fly zone enforcement over Iraq in both the north and south portions of that country. It did aid in the passing around of lots of air medals and defense contracts though, so it's got THAT doing for it.
America hasn't "won" a war since it officially declared a war. All these others are a mishmash of years-long defense contractor binges that send American boys to Arlington (including my father, panel 22E).
Personally, I think there is something seriously 'off' with Putin lately, and this is the manifestation of that.
ReplyDelete" This is the point at which Putin shows up to a meeting, and finds everyone there with a gun in their hand, except himself, and they ask him if he wants to walk out, and retire to his dacha in perpetuity while his successor is named, or whether he'd rather have it announced internationally that he committed suicide by shooting himself in the back of the head three or four times."
ReplyDeleteFrom your keyboard to God's eyes.
Boat Guy
@Old NFO: I don't know where I read it now, but there was somebody saying that they thought Putin had cracked up a bit since the start of the pandemic; either he started listening to different people or the stress of it all got to him, or both.
ReplyDeleteKind of an unnerving thought, if true. We've typically been operating under the assumption that Putin is a tyrant, but a rational tyrant at least. If he's not playing with a full deck anymore....*googles "survival bunkers"*
@Dear Retired Col.,
ReplyDeleteApples and pineapples. One of these things is not like the other.
The wars in Iraq and A-stan were over in a couple of weeks.
The 10-15 years of retarded "nation-building" were what didn't work out so well. You could look it up.
As for even Vietnam, last I looked, as of 1973, we were winning when we left.
It's tough to lose a war you've bailed out of.
Pretty sure I saw S. Vietnam lose it fairly decisively, all on their own, in '75.
The U.S.? Not so much.
Korea? You mean the free and independent one, non-stop since 1953? The one with Osan AFB, when last I looked? You're calling that a loss??
It started partitioned, it ended partitioned. When somebody tried to "win" it all, we got invited to dance with half the Chinese Army. How'd that work out?
And yes, 6 weeks of air war pummeled the crap out of Saddam in 1990, esp. the Republican Guards and the C3 assets. So what you've pointed out, without meaning to, is that Putin wasn't smart enough to do that first. I mean, jeebus crispies, John Warden's The Air Campaign has been in print since 1988, and it's on its third edition. Can't the Kremlin afford $15, and the time to crack a friggin' book???
Instead, Vlad's half-assed splatter-fire attack opening merely alerted the entire country of the existential threat, and rather than rolling over, they hoisted their middle fingers, and commenced to whacking Russians non-stop ever since.
You pointed out why the Russians have cleat marks in their junk, colonel, sir, but you haven't shown their junk to be anything like cleat-mark free.
Son, I like you, you've got heart, and balls, and thats a sight more than most. But some of you think, just ain't so.
ReplyDeleteIn fairness the RVN didn't lose "all on their own" the loss was certainly aided and abetted by the U.S. Congress cutting off that money stuff you were just talking about. That effort was spearheaded by a certain senator from Delaware.
ReplyDeleteBoat Guy
Good morning from a retired Col. Enjoying our exchange.
ReplyDeleteYou suggested I "look it up." Good call... I did.
You said, "The wars in Iraq and A-stan were over in a couple of weeks." If they were available for comment, I'm sure the 6500 post-couple-of-weeks US dead from those places would take issue with your "...couple of weeks" statement. [2400 US dead in Afghanistan from 2003 (more than a couple weeks after the 2001 invasion)-2021 plus the 4100 in Iraq from 2004(not including 2003 when we invaded)-2020] And they weren't killed "nation building." They were killed by enemy action (snipers, ambushes, IEDs), not run over in unfortunate cement mixer accidents.
You probably want to look again at Vietnam, because the US was not winning in 1973...the US was not gaining enemy territory and was not diminishing the enemy's ability to fight (long conversation, best done over beers, cigars, and profanity - happy to host). I'll caveat that by noting that there was that wonderfully brief period of mighty US airpower called Operation Linebacker I and II that bitch-slapped the North back to the negotiating table for an armistice - not a surrender doc).
