tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post9070913211744555002..comments2024-03-28T11:58:42.109-07:00Comments on Raconteur Report: Do The Math, 2019 versionAesophttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-42714877411601110892019-06-29T02:15:13.614-07:002019-06-29T02:15:13.614-07:00The Marxist ideal of open borders is embraced b/c ...The Marxist ideal of open borders is embraced b/c the belief now is no one should escape, that anybody suffering anything anywhere should be shared by white populations everywhere. This this is not a flaw or unintended consequence of open borders, it's in fact a feature, an intended aspect, essentially their raison d'etre. It's not even malicious, it's just part of our new, dumbed-down, cultural Marxist worldview. I kept thinking of the first few episodes of Season 1 of The Walking Dead, minus the zombies of course. Exponential disease vectors are fairly common when you get sustained clusters of risk factors, as is the case now. In 2030 the USAs population stands at under a million. Totally possible & plausible, with a probability of maybe 60%.Stephen J Carterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14250355497674756363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-29018305490592806052019-06-22T20:22:28.915-07:002019-06-22T20:22:28.915-07:00Aesop,
At your suggestion, I trotted over to Wiki...Aesop,<br /><br />At your suggestion, I trotted over to Wikipedia to read what they had to say about EVS (Shoot me, I'm lazy so I clicked on Wiki instead of a more reliable source.) Imagine my amazement to discover this:<br /><br />"Another aspect of survivors of the Ebola virus, is that it could become sexually transmitted, as the virus is present in semen nine months after the individuals are declared free of Ebola.[13] A 2017 study found the virus in the semen of some men after more than two years following the recovery from the acute infection.[14]"<br /><br />Holy shit. Or, maybe Unholy shit. Perhaps male survivors should be required to undergo bilateral orchiectomy? A mere vasectomy might not suffice.RegTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-81120910085318758402019-06-16T11:01:14.061-07:002019-06-16T11:01:14.061-07:00@Anonymous Simpleton,
You win.
I finished my erra...@Anonymous Simpleton,<br /><br />You win.<br />I finished my errands early, so here's your prize:<br />All your considered wisdom, posted on the front page where everyone can see it.<br /><br />Thanks a pantload!<br /><br />https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/06/dunning-kruger-why-dumbass-next-door.htmlAesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-80014319187899832812019-06-16T08:23:12.343-07:002019-06-16T08:23:12.343-07:00In africa, they don't have 3 million people co...In africa, they don't have 3 million people counting on truck drivers to deliver tomorrows groceries. Or 9 million. They don't have a large percentage who would die without daily or weekly meds, which aren't stocked locally, and can't be stockpiled by individuals. Their supply chain looks completely different.<br /><br />They don't riot if their favorite sports team wins, let alone if the stores are closed for a week.<br /><br />Since you sound like you work for the CDC, the patronizing attitude that the people need to be kept from panicking annoys the HELL out of those of us with better than room temperature IQ and the motivation to take care of ourselves. I suggest reading your own CDC guidelines on Business Continuity and Pandemic Flu. Ask yourself the same questions they ask, like, can your business survive with only 50 of people coming to work? Then ask if modern western society can survive if only 50% of people go to work. <br /><br />Having been thru civil collapse (Rodney King riots in LA), terror attack (I was 8 miles from ground zero on 9-11), and a variety of natural disasters (Rita, Ike, Harvey)- the thread that holds our society together is thin and strained.<br /><br />Airline pilots for some airlines can rightly be fired for lying to passengers about the severity of any issue. This is the way it should be. Treat people as adults. Don't lie to me. The pushback when your lies are exposed, and the CDC DID NOT COVER ITSELF WITH GLORY IN 2014, will be worse than the truth.<br /><br />nick<br /><br />Also, nit picking over one idea (where the reservoir is) is a great but tired tactic to distract from the bigger issue. If this gets here, we are not prepared and people will die. Let them panic! What do you expect them to do? Run out and stock up on food? Close the border? Quarantine arriving flights??? HOW IS ANY OF THAT A BAD THING?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-88651355333326894882019-06-16T07:03:09.741-07:002019-06-16T07:03:09.741-07:00You're going to fix that with tents?
