Ever see John Mosby of Mountain Guerrilla casually turn and pop off 10 or 15 rounds and put them all into not just the black, but the X-ring? Me either. (Because I've never taken one of his courses.) Wanna see him turn and put 10 or 15 bullet-points in the X-ring of the Kung Flu discussion? Flip over to his latest blogpost. It's on Patreon. And you should throw him a bone and subscribe, if you can. It's that good. He didn't just nail this one, he hammers it home again and again and again, like an artillery regimental time-on-target. I'm not saying this because I agree with him, or he agrees with me, or any such nonsense. I'm telling you because he literally walks around 27 compass points of this discussion, like Tiger Woods analyzing a putt, and then he sinks a 30-footer with one sharp tap - nothing but plunk. Shut your mouth, open your eyes and ears, engage your brain, and go learn. Go.
---------
Atlanta is shutting down all its schools, because one teacher, who's been in a number of local schools, has tested positive for Kung Flu. Meaning he exposed dozens to hundreds of kids (and by extension, their families...and their friends, and their kids, and so on) to Kung Flu too. For one infected teacher. That's common sense breaking out.
----------
Word is UC Berzerkely is doing the same thing, and UCIrvine may follow, which will domino the entire UC/CSU systems into closing, which will bring unbearable pressure on the public K-12 schools, which will drag along the parochial and private schools too, so I guesstimate in a matter of a week or three, all schools in Califrutopia will be closed.
Which will mean a lot of parents, including all single ones, will need to stay home, which will snowball into any non-essential business closing soon.
Gasoline, food, drugstores, probably stay open.
Police, fire, EMS, hospitals, garbage collection; same-same.
Everybody else: you're pretty much optional.
Banks will go to drive-up tellers only, or ATM and online banking, and lock their doors to walk-ins, or limit it to one person at a time, or something similar, consistent with requirements of federal banking laws.
And all this is without anyone issuing a single official order.
----------
So, how are your stocks of canned goods and staple foods looking?
-----------
I suggested if there are mandatory quarantines, TPTB might look into suspending all rent/lease/mortgage payments for the duration, to be caught up at a later date, while people are out of work because of said quarantine. (I also said that was too sensible, so that our political would-be overlords would probably fall over themselves not to be that smart right off.) Well, look what Italy has done right after their PM shut the entire country down. And BTW, I'd like to thank Prime Minister Conte for reading this blog.
----------
In light of these developments, I spoke with a few co-workers about them, to gauge their reactions.
This is the average look I received in response:
Hand to God on this.
"I want to travel."
"It's just like the flu."
"I hear flights are cheap now."
"I heard it's just like the flu."
"I doubt we'll ever see a quarantine like in Italy."
"Isn't it just like the flu?"
No, really. Direct quotes, verbatim, every one.
They know about coronavirus. Like, that it exists. And we had two non-cases, that turned into a clown show when they hit the front door. But the idea that it's probably already walking in the door, and that patients (or even staff member) could already be asymptomatic carriers in the hospital or ER was roughly akin to suggesting that they should fly home on a rainbow-colored unicorn powered by magical pixie dust.
I swear, some people's kids...
Has ANYONE been able to locate on the ground info as to whats actually happening in china now that they've claimed "under control"? I get a bunch of bullshit when trying to filter through the crap the search engines are delivering and haven't seen any chatter on the blogs & comments.
ReplyDeleteTo hear that coming from healthcare professionals only reinforces my opinion that the NASA scientists who are searching for intelligent life in the universe ought to turn their telescopes 180 degrees and look for it on this planet. The stupid is strong in them.
ReplyDeleteIt is definitely the same in the general population. I was leaving a Wallyworld this morning (after once again not finding any hand sanitizer...I'm guessing that's going to be as plentiful as genuine silver dollars in pocket change), and some numbnuts millenial (about 25 years old) was telling his mother, "It's just like the flu." Yeah, right, that's why Italy is closed, why our Surgeon General says that 100 million of us are likely to get it, and China quarantined 700 million people (1/2 of their population)...all for shits and giggles, because "it's just like the flu." Fucking moron.
Thanks, Aesop, for all of your advice and (entertaining) commentary on this and multiple other subjects. I hope and pray that you don't have the Kung Flu, and that you remain healthy throughout the ordeal that is coming. At least you'll make a lot of OT. :>)
Oh, and speaking of "Kung Flu," I've used that term in emails and other messages a lot. Still waiting for the woke folks on my list to get their panties in a wad about it, but nothing yet. Perhaps the light bulb is going on about what we're in for, and the PC bullshit is leaving their bodies (for a while)?
