{h/t to Vinny (Ex-Dissident) @ Vinny's Rants for catching this...}
I have referred to the Wikipedia Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa page for numbers since mid-July, because they've been maintaining it circumspectly, it's accessible, and I'm lazy.
They generally post the WHO .pdf updates that come out every 2-5 days, and usually with a day or so, so I don't have to wade through .pdf hell trying to get the simple info.
I fact, I was using the posted number there when I was writing the "Number Crunching" post yesterday, and I hadn't looked at it today.
Apparently, someone seems to have found whatever was keeping the needle stuck.
To wit:
24 Oct 2014 12,008 cases 5,078 deaths
19 Oct 2014 9,936 cases 4,877 deaths
17 Oct 2014 9,693 cases 4,811 deaths
2000 new cases in the last FIVE days?!!
Sweet blazing hell! If you're in Africa, RUN FOR YOUR LIFE!
Look at the chart on the page; it hasn't increased by 2000 cases in the last 3 weeks.
Earlier today, I was about to note that I missed a WaPo news report a couple weeks back that related the Pentagon has revised their timetable for completing the 1700 beds; it's now going to take until early December, rather than mid-November, i.e. another 2-3 weeks.
I was going to note how far behind they'd be when they finally get to December.
But now, that whole post is pointless.
Those 1700 beds just became obsolete between last Sunday and last Friday morning.
And it's taking us 9 weeks to make 1700 beds' worth of facilities.
Ebola is making 400 new patients per day.
For the love of God, get our troops the hell out of there right fucking now!
Just tell them to drop their shit where it is, grab their duffel bag, and be on the runway ready to go in 5 minutes, fly in, pick them up, and just GO!
I have no clue what caused the uptick: they got religion, they found a box full of casualty reports next to Hillary Clinton's Whitewater files, somebody passed 4th grade, whatever...I dunno.
But those numbers are a nuclear launch of this epidemic, and it's going to eat everything in its path at this point if they're even the usual 1/3 of legit they've supposedly been.
If we're actually at triple those numbers, we just went from Double #13 to #15 (out of 33), meaning we're now 18 doubles away from worldwide pandemic, and we're there a month earlier than my guesstimates indicated (forget CDC and WHO projections, they're barely close to where we thought we were).
And people there, starting with the ones in the know, are going to start getting the hell out of there any way they can, and going any place they can get.
Personally, I feel like Steve McQueen at the end of The Sand Pebbles:
"What happened? What the hell HAPPENED?"
Napalm. Sorry, but that's where we as a species are going. This is an extinction level event. s f
ReplyDeleteWe have to wall in Africa and let it burn out.
ReplyDeleteAt least then we can help with the reconstruction.
Otherwise its;
Homo sapiens,
RIP
Political correctness killed them all.
As someone who frequently contributes to the Wikipedia article, you should know that the 12k number basically amounts to Liberia "catching up" in its reporting, not a sudden surge in new cases.
ReplyDelete(That said, I'm of the firm opinion that half of all cases, or more, in the boonies are unreported or deaths misattributed to something else. IOW, I think actual cases are around 25,000 right now.)
I've assumed they were off, for a growing cacophony of reasons, all bad.
ReplyDeleteBut to have them jump the number that much that fast, and knowing they're still underwhelmingly reported even now, this thing has totally jumped the shark.
Some rough math:
ReplyDeleteAssuming a doubling time of 21 days for all cases, that gives us a daily rate of increase of about
e^(ln(2)/21)
or about 3.36% per day.
1.033557783^5 gives us an increase of ~17.9% in 5 days
Against a baseline of 9,936 5 days ago in the data series, that puts us at 11,719 - so yeah, just about what you'd expect.
Crazy- 2,000 more cases in 5 days but keep in mind 21 days the cases will have increased by 10,000. Assuming the data is correct.
Project this out even further- about 70,000 reported cases by Christmas.
Scary stuff.
I am contemplating writing to the governors in NY and NJ. Wouldn't waste my breath on the feds, but at least these 2 tried to institute some small measure of sanity. Has anyone here wrote to your governor? Another part of me says: save your breath.
ReplyDeleteAll those cases were in Liberia. The WHO said that the last 2 reports were likely bogus and adjusted the rate this week, so this likely represents 2 or 3 weeks worth. Which should provide only cold comfort to those in country.
ReplyDeleteDoc Grouch,
ReplyDeleteI think we all get that Liberia has been under-reporting and that these numbers show the same trend that was seen prior to the loss in Liberia's reporting ability. Nevertheless, the visual is something else entirely...that gets you, on the emotional level.
I was waiting for the updated Liberia report, because as I noted in yesterday's post, they "forgot" to send it in on time.
ReplyDeleteKnowing the numbers are bogus, and even knowing they may just have decided to "catch up" on them a bit, seeing them trendlike that underlines that this isn't going to be fought or won there.
That bus left the station last MAY.
And it still points out that having 3000 people there to build 1700 beds is pointless, if a simple accounting error is going to wipe out 9 weeks of work in a week.
And they won't even finish until early December, and there's nobody to staff any of those beds!
We so need to get them the hell out, 5 minutes ago.
Yup. Who will tell our generals to get them out before we need to find them 3000 ICU beds? Obama may yet surpass every other crackpot commie that came before him.
ReplyDeleteHow long until Ebola flares in one of the third world big city/slums outside of Africa?
ReplyDeleteWas kind of watching the tee vee as I'm making out bills for customers-and one of the bleach blondes on CNN or Fox was reporting that the state Dept. has agreed to treat Ebola patients from other countries here-that's a huge WTF?