It isn...<i>You're going to fix that with tents?</i><br />It isn't a panacea, but it will offer more than your asserted 15 total beds in the entire CONUS capable of handling ebola patients. <br /><br /><i>Genius, pal. Call the Pentagon, and tell 'em you've cracked the whole problem, all by yourself, because all we needed to do was pitch more tents all along.</i><br />They already know. People have been handling deadly chemicals in airtight tents and hazmat suits for decades, on a regular basis (sometimes 12 hour shifts....unlike Africa they have access to cooling suits).<br />Anyway, done here. <br />I won't post again, don't worry. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-89601050983286760222019-06-16T06:33:19.436-07:002019-06-16T06:33:19.436-07:00If you look at the population charts of countries ...If you look at the population charts of countries hit by ebola in Africa, ebola was barely a blip. <br />So asserting the odds of living on if the US is struck by the virus are 1 in 35,000,000 just undermines your own credibility. <br />The problem with such absurd assertions about the sky falling and world ending is...the next time people take them less seriously. And the next even less. <br />Until they stop worrying and become cavalier.<br />Your information, though largely correct (like: isolation precautions in medical facilities leave a lot to be desired, and ebola is very very very bad), is filled with half truths and hyperbole that push it into the land of the absurd. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-22630745048787647462019-06-16T05:28:40.220-07:002019-06-16T05:28:40.220-07:00This is easy folks, they dont ever plan on having ...This is easy folks, they dont ever plan on having enough hazmat suits and such.<br />When it begins to get bad they will simply begin cordoning off infected cities and<br />giving them the Dresden treatment. Fire bombing would be much more fun and effective.Gray Bellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12207495768048421348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-9877803715567802762019-06-15T17:12:03.354-07:002019-06-15T17:12:03.354-07:00Fucking brilliant!
And can you also squat and shi...Fucking brilliant!<br /><br />And can you also squat and shit out double the number of trained personnel to care for them? Doctors, nurses, ancillary staff, lab techs, clean up crew, everyone? And also shit out twice the supplies necessary to care for them? Another eight tons worth of exposure suits alone, just for 15 more patients? Not to mention medicines, IV fluids, tubing, bedding and linen, and so on?<br /><br />No...? Can't do that?<br /><br />Did you figure they were going to treat <i>themselves</i>?<br />Or that the isolation room magically cures people?<br /><br />So much for <i>that</i> great idea.<br /><br />Bush people in sub-Saharan Africa infected with the virus manage a 10-20% survival rate, not 50%. So will we, with similar levels of medical treatment options for the other 349+M people.<br /><br />So <i>if</i> it infected everyone, only 280,000,000-315,000,000 people here would die outright.<br /><br />The rest of the survivors, all 35,000,000-70,000,000 or so, would only have Ebola Virus Syndrome, which side affects include eventual blindness, along with perpetual headaches, joint pain, and a host of other debilitating problems.<br /><br />And they'll have 280,000,000+ corpses to dispose of.<br />But highway traffic will be lighter, so there's that.<br /><br />Ebola will also probably become endemic to wildlife species on this continent as well, so we could look forward to additional regular outbreaks, forever, without having to wait for another batch to get imported from Africa.<br /><br />You're going to fix that with tents?<br /><br />Genius, pal. Call the Pentagon, and tell 'em you've cracked the whole problem, all by yourself, because all we needed to do was pitch more tents all along.<br /><br />I've only posted somewhere in the neighborhood of 200+ blog posts on this problem in the last 6 years.<br />You've skimmed one, and hurt yourself trying to digest it.<br /><br />Stop thinking now, before you sprain your head.<br />That was really the most embarrassingly stupid pair of posts anyone has ever put up here, in the history of this blog.<br /><br />No, really.<br /><br />Walk tall.<br />And please, keep your thoughts to yourself.<br />Entertaining as it will be to people for days afterwards, I really don't like kicking the retarded kids; it just looks bad.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-49248785522563045802019-06-15T15:09:09.469-07:002019-06-15T15:09:09.469-07:00Aesop,