Continuing to stock up...Sam's in San Antonio is now rationing water to 2 cases per account per day, down from 5 on Saturday and no limits - EVER - before that. TP largely gone, ditto for paper towels and nitrile gloves (got some more of each).
@Bee Ess:
ReplyDeleteYour screen name was my reaction to seeing Commandante Xi announcing this. Notice how he's in a largely deserted room, and when outside for a photo op it was largely deserted...and at all times he was masked. It isn't gone. They quarantined 700 million people, large numbers of whom HAD to have it (else why quarantine them, eh?)...so did Aesop's flying unicorn crap out a cure to all of those people? I'm thinking that it probably didn't, and that (once again) the Chinese Communist Party is lying to the entire world (cue Gomer Pyle).
Oh, and IF they're largely done with it, that rather strongly suggests that they had a cure or vaccine (or both) before this started, which is to say BEFORE THEY STARTED IT. Think about the implications of that...including that they're going to cut off all medical and medical-related supplies if we start squawking about it.
If it's "just the flu, bro" then WHY TF are they putting soldiers on the streets? Literally have tanks on Italian streets.
ReplyDeleteIf you stock up on canned food and toiletries and it is just the flu then you've got some cans of food and toiletries.
If you don't stock up on canned food and toiletries and it is more than just the flu then you're f***ked
Texan, what do you want to bet Xi was nowhere near Wuhan?
ReplyDeleteits no muddaphuccin coinkydink that the last 3 letters in the word PROBLEMS, are EMS.fuck people. hope they die.
ReplyDeleteCuomo is putting New Rochelle NY in containment. He activated the gaurd. Mafs is hard but not that hard but still the average normie is plug full of tobacco, booze, opiates, ssri's, gmos, sugar and on and on. Their cognitive abilities are suspect on a good day, this is not a good day. Thanks for your work on this.
ReplyDeleteIf you want some insight for how this shit is ‘community spread’ I have a tale for you.
ReplyDeleteWoman and her kids go to the Dr office. Seems a Dr was at that facility and he not too soon after tested positive for KungFlu. Woman and kids get the word -14 day self-quarantine. However, hubby is free to go to work since he wasn’t at the facility. Now hubby is a reasonably educated and nice fellow but it turns out he is dumber than a box of rocks. Of course he goes to work. Happens to mention to the boss that his family, sans him, is on 14 day self quarantine. The boss, being sufficiently brighter, calls the safety/medical cats and long story short hubby is sent home too. That should not be the end of the story..but of course it is.
No one is tracking whom hubby interacted with, what areas of the site he visited so they can be evacuated and sanitized, or who those he interacted with have interacted with other employees. Corporate is putting out messages but not a peep about this. I only know through the grapevine (yes, my sources are highly trustworthy.. and I’m not far enough down the grapevine to feel the least bit good about this). Which of course begs the question.. how many more of these situations are there just where I work let alone the rest of corporate America?
I’m starting to really realize that Top Men® are likely more dangerous than KungFlu.
Wife is a medical professional in an excellent med center in medium sized US city. Her co-workers have had basically the same responses that Aesop listed. Main issue is to not "miss spring break". This med center has already had one confirmed KungFlu case that is NOT associated with travel. Three other confirmed cases in metro area. The university associated with the med center is shut down until the end of March because some undefined number of students returning from spring break (was last week) have had "contact" with known KungFlu infected people.
ReplyDelete168 newly dead in Italy since Monday. Amazing to watch what Aesop says come to pass after a short time. Not gonna get any better anytime soon. Might need to make one more trip to the store tomorrow, as I'm thinking my stash isn't actually big enough.
ReplyDeleteIt never quite is, went to publix yesterday afternoon it was very busy for a Tuesday, I have a sense that hive mind is catching on even if it has not quite done so consciously, say keep at it as long as it is safe to do so because I believe that when the shelves empty and supplies are gone it will be so for a long time if not forever
DeleteThank you for your posts on what is going on at your hospital. I've been sending them to my daughter who started her first job as an RN at a smaller regional hospital SE of the Kansas City metro area last summer. She texted me from work today. They had 2 "presumptive positives" in the ER last Friday which was an off day for her, although she worked on Saturday. This was not an announcement, she just asked her boss if they had anything to be concerned about since they just started stepping up preps for a future "Shit Storm" today. No word on where these two "presumptives" are. We assume they are in self quarantine. The media only has word on another positive on the Kansas side admitted to KU Med Center in Kansas City, Ks and one in St. Louis. This is probably happening everywhere. I will keep all the healthcare workers in my prayers. I suppose all I can do is try to keep myself from getting sick so she doesn't have me to worry about. I wish I could keep from worrying about her. Oh, and their masks are being rationed, since they have a shortage of them.
