We commented on this at the time, but let it lay. Wholly apart from the facts of why and how it was totally unnecessary and entirely superfluous for Ukraine to get USN help in sinking Moskva (and let's face it, the ham-fisted "explanations" of how the Ukes didn't do it by Russia sound less convincing than your five year old's story about the man who came in the window and tore the house up, then ran away before Mom and Dod got home), Russia has a much bigger problem regarding their Black Sea Fleet.
The Ukrainian Neptune missile system is a monstrously huge pain in their ass, going forward.
The entire US and allied militaries, with ten times the combat and intelligence resources of the current Russian Army on their best day, couldn't stop Saddam from dropping SCUD missiles in Israel during GW I, try as they might. Two different Special Forces teams, one Brit SAS, and one US Army SF, in epic tales, were compromised and beaten to doll rags trying to hunt down those launchers.*
In a country that's mostly pool-table flat, and barren as the arctic tundra.
The Iraqis evaded the entire US Air Force and American and Brit satellite surveillance, combined. They hid the TEL trucks in wadis under bridge culverts, FFS.
The Uke Neptune system is far easier to hide, in a country far less amenable to recon and air strikes than western Iraq was in 1990.
We dedicated whole air squadrons to doing nothing but SCUD hunting, back when our Air Farce, even just in-country in Saudi, was yuuuuuuuge. And hit damned near nothing for our trouble.
Vlad's got a serious problem on his hands.
If you're wondering, here's the Neptune Danger Zone in the Black Sea, in orange:
All that area, at minimum, can be hit with Neptune missiles fired from land that Ukraine controls.
That means that Russian warships can be hit almost as soon as they sail out of their home port at Sevastopol.
The only limiting factors are naval over-the-horizon (OTH) intelligence, and the supply of Neptune missiles available to Ukraine.
At the equivalent of $500K@, you want to hit capital ships with them, not patrol boats.
That'd be cruisers and destroyers.
And if Russia pulls those ships outside that fan to safety, they've effectively given up on naval support, and the Black Sea Fleet is a non-issue for Ukraine, UFN. In chess, that's losing a castle or two, in the opening moves.
And if the Ukrainians are the sneaky little shits they've been so far, they bait a couple of decoy launchers, and wait to bushwhack the attacking Russian aircraft when they show up.
In warfare, when properly conducted, there are no fair fights; you want to be the hunter going after baby harp seals with a club.
This is what winning actually looks like when your enemy is not ready for prime time.
*(Side note: both teams were compromised by kids herding goats, much like the SEAL team two decades later in Lone Survivor. You'd think in twenty years' time, someone in special forces would have learned that lesson, and come up with TTPs and ROEs for dealing with nosy kids stepping on your recon team, but you'd obviously be wrong there.)
Word is two more Russian generals just bought it near Kherson, among the 50-odd claimed casualties at the command post.
ReplyDeleteAlso US DoD estimates that Ukrainian tanks now outnumber Russian ones.
Anybody saying "Russia will obviously win eventually" is just not living on this planet. This war is going to shatter the Russian military and may well shatter Russia itself.
The amazing thing is that if Vladimir Putin had, on or about February 15th or so, said "Screw this world leader stuff, I'm tired and I'm retiring. Good luck and God bless" he'd be one of the great men of history. But with one move, he took everything he'd worked for, for 20 years, and threw it away all at once.
Suggestions for ROE/TTP in regards to kids encountered? Not asking to be a smart-ass; this is something we wrestled with and never solved.
ReplyDeleteBoat Guy
The army had a protocol for it during the fun in Central America but it bothered the conscience of higher ups...
DeleteIn war, folks get killed. Some folks need killin'; some we would rather not have made dead are dead regardless. War is a lot of things, most of 'em are not good. Sad that non-combatants get their shit mixed, but it is a war, for fuck's sake. This country did not become pussified overnight, it took a while for young men to choose girl clothes and video games instead of deer hunting, duck hunting, hockey, fast cars...
DeleteAnyway, sorry that folks die in a war, glad back in the early '70s i wasn't one of 'em. And war is coming to a neighborhood near you. Harden your hearts, sharpen your hatchet, ready your mind. Do not overly concerned yourself with Ukraine, you're gonna a be a busy guy here soon. And, as for anonymous posting, I'm the original Grandpa and have posted as such for 13 years.
The best avenue for the Russians to stop this threat would be to hit their surveillance... given their recent performance, I doubt they'll be very successful at that!
ReplyDeleteSome years after the events of Bravo Two Zero, I was taking graduate level military history classes, and the issue of what to do about the kids that spotted the SF team came up for discussion. My professor was an ex Army officer with Korean War and early Vietnam experience.
ReplyDeleteMy view at the time was that killing the kids would have been the best option, with the idea of American lives being more important than those of foreign civilians. These days, I confess that I don't know what I would have done if I was one of those team leaders. Thank the Lord I've never had to make any decision of that type, and these days, I am reluctant to kill or hurt any living creature(though there are some politicians and such that I would...).
I've even been known to let a mosquito biting me finish her meal and let her fly away unmolested.
@Boat Guy,
ReplyDeleteThat was a parenthetical aside. But more thoughts to come in a future post. Stay tuned.
I'd get into it now, but I have lives to save.
Remember how the Russians were going to seal off the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant and starve out the Ukrainians? That lasted a day. They are back to throwing troops at it, trying to overrun the remaining defenders. Was it all a propaganda feint by Putin for the West?
ReplyDeleteISW reports that beaten and mauled Russian units are being moved to the Donbas and immediately thrown right back into the battles. No rest, no refit, no integration of the replacement soldiers. Earlier reports said the individual replacement soldiers included Libyan and Syrian Soldiers, not trained Arab Units. I wonder if the individual replacements also include Ossetians and Abkhazians?
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-23
Others report the Russian replacement equipment drawn from reserve stores is too often broken and useless. That was what the Ukrainians experienced in 2014 when Russia invaded the first time. Apparently one side learned from their defeat, and from their war to reclaim the rebellious Ukrainian Donbas provinces from 2014 to February 2022. The training and war the Ukrainian soldiers participated in since 2014 seems to have made their reserve/ territorial guard forces much better.
I wonder if one reason the Russians abandoned the Kiev, Chernihiv, and Sumy attacks was because the Ukrainian speaking, Ukrainian stay behind forces were making their REMF Russian lives too dangerous? Most of the Ukrainian territory that Russia is currently holding seems to be Russian speaking Ukraine?
RD
There's nothing like a long, useless war for bringing about regime change.
ReplyDeletePeople don't like losing, and tend to take it out on their leaders.
In a democratic government, you can at least vote the bastards out. If voting is not an option, then people typically turn to shooting the bastards.
And if that becomes a thing, that government has lost, even if they are able to squeeze out a victory against their own people. It's the political equivalent of major cancer treatment- even if the patient survives, they're still weak and compromised.