So the bush people in subsaharan Africa so...Aesop, <br />So the bush people in subsaharan Africa somehow manage a fifty percent survival rate, but if it makes it to the US we're looking at a survival rate of essentially zero. If everyone in the US is infected, only ten people will remain on the continent. <br />That sound about right to you?<br /><br /><i>15 people will get those beds.<br />Everyone else will get Jack, and Shit.</i><br /><br />I have a magical formula that will double the number of those beds. Roll more into the isolation rooms. <br />There are also things called tents...marvelous inventions. <br />Good grief. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-25941940840409723132019-06-15T12:37:56.803-07:002019-06-15T12:37:56.803-07:00Nurses freak now because of bed bug and scabies pa...Nurses freak now because of bed bug and scabies patients. Not enough exit doors in my hospital.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-37358629818084084292019-06-15T10:03:07.793-07:002019-06-15T10:03:07.793-07:00Then you're suffering from dyscalculia, but I&...Then you're suffering from dyscalculia, but I'll explain it anyways.<br /><br />There are 350,000,000 people in the U.S., give or take.<br />There are 15 staffed BL-IV beds.<br /><br />15 people will get those beds.<br />Everyone else will get Jack, and Shit.<br />(That would be 349,999,985 people, if you're keeping a tally, who will be told "Best wishes" along with such sage medical advice as "Wash your hands" and "Cover your cough".)<br /><br />Once you get into a BL-IV bed, historically you have a 50-75% chance of survival.<br />Let's split the difference and call it 66%.<br />66% of 15 is 10. (But it could range from 7-12, historically.)<br />You thus have 10 chances out of 350,000,000, which reduces to a 1 in 35,000,000 chance of getting into one of those beds, and surviving.<br /><br />This is called fractions. <br />It's generally covered for most people in third or fourth grade.<br /><br />Unprotected and untreated, 80-90% of Ebola victims die.<br />Horribly.<br />"Surviving" for the other 10-20% isn't anything to write home about either.<br />Read up on Ebola Virus Syndrome.<br /><br />Short answer, don't <i>get</i> infected.<br />Stock up, and bunker in.<br /><br />Because if you get it, and your Case #16 or higher, you're not going to be treated, just farmed out to a death center, where you will die, and then incinerated.<br />Being dead already, you won't mind that last part.<br /><br />QEDAesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-78395560992238113382019-06-15T07:40:20.576-07:002019-06-15T07:40:20.576-07:00350,000,000 people live in the U.S.
We have, perha...<i>350,000,000 people live in the U.S.<br />We have, perhaps, 15 beds available to treat Ebola patients safely. As many as 50% of whom would live and survive the infection. 75% if you're really lucky.<br /><b>So your best odds in an Ebola outbreak if you become infected, are a 1 in 35,000,000 chance of survival.</b></i><br /><br />I'm to sure how you did the math there, but it's very very suspect. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-35923053313954188192019-06-15T05:30:29.373-07:002019-06-15T05:30:29.373-07:00I was in China last year, in Shenzhen, coming in t...I was in China last year, in Shenzhen, coming in through Hong Kong.<br /><br />LOTS of Africans in the "Ladies Market" that happens there - elbow to elbow shopping with tourists from all over the world. A fair number of Africans working as manual labor setting up stalls. People from the middle east too... doubtless going back home now and again.<br /><br />In the Shenzhen area proper, very crowded. Factories were shoulder to shoulder with workers, many of whom live in company housing 6-8 in an apartment.NITZAKHONhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04110716447757507226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-30468720637702610912019-06-15T00:20:13.372-07:002019-06-15T00:20:13.372-07:00@nick
Too long for comments.