ReplyDeleteHad stuff to do outside the house today, so I hit costco thinking to see how bad it was. Not many shoppers, felt like 4pm on a weekday (which it was). 2 ladies wiping down carts with sanitizer before pushing them to shoppers. Several employees wiping freezer door handles and assorted other "touch points".
ReplyDeleteNo TP at all. only a few packs of Kirkland paper towel. Couple boxes of baby wipes. no bleach, wipes, or spray. OTC meds were orderly but seemed real thin, like they'd spread out the product. Lots of perishables. Only a few bags of rice. LOTS of flour, sugar, salt, and oils.
I made a pass thru and filled my cart +2 ft high with more food for the kids.
Then I hit my favorite toy store, chatted with EMT working there. Lots more probable cases than being reported.
I hit a Walgreens earlier in the day. No masks, sanitizer, alcohol, wipes, etc. Lice meds were on sale so I got some. Also dental repair stuff. And the OTC meds that I wanted that Costco and the grocery store don't carry. Picked up some supplies for the first aid bag.
Went to the Dr to get a couple things refilled, and she was completely clueless about current events. I spent about an hour filling her in, showing her the math. Turns out, one of the Egypt tour cases here in Houston had WALKED INTO THE MEDICAL GROUP'S other suite in the building. If I'd known that, I'd have picked a different office. (they went up to the second floor and never entered the first floor suite where I was.) The group has 2 Docs in quarantine (self). Given that, you'd think she'd have at least flipped thru a couple of news sites.... she did write me extended refills on the meds.
Then later, getting my 'scrip at the pharmacy inside our big chain grocery, I walked around a bit. Paper aisle was EMPTY. No TP at all, and only a few leftover paper towel rolls out of the packages. Lots of empty shelves in random places. NO oatmeal at all. Bread and cereal, veg and fruit, perishables all in abundance so I filled in some small gaps. I was already there and exposed so might as well. I did limit touching and wiped the cart and my hands.
Pharmacy tech claimed no shortages ("other than the one blood pressure med"- whatever that meant) and tech wasn't worried as the chain "has a whole warehouse full, and buys whole production runs." I hope he's right.
Seems that we had a surgeon return from a trip to Italy and basically walk right into the operating room. Management pulled him out as soon as they heard, possibly mid-procedure, and now we've got about 19 staff on self quarantine there. Not geniuses. Not by a long shot.
Oh, and our school district just asked parents to voluntarily fill out a 14 day travel history for each family and child.
This is gonna suck. Really hard. Keep at it Aesop,
nick
Nice article, and the conclusions are hard to argue with. This will impact everyone. Thankfully I am an island and am not impacted by any other people or systems.
ReplyDeleteOh . . . wait . . .
interesting article recommending TPTB to start acting now or we are f’ed. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
ReplyDeleteI'm going to ask a question. I'd rather ride a bus full of pink hats than ask it because it's probably a simple one but I can't figure it out.
ReplyDeleteYou direct our attention to John Mosby's site on Patron. I've tried looking at him there before and again at your recommendation. All I get is a point asking if I'm older than 18. I've never been able to go any further. What am I doing wrong?
Please be kind with your response as I don't really want to be bludgeoned by a jujitsu word master.
That was supposed to be in jest.
Thanks again for your posts. You're informative and add humor to my day.
You can use mouse pointer and the right sidebar to scroll through and read all the grayed-out text, over or under the block-box, at least on a PC or laptop. (IDK about on smartphone screens.)If they didn't want people to do that, they wouldn't have built it that way.
ReplyDeleteI'll try again to figure it out. Using a IPad.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the quick response.
Everyone stay safe out there!!!!!
UK NHS is claiming it won't go down like Italy, because NHS is a National system with better command and control/oversight than Italy's regional system.
ReplyDeleteAnd this just in UK gov is trying to trace people who were in contact with an infected person...wait for it...the infected person is the UK health minister!
ReplyDeleteSo basically UK is saying that it will not happen there because not Italians.
ReplyDeleteYou need to train to reach this level of retarded.
Very good article by Mosby.
ReplyDeleteI am a very big believer in actions versus words.
I started watching this when it first appeared in mid December.