How come we haven't heard from the Ebola czar?
How are the morons in charge in DC going to spin the reason for treating Ebola patients here?
The Ebolamania is getting worse by the day- so is the spin.
How can Ebola nurse II be out of the BL-4 facility when those being "monitored" in NE Ohio haven't even hit their 21 days yet?
Maybe nurse MeMe is a distraction?
If I had a place in the mountains-I would be packing my shit right now-just to have it ready to go at a moment's notice.
I agree it's time for all the military to get out-as in be on a plane by midnight tonight.
As was already stated-we can always help the survivors rebuild-no reason for us to die because of this outbreak.
All travel has to be banned-all of it-no one from the outbreak area allowed to enter the USA.
Something other things to think about. Bad as the mortality rate for ebola is, if /when it gets loose here, it is just the start.
ReplyDeleteCholera, typhoid, and the other sanitary diseases will follow, and who will tending farms, and nuke power stations. Famine, and fallout, to add to any survivors woes.
What do we do when the outbreak has spread to every place outside 'mericuh? Keep 'em all out?
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeletehttps://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/West_Africa_Ebola_2014_3_cum_case_death_by_country_lin.png
Robin,
ReplyDeleteWe can blow that bridge up when we come to it.
"
ReplyDeleteIf I had a place in the mountains-I would be packing my shit right now-just to have it ready to go at a moment's notice."
My Jeep and Dodge Ram have been packed and ready to 'head for the hills' for what....the last 3 years?
Tents, food, cooking gear, weapons, clothing...(former Marine '76 to 79').
I've been charting the numbers for the past few months, and I've watched the new cases per day number pretty closely.
ReplyDeleteIt jumps around a lot, so I usually look at the average over the past three reporting periods.
With this latest updated by Liberia, that spikes my smoothed value to 206 new cases per day - up from the 130's over the past three reports.
And, of course, that's just based on the official numbers.
The assholery is strong with this one at Wikipedia: an editor named "Widefox" has been stubbornly adamant in preventing prominent linkage to Wikipedia's outbreak article from any of the encyclopedia's other Ebola-related articles.
ReplyDeleteIt's almost as if a "ringer" were in play to keep people ignorant.
-- If anyone has a Wikipedia account, er, you know what to do.
See also the conversation on the associated Talk page.)
1. As several folks mentioned, this latest number represents catch-up by Liberia - of their official numbers.
ReplyDelete2. We all know, and so does anyone paying attention, that these cases are likely only 40% - 50% of the true number.
3. That we are now at 25K - 30K cases in reality is scary as Hell...but will be looked upon as a fond memory by year end.
4. The simple fact that we are busy building 1700 beds for what will be 10s of thousands of patients is bordering on the absurd, and not only because of the numbers of patients, but because there simply won't be enough healthcare workers to do so. That all of our work will be for nearly nothing shows the insanity, of keeping 3000 of our people there, exposed.
5. All of the above is both scary as Hell and obvious to anyone with sense. Far more scary is that those at the highest levels of our political system and medical establishment not only don't find these facts obvious, but are invested in denying them for as long as possible.
That sounds great, but absent how suddenly Liberia found an extra 1000 corpses laying about that they forgot to count, what this truly is, is anyone's guess.
ReplyDeleteI've taken it as a given that the real numbers were 2-3 times worse than what they tallied.
So in that light, adding 2000 cases all at once doesn't improve their credibility, because it moves the expected real number up by 6000 cases. IOW, telling us 12K instead of 10K doesn't mean much if it's somewhere north of 30K either way, does it?
What it absolutely proves is that their accounting of cases and casualties is totally goat-screwed, that their credibility is shot, and that things on the ground are so bad they cannot even count it with any accuracy whatsoever.
That's a sign that whatever semblance of governmental control they had is slip-sliding away. And that next will be any semblance of civic order itself.
Liberia must have taken Common Core and their math had a rounding error.
ReplyDeleteNurse MeMe apparently decided that she would do two days of isolation.
I was unaware the North Pole had relocated to Maine, but I miss all sorts of things on the news these days.
I have to ask........if we (me specifically, you perhaps) know our government to be corrupt & liars from beginning to end, why, oh why do we continue to believe in this latest psyop? They are not our friends, they pass endless unconstitutional "laws" that they do not deign to even read and defecate on those they claim to represent. Many of us realize that the endgame to these pretend pandemics is medical martial law, total disarmament, and full compliance with being injected with their poisons that WILL produce something horrific. And yet we still give these Devils ANY credibility whatsoever?
ReplyDeleteAnd your evidence that this is just a "psyop" and a "pretend pandemic" is...?
ReplyDeleteAnd that there really aren't 13,000 or 40,000 cases and 5000-15,000 dead people in Africa?
And that tens of thiousands of foreign nationals, aid workers, volunteers, doctors, nurses, media workers, everyone, is all in on the joke, but keeps the lid on it is based on...?
If you want a serious answer, start with a serious premise.
Ebola is a real disease.
It's killing real people.
It's a real problem.
Now ask yourself knowing that series of truths, how it would be possible for it to get here.
Then postulate that this administration is maliciously stupid and recklessly overconfident in their abilities to manage things, and ask yourself why it took six years for something like this to happen.
Stupid people doing stupid things get stupid results.
This whole thing is no more difficult to explain than the results of letting actual Homer Simpsons run real nuclear power plants: the result would be gravity, working as designed.