You, sir, get a post...@nick<br /><br />Too long for comments.<br />You, sir, get a post.<br /><br />https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/06/where-problem-is.html<br /><br />Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-53498198111385197082019-06-14T21:03:14.098-07:002019-06-14T21:03:14.098-07:00Assuming you guys are correct about Ebola, one pla...Assuming you guys are correct about Ebola, one place it will definitely show up is in China. China is the biggest investor and trading partner with Africa now, with several million Chinese living on the continent. I'm sure there are lots and lots of flights between various Chinese and African cities every single day. China is now very urbanized, with most people living in the fancy high-rises that have been built all over the country in recent years. To top it off, there are at least 200,000 African living in the "chocolate" towns (Africa towns) of Guangdong (Shinchu, Hing Kong, etc) province of Southern China. Most of China has long, hot summers with drippy, humid weather.<br /><br />Chinese people can be messy. They do intense horticulture where they raise pigs and chickens in close proximity to each other. I also read somewhere that pigs can carry Ebola (but not die from it) as well as dogs.<br /><br />BTW, the Chinese have slaughtered 30% of their pigs (about 200 million) in the last couple of months in an effort to get rid of some African pig disease that showed up about 6 months ago.kurt9https://www.blogger.com/profile/02101147267959016924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-42332223495848178522019-06-14T19:24:27.642-07:002019-06-14T19:24:27.642-07:00Aesop, you know I'm with you on this topic, an...Aesop, you know I'm with you on this topic, and I've been adding to my long term bulk food storage every two weeks...<br /><br />But, the MSF guys are all volunteers, and they not only go to work, but do so at a loss financially. <br /><br />Most africans are not particularly diligent or methodical but they seem to manage the deconn, donning and doffing reasonably well.<br /><br />Given the conditions on the ground in this and the last outbreak, how can we reconcile what you (and I for that matter) expect, with the lived experience of the medical teams in africa? After all, there are LOTS of Drs and staff involved, and no or few reported deaths among staff, and none among the Drs.<br /><br />I don't think the vaccine is the difference because we didn't have widespread losses among the foreign Drs and staff last time around either. (the one nurse iirc, and that from a social engagement not work)<br /><br />I agree that it's the knock on effects that would be so devastating here or other first world countries due to the dependence on infrastructure and Just In Time delivery.<br /><br />We also have the experience in Dallas of the guys POWER WASHING the index patient's effluvia off the walk, and the patient's own family who were closeted with him in the apartment, yet none of them got sick.<br /><br />Is it <i>possible</i> that it's harder to spread this than we think? It can't be luck every time....<br /><br />nick<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-27538789206433527122019-06-14T19:02:32.241-07:002019-06-14T19:02:32.241-07:00Interesting tidbit that fits in with this topic - ...Interesting tidbit that fits in with this topic - https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/nurse-who-contracted-ebola-gives-birth-to-twins/ar-AACSR9F?ocid=spartanntp<br /><br /><br />Ebola scares the life out of me. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-84006375292339554212019-06-14T18:55:59.111-07:002019-06-14T18:55:59.111-07:00One note. Nurse number two travelled WITH the perm...One note. Nurse number two travelled WITH the permission of the CDC via airline. 100 degree fever did not quite tip scale to real fever.thomasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-49004857127225816352019-06-14T14:48:28.096-07:002019-06-14T14:48:28.096-07:00Can we even count on our government to shut the ai...Can we even count on our government to shut the airports? Obama played tiddlywinks with everyone's lives back in 2014. What would Trump (or possibly Biden) do? Commerce is all-important, y'know. Can't possibly live w/o that plastic shit from China or grapefruit from Bolivia.<br /><br />And that's not to mention our southern border. Who has the guts to send the army with enough artillery to simply gun down anyone who dares to cross? I don't think Trump does. Annabel Leehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08697832836937365513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-42718326201470357122019-06-14T13:36:13.924-07:002019-06-14T13:36:13.924-07:00The training is only to reduce panic, not save any...<i>The training is only to reduce panic, not save any lives, and keep people from running, screaming, for the hills.</i> <br /><br />So that those trained people drive methodically and calmly to Bumfuck, and don't endanger either themselves or anyone else along the way. <br /><br />SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-66097928230379330642019-06-14T13:27:11.974-07:002019-06-14T13:27:11.974-07:00@McChuck
As harsh as it may seem CONTAINMENT rathe...@McChuck<br />As harsh as it may seem CONTAINMENT rather than "care" (utilizing those facilities already in place for the illegal immigrant pets) is the best course of action. These isolation units are just for show requiring great financial and personal expense to operate them. Ridiculous! <br /><br />The greatest danger (besides .gov) will be family members unable to accurately access risk, who are compelled to go to work and send their children to school because like, the school hasn't closed down yet. Most people are woefully unprepared to shelter in place for a few days without going stir-crazy (hey, let's go out to eat!) much less months or even a year. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-62477974812612015192019-06-14T11:31:35.330-07:002019-06-14T11:31:35.330-07:00Chance of dying of Ebola if infected - 66%.