On Jan 25th, When China ordered the lockdown of Hubei, I knew it wasnt just the flu. I knew what they were doing. They were gonna lock down the uninfected in their homes, until all the infected were put down and incinerated.
It didn't take long to find out what exactly freaked them out. It was when the first batch of recovered started getting reinfected and dying.
Before the first case escaped China, I knew this wasn't "just the flu".
20 year old back from Italy is case number 2 in Tulsa so it doubled here in a week with no related contact. Still not sure where case 1 came from.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/oklahoma-s-first-confirmed-case-of-coronavirus-is-a-tulsa/article_9434fd9b-d6c5-5dd1-982d-5b43c4607738.html
DeleteSemi-rural midwestern clinic has patient show up for routine procedure. After 3 levels of verbal and written screening about Kung-Flu she waits until end of procedure to mention she's been out of the country and has symptoms. Staff calls county health department per protocol and is told to have patient drive 70 miles to appropriate intake hospital for testing. Did she? No one knows. Entire clinic of 4 doctors, 3 NP, a dozen+ staff possibly exposed-literally everyone who works there. No quarantine as of yet-still seeing patients. Staff beyond pissed at typhoid mary and violence suggested only half jokingly. This globetrotting bitch has been symptomatic for a week or more and has conservatively exposed hundreds of people directly and thousands indirectly by this point. The kicker? She's a "healthcare professional".
ReplyDeleteThe only hope at stopping this in the U.S. was lost months ago. We should have sealed the borders, stopped international travel, deported foreign nationals and quarantined any incoming US citizens for 90 days. Now we're fucked. Everyone has already been exposed by now or will be soon at this point. It's the Kung-Flu Boogaloo 2020 and we're all going to the dance whether we want to or not.
In the computer biz, we have some fundamental standards: All new software is developed on the Development Server; each new version is unique, in that DevVer001 remains untouched, a copy is made and it's relabeled as DevVer002 and modified, then ver002 is copied and it's hacked into ver003 and so on. The Development Server is backed up religiously, both incremental and full backups, at a minimum daily, and usually in real time, to a backup Development Server.
ReplyDeleteWhen the software is judged ready for testing a copy of the last dev version is copied to the #1 Test Server and testing begins on TestVer001. Any changes are made by copying TestVer001, relabeling it TestVer002, and so on.
It is absolutely, positively sancrosant under penalty of immediate dismissal that no one, for any reason, makes any changes to a previous version, it is ALWAYS copied and relabeled as a newer version before ANY changes, nomatter how small or insignificant they may be. There must always be a pure previous version. No exceptions.
When it's judged the tested version is ready for prime time, it's copied to #2 Test Server and testing continues.
When everyone is sure the fully tested version is absolutely ready for prime time it's moved to #3 Test Server and, with all hands on deck, awake and alert, the Production Server(s) are "idled in gear" and #3 Test Server(s) takes their place while EVERYONE studies what's happening. This may go on for days, sometimes weeks. Absolutely nothing changes on the Production Server(s), they're hot, idle and ready to go in milliseconds.
When it's decided that TestVerXXX is absolutely ready for prime time, it's copied to the Backup Production Servers and they assume full Production Server duties. Again, days or weeks pass while everyone watches and studies.
If bugs are found, the *new* production version is copied back as a New Test Version to the #3 Test Server, maybe all the way back to the Development Server, and analysis and fixes ensue.
When everything is Absolutely All Set for Prime Time, the process is repeated. If successful after X days/weeks of "in production usage" with no problems, the in-production version on the Production Servers is copied to a spare server, and the fully tested *new* production version is copied to the Production Server(s) and placed into production use.
The Production Servers are locally mirrored for fail-over, meaning if one fails another in the same rack or adjacent rack takes over seamlessly, and ideally, there is a fully mirrored fail-over SET of Production Servers at a remote location which are sharing the load and sized and supported to operate the entire load if necessary.
The Production Servers are backed up religiously at least daily, and usually in real time, to a set of hot Secondary Prodution Servers.
What we're now discovering is that America has only 1 Production Server, the software on it has never been tested, there is no mirrored fail-over server, there is no documentation on any changes that have been made to the in-production version, no backups have ever been made and the 800 number for tech support has been disconnected.
I hate reading comments so forgive me if this is redundant, I live about four hours from Atlanta and I've been reading articles stating that they are only closing the schools for one day for disinfectant. Correct me if I'm wrong Aesop, but if this has a 2-14 maybe even 28 asymptomatic incubation. Which you are still infectious. Doesn't closing the school for 1-day do basically fuck all nothing? If a possible 150 kids got exposed and they're asymptomatic for up to 28 days, closing the school for one day is a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound. What are your thoughts, opinions?
