tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post8055319118210796891..comments2024-03-28T11:58:42.109-07:00Comments on Raconteur Report: But...WHY?Aesophttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-24232077995729319652018-05-17T21:35:58.476-07:002018-05-17T21:35:58.476-07:00I love the "math case" for experiencing ...I love the "math case" for experiencing violent rebellion in our lifetimes, both the one linked to and the one Kurt Schlichter did. The problem is that both of them forgot one important thing: the OTHER revolutions in American History, one successful and the other unsuccessful. The first was Bacon's Rebellion in Virginia (1676) and the second the rebellion against Sir Edmund Andros in 1689, a part of the greater "Glorious Rebellion" taking place in England. Although separated by a dozen years, in many ways they are symptoms of the same issues, so I think we can treat them as one larger rebellion against Royal Authority. In any event, that adds a THIRD rebellion to the mix, and thus increases the likelihood of such an occurrence by, as my poor math skills recon it, one-third. Or, you do the math (I certainly won't, I'm a historian, not a hard-sciences kind of guy, unfortunately.) (If you want to really get into some fun, you can say that the JFK Assassination was a coup-d'etat, with the RKF and MLK assassinations being part and parcel of it, and the various rioting that accompanied those later events counting as a violent response to them. Or not. But it would suggest that at least one such event per century has been our historical norm, and the odds of one coming up in any given year increases dramatically.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-80995874215855692172018-05-17T16:32:28.408-07:002018-05-17T16:32:28.408-07:00"surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case"
..."surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case"<br /><br />It's fine as a "conversation starter" means to get people to think about the issue, but it's a grossly oversimplified model. <br /><br />The immediately obvious problem is the model treats the probability of an insurrection as uniform (constant) over time, which I would argue is untrue. If for the sake of discussion we take one year as the smallest time-increment over which "stuff" changes (or better to say that we base computations on a mean risk over 365-day intervals), IMNSHO the probability of things getting sporty is much higher in 2018 than it was in say 1978, or 1988, for example.<br />Mike_Cnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-85208428311918641302018-05-17T10:19:56.834-07:002018-05-17T10:19:56.834-07:00One case is just one case. No big deal.
It's ...<i><b>One case</b></i> is just one case. No big deal.<br /><br />It's when it starts morphing to two, four, eight, 16, 32 in a few weeks (like it <i>does</i>)that it starts getting dicey. In a city of >1M just improves the odds that it hops a plane to another continent before anyone's looking for it.<br /><br />If Dallas had gone to four or eight cases in 2014, it would've gotten away from us in the U.S., and we would've been off to the races.<br /><br />Jackasses with double-digit IQs forget that at the latter stage of the 2014 outbreak crisis, we had exactly <i>one</i> open BL-IV patient bed left, for the <i>entire</i> United States.<br /><br />After that, hospitals become ghost towns pretty quickly.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-45869833507846568682018-05-17T08:25:18.041-07:002018-05-17T08:25:18.041-07:00no thoughts on the Ebola case that was just confir...no thoughts on the Ebola case that was just confirmed in the city with more than 1 million people?FiftycalTXnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-42567659250629066382018-05-17T00:45:36.165-07:002018-05-17T00:45:36.165-07:00Timely, this popped up earlier this week:
http://g...Timely, this popped up earlier this week:<br />http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2018/05/lost.html<br /><br />Lost Kinship<br />I did a long interview with Jack Murphy and Ian Scotto for SOFRep Radio earlier this week (the first 45 m or so prominently features my staccato/machine/Boydian gun style of thinking/speaking).<br /><br />We talked about many of the topics I'm currently writing about in greater detail with The Global Guerrillas Report. Topics such as China's tyrannical social credit system, open source political parties (they have already rolled the Republican party and they are about to do it to the Dems), how moral warfare works online (shaming and naming, etc.), and modern Tribalization.<br /><br />In the last segment, we touched on something I haven't written much about yet: the potential for widespread civil conflict in the US and how that impacts our thinking on resilience.<br /><br />Why so pessimistic? It's becoming clear that the US doesn't have a shared narrative anymore. A narrative, combined with rituals and traditions, that provides us with us the basis of fictive kinship.<br /><br />A kinship, not based on DNA, that allows us to trust each other rather than as strangers/enemies.<br />A shared understanding of moral and ethical conduct (the soft elements that make it possible for a legal and regulatory system to work).<br />An understanding that we are better off together than apart.<br />Where did our fictive kinship go?<br /><br />We killed it. We didn't alter it, adapt it, or evolve it. We strangled it and the rising sociopolitical incoherence we are seeing is the result.<br /><br />The big question is whether we can survive the future without it? I suspect the answer to that is more no than yes. If that's true, it makes civil collapse a very viable future.<br /><br />Sincerely,<br /><br />John Robb<br /><br />PS: I'll be writing about the potential for civil conflict in the US and how that impacts our thinking on resilience in a future Global Guerrillas Report.