Chance...Chance of dying of Ebola if infected - 66%.<br />Chance of dumbass management by the fed.gov of an Ebola outbreak in CONSUS - 100%.<br /><br />Aesop nails it. The situation in Dallas should be studied by every healthcare provider in the US as an example of chaos theory as it applies to healthcare. What can go wrong, will. The term "cascading failure" doesn't even begin to describe it. What happened in the hospital was only the 1st order effects. There was a ripple effect to the entire community (2nd and 3rd order effects). What happens to the other patients in the hospital? To the offices of the providers and businesses near the hospital? Do you think you are going to get deliveries to a hospital with an Ebola outbreak? To the gas stations or grocery stores near the hospital? And so on.<br /><br />We are not seeing that so much in the Congo because, well it is the Congo, and there is no infrastructure to speak of. The bush can conceal a whole lotta of failure.<br /><br /><br />Now Ebola has been reported in Uganda, another garden spot. Kenya is right next door and both countries rely heavily on tourism for their foreign currency to survive. Gee, where do most of those tourists come from? US and Europe and Australia. <br /><br />Ebola in the Jet Age, goona be epic.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br />Hope@ZeroKelvinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-7371595794860052852019-06-14T10:35:34.056-07:002019-06-14T10:35:34.056-07:00@George True:
Not paranoid at all IMHO.
More to ...@George True:<br /><br />Not paranoid at all IMHO.<br /><br />More to the point: remember that many of TPTB believe that "climate change" is an existential threat - not just to the human race, but to the biosphere in its entirety.<br /><br />Now let's KNOW THE ENEMY: Imagine you actually believed this. Believed, truly, in your heart that modern industrial civilization was threatening ALL LIFE ON EARTH. What would you NOT do to stop it?NITZAKHONhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04110716447757507226noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-26227020000770625382019-06-14T09:33:59.573-07:002019-06-14T09:33:59.573-07:00@Rocco,
1) Sincere thanks again for that bloglink...@Rocco,<br /><br />1) Sincere thanks again for that bloglink.<br />That was pure gold.<br /><br />2) Re:2014 Pure, dumb luck.<br />No one else has <i>ever</i> offered any better explanation of things.<br />WHO <i>never</i> met any of their containment goals in W. Africa in 2014. Not one.<br />So apparently, it simply killed off all the stupid people, and burned out.<br /><br />If Duncan had infected a few more people in 2014, we wouldn't have been able to treat the infected ones in BL-IV containment (which was the only other thing that stopped Dallas at 3 cases, total), and in a few weeks to months, the U.S. would have been exactly like Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone. Just more zeros after the body counts.<br /><br />But not being African dirt poor, the epidemic would have crossed continents and oceans, and we would have had hundreds of outbreaks.<br /><br />As it is, one of the two nurses infected (the second one) travelled out (and back, IIRC) on commercial air from Dallas and back while infectious, so the fact that she didn't pass it on to fellow travelers or flight crew was also just happenstance.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-60552663948323854752019-06-14T08:41:22.405-07:002019-06-14T08:41:22.405-07:00Wow-just wow. When my mom was a nurse in the 60...Wow-just wow. When my mom was a nurse in the 60's, 70's & 80's-oncology was considered the worst trick. Cancer didn't see a lot of cures then, so you knew you were taking care of people who didn't have a lot of upside. This...........is every medical personnel's worst nightmare! You are correct in oh so many ways: first, once this jumps into the public, no one is going into the hospital to provide care. Believe me, when my mother took care of infectious patients, I knew to stay away until she came home, scrubbed in the shower, put her clothes into a HOT water wash, and felt she was disinfected for her family. She even sprayed her shoes with Lysol and stuck them outside to "air" out. My father was required to put "garage" clothes on, and spray the car up with Lysol. Then those clothes went into the same hot water wash. That protocol seems almost quaint. I can't imagine taking care of an Ebola patient, decontaminating at the hospital, coming home in "clean" clothes to embrace my 3 yro. Um.....no. I am so angry at the politicians in this country that willfully expose all of us to this insanity. Thanks for your reality checks. Stealth Spanielnoreply@blogger.com