ReplyDeleteWife and I had a discussion the other night as to whether to schedule her trip to see family. Both our concerns were air travel is just a petri dish with wings. No decision but its likely the trip will be delayed or pass over this year.
ReplyDelete@Deathray:
ReplyDeleteHad the same as you re MG I copied the link unto another browser (I have 4 on a PC)and that did it. Check also if you have a private window on your browser that might work too. I didn't test that.
Anonymous four hours from Atlanta. I live 30 mins west of Atlanta, been here my whole life. I'm guessing Atlanta is gonna win the race to which American city is fucked first. A teacher exposed several classes of kids a few days ago, and those 80 odd kids are currently spreading all throughout the diversity population, which will start blowing up in about a month.
ReplyDeleteAesop....
I been pointing out the folly of these "It's just the flu" fucks who thought because the initial infection death rate was low that all was peachy, that if the reports I read back in early January out of Wuhan were true, that the recovered still had the virus, were not immune, and were getting reinfected and dying within hours?
\
Lookie what I found:
Wuhan increases patient quarantine to 28 days, since lots of patients are testing positive again after 14 days period.
Here is a link to the source, its in Mandarin.
http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/03/06/700265.html
That right there is what scares me about this, and takes this up several levels beyond "It's just the flu" into game over territory. If recovery does not confer immunity, then that kinda adds some weight to those HIV inserts everyone has talked about.
The last concert I saw before heading out to USN bootcamp in 1985, was BOC. I wasnt a huge fan and only went because tickets were cheap and this chic I was dating wanted to go. I was surprised at how well BOC pulled off the sound at this outdoor venue.
Dont fear the Reaper.
Thanks,
ReplyDeleteI go to the Mountain Guerilla Blogspot and I get the "public service" announcement for 18+ and older.
I click on it and nothing opens.
Any answers for this technically unsavy one?
Siterep from White mountains of AZ.
ReplyDeleteBasics have been coming and going for last 3 or 4 weeks...full...low...full...low. At least some people started paying attention early. Not a lot of real "empties" as of a couple of days ago. We're old, so we are going to ground. Community spread 130 miles away in Phoenix metro...none here but no testing either. Lots of 'normalcy bias'...ads for little league try out on the radio, small town get-togethers of various sorts. Wife went to Dr. office yesterday cause she had to...no precautions visible...Dr. pushing non-urgent/maintenance tests you would do at the hospital. Don't understand that one 'cause I saw him 3 weeks ago and asked his opinion about Wuflu. Literally the first 2 words out of his mouth were 'people die' and then he went on from there.
@175jfs said...
ReplyDeleteCheck previous comments, Aesop answered and so did I.
Great stuff, I'm sending it all around and trying to calmly convince the "JTF,B" crowd that it's probably not JTF...long reads are HARD for people.
ReplyDeleteGod Bless us, Everyone!
Dollar Store shelves are empty. Chinese crap dries up quickly!
In Canada 97 cases this morning out of 38 millions so we're right behind you... Shelves are full everywhere, everyone completely asleep. I have told 15 persons about this blog and PP 3 weeks ago, gave them all the links plus plenty of additional info in a condensed format only 1 took it seriously. I have supplies for 3-4 months and am buying plenty more. I've been wiping my grocery cart(not wearing gloves yet)and leaving 2 Lysol wipes laid on the handle while I shop sort of desinfecting my hands while I'm driving it around. Is it a bad idea considering chemicals are in contact with my skin for 30 minutes or so ? Welcoming all answers. Thanks.
ReplyDelete"I Live in Italy’s “Orange Zone”: What it’s Like Inside the Lockdown" ...
ReplyDelete"But so far, the most critical measure has been shutting down schools. While there are no children or young adults in critical condition, it’s widely suspect they may help spread Covid-19 around as asymptomatic carriers; hence the precautionary measure."...
"There are countless desperate attempts to push both corporations (including my booming evil empire) and individual citizens deeper into debt to goose GDP figures: just today I got in my mailbox an offer for an unsecured corporate loan repayable over 84 months and yesterday another for a mortgage at 0.48% plus Euribor-12. This tells me exactly where priorities stand at the moment"
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/11/i-live-in-italys-orange-zone-what-its-like-inside-the-lockdown/
The future for the globalists and jet setters is looking glum as at current rate you'll be lucky to be allowed to leave your state without a ninety day quarantine much less your nation.