<br /><br />https://sofrep.com/sofrep-radio/episode-350-the-implications-of-social-media-according-to-john-robb/RSRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-59046932058699647222018-05-16T20:20:04.536-07:002018-05-16T20:20:04.536-07:00Nice when the weak sisters self-identify. Keep dri...Nice when the weak sisters self-identify. Keep driving on, you are doing God's Work.<br />Found at Van Der Leuns under " Rifles in the dark"<br />" The ability to fight separates the murdered from the free".<br />You are offering people an opportunity for emancipation.<br />Boat GuyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-1949474433248006062018-05-16T15:39:43.933-07:002018-05-16T15:39:43.933-07:00Saw that earlier this week. It's been making t...Saw that earlier this week. It's been making the rounds.<br /><br />The only encouraging news is that all sorts of sites have stumbled onto the idea that there isn't going to be any Big Blue Wave in the mid-terms in November, for the same reason Shrillary wasn't really 98% likely to win in 2016.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-20566335613507725742018-05-16T13:49:25.599-07:002018-05-16T13:49:25.599-07:00This article makes persuasive reading, especially ...This article makes persuasive reading, especially the bit where he lists the factors that make up indications of a pending revolution/civil disorder etc.<br /><br />https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437<br /><br />Food for thought, eh?<br /><br />Phil BAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-73713739180567086612018-05-16T13:47:40.685-07:002018-05-16T13:47:40.685-07:00Keep it up. It has value. The system no longer w...Keep it up. It has value. The system no longer works for us. Protecting us/you is secondary to protecting "the system". We're in this alone. The veneer has worn off, gone are the days where we look out for each other or "to serve and protect" means anything today. I get it, now if I can only bring others to get it.<br /><br />Thanks Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-68251491191469436072018-05-16T11:28:14.432-07:002018-05-16T11:28:14.432-07:00thank you very much for your hard work.
May God bl...thank you very much for your hard work.<br />May God bless you and yours,1chotahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05447809553993449672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-66141149044315167962018-05-16T11:11:54.509-07:002018-05-16T11:11:54.509-07:00Your friend should wake up, get on his knees and t...Your friend should wake up, get on his knees and thank you profusely for the effort you are putting in to educate and train him on how to survive should "CWII/WW3/fire/flood/tornado/riots/economic collapse/pandemics" befall us. <br /><br />JJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-91516879843611643232018-05-16T10:31:06.247-07:002018-05-16T10:31:06.247-07:00I prefer to explain my reasons for being prepared ...I prefer to explain my reasons for being prepared with the parable of Little Red Riding Hood.<br /><br />Little Red Riding Hood has completed her walk to Grandma's and back. She is ready to sleep and is snuggled in bed. Before she drops off, she sighs and says: <br />"Oh, I was so lucky today! The Big Bad Wolf didn't eat me!"<br />The Wolf, prowling in the dark just outside, slinks up to the window. Having heard Little Red Riding Hood, he whispers back: <br />"Yes, you were lucky TODAY. But you must be lucky every single day. I only have to be lucky ONCE."<br /><br />I can be wrong a thousand times about CWII/WW3/fire/flood/tornado/riots/economic collapse/pandemics, but if I am right ONCE, and you're not ready, you're gonna have a really bad time. S18-1000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-81299600436937634372018-05-16T10:30:59.574-07:002018-05-16T10:30:59.574-07:00This information is making me recall that "Fa...This information is making me recall that "Far Side" comic where the kid has his hand raised.<br />"May I be excused, my brain is full."<br /><br />Okay, not really, but there is a lot of information, so I'm consuming it at a leisurely pace.<br /><br />AndrewAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-85310602981951764412018-05-16T08:23:35.850-07:002018-05-16T08:23:35.850-07:00Oh: Thank you for your syllabus and course outlin...Oh: Thank you for your syllabus and course outline. Shows a lot of work, and a lot of thought. I appreciate it. Reltney McFeenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-12273727872209066502018-05-16T08:22:24.462-07:002018-05-16T08:22:24.462-07:00Ref your correspondent's question: Why promulg...Ref your correspondent's question: Why promulgate this stuff? Because, you can be the guy who makes things happen, be the guy who watches things happen, or the guy who asks, puzzled, "what happened?"<br /><br />Being an ex street medic, watching the guys asking, "what happened" was the source of an endless stream of merriment. <br /><br />I do not want to be that source of merriment. Reltney McFeehttps://www.musingsofastretcherape.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-2074024366779292652018-05-16T08:20:55.159-07:002018-05-16T08:20:55.159-07:00My Teddy bear fits fine in a ruck, so I can still ...My Teddy bear fits fine in a ruck, so I can still shoot and have him along.<br />_revjen45Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-21594551438522047192018-05-16T07:38:08.507-07:002018-05-16T07:38:08.507-07:00Think of those people who love you. Now think of ...Think of those people who love you. Now think of how they screw you. Divorce, children disowning a parent or fighting over their possessions once dead, turning in your brother because he is the Unibomber. Now, think about all those people that don't like you, don't care if you live or die. They will screw you quicker and harder and more often. You have to trust someone, but always have a plan B with them. And forget all that horseapples about charity and compassion and being a white knight. Screw 'em all because that is their plan for you. Last one in the stewpot wins.James M Dakinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01382139289994087931noreply@blogger.com