I did 3 years in two tours at Osan AB, RoK, been to the DMZ a couple times (highly recommend if you haven't been). I didn't call Korea a loss (as you stated), but it definitely wasn't a win. A defeated enemy signing a surrender document in front of you is a win. That' what I meant by "America hasn't "won" a war since it officially declared a war." These other actions are just willy-nilly throwing of American boys and tax dollars into endless meatgrinders that is the US military industrial complex. By not getting a congressional declaration of war, we sign our sons up for slaughter in the name of corporate slaughter (see Maj Gen Smedley Butler's excellent "War is a Racket).
As for Putin, I didn't say that the Russians didn't have any "cleat marks in their junk," I only point out that everyone who's ever entered into combat get cleat marks where they don't want them, and it sometimes takes awhile to get results. See Murphy's Laws on Combat for more details. My grandfather ran across that God-forsaken Jap-held runway on Peleliu (predicted 4 days, took two+ months) and later did the Okinawa gig (3+ months) as a combat marine - sometimes winning takes longer than a week or two.
As a side note, I'm happy to see Russians killing sort-of-russians...I call it happy hour. Like the Iran-Iraq War. But the Russians have been holding back the "Full Monty" of weapons so far. If the Russians unleash the dogs and go "full Chechnya" on the Ukes (full artillery barrages of entire city blocks, thermobaric bombs) then you'll see Russian progress: taking of enemy territory and reduction of their ability to fight.
Praying US "leadership" is not stupid enough to get us involved in the actual fighting...confidence, as usual, is not high.
Pointing out any number of dead, from operations neither war, nor any part of the military's mission, simply underlines the stupidity of the endeavor.
ReplyDeleteIt's own-goal jackassery, to be certain. That doesn't make it a war.
An "operation other than war"? Sure.
QED: Not a war.
I had a lot of training during my time in, and read extensively and widely before, during, and after.
I cannot undertake to lay my hands on the Field Manual describing "Nation Building" ex cloaca as anything the military is supposed to do.
If the Pentacle brasshole geniuses had dictated that the services learn to sing and dance, that would not, ipso facto, have made Iraq or A-stan a musical.
And if they directed that it take place in a minefield, regrettable as the inevitable casualties would be, that does not make it a war. Just egregiously stupid and tragically wasteful.
Which describes everything in Iraq and A-stan after the war was over, to a "t".
As for "Nam, we had drawn down so severely by the early '70s, air forces and advisors were the bulk of our in-country capability. And that minimal capability bombed the NVA back to the DMZ in the Easter Offensive of '72, and went on to bomb Ho's successors to the peace table by the end of that year. We were never seeking a total unconditional surrender, which error was part and parcel of SVN losing their existence once the US president was taken down by Watergate, and the Dems in Congress had lost all stomach for cleaning up their mess, started by them to begin with via the Tonkin Gulf Resolution in the first place. The country fell because, yet again, it never really existed as a functional entity. And yet we forgot this exact lesson by 2003, because of retard Colon Powell's jackassical "you break it, you own it" policy of trying to conjure a nation out of thin air. Powell was the McNamara of the 21st century. And most of the sandbox body count is entirely his fault.
I've been to both Koreas, thanks, including the DMZ. We restored the status quo ante, which manifestly was all we could do, and have held it so for nearly 70 years. That's all the win that we set out to accomplish, and accomplish it we have. If you want to talk another occasion where we probably shold have lit up the Bright White Lights of Knowledge by way of explanation to Mao and Stalin, I won't disagree, but President Truman and Gen. MacArthur couldn't agree on that either.
And "endless meatgrinders" is exactly my point. They're an exercise in futility.
I chose to overlook Butler's late-in-life senility (or venality), as when he wrote that, he was a full-time paid spokeshole for the isolationist wing of the communist party of the USA. So manifestly, even two MoH's don't prevent someone from becoming a rent-seeking @$$hole entirely lacking in character or moral fiber. His douchebaggery by anyone less decorated would have resulted in the kind of lifelong ignominy reserved for Charles Lindbergh after spouting pro-Hitler sentiments between the wars. As it is, the Corps treats anything he did after retirement like it happened at Area 51, for cause.