ReplyDeleteAlso the economy is going to go belly up like a dead goldfish in a bowl if this thing drags on for nay length of time.
@Deathray, 175jfs
ReplyDeleteRe: the Mountain Guerilla Blogspot 18+ and older announcement that won't go away when you click on it:
I suspect it works with some browsers and not others, also what firewalls may be in place and what security / anti-virus software may be running in the background.
When I get this I have been able to right click the mouse and click on "Select All", then open up notepad and right click the mouse and "Paste" the text into Notepad and read the text there.
(There may also be other ad related text and big empty space where graphics stuff was).
That may be a work-around if nothing else works.
Hey, if it's stupid but it works...
re: Atlanta
ReplyDeleteThe shit show for the Fulton County School System has just begun. 2 day quarantine for the county. The school where the teacher taught and COLLAPSED is closed until (i think) the 27th. They are decontaminating the entire district, then letting the little plague-bringers back in, just in case all the familial units haven't been infected yet.
MAYBE 3 in 10 people i have talked to this week shared my concerns. NONE of them shared the level of concern. the recognition of the pending economic situation was also minimal at best. the only people that seem to be on the same page as me are my dad and stepmother, but they are way over in arkansas.
@Marina
ReplyDeleteWipe down the places you touch to start your shopping (door handles, cart handles) and then put the wipes in a zip-lock bag to use again when you check out (touch screen, pen or stylus to click on button or sign your name on touchscreen).
Or wear vinyl or nitrile or latex (if not allergic to latex) gloves all the time from your car until you you get back in your car after you are done shopping and tell people you have a skin problem on your hands if people look at you weird and ask. Saw several cashiers wearing the gloves at Wal-Mart and Meijers stores here in Michigan.
@ Wendy. I'm already wiping my cart. I have a bunch of nitrile gloves I'm just not in a hurry to wear them for now stricly because I prefer of course free hands. In the meantime I've bben laying 2 Lysol wipes on the handle the whole time I'm shopping. My question was in regards to chemicals in direct contact for 30-45 minutes on my hands for every store I visit vs a regular wipe lasting a few seconds.
ReplyDeleteSumpin' don't add up.
ReplyDelete"At a news conference Inslee also said the state is preparing for many more cases than have been reported, potentially tens of thousands, based on estimates of the spread of the disease.
'If we assume there are 1,000 or more people who have the virus today....the number of people who are infected will double in five to eight days,' Inslee said.
'If you do the math, it gets very disturbing.'"
That's WA state.
I've done the math, using US wide numbers, and it's doubling ever THREE days. Look at the chart here- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ scroll down to the Total Cases in the US graph. Hover over the days to see the totals. Pick any day, move 3 to the right, and see for yourself. Florida doubled right on time too. If WA is planning based on 5-8 days for doubling, they're in for a hell of a surprise.
Anecdote for today. Under the impetus of getting any medical issues cleared up before this hits, I went to the Dr yesterday, which I commented on before. Today I went for the blood draw. Phlebotomist shares the lobby with the office that had a confirmed patient walk in, with 2 Drs currently in quarantine. I asked her if she was concerned about having a coronavirus patient walk in. Her answer? "Coronavirus been everywhere forever. Media be blowin' this out of proportion. You don't see US wearin' masks do you?" Now I'm fucked. NO WAY is someone with that attitude being careful about protocols. NO WAY. It's been over a week, and the patient didn't enter the lab/draw area that I know, but did enter the shared lobby. I was careful not to touch anything, and wasn't there long, and used the supplied hand sanitizer properly and copiously, but I feel dirty. If I'd understood that the draw was going to be on the second floor, adjacent to the office with a KNOWN infected, I'd have passed. I got my meds yesterday without the bloodwork.
Moral of the story, I shouldn't have left the issue this long. I should have been more inquisitive about exactly what they were asking me to do and why. I should have PASSED on the bloodwork. Time is PAST for going out into this. TPTB don't have a handle on it, even people who should know better, don't. And it's doubling every 3 days. In 30 days it'll be 1,225,000 cases here unless the rate slows. In 15 days it will be 38,000. in 9 it will be 9600. People are going to lose their minds. TPTB are going to be outside their OODA loop and responding blindly too little and too late.
you are on your own, no one is coming to save you.
nick
Houston Rodeo just cancelled, that is a $1 billion dollar hit to the Houston economy.
