tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post6855274423899398979..comments2024-03-28T00:38:49.562-07:00Comments on Raconteur Report: Surf's Up, BitchezAesophttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-12532493611820204532018-07-11T15:00:44.510-07:002018-07-11T15:00:44.510-07:00You're talking about the +/- for working Ameri...You're talking about the +/- for <i>working</i> Americans, who will be largely a wash. The millions now going back to work <i>for the first time since 2008</i> will see their situation improve vastly by contrast, and that, along with #Walkaway voters, promises that House races are liable to be unpleasantly surprising for Democrat candidates.<br /><br />At any rate, polls the other side of Labor Day, and of <i>likely</i> voters, are liable to be a bit more predictive of how things are going to go.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-38135013081269779852018-07-11T14:32:27.800-07:002018-07-11T14:32:27.800-07:00Rising gas prices, interest rates, and new import/...Rising gas prices, interest rates, and new import/export tariffs will likely offset any economic gains for the working and middle class. And Americans aren't cashing out on rising property values w/ home equity lines of credit either -- which means rising property values just mean rising property taxes. <br /><br />Point of this is that economy coupled with local issues is what typically determines the outcome of US House races -- historically in polling, a vast majority of Americans disapprove of Congress but approve of their specific representatives, because of those local issues/factors.<br /><br />If Democrats attempt to block Trump's most recent nominee, then there is an outside chance that the GOP retains control of the House. If they don't block and if Democrats focus resource on US House races instead of the Senate, and despite the somewhat rare (+~30%) GOP cash advantage, I still think it's likely that Democrats take the US House -- roughly about 3:2 - 2:1 odds in Democrats favor. But by prioritizing the House, they are also giving up some redistricting influence as well, so it makes it less certain that they'll focus intensely on the House, especially with no credible alternative to elderly Pelosi AFAIK. YMMV.RSRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-61544765916755385432018-07-10T20:49:50.083-07:002018-07-10T20:49:50.083-07:00I doubt they lose the House either, for the same r...I doubt they lose the House either, for the same reason the polls in 2016 had Shrillary winning in a walkaway, but it's certainly in play, and Quisling Ryan and his incompetent posse of bitch-RINOs have certainly done everything possible to lose it, from not killing ObozoCare to not funding the border wall, so if they manage to re-install senile Pelosi as Mumbler and Drooler In Chief, I won't be shocked.<br /><br />As noted in the post, it's still too early to say how solid anything is, but you'll note the talk of a blue wave has become as notable by its absence as talk of impeachment.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-23626478790436286412018-07-10T20:07:51.240-07:002018-07-10T20:07:51.240-07:00The GOP keeping control of the Senate is a near-ce...The GOP keeping control of the Senate is a near-certain. <br /><br />The GOP keeping control of the House is odds-against. <br />Gozales (former Rothenburg) has 68 GOP seats in play to 9 DEM: https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house<br /><br />Cook has 99 seats in play with 14 DEM and 85 GOP.<br />https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings<br /><br />Sabato I'm too lazy to count but they look about the same: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/<br />RSRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-8947578327521938502018-07-10T17:16:28.260-07:002018-07-10T17:16:28.260-07:00Different Venn circles, gospodin:
All communists ...Different Venn circles, <i>gospodin</i>:<br /><br />All communists are democrats, but all democrats aren't communists.<br />But with the #Walkaway movement in full swing, the ones who aren't are card-carrying communists are becoming independents and republicans.<br /><br />Boo frickin' hoo.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-714028479313834812.post-88223552127542007752018-07-10T17:11:47.889-07:002018-07-10T17:11:47.889-07:00democrats?!? let's just call them what they ar...democrats?!? let's just call them what they are: commiecrats.0007noreply@blogger.com