The problem in the current conflict is the itchiness to get in on the game in Ukraine, which would be the sort of mission creep that triggers Global Thermonuclear War.
I have little faith in our idiots to avoid that, which ought to explain my fervent desire that the Russian generals step up and do the right thing regarding Putin, who's clearly as deranged as Biden is senile, before we get to another Defcon Two situation.
Hell of a world, ain't it?
As for Ukraine itself, win, lose, or draw, the Russians have now been set back to 1949.
ReplyDeleteThey are now every bit as evil as the Soviets ever were, and any goodwill from after the fall of the Soviet empire has been pissed into the wind since last Thursday.
Even the gorram Swiss are gunning for them, Poland (full NATO member Poland, btw) is handing - handing, mind you - two squadrons of Mig-29s to Ukraine.
Both they and the Baltic States fear they're the next item on Putin's dinner menu, and they're not having any of it.
Even China isn't taking Vlad's phone calls.
Russia is now in the same category as the Norks and the Iranians: international pariahs.
the guerrilla war in Ukraine will kill whatever part of the Russian Army is left there, for decades, if they don't leave right now. They're out of the world banking system, they're being sanctioned worse than the Norks, the hate on them is going to last another 50 years, minimum, even if they left this minute, and every bordering nation is going to be running weapons to the Ukrainian resistance until hell freezes over.
Putin has painted himself into a corner, with absolutely no way to win, and everything he does from here on out only makes it worse for him, even if he topples the Ukrainian government, shoots their leaders, and installs another puppet government.
That guy will be hounded out again in another year, and then NATO will add Ukraine - including Donbass and Crimea - to the alliance and establish military air bases and IRBMs on Ukrainian soil, and probably give the local commanders the launch codes and keys on Day One.
By contrast, if the Russian military shoots Vlad in the head, withdraws in haste, and makes soft apologies, all is forgiven in about a New York Minute.
And Ukraine joins NATO this year, instead of next.
Putin has shot his own junk off with a shotgun, and now he's reloading and waving the gun wildly at everyone telling him to put it down.
And under those circumstances, you don't walk away.
It's time to put Old Yeller down.
And the politburo (or whatever they call themselves now) and the Russian military high command is probably already measuring Putin for his coffin, whether he knows that or not.
They may be paranoid, but they're not stupid.
It's the only way to end this short of sliding towards a nuclear exchange, and it only costs about $1.50 in ammo.
Time will tell Aesop, time will tell.
ReplyDeleteSo far almost everything anti-Russian to get excited about the skirmish in Ukraine has in about 48 hours has been PROVEN BS. Snake Island, The "Ghost of Kiev" and so on. BTW you should try out that flight simulator, it's really user friendly, I've bagged a pair of F16's on it already.
Right now, almost 22% of the oil we use in American comes from Russia. Probably WHY the SWIFT Sanctions DON'T touch Energy Sales eh? A bit higher % of our Fertilizer but no more until June 2022 IF then.
A little LATE for our farmers as even my pre-paid fertilizer order was delayed and then canceled well BEFORE the Ukraine thing. I've spoken to two neighbor farmers who are having the same problem.
Maybe if the economic stress gets too much Vlad will have to change the price of his energy to Grams of Gold, eh? Not going to happen? Check out what the OPEC folks are accepting for their oil, hint it's not JUST the Petrodollar.
Given the lights and heat would shudder to a whimpering stop in more than just Germany without Russian oil-natty gas that would be a shame. So, what are we going to do Nuke the Pipeline Aesop?
Want to guess 2 of the high producers of wheat and fertilizer in the world? Ukraine and Russia. Going to be a LOT OF HUNGRY Mouths about late spring as Winter Wheat isn't for sale. CHINA has already offered market rate on ALL of Putin's Oil-natty gas and Wheat.