ReplyDeleteOur medical group gets its supplies from McKesson. We have just been notified that all our supplies - iv fluids, IV sets and supplies, alcohol swabs, some chemotherapy drugs and antibiotics are now "allocated". We have a tele-meeting with them this Friday to see what this means.
We are asking patients to self screen but already some have sneaked in our back (staff) entrances, which the fire marshal has told us has to be unlocked, during business hours because Special Snowflakes must get theirs!
2nd and 3rd order effects indeed.
Also, spent time on the phone with a United rep today. United is waiving change fees on any travel you are likely to have booked for Spring Break. Just cancel and get credit or refund depending on fare class. RE-book before the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteShe was a LMI and we had a great chat. She's getting ready to ride it out, and her kids. She already works from home and is stocked up. She didn't have any insights into when they might lock down air travel, and did spot check a flight or two to see what loads were like. The flights weren't sold out, but they weren't empty either. Lots of people are going to travel domestically this coming week despite the risks. Hell, my wife's business partner is going to Hawaii- couldn't resist the bargain fare. Never thought to consider WHY the planes were empty and fares so low... he floats thru life anyway, and is NOT prepared. I imagine he'll be stuck there for the duration, depending on doubling rate and when the lockdown comes.
Don't be like the sheep. Be like the hermit in the cave on the hill.
nick
vigilantcitizen:
ReplyDeleteI been pointing out the folly of these "It's just the flu" fucks who thought because the initial infection death rate was low that all was peachy, that if the reports I read back in early January out of Wuhan were true, that the recovered still had the virus, were not immune, and were getting reinfected and dying within hours?
Lookie what I found:
Wuhan increases patient quarantine to 28 days, since lots of patients are testing positive again after 14 days period.
We're somewhere between guessing and hypothesizing that these are people who didn't actually finish recovering, maybe in the hellhole that Wuhan became they tested negative a time or two and were pushed out of the hospital. A number of "reinfection" cases, especially when treated with antivirals that stopped after leaving, appear to be people who didn't finish clearing the virus.
We can say that we know for a fact SARS-CoV-2 does result in "seroconversion", the production of antibodies, based on the Duke Singapore antibody test they used to connect two clusters, and a German study in preprint that observed this in nine mild cases they tested the hell out of (volunteers from the ex-PRC woman visiting for training).
And that above study also provided more information about how long it takes to clear in these mild cases, so assume someone is asymptomatic or close enough, especially as detectable by the PRC authorities, 14 days with infection taking hold somewhere early in them doesn't get you past the clearing the virus stage.
We've got lots to learn about this virus, lessons that will be written in blood.
nick flandrey:
ReplyDeleteSumpin' don't add up.
[...]
"'If we assume there are 1,000 or more people who have the virus today....the number of people who are infected will double in five to eight days,' Inslee said.
'If you do the math, it gets very disturbing.'"
That's WA state.
I've done the math, using US wide numbers, and it's doubling ever THREE days. Look at the chart here- scroll down to the Total Cases in the US graph. Hover over the days to see the totals. Pick any day, move 3 to the right, and see for yourself....
There's an explanation for what we're seeing right this moment:
Something I recently covered in the epidemiology book I'm reading is being reified by the sudden bouts of testing that result in false impressions of incidence vs. prevalence.
Prevalence is how many in the population have the disease at a point in time, is especially useful for chronic, endemic diseases, TB if you want an infectious one.
The incidence rate is is the most direct method of calculating risk. The numerator [top part of a fraction] in the incidence rate is the number of new cases that occur during a specific period of time. The denominator is the sum of total amount of time during which any individual in the population was a risk. The incidence rate measure the frequency with which new cases occur in the population and expressed the risk or probability of illness in a population over a given period of time.
The term attack rate is often used instead of incidence rate in infectious diseases....
Note that with a naive population, almost all the population is at risk, this changes as it sweeps through, and those who've got it, or recovered from it, are no longer at risk, no longer in the denominator.
Imagine that the prevalence right now is 10%. After the FDA busted open the CDC testing blockade, for a while a continually increasing number of people are going to get tested. The numbers of cases is going to skyrocket from the CDC's "I see nothing! I hear nothing! I know nothing!" very low numbers.
Since the population wasn't previously tested, people like us can't without a lot of work calculate a useful attack rate for a while, until there's been enough testing to get a feel for the prevalence. We're suddenly finding cases that were already there, which we already made an educated guess were so, "Virons are everywhere!"
Girlfriend is an MD. 2nd-hand experience from observing her is that the culture, drilled in at least from the beginning of residency, includes an expectation that that doctors show up for work no matter what.
ReplyDeleteSick? 3 feet of snow on the roads and not a snowplow in sight? Lost a leg? Crippling spinal injury? House burned down? TFB you fucking pussy, skip the excuses and do your job. In the 12+ years we've been together, the number of unscheduled days off she's taken add up to a grand total of zero.
This reflexive thinking may even help explain the boggling ignorance. "Apocalypse schmockalips, I'll be at work regardless, so why waste precious headspace wondering about the price of tea in Wuhan?"
I should also have added that, from what I've seen, docs are trained to ruthlessly disregard all questions that they don't perceive to impact their decision-making process. No time for idle curiosity, back to work!
ReplyDeleteCome to think of it, we had a mild cough and sore throat run through the household for a few days last week. Even I've been sufficiently conditioned that it didn't even cross my mind to suggest she stay home just in case.
Both of my older brothers are retired navy Captains. One submarine co. the other a squadron commander on carriers. BOTH have told me it's just the flu. The airdale reiterated that statement 1 day ago. By the way his retirement job is in the intel community. I feel SOOOOO safe because my brothers tell me so.
ReplyDeleteHow does Johns Hopkins CSSE, et al. (or any other popular reporting organization) get information about who has recovered? The numbers in many countries as to who has "recovered" look quite low.
ReplyDeleteThis "It's just the flu" stuff is ignorant whistling in the dark, but I've seen even some people I respect start chanting it. The Coronaviridae are not in the same genus, family, class, order, OR EVEN PHYLUM, as the flu viruses (Orthomyxoviridae). As such, the RNA and the proteins coded for, the binding sites on host cells, and so much are all different between coronaviruses and flu viruses. I'm not an M. D., but I'm on staff for one of the largest University health science centers in the US, and I use the UCSC Genome Browser for research purposes all the time.
ReplyDeleteItaly: In an alarming development, Dr Nattino said younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions.
ReplyDeleteHe added: “The last days are showing a younger population involved as if the elderly and weaker part of the population crashed early and now younger patients, having exhausted their physiological reserves, come to overcrowded, overwhelmed hospitals with little resources left.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html
A California doctor says three men he knows struck down with coronavirus are all in intensive care and are as young as 40 - contradicting claims that the disease only impacts the elderly.
ReplyDeleteDr Sam Fink, who is based in the affluent town of Tarzana, began treating two of the men following their return home from a ski trip to Northern Italy late last month. Dr. Fink is friends with a third patient from the trip, who is also now in ICU battling against the virus.
'I have never seen anything like this,' Dr Fink told DailyMail.com on Tuesday.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8098831/Coronavirus-doctor-reveals-patients-intensive-care-young-40.html
'These people who are in the hospital are generally young. Forty, fifty, sixty. These are not elderly people. There are three people who are now in the ICU.
Last 2 posts are from the Description section of tonight's Peak Prosperity update.
ReplyDelete"contradicting claims that the disease only impacts the elderly."
ReplyDelete---this is gaslighting. I don't know WHY, and I've seen it in another headline today. I've been watching this thing since the beginning and no one has ever said that (unless in the MSM, which other than UK DailyMail, I have zero exposure to. Certainly no one in the alt-media ever said that.
n
The idea floating around in the general population that's been dismissive of the corona is that it's only the flu and only affects the elderly and what does the general population reads but MSM ?
ReplyDeleteGet out more, nick.
ReplyDeleteThe clowns in every FakeNews outlet have been honking the "it only affects the elderly" horn non-stop since January/early February.
No sh!t? How do they square that with the young doctors in China? Or the pictures of the sick people in the holding pens xxxxxxxx temporary hospitals?
ReplyDeleteNever mind, I bet they don't even know there are twitter vids they could watch and see for themselves.
Who's got the blood pressure meds to watch the MSM anyway?
Props to anyone who can sit thru that nonsense in the interest of opppo research...
n
Couple of things. I read a Facebook post of an Italian doctor. His theory that older patients succumbed faster to the virus, skewing the numbers. Now, he was seeing younger and younger patients dying; it just took longer for the virus to chew through their greater physical resiliency. But it chewed through none the less.
ReplyDeleteSecond, on bioweapon. Does this thing have a SARS chassis, with Tuberculosis and HIV accessories? Still unclear, but if it does, there might not be any "recoveries". If the respiratory failure doesn't get you, the immune system degradation will. That sounds pretty bioweapon to me.
Just saw marina's post. Hers better. Thanks marina!
Delete