The Arab Spring happened in part because of a lack of cheap food.
HOW many days after the EBT crowd cannot buy anything with their cards will we see real trouble in America Aesop? When they malfunctioned what 2 years ago the EBT situation got crazy in less than 24 hours before the Gove told Walmart to honor them and get reimbursed.
So, unless your happy dreams of a Military Coup against Putin happens, HE has many options to make those that bother him suffer.
What's that thing you like to say, "Play stupid games, get stupid prizes"?
Are we playing smart with the Sock Puppets handlers running this show?
Snake Island as BS? Horseshit and spin.
ReplyDeleteThe island was attacked by Russia.
The military facility was destroyed by the Russians.
After the Ukrainian troops present told the Russian Navy to get fucked.
The only change in the story is that they weren't all wiped out; they were captured.
That changes what, in the grand scheme?
Too many people talking without getting the story straight, and garbling it because they were gargling Putin's junk.
Don't listen to those guys.
You'll notice no "Ghost of Kiev" stories here. It smelled fishy from the get-go.
The first casualty in war is truth.
What's undeniable is that Ukraine is a sovereign and independent country, whose territorial integrity Russia promised to respect.
Instead, they're attempting to conquer it back into their nation, something which last occurred in Europe in from 1938-1945.
Putin's pulled the world onto his own head, and he's going to reap the consequences for decades, unless Canned Sunshine shortens the sentence.
Pity you don't have a camp snoopy to fall back onto Aesop. All that training and personal equipment to deal with a Country wide Rodny King Level mass riot over lack of electricity and food. Except this time, it's not the mostly unarmed minority youth, it's well armed and hungry-mad Americans when their little kid says, "Daddy I'm HUNGRY".
ReplyDeleteYou know the "Rifle behind every blade of grass" idea? USED Against US... Going to be hard even to farm with hungry armed folks seeking food.
Do you even have gardening skills once the American Dollar falls to the level of the Ruble? We're talking about years of troubles unless by some amazing Miracle of Leadership and good weather we somehow restore American energy, fertilizer and farming to its previous glory.
How many YEARS of storage foods do you have friend? I don't need to know, just pointing out the situation in black and white.
The FIRST Casualty of WAR is the Truth. That's why I am treating all the BS from CNN EVEN when Recycled by our "Alterative News" as toxic not for my garden bullshit.
I notice you neatly passed by the logistics issues the USA has placed itself vis a vis the Russians, China and Ukraine fertilizer, oil-natty gas and basic food stuffs.
Also, side stepped how determined our Government of Fools to reduce America into a 3rd world shithole, unable or UNWILLING to feed itself. Bought and PAID FOR by China. What did Cicero say about the Traitor within?
Even if Obama's puppet does "WIN" this little war to hide their crimes against America WE the People STILL LOSE. Hunger is the tool of tyrants, and they are going to USE it, just like ole USSR some spout about around here.
MAYBE I should have listened to "President Biden's" (I just threw up in my mouth a little) State of the Union Address cheering Yeah, AMERICA, YEAH, we rock.
The Honorable America I served for 20+ years is dead, killed by the Traitors within and THEY are USING a "Controllable little War" to get us to CHEER then on.
Save your family and trusted friends FIRST, then endeavor to save the World and our Republic.
No such animal as a controllable little war. The side effects of this will haunt our families for decades. Not just the possible nuclear affects but the economic and social effects as systems crash.
I have options, but not The Camp Snoopy.
ReplyDeleteIf this goes to shit before that point, the bloodletting I'm fine with will trend towards epic. If you can't avoid a war, be the warlord, right?
I haven't bypassed anything. Most of those are own-goals. We won't starve. But countries lacking the world's breadbasket will. Our reductions are self-inflicted, and can be reversed with the flip of a switch. The lag tie from decision to results is the bugaboo there, but the eventual outcome isn't in doubt.
Our willful dependence of manufacturing offshore is the real trouble. People told TPTB for thirty years that was dangerous, trending to suicidal, but quick money talks